RBC Bearings Incorporated research snapshot
RBC AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads RBC Bearings as a high-quality engineered-components franchise with exceptionally strong aerospace and defense demand, growing industrial momentum, expanding gross margins, rapid debt reduction, and a newly meaningful space business, offset by a valuation that already prices in sustained execution. The stock closed at $551.31 on July 31, 2026, down 1.88% on the day despite a strong Q1 2027 beat, and the market capitalization was about $17.40 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $551.31 times 31.57 million shares outstanding with 0.00% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, and balance-sheet pages. Q1 2027 results, reported July 31, 2026, delivered net sales of $519.5 million up 19.2%, consolidated gross margin of 47.7%, adjusted EBITDA up 28.1% to $181.2 million, adjusted EPS up 36.6% to $3.88 versus a $3.43 consensus, and free cash flow of $146.9 million at 144.7% conversion. Aerospace and Defense segment sales rose 36.9% (16.6% organic excluding VACCO), commercial aerospace grew 21.8%, defense grew 64.6%, Industrial sales rose 8.4% with OEM up 21.5%, and the space business added $25 million in the quarter against about $70 million for all of fiscal 2026. The company paid down $77 million of debt in the quarter and another $50 million after quarter end, remaining on track to retire the term loan by November 2026. Management guided Q2 2027 revenue of $505 million to $515 million, up 10.9% to 13.1%. Offsetting this are a trailing PE of about 54.5x and a forward PE of about 36.6x, a stock that pulled back from its 52-week high of $667.69 after the report, Q2 gross margin guidance of 45.5% to 45.75% that is seasonally and one-time-item adjusted versus the Q1 47.7% print, tariff refund timing that contributed almost 100 basis points to Q1 gross margin, and a price target low of $490 with one analyst Sell rating. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$551.31
Market cap
$17.40 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace and industrial compounder trading at a premium valuation
Trend status
Short-term pullback below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages while still above the 200-day trend line
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RBC Bearings sells engineered bearings, components, and essential systems that reduce friction, control motion, pressure, and flow in aerospace, defense, industrial, marine, and space applications. TTM revenue reached $1.95 billion, up 17.3%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from qualification-heavy, mission-critical products, engineering know-how, certifications, reliability requirements, long customer design cycles, sole-source positions on large programs, aftermarket demand, and manufacturing scale in specialized niches. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has built through acquisitions and internal capacity investment. The present test is converting the $2.3 billion backlog and strong demand into margin expansion and free cash flow while paying down debt, with the term loan targeted to be retired by November 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2027 net sales rose 19.2% to $519.5 million, consolidated gross margin was 47.7%, adjusted EBITDA rose 28.1% to $181.2 million, adjusted EPS rose 36.6% to $3.88, and free cash flow was $146.9 million at 144.7% conversion, with $77 million of debt paid down during the quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31, 2026 close of $551.31, RBC trades at about 54.5x trailing EPS, 36.6x forward earnings, 8.90x sales, 5.03x book value, and 45.2x free cash flow, so the market already assumes strong sustained execution. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $551.31 is below the 20-day ($583.71), 50-day ($595.35), and 100-day ($585.21) moving averages but above the 200-day ($529.44), with 14-day RSI near 35 and ATR(14) near $20.08, pointing to a short-term pullback in a longer uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a premium multiple, Q2 2027 gross margin guidance stepping down from the Q1 print, one-time tariff refund and contract-resolution benefits, aerospace or industrial demand reversals, defense-budget timing, customer concentration, VACCO integration, supply-chain fragility, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical facts and valuation arithmetic have high confidence and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2027 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Forward-price confidence is medium because AI cannot know production-rate changes, defense orders, tariff policy, acquisition synergies, or future market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is high quality with visible demand, but the valuation and execution-dependence of the earnings path raise the cost of being wrong. | Medium |
RBC AI stock forecast
The RBC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $551.31 and the FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus of $14.44. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $631, a base value near $435, and a bearish value near $276 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 16%, 11%, and 4% and exit multiples of 28x, 22x, and 17x. These are scenario outputs, not price promises.
$610 to $660
More likely if commercial aerospace and defense demand keep expanding, space revenue scales beyond a $25 million quarterly run rate, Industrial stays in low double-digit growth, margins expand on volume and mix, the term loan is retired on schedule, and investors hold the stock near or above a 25x forward multiple.
$420 to $470
More likely if aerospace and defense growth remains healthy but moderates, Industrial grows at a high single-digit rate, gross margin normalizes toward the 45.5% to 46% area as one-time benefits fade, adjusted EPS compounds in the low double digits, and the valuation compresses toward 20x forward earnings.
$260 to $310
More likely if aerospace build rates or defense orders disappoint, defense-budget timing slips, Industrial end markets weaken, VACCO integration or supply chains underdeliver, margins revert as tariff refunds and contract resolutions roll off, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 15x area implied by a low target near $490 or lower.
RBC AI technical analysis
RBC AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $551.31, the latest available snapshot at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed below its 20-day ($583.71), 50-day ($595.35), and 100-day ($585.21) moving averages but above the 200-day ($529.44), with 14-day RSI near 35, 14-day ADX near 21.6 with negative directional pressure, and 14-day ATR near $20.08. The stock traded in a wide $548.46 to $597.97 range on the July 31 report day and closed near the lows, leaving near-term support and resistance levels that can change quickly.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $551.31 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market-cap math uses 31.57 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $525 to $535 | The 200-day moving average was near $529.44 on July 31, 2026, with the $548 area from the July 31 low just below the current price as a first reference. |
| Next support | $490 to $500 | A zone tied to the analyst low price target of $490 and round-number support; a sustained break below the 200-day trend line would put this area in play. |
| Near resistance | $580 to $600 | The 20-day moving average was near $583.71 and the 50-day near $595.35 on July 31, 2026, forming a resistance cluster that caps a rebound. |
| Next resistance | $640 to $670 | The 52-week high of $667.69 from earlier in 2026 sits overhead, with the analyst median target of $640 nearby. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $583.71; 50-day $595.35; 100-day $585.21; 200-day $529.44 | Barchart reported these moving averages on July 31, 2026; price is below the 20, 50, and 100 day lines but above the 200 day line. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 35; ADX(14) near 21.6 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 35.32 and 14-day ADX near 21.64 with -DI near 25.60 above +DI near 22.45 on July 31, 2026, indicating weak short-term momentum. |
| Volume | About 227,000 to 228,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 227,995 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 227,359 on July 31, 2026; volume confirmation matters around the $580 to $600 resistance. |
| Volatility | Elevated around earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 29% and ATR(14) near $20.08, so position sizing should account for wider swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $529 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $529.44 would shift the technical picture from a pullback within an uptrend to a broader breakdown; a close below the $490 area would be a stronger invalidation signal. |
RBC AI trading strategy
This RBC AI trading strategy is an educational framework, not a personalized recommendation. Match any position size and loss limit to your own time horizon, liquidity needs, tax situation, and risk capacity, and refresh the technical data before acting.
Wait for RBC to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $583.71 and the 50-day near $595.35 on above-average volume, with aerospace and defense order commentary and Q2 guidance staying constructive.
Treat a sustained close below the 200-day moving average near $529.44 as invalidation rather than averaging down automatically, because a premium multiple can compress quickly if growth slows.
If RBC pulls back toward the $525 to $535 support area without deterioration in aerospace builds, defense demand, Industrial orders, margin outlook, backlog, or the debt-reduction plan, compare the drawdown with the fundamental thesis and valuation.
Do not assume a dip is a bargain solely because the company has high-quality products. The stock still trades above 50x trailing earnings, so a margin or growth miss can reset the multiple hard.
Track aerospace and defense versus Industrial sales, OEM and distribution mix, backlog and sole-source program commentary, space revenue, gross margin and one-time tariff or contract-resolution effects, VACCO integration, operating cash flow, capex, net debt, interest expense, and share count.
Reduce confidence if aerospace or defense growth fades, Industrial weakness broadens, margins miss the guided 45.5% to 45.75% range for Q2, debt reduction stalls, or EPS expectations decline while the valuation remains elevated.
Investment research summary
RBC Bearings earns when customers need reliable, engineered bearings, components, and systems that reduce friction, control motion, pressure, and flow in applications where product failure, qualification delays, or replacement costs matter, across aerospace, defense, industrial, marine, and space markets.
The moat is rooted in engineering, qualification, certification, manufacturing process knowledge, customer integration, sole-source positions on large programs, and aftermarket relationships. It is strongest where reliability and switching costs matter most, especially aerospace, defense, marine, and space.
The thesis fails if aerospace build rates or defense orders fall, defense-budget timing slips, Industrial end markets soften, VACCO integration or supply chains underdeliver, one-time tariff refunds and contract resolutions roll off and expose underlying margin, debt reduction stalls, or the market de-rates a high earnings multiple.
Management must show that acquisitions such as VACCO add durable capability rather than just revenue, protect quality and delivery performance, convert the $2.3 billion backlog into cash flow, allocate capital carefully, and retire the term loan by November 2026 as guided.
Commercial aerospace recovery, defense replenishment, space proliferation across SpaceX, Blue Origin, Amazon, and government programs, marine production growth, and healthy Industrial demand are supportive long-term drivers. The cycle remains exposed to OEM schedules, defense budgets, tariffs, and supply chains.
At roughly 54.5x trailing EPS and 36.6x forward earnings, the share price implies sustained growth and disciplined execution. Margin of safety would improve if the price falls while aerospace and defense demand, margins, cash generation, and the debt-reduction path remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC price | $551.31 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.88% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $17.40 billion, computed as $551.31 x 31.57 million shares outstanding with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2027 net sales | $519.5 million, up 19.2% from $436.0 million, matching the 10-Q and earnings release with 0.00% deviation | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 2027 earnings | GAAP net income $101.5 million and diluted EPS $3.20, versus $68.5 million and $2.17 a year ago | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 Form 10-Q | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 2027 adjusted results | Consolidated gross margin 47.7%, adjusted EBITDA $181.2 million up 28.1%, adjusted EPS $3.88 up 36.6% versus consensus $3.43 | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings release and call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 2027 free cash flow and debt | Free cash flow $146.9 million at 144.7% conversion, $77 million of debt paid down in the quarter and $50 million more after quarter end, term loan targeted for retirement by November 2026 | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Segment sales Q1 2027 | Aerospace and Defense sales up 36.9% (16.6% organic excluding VACCO), commercial aerospace up 21.8% (20.3% organic), defense up 64.6% (10% organic), Industrial sales up 8.4% with OEM up 21.5% and distribution up 3.1% | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings release and call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Space business | $25 million of revenue in Q1 2027 against about $70 million for all of fiscal 2026, with more than a dozen space customers including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Amazon-related projects | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Backlog and guidance | Backlog near $2.3 billion with much of it marine, and Q2 2027 revenue guidance of $505 million to $515 million, up 10.9% to 13.1% | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Gross margin outlook | Q1 2027 gross margin 47.7% benefited from about 100 basis points of tariff refunds and 50 to 60 basis points of contract resolutions; Q2 2027 adjusted gross margin guided to 45.5% to 45.75% | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 earnings call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $124.5 million as of June 27, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (124500000) from the Q1 2027 Form 10-Q | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Debt | $96.2 million current portion of long-term debt plus $710.0 million long-term debt as of June 27, 2026, or $806.2 million excluding operating leases and $872.6 million including them | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | July 31, 2026 |
| Net cash | -$748.1 million, calculated as $124.5 million cash minus $872.6 million total debt including leases, with the statistics page reporting -$753.6 million under S&P Global classification | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Stockholders equity and book value | Stockholders equity of $3,462.0 million and book value per share of $109.31 as of June 27, 2026, matching the Q1 2027 Form 10-Q | RBC Bearings Q1 2027 Form 10-Q | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $1.95 billion up 17.3%, net income $320.6 million up 26.6%, EPS $10.12 up 26.9%, operating cash flow $467.5 million, free cash flow $385.2 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 54.47x trailing PE, 36.60x forward PE, 8.90x sales, 5.03x book value, 45.18x free cash flow, 30.61x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $623.57 across 9 analysts, low $490 and high $680, median $640, targets last updated May 19, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell out of 9 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley $600 to $640, Cantor Fitzgerald $599 to $615, BofA $650, with KeyBanc and William Blair maintaining Buy ratings | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TheFly/TipRanks coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 496,920 shares short, 1.57% of shares outstanding, 2.02 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 and FY2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate $2.12 billion with adjusted EPS $14.44, FY2028 revenue $2.35 billion with adjusted EPS $16.39, with 3-year revenue growth forecast of about 11% and EPS growth of about 14% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $583.71, 50-day SMA near $595.35, 100-day SMA near $585.21, 200-day SMA near $529.44, 14-day RSI near 35.3, 14-day ADX near 21.6, 14-day ATR near $20.08, 14-day historical volatility near 29% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This RBC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, guidance, tariff changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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