IonQ, Inc. research snapshot
IONQ AI stock analysis currently reads IonQ as a fast-growing quantum platform that just became vertically integrated through its completed SkyWater foundry acquisition, with a large cash and investment balance, a growing contract base, and a broader computing, networking, sensing, and security strategy. The offset is a very high revenue multiple, continuing operating and free-cash-flow losses, material share dilution from the SkyWater share consideration, acquisition integration risk, and a technical setup below key moving averages. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest available quote was $36.44 at the July 31, 2026 close and the price multiplied by 373.27 million shares produced market capitalization near $13.60 billion. The IONQ AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$36.44
Market cap
$13.60 billion
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
High-growth quantum platform, speculative valuation, now verticalized via SkyWater
Trend status
Below 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | IonQ sells quantum computing access, systems, networking, sensing, and security solutions to commercial, academic, and government customers, and now owns a U.S. semiconductor foundry through SkyWater. Revenue is growing quickly from a small base but operating economics remain negative. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Potential differentiation comes from trapped-ion technology, systems integration, IP, cloud distribution, quantum networking assets, and the newly acquired SkyWater foundry. The moat is unproven because competing hardware approaches and technical roadmaps can change quickly. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi is directing an acquisition-led platform expansion. The key test is integrating SkyWater, turning technical assets and contracts into repeatable, economically attractive revenue, and limiting dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $64.7 million, up 755% year over year, while management guided FY2026 revenue to $260 million to $270 million and Q2 2026 revenue to $65 million to $68 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss guidance remained $310 million to $330 million. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly $13.60 billion of market value versus $187.12 million of trailing revenue, IONQ trades near 73x sales with a forward price-to-sales near 49x on 2026 estimates. TTM GAAP earnings are affected by non-operating fair-value movements and are not a dependable operating valuation anchor. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest available price was below the approximately $50.66 50-day and $46.30 200-day moving averages, with an RSI near 41, elevated volatility, and short interest near 12.6% of shares outstanding. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because commercial quantum demand, technical execution, SkyWater integration, cash burn, dilution, valuation, and government-contract timing can all move the share price sharply. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data and quote math. Medium for scenario analysis because the market is early, competitive, and sensitive to uncertain technology timelines. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. IonQ has visible growth and liquidity, but investors are underwriting a large share of future quantum-industry value before recurring profitability is demonstrated. | Low-medium |
IONQ AI stock forecast
The IONQ AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $36.44 July 31 quote rather than a point target. A mechanical financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation used $0.92 trailing GAAP EPS, 5% to 30% growth, and 20x to 60x P/E assumptions to produce three-year outputs near $21, $56, and $121. This is only a sensitivity exercise because the trailing GAAP result includes volatile non-operating fair-value items and IonQ remains loss-making on an adjusted EBITDA basis, so the page also anchors scenarios to the analyst price target band of about $45 low, $65 median, and $100 high.
$66 to $121
More likely if SkyWater adds manufacturing scale without disrupting margins, FY2026 revenue reaches the upper end of guidance, the $470 million remaining performance obligation base converts into revenue, and investors continue to accept a premium multiple.
$36 to $66
More likely if revenue grows near guidance but operating losses remain substantial, SkyWater integration is mixed in the near term, and the stock recovers only after it reclaims long-term technical levels.
$22 to $36
More likely if contract conversion or system deliveries slip, SkyWater dilution and integration costs weigh on results, cash burn and share issuance persist, or the market de-rates quantum computing equities.
IONQ AI technical analysis
IONQ AI technical analysis starts from the $36.44 July 31, 2026 close. Public technical data around the cutoff showed a 50-day moving average near $50.66, a 200-day moving average near $46.30, an RSI near 41.19, and average 20-day volume near 18.80 million shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.44 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot at the July 31, 2026 close, the latest available quote before the August 2 cutoff. |
| Near support | $34 to $36 | The recent trading area around the quote. A sustained break below it would leave price action dependent on the $25.89 52-week low for reference. |
| Near resistance | $43 to $46 | The 200-day moving average near $46.30 and overhead supply below it are the first trend-repair levels. |
| 50-day moving average | About $50.66 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. Treat it as an approximate reference rather than a trade trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | About $46.30 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. The latest available price was below this long-term reference. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | RSI was about 41.19 and price was below both moving averages. Reclaiming the 200-day average would be an initial repair signal. |
| Volume | About 18.80M average daily shares | StockAnalysis listed average 20-day volume around the cutoff. Moves around results or contract news can be unusually large. |
| Volatility | Very high | StockAnalysis listed beta of 3.30 and short interest of 12.60% of shares outstanding, which can amplify both drawdowns and rallies. |
| Invalidation | Failure below the $34 to $36 zone | A sustained failure below the current support area, especially with weaker guidance or contract conversion, weakens a trend-following thesis. |
IONQ AI trading strategy
The IONQ AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a volatile, early-stage quantum computing stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, the August 5 earnings calendar, and fresh market data.
Wait for IONQ to reclaim the roughly $46 200-day average and then the roughly $51 50-day average with volume. Check whether the move is supported by Q2 results, contract conversion, revenue guidance, and SkyWater integration evidence.
A break below the $34 to $36 support area or a guidance cut should invalidate the setup. Keep exposure small enough for high volatility.
If IONQ holds around the $34 to $36 zone, monitor whether price recovers the 200-day average while Q2 and FY2026 revenue guidance, RPO conversion, and cash use remain consistent with management disclosures.
Do not average down solely because the price falls. Reassess if cash burn accelerates, shares outstanding increase materially, or commercial milestones slip.
Track revenue by quantum hardware and platform services, RPO, commercial customer share, adjusted EBITDA loss, cash and investments, SkyWater integration, system shipments, and share count.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth is acquisition-dependent without improving unit economics, or if fair-value gains obscure continuing operating losses.
Investment research summary
Customers pay IonQ for access to quantum computing systems, specialized hardware, and related networking, sensing, and security capabilities when they expect value from quantum experimentation, research, or mission-oriented deployment. The SkyWater foundry adds a manufacturing and supply chain layer to that offering.
IonQ has potential technology and IP advantages in trapped-ion systems, chip development, cloud distribution, and quantum networking, now reinforced by SkyWater as the largest exclusively U.S.-based semiconductor foundry. The moat remains conditional because alternative quantum architectures, larger competitors, and unproven customer switching costs can narrow it.
The failure path is paying a large platform valuation before quantum workloads become repeatable commercial revenue. Delayed fault tolerance, slower customer adoption, SkyWater integration problems, dilution from the share consideration, or a technical lead that does not monetize would undermine the thesis.
Management is building a broader quantum platform through systems, networking, sensing, security, and the SkyWater acquisition. Capital-allocation quality depends on integration discipline, conversion of RPO into revenue, and limiting dilution while funding research.
Quantum computing may become an important long-term computing layer for selected applications, but commercialization timing is uncertain. Government, defense, research, and enterprise pilots, along with recent U.S. policy support, can create demand before broad production adoption.
The share price embeds ambitious growth and technology-leadership expectations. Net cash supports development, but negative free cash flow, a roughly 73x trailing-sales valuation, and dilution risk leave limited traditional margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ price | $36.44 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.60 billion, price times 373.27M shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 373.27 million before the SkyWater share consideration is reflected | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $130.02 million, up 201.85% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and outlook | $64.7 million revenue, 755% year over year; FY2026 guidance $260M to $270M; Q2 2026 guidance $65M to $68M | IonQ Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Remaining performance obligations | $470 million at Q1 2026, up 554% year over year | IonQ Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $3.1 billion at March 31, 2026, company cash, cash equivalents, and investments measure | IonQ Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| SkyWater acquisition | Completed July 31, 2026; $15.00 cash and 0.4883 IonQ shares per SkyWater share; reported near $1.8 billion | IonQ Form 8-K and Reuters | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow | Negative $401.19M operating cash flow and negative $423.66M free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with average price target $68.41, low $44.78, high $100, across 13 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $50.66, 200-day MA $46.30, RSI 41.19 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This IONQ AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if quantum technology progress, contract conversion, financial results, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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