Rigetti Computing, Inc. research snapshot
RGTI AI stock analysis currently reads Rigetti Computing as a pure-play superconducting quantum computing company that reported a sharp Q1 2026 revenue rebound to $4.4 million (up 199% year over year) after FY2025 revenue fell 34% to $7.09 million. The stock closed at $14.95 on July 31, 2026, and roughly 332.4 million shares put the market capitalization near $4.97 billion. Rigetti held $418.25 million in cash and short-term investments at March 31, 2026, plus up to $100 million in potential CHIPS Act funding, but TTM free cash flow was deeply negative and share dilution continues. The RGTI AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$14.95
Market cap
$4.97 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Speculative quantum computing pure-play with a sharp Q1 2026 revenue rebound, government funding, and strong analyst backing, but deep losses, heavy dilution, and an extreme valuation
Trend status
Below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and sells cloud quantum access, on-premises systems, and collaborative research services. Revenue was lumpy, FY2025 fell 34% to $7.09 million, and Q1 2026 rebounded to $4.4 million, up 199% year over year. Operating economics remain deeply negative. | Medium |
| Moat | Potential differentiation comes from in-house superconducting chip fabrication, chiplet architecture, and the industry largest multi-chip quantum computer (Cepheus-1-108Q). The moat is unproven because IBM, Google, and well-funded startups compete across multiple qubit modalities. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Subodh Kulkarni brings semiconductor industry experience and has prioritized technology milestones, government funding, and the HPE and Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center collaboration. The main test is converting cash and contracts into durable revenue without excessive dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.09 million, down 34% from FY2024, with a $216.21 million net loss. Q1 2026 revenue rose 199% year over year to $4.4 million, and cash and short-term investments stood at $418.25 million at March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly $4.97 billion market value versus $10.02 million TTM revenue, RGTI trades near 480x trailing sales. No P/E is meaningful because earnings are negative. The stock trades near 8.5x book value. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and TradingView technicals read sell for the one-week and one-month horizons while oscillators sit near neutral. Beta is 1.96 (5-year) to 4.13 (1-year). | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high due to volatile revenue, negative free cash flow, equity dilution, technology competition, and an extreme revenue multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data, quote math, and analyst consensus. Low-medium for scenario analysis because quantum commercialization and customer adoption remain highly uncertain. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. Rigetti has cash, government funding, and improving Q1 2026 revenue, but deep losses, heavy dilution, and a speculative valuation make this a high-risk, early-stage quantum bet. | Low |
RGTI AI stock forecast
The RGTI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $14.95 July 31 close rather than a point target. Because RGTI has negative GAAP EPS, a mechanical P/E-based three-scenario calculation is not applicable. Instead, the scenarios below use revenue-growth and P/S assumptions informed by the 13-analyst consensus (average target $29.65) and available public data.
$25 to $40
More likely if Q2 through Q4 2026 revenue builds on the Q1 rebound, CHIPS Act funding and government contracts accelerate, the TangleLab and HPE work drives system sales, and the broader quantum sector re-rates higher. The consensus high analyst target is $40.
$14 to $25
More likely if revenue grows toward the FY2026 analyst estimate of $23.58 million, operating losses persist, dilution continues at a moderate pace, and the stock trades in a range between cash-adjusted value and development-stage multiples.
$8 to $14
More likely if revenue growth stalls, cash burn and dilution accelerate, the quantum sector keeps de-rating (peers fell about 30% in a month), or the stock breaks below the $12.53 52-week low.
RGTI AI technical analysis
RGTI AI technical analysis uses the $14.95 July 31, 2026 close as its starting reference. RGTI is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with very high volatility, and TradingView technicals read sell for the one-week and one-month horizons. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.95 | Yahoo Finance close on July 31, 2026, the latest available quote before the August 3 cutoff. |
| Near support | $13 to $14 | Late-July lows near $13.13 to $13.22. Buyers defended this zone on July 29. |
| Major support | $12.53 | The 52-week low. A sustained break below it would signal a technical breakdown. |
| Near resistance | $16 to $17 | The July bounce topped near $16.12 to $16.38 before fading. |
| Next resistance | $20 | A round-number hurdle that coincides with the June trading range. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $19 | Computed from the 50 most recent closes through July 31. The stock was trading below this level, indicating near-term bearish momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $25 to $30 | Estimated from the 52-week range and the year-to-date decline. A reclaim of this level would be a meaningful trend repair signal. |
| Momentum | Weak | TradingView reads sell for the one-week and one-month technical horizons, with moving averages in strong sell territory and oscillators near neutral. |
| Volume | About 16 million shares (recent) | Average volume near 38.8 million shares. Volume spikes on news and earnings events. |
| Volatility | Very high | Beta of 1.96 (5-year) to 4.13 (1-year). The 52-week range spans $12.53 to $58.15. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below $12.53 | A move below the 52-week low would signal a breakdown in the technical structure. |
RGTI AI trading strategy
The RGTI AI trading strategy is a framework for a volatile, early-stage quantum computing stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, stop levels, the August 6, 2026 earnings calendar, and live market data.
Wait for RGTI to reclaim and hold its 50-day moving average near $19 and then the $20 round number with above-average volume. Check whether Q2 2026 revenue and the cash-burn rate support the move.
A break below $13 or a disappointing August 6 earnings report should invalidate the setup. Keep position sizes small given extreme volatility.
If RGTI holds the $13 to $14 support zone, monitor whether Q2 results, contract wins, and CHIPS funding provide a catalyst for a rebound.
Do not average down purely because the price has fallen. Reassess if cash burn accelerates, dilution increases, or revenue guidance weakens.
Track quarterly revenue trajectory, cash and equivalents, share count, CHIPS Act milestones, government and HPE contract wins, and quantum system deliveries.
Reduce confidence if the FY2026 revenue trend does not improve, or if share-count dilution outpaces revenue growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rigetti for access to superconducting quantum computing systems, cloud quantum services, and collaborative research when they expect value from quantum algorithm development or specialized computation. Revenue is lumpy and concentrated in government and research customers.
Rigetti has potential differentiation in superconducting qubit design, in-house chip fabrication, and chiplet-based multi-chip scaling. The moat remains unproven because IBM, Google, and well-funded startups can rapidly narrow any lead.
The failure path is that Rigetti burns through its cash before reaching commercial quantum scale, that its superconducting approach is leapfrogged by other qubit modalities, or that dilution and lumpy revenue destroy value. FY2025 revenue fell 34%, and TTM free cash flow was negative about $82 million.
Management has secured CHIPS Act funding, the HPE and Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center collaboration, and strong analyst coverage. Capital allocation quality will be judged by how effectively the company converts cash and contracts into durable revenue.
Quantum computing is in a government-backed acceleration phase, with $2 billion in US CHIPS incentives and new executive orders, but commercial-scale value is likely years away. The trend is real; the timing is uncertain.
The share price embeds ambitious quantum-sector growth expectations. Near 480x trailing revenue, with negative free cash flow and heavy dilution, there is no traditional margin of safety even though analyst consensus implies upside to $29.65.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGTI price | $14.95 on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.97 billion, price times ~332.4M shares | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 332.4 million | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.09 million, down 34.3% from FY2024 | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | Negative $216.21 million | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $4.4 million, up 198.9% year over year | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 diluted EPS | Negative $0.06 | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $418.25 million at March 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Negative $81.65 million | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| CHIPS Act award | Up to $100 million (May 21, 2026) | NIST | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $29.65 from 13 analysts | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| TangleLab testbed deal | 9-qubit Novera system for Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, funded by a $5 million NSF grant (July 27, 2026) | GlobeNewswire / Rigetti Computing | August 3, 2026 |
This RGTI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if quantum technology progress, revenue trends, financial results, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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