Reliance, Inc. research snapshot
RS AI stock analysis currently views Reliance, Inc. as a disciplined metals service center operator whose local processing, fast delivery, and decentralized branches support repeat business and higher margins than a simple commodity distributor. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, RS traded near $406.10 with a $20.73 billion market cap. Q2 2026 net sales rose 15.0% sequentially and 26.5% year over year to $4.63 billion, with record quarterly tons sold of 1,790.1 thousand tons, $6.29 diluted EPS, and $6.27 non-GAAP EPS. A U.S. border wall contract contributed $0.41 per share, and management guided third quarter non-GAAP EPS to $6.40 to $6.60. The tradeoff is that trailing earnings and cash flow remain exposed to metal prices, inventory timing, trade policy, end-market demand, border wall volume, and the price paid for acquisitions. At 23.68x TTM EPS and 38.43x TTM free cash flow per share, the stock now prices in strong execution, so upside depends on the cycle continuing.
Current price
$406.10
Market cap
$20.73 billion reported market cap, $20.73 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Record Q2 with border wall contract and strong pricing, but a cyclical earnings base and a valuation that now prices in strong execution
Trend status
Bullish, price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Reliance distributes and processes carbon steel, aluminum, stainless, alloy, copper, brass, titanium, and specialty metals for small orders that often require quick delivery and value-added work. | High |
| Moat | Local branch density, service speed, processing capability, customer relationships, a truck fleet, decentralized incentives, and acquisition scale provide advantages, though none remove commodity-cycle exposure. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Karla Lewis and the operating team delivered record second quarter tons, strong pricing, a border wall contract contribution, and continued capital returns through dividends and prior buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 3.3% to $14.29 billion while net income to common fell 15.5% to $739.4 million. Q2 2026 net sales rose 15.0% sequentially and 26.5% year over year to $4.63 billion, with record tons and diluted EPS of $6.29. | High |
| Valuation | At $406.10, financial_rigor.py calculates 23.68x TTM EPS, 2.80x book value, 38.43x TTM free cash flow per share, a 2.60% FCF yield, and a 1.23% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price near $406.10 sits above the 50-day moving average near $390.46 and the 200-day moving average near $330.43, with RSI near 58.43 and the stock near its 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because profitability depends heavily on metals pricing, inventory replacement costs, volumes, tariffs, trade policy, border wall volume, end-market demand, and a valuation above many traditional cyclical peers. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported facts and valuation arithmetic. Forecast confidence is medium because a modest change in price or gross margin can materially change earnings. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low at this price. Reliance can compound through service, acquisitions, and buybacks, but the share price near the 52-week high leaves less cushion for a weaker metal cycle. | Medium-low |
RS AI stock forecast
The RS AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 cutoff, a $406.10 share price, $17.15 TTM diluted EPS, and a three-year framework, financial_rigor.py produced valuation anchors of about $602 in a bull case, $408 in a base case, and $176 in a bear case before dividends.
$580 to $615
More likely if shipments and pricing remain firm, the U.S. border wall contract and other government awards convert into durable volume, gross margin holds near current levels, acquisitions add returns, buybacks continue, and investors sustain a premium multiple for execution.
$395 to $420
More likely if EPS grows around 6% annually, end markets stay healthy but normalize, metal pricing holds without a sharp inventory loss, the border wall project contributes as guided, and the market values RS near 20x earnings.
$170 to $195
More likely if metal prices fall faster than inventory costs reset, the border wall contract winds down without replacement volume, construction or manufacturing demand weakens, tariffs disrupt supply, margins compress, acquisitions disappoint, or the market rerates the stock toward a lower cycle-sensitive multiple.
RS AI technical analysis
RS AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed RS near $406.10, above the 50-day moving average near $390.46 and the 200-day moving average near $330.43, with RSI near 58.43, beta near 0.96, and average 20-day volume near 326,513 shares. The stock sits near its 52-week high of $419.83 after a strong second quarter.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $406.10 | July 31, 2026 close reference used for this static page and the market-cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $397 to $402 | The recent consolidation area near the July 31 low is the first zone to watch on a pullback. |
| Next support | $390 to $392 | The 50-day moving average near $390.46 marks the first trend support. |
| Deeper support | $330 to $332 | The 200-day moving average near $330.43 is the more meaningful intermediate trend support zone. |
| Near resistance | $410 to $420 | The recent high near $410.67 and the 52-week high near $419.83 are the next overhead hurdles. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $390.46, 200-day $330.43 | Price is above both averages, which supports the uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.43 | Momentum is positive but not overbought, leaving room for a push toward the 52-week high. |
| Volume | Average 20-day volume near 326,513 shares | A move above resistance should be evaluated against this baseline and the next earnings update. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.96 | Market-like beta can still understate the impact of steel prices, tariffs, border wall volume, earnings, or acquisition news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $390, then below $330 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day average near $330 would support the bear case. |
RS AI trading strategy
The RS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with the Q3 2026 earnings update, shipments, selling price per ton, gross margin, LIFO expense, border wall volume, working-capital cash flow, buybacks, acquisitions, debt, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RS to hold above the $390 to $402 zone and make progress toward $420 with volume near or above its normal baseline while earnings confirm shipment, pricing, and margin strength.
Treat a failed move followed by a close below $390 as a warning because the stock would lose its 50-day moving-average support.
If RS pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $390 without a material deterioration in shipments, prices, gross margin, border wall volume, or balance-sheet flexibility, compare the revised valuation with the base and bear scenarios.
Do not average down solely because the business is a consolidator. Confirm that inventory, replacement costs, metal prices, customer demand, and the border wall contract still support cash conversion.
Track Q3 2026 results, tons sold, average selling price per ton, gross margin, LIFO expense, cash flow, capital expenditures, buybacks, dividends, net debt, acquisitions, and the progress of U.S. border wall and other government contracts.
Lower the rating if gross profit or cash flow falls while the stock remains near a 20-plus trailing earnings multiple, or if acquisition or buyback spending grows without evidence of processing, customer, or geographic benefits.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Reliance for metal availability, processing, small-order service, local inventory, and fast delivery. These services reduce downtime and working-capital burden for fabricators, machine shops, and other industrial customers.
Reliance benefits from branch proximity, processing equipment, local customer relationships, its own delivery fleet, decentralized decision making, supplier relationships, and acquisition-built scale. The moat improves service economics but does not fix metal-price cyclicality.
The thesis fails if prices fall before inventory costs reset, the border wall contract winds down without replacement volume, volumes weaken, end markets contract, tariffs disrupt supply and demand, acquisitions overpay, gross margins compress, or buybacks occur at prices that do not leave enough return for shareholders.
Karla Lewis and the operating teams are judged on pricing discipline, local execution, acquisition returns, working-capital control, safety, buyback timing, dividend growth, and balance-sheet restraint through the steel cycle.
Reliance serves North American construction, manufacturing, aerospace, transportation, energy, semiconductor, and defense customers. Data centers, energy infrastructure, defense programs, border wall and government work, and reshoring can support demand, while the same markets remain cyclical.
At 23.68x TTM EPS and 38.43x TTM free cash flow per share, RS is not priced like a deep cyclical value stock. Margin of safety improves if the share price retreats while local service advantages, cash conversion, and capital allocation remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS quote reference and market capitalization | $406.10 price, $20.73 billion reported market cap, and 51.05 million shares outstanding. Pineify financial_rigor.py calculates a $20.73 billion market cap from price and shares. | StockAnalysis RS statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating update | $4.63 billion net sales, up 15.0% sequentially and 26.5% year over year; $322.9 million net income to Reliance; $6.29 diluted EPS; $6.27 non-GAAP EPS; record 1,790.1 thousand tons sold; and $2,602 average selling price per ton. | Reliance Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60, up 76% to 81% year over year, including about $0.60 per share from the U.S. border wall project and $1.10 per share of LIFO expense. | Reliance Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $14.294 billion revenue and $739.4 million net income to common. SEC filing and StockAnalysis agree on both values. | Reliance 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and cash flow | $15.81 billion revenue, $893.8 million net income to common, $17.15 diluted EPS, $851.5 million operating cash flow, and $539.5 million free cash flow for the twelve months through June 30, 2026. | StockAnalysis RS financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and shareholder returns | $235.4 million cash, $1.7 billion total debt, $3.4 billion of common stock repurchased since 2021, $63.8 million of Q2 dividends, and a $1.25 quarterly dividend declared for payment on August 28, 2026. | Reliance Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels and valuation inputs | 50-day moving average $390.46, 200-day moving average $330.43, RSI 58.43, beta 0.96, average 20-day volume 326,513, trailing PE 23.68, forward PE 17.12, and trailing P/FCF 38.43. | StockAnalysis RS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Hold consensus from 8 analysts with an average price target of $409.50, a low of $398, and a high of $425. | StockAnalysis RS forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Operating model and risk factors | Over 85 years of operating experience, about 310 locations, more than 125,000 customers, and about 40% of 2025 orders delivered within 24 hours. The company identifies metal-price, inventory-cost, tariff, trade-policy, and government-contract risk as material. | Reliance Q2 2026 results release and 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
This RS AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use public data available through the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if metal prices, inventory costs, demand, tariffs, trade policy, border wall volume, acquisitions, market sentiment, or company fundamentals change.
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