D-Wave Quantum Inc. research snapshot
QBTS AI stock analysis reads D-Wave Quantum as the longest-standing pure-play quantum annealing company with a commercial cloud platform, meaningful cash reserves, and growing government and enterprise interest. The offset is a very high revenue multiple near 618x trailing sales, continuing GAAP net losses, modest absolute revenue of about $12.44 million TTM, and a technical setup reflecting the speculative nature of the sector. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest available July 10 quote was $20.64 and the price multiplied by roughly 370.4 million shares produced market capitalization near $7.65 billion. The QBTS AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$20.64
Market cap
$7.65 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Pre-revenue quantum annealing pioneer, highly speculative
Trend status
Below 52-week highs, elevated volatility
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | D-Wave sells quantum annealing systems, cloud-based quantum services via Leap, and hybrid solver solutions to commercial, government, and research customers. Revenue is growing but from a very small base, and operating economics remain deeply negative. | Medium |
| Moat | D-Wave has two decades of quantum annealing intellectual property, a live cloud platform, and early-mover credibility. The moat is conditional because gate-model quantum computing (IONQ, IBM, Google) or alternative architectures could address annealing use cases over time. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Dr. Alan Baratz has led D-Wave through its SPAC listing, commercial product launches, and government contract acquisitions. Capital allocation focuses on R&D, commercial expansion, and cloud infrastructure rather than M&A. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $12.44 million with TTM net income of negative $368 million and TTM levered free cash flow of negative $63.51 million. The company holds $588.4 million in cash against minimal debt, providing runway. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly $7.65 billion market value versus $12.44 million TTM revenue, QBTS trades near 618x sales. The P/S multiple reflects quantum sector enthusiasm rather than current operating fundamentals. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest available price of $20.64 sits within a 52-week range of $12.75 to $46.75, with elevated beta of 2.10 and average daily volume near 35.6 million shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Very high. Commercial quantum adoption, technology competition, cash burn, dilution risk, government contract dependence, and extreme valuation sensitivity can all produce large price swings. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data and quote math. Low for forward-looking scenarios because quantum computing commercialization, customer adoption, and competitive dynamics are inherently uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low. D-Wave has a long operating history in quantum and a cash runway, but the current valuation prices in massive future revenue that has not yet materialized, leaving limited traditional margin of safety. | Low |
QBTS AI stock forecast
The QBTS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $20.64 July 10 quote rather than a point target. Because QBTS reports negative GAAP EPS, a conventional three-scenario P/E calculation does not produce meaningful outputs. The scenarios below are therefore based on revenue growth, cash runway, commercial adoption milestones, and sector valuation trends rather than mechanical EPS math.
$37 to $46
More likely if D-Wave sustains government and enterprise contract momentum, the NSF grant converts into commercial products, quantum annealing adoption accelerates, analyst targets averaging $37.39 with a high of $45 are reached, and the sector multiple holds or expands.
$20 to $37
More likely if D-Wave continues to grow revenue at a measured pace, cash consumption remains manageable, the stock oscillates with quantum sector sentiment, and price trends toward the midpoint of analyst estimates.
$13 to $20
More likely if commercial adoption disappoints, gate-model quantum progress narrows the annealing addressable market, cash burn accelerates relative to revenue, or the sector de-rates from speculative multiples.
QBTS AI technical analysis
QBTS AI technical analysis starts from the $20.64 July 10, 2026 quote. The 52-week range is $12.75 to $46.75, beta is 2.10, and average daily volume is approximately 35.6 million shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live moving averages and momentum levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.64 | Yahoo Finance close on July 10, 2026, the latest available quote before the July 12 cutoff. |
| Near support | $18 to $20 | The area around the current price is the first reference range. A sustained break below it may find the next support near the $15 area. |
| Near resistance | $25 to $30 | The upper end of the recent consolidation range and the area below the 52-week midpoint are the first overhead zones. |
| 52-week high | $46.75 | A breakout above this level with volume would be a significant technical signal. Set in the context of quantum sector momentum at that time. |
| 52-week low | $12.75 | The lowest print in the past year. A break below it would indicate severe sector or company-specific distress. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | Price has pulled back from the 52-week high. Confirming the 50-day and 200-day moving averages requires live chart data. |
| Volume | About 35.6M average daily shares | Yahoo Finance listed average volume around the cutoff. Quantum sector news and contract announcements can drive outsized moves. |
| Volatility | Very high | Beta of 2.10 and a wide 52-week range confirm high price volatility, typical for early-stage quantum computing equities. |
| Invalidation | Failure below $18 area | A sustained break below the $18 support area, especially if accompanied by negative guidance or cash burn surprises, weakens any near-term constructive thesis. |
QBTS AI trading strategy
The QBTS AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a volatile, early-stage quantum computing stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, earnings-calendar review, and fresh market data.
Look for QBTS to reclaim and hold above near-term resistance in the $25 to $30 range with above-average volume. Confirm the catalyst by checking government contract awards, NSF grant milestones, or Leap customer growth data.
A reversal back below $20 or a cash-burn acceleration that shortens the runway should invalidate the setup. Keep exposure proportional to high volatility.
If QBTS pulls back toward the $18 to $20 support zone on normal volume without company-specific bad news, monitor whether it recovers from that level while public-sector contract activity remains consistent.
Do not add simply because the price is lower. Reassess if the cash position declines faster than expected, shares outstanding rise, or analyst sentiment deteriorates.
Track revenue by product line (quantum cloud services, system sales, professional services), customer count and concentration, government awards, gross margin trajectory, operating expense discipline, cash, and share count.
Reduce confidence if revenue remains flat while cash burn persists, or if gate-model competitors announce solutions that directly address annealing use cases.
Investment research summary
Customers pay D-Wave for access to quantum annealing systems and cloud-based hybrid solvers when they expect to solve complex optimization, scheduling, logistics, or scientific problems faster or better than with classical computing alone.
D-Wave has a two-decade head start in quantum annealing, a live commercial cloud platform, and an installed base of government and research users. The moat is vulnerable because gate-model quantum approaches and classical heuristic improvements are advancing in parallel.
The failure path is that quantum annealing addresses a narrower commercial market than investors expect, gate-model quantum progress subsumes annealing use cases, or revenue growth stalls before the company reaches operating leverage, forcing dilutive financing or a depressed exit.
Management has kept D-Wave operating for over two decades through multiple technology cycles, secured public market listing, and recently won NSF grants. The key test is converting backers and pilot programs into repeatable, scalable revenue.
Quantum computing is a genuine long-term technology trend, but the pace of commercial adoption, the winning hardware architecture, and the timeline for fault-tolerant quantum computing remain debated. Government funding provides a supportive floor.
The share price at 618x trailing sales embeds aggressive expectations for revenue growth and quantum adoption. The cash balance provides a multi-year runway, but negative free cash flow and net losses mean the current valuation has no traditional earnings-based margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QBTS price | $20.64 on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.65 billion on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 370.4 million | Yahoo Finance implied by market cap and price | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $12.44 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Negative $368 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | Negative $1.14 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $588.4 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | Negative $63.51 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $12.75 to $46.75, beta 2.10, avg volume 35.6M | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
This QBTS AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if quantum technology adoption, contract conversion, financial results, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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