D-Wave Quantum Inc. research snapshot
QBTS AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads D-Wave Quantum as a quantum annealing pure-play whose commercial story strengthened on July 27, 2026, when AT&T expanded its agreement and D-Wave transferred its listing to Nasdaq, while the market data and financial profile remain highly speculative. The stock closed at $18.08 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $6.70 billion, computed as $18.08 times approximately 370.45 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. TTM revenue was about $12.44 million with TTM net income of negative $368 million, while the company held $588.4 million of cash against only $46.82 million of debt, a net cash position of about $541.58 million. The AT&T agreement, which cut a network optimization workload from roughly one hour to under 15 seconds, drove a double-digit rally and led Benchmark to initiate coverage with a $30 target. The 15-analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $37.05, but the stock still traded below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $22.51 and $23.14, and short interest was about 17.6% of shares outstanding. The QBTS AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$18.08
Market cap
$6.70 billion
AI score
45 / 100
Rating
Quantum annealing pioneer with a new AT&T catalyst, highly speculative
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after an AT&T-driven rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | D-Wave sells quantum annealing systems, cloud-based quantum services via Leap, hybrid solver solutions, and professional services to commercial, government, and research customers, and describes itself as the only dual-platform company building both annealing and gate-model systems. FY2025 revenue was $24.59 million, up 178.54% from $8.83 million, but TTM revenue is about $12.44 million and operating economics remain deeply negative. | Medium |
| Moat | D-Wave has two decades of quantum annealing intellectual property, a live commercial cloud platform, an IDC MarketScape Leaders placement, and a growing list of production customers such as AT&T. The moat is conditional because gate-model quantum computing (IONQ, IBM, Google) or alternative architectures could address annealing use cases over time. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Dr. Alan Baratz has led D-Wave through its public listing, the transfer to Nasdaq completed in July 2026, the AT&T expansion, and the pursuit of government grants. Capital allocation focuses on R&D, commercial expansion, and cloud infrastructure rather than M&A, and the key test remains converting backers into repeatable, scalable revenue. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $12.44 million with TTM net income of negative $368 million and TTM free cash flow of negative $102.17 million. The company holds $588.4 million in cash against $46.82 million of debt, providing runway, while shares outstanding rose 52.84% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly $6.70 billion market value versus $12.44 million TTM revenue, QBTS trades near 538x trailing sales, with forward price-to-sales near 122x and price-to-book near 5.95. The multiple reflects quantum sector enthusiasm rather than current operating fundamentals. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $18.08 sat below the 50-day moving average near $22.51 and the 200-day moving average near $23.14, with 14-day RSI near 45, beta of 2.10, and 20-day average volume near 18.5 million shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Very high. Commercial quantum adoption, technology competition, cash burn, dilution risk with shares up 52.84% year over year, elevated short interest near 17.6% of shares outstanding, government contract dependence, and extreme valuation sensitivity can all produce large price swings. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data, quote math, and technical snapshots. Low for forward-looking scenarios because quantum computing commercialization, customer adoption, and competitive dynamics are inherently uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low. D-Wave has a long operating history in quantum, a large net cash position, and growing commercial validation, but the current valuation prices in massive future revenue that has not yet materialized, leaving limited traditional margin of safety. | Low |
QBTS AI stock forecast
The QBTS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $18.08 July 31, 2026 close rather than a point target. Because QBTS reports negative GAAP EPS, a conventional three-scenario P/E calculation does not produce meaningful outputs. The scenarios below are therefore based on revenue growth, cash runway, commercial adoption milestones such as the AT&T agreement, and sector valuation trends rather than mechanical EPS math.
$33 to $46
More likely if AT&T expands its deployment further, additional Fortune 100 and telecom customers follow, the gate-model roadmap strengthens the dual-platform story, quantum sector sentiment re-rates, and price approaches the $37.05 average and $45 high analyst targets.
$22 to $37
More likely if D-Wave compounds revenue toward the FY2026 consensus of $42.82 million, cash consumption remains manageable, the stock oscillates with quantum sector sentiment, and price trends toward the $22 low to $37 average analyst target range.
$13 to $18
More likely if the August 6, 2026 report disappoints, commercial adoption stalls, gate-model quantum progress narrows the annealing addressable market, dilution accelerates, cash burn outpaces revenue, or the sector de-rates toward the $12.75 52-week low.
QBTS AI technical analysis
QBTS AI technical analysis starts from the $18.08 July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print near $17.97. The 52-week range is $12.75 to $46.75, beta is 2.10, and 20-day average volume is about 18.5 million shares. The stock trades below its 50-day moving average near $22.51 and its 200-day moving average near $23.14, with RSI near 45. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live moving averages and momentum levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.08 | StockAnalysis.com close on July 31, 2026, the latest available quote before the August 3 cutoff, with an after-hours print near $17.97. |
| 20-day moving average | $19.64 | Barchart noted the 20-day moving average near $19.64 and flagged a decisive break above it as a trigger that could accelerate near-term bullish momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $22.51 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near $22.51, above the current price, keeping the short-term trend under pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | $23.14 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near $23.14, so price is below the long-term trend line as well. |
| Near support | $17.20 to $17.64 | Barchart listed the first support level near $17.64 and the second near $17.20 as of July 31, 2026. |
| Next support | $16.02 to $16.56 | Barchart listed the third support level near $16.56, with the July 17, 2026 swing low near $16.02 as the next reference below. |
| Near resistance | $18.72 to $19.80 | Barchart listed resistance levels near $18.72, $19.36, and $19.80, with the 20-day moving average near $19.64 sitting inside this zone. |
| 52-week high | $46.75 | The October 15, 2025 high remains far overhead. Fibonacci retracement levels near $25.74, $29.75, and $33.76 mark intermediate reference zones. |
| 52-week low | $12.75 | The March 30, 2026 low is the main downside reference. A break below the $16 area would signal severe sector or company-specific distress. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, Barchart opinion 72% sell | StockAnalysis.com reported 14-day RSI near 45.45, neutral, while Barchart Technical Opinion was a 72% sell with a weakening short-term outlook. |
| Volume | About 18.5 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 18.53 million shares. News and contract announcements such as the AT&T deal can drive outsized moves. |
| Volatility | Very high | Beta of 2.10, Barchart implied volatility near 99% and historical volatility near 97%, and a wide 52-week range confirm extreme price volatility. |
| Invalidation | Failure below $17.20 | A sustained close below the $17.20 support, especially toward the $16.02 low, would weaken any near-term constructive setup and open the path toward the $12.75 52-week low. |
QBTS AI trading strategy
The QBTS AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a volatile, early-stage quantum computing stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, the August 6, 2026 earnings calendar, and fresh market data.
Look for QBTS to reclaim and hold its 20-day moving average near $19.64 with above-average volume, then build toward the $22.51 50-day moving average. Confirm the catalyst by tracking AT&T deployment milestones, additional telecom or Fortune 100 contracts, and the August 6 earnings report.
A reversal back below $17.64, an accelerating cash burn, or a dilution announcement that shortens the runway should invalidate the setup. Keep exposure proportional to the very high volatility.
If QBTS pulls back toward the $17.20 to $17.64 support zone on normal volume without company-specific bad news, monitor whether it recovers from that level while contract activity and analyst sentiment remain consistent.
Do not add simply because the price is lower. Reassess if cash declines faster than expected, shares outstanding keep rising, short interest climbs, or the August 6 report contradicts the AT&T narrative.
Track revenue by product line (system sales, quantum computing as a service, professional services), customer count and concentration, government awards, gross margin trajectory, operating expense discipline, cash, share count, and the conversion of AT&T and similar announcements into recognized revenue.
Reduce confidence if revenue stays flat while cash burn persists, if gate-model competitors announce solutions that directly address annealing use cases, or if per-share metrics deteriorate faster than headline revenue growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay D-Wave for access to quantum annealing systems and cloud-based hybrid solvers when they expect to solve complex optimization, scheduling, logistics, or scientific problems faster or better than with classical computing alone, as AT&T demonstrated by cutting a network workload from about one hour to under 15 seconds.
D-Wave has a two-decade head start in quantum annealing, a live commercial cloud platform, an IDC MarketScape Leaders placement, and an installed base of government and research users. The moat is vulnerable because gate-model quantum approaches and classical heuristic improvements are advancing in parallel.
The failure path is that quantum annealing addresses a narrower commercial market than investors expect, gate-model quantum progress subsumes annealing use cases, headline contracts such as AT&T convert into less revenue than the rally implies, or revenue growth stalls before operating leverage, forcing dilutive financing or a depressed exit.
Management has kept D-Wave operating for over two decades, secured a public listing and then the July 2026 Nasdaq transfer, won NSF grants, and expanded the AT&T relationship. The key test is converting backers and pilot programs into repeatable, scalable revenue.
Quantum computing is a genuine long-term technology trend with supportive government funding and rising enterprise adoption, but the pace of commercial deployment, the winning hardware architecture, and the timeline for fault-tolerant quantum computing remain debated.
The share price at about 538x trailing sales embeds aggressive expectations for revenue growth and quantum adoption. The cash balance provides runway, but negative free cash flow and net losses mean the current valuation has no traditional earnings-based margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QBTS price | $18.08 at the July 31, 2026 close, $17.97 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.70 billion, computed as $18.08 x approximately 370.45 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 370.45 million, up 52.84% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $12.44 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $24.59 million, up 178.54% from $8.83 million in FY2024, driven by system sales of $16.18 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Negative $368 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | Negative $1.08 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net cash | $588.4 million cash and equivalents, $46.82 million total debt, net cash of $541.58 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Negative $102.17 million, with TTM operating cash flow of negative $97.66 million and capital expenditures of $4.51 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| AT&T expanded agreement | Expanded on July 27, 2026; early work cut a network optimization workload from about one hour to under 15 seconds | AT&T press release via Business Wire and Barchart coverage | July 27, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 15 analysts, average price target $37.05, range $22 to $45, with Benchmark initiating at $30 on July 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 27, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus forecast | Revenue of $42.82 million, up 74.17% from FY2025, with adjusted EPS of negative $0.31 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 27, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $12.75 to $46.75, beta 2.10, RSI near 45.45, 50-day MA $22.51, 200-day MA $23.14, 20-day average volume 18.53 million, short interest 65.07 million shares or 17.56% of shares out | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
This QBTS AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if quantum technology adoption, contract conversion, financial results, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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