Pattern Group Inc. research snapshot
PTRN AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Pattern Group Inc. as a fast-growing e-commerce marketplace accelerator that is now profitable on a GAAP net income attributable to parent basis but still trades at a premium multiple with heavy Amazon.com dependence. The stock closed at $23.02 on July 31, 2026, after a 3.88% drop, with after-hours trading at $23.20 and a market capitalization near $4.07 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $23.02 times 176.77 million shares outstanding, which also matches the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 155,163,575 Series A and 21,702,510 Series B shares as of March 31, 2026. Pattern grew Q1 2026 revenue 43% year over year to $773.7 million, above the roughly $716 million consensus, with $0.17 basic and $0.16 diluted GAAP EPS versus a $0.10 consensus, net revenue retention of 127%, and about $54 million of adjusted EBITDA. On July 29, 2026, Pattern announced it became a technology partner supporting advertising in ChatGPT, extending a platform that already manages more than $2 billion of annual ad spend across marketplaces, Google, Meta, Snap, and TikTok. The main questions are whether the business can keep growing through its heavy dependence on Amazon.com, which was about 84% of Q1 2026 revenue, and whether the roughly 39x forward PE and 1.5x price to sales multiple leave room for the growth that analysts assume. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$23.02
Market cap
$4.07 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
High-growth e-commerce accelerator with strong Amazon concentration and a premium valuation
Trend status
Pulled back 23% from the July 2026 high of $29.80 but still holds a strong uptrend well above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pattern is a full-stack e-commerce accelerator that acquires brand inventory, runs marketplace operations, and provides technology, advertising, logistics, and SaaS-like services for consumer brands across more than 70 marketplaces. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from marketplace operating scale, proprietary technology, roughly 77 trillion ecommerce data points, advertising relationships across ChatGPT, Google, Meta, Snap, and TikTok, and brand service contracts. Switching costs are meaningful once Pattern manages a brand catalog and advertising, but Amazon.com controls the largest channel. | Low-medium |
| Management | Co-founder David Wright leads as President, CEO, and Chairman. Management has executed the rebrand from Covalent Group, the Nasdaq listing in September 2025, a 127% net revenue retention rate, and a secondary offering that reduced the Knox Lane stake. Capital allocation and post-IPO execution records are still short. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue reached $2.735 billion TTM, up about 42%, with Q1 2026 revenue of $773.7 million up 43%. GAAP net income attributable to parent was +$29.21 million in Q1 2026 after +$16.25 million for FY2025, with about $54 million of Q1 adjusted EBITDA and TTM free cash flow of $99.07 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 1.49x TTM revenue, 6.67x book value, 41.07x trailing free cash flow, and a forward PE near 38.89, the stock is priced for continued high growth rather than for current profitability. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PTRN rallied from its $8.92 52-week low to $29.80 on July 16, 2026, then pulled back to $23.02 by July 31, holding right at the 50-day moving average near $23.00 and well above the 200-day near $15.94, with 14-day RSI near 42.98. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the heavy Amazon.com concentration at about 84% of Q1 2026 revenue, a short public history, secondary-offering and lockup overhang, inventory and markdown risk, marketplace policy changes, negative available-to-common earnings from the preferred deemed dividend, and valuation compression risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, filings-based financials, quote, and valuation math that cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the 10-K and 10-Q. Lower for forward return estimates because Amazon dependence, secondary selling, and the ChatGPT advertising ramp are hard to model. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the short public history limits how much certainty any analysis can claim. | Low-medium |
PTRN AI stock forecast
The PTRN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $23.02 July 31, 2026 close, not a precise price promise. The bullish case needs the ChatGPT advertising partnership and international and SaaS growth to accelerate while margins expand. The base case assumes growth of roughly 25% to 30% with improving profitability and a stable multiple. The bearish case assumes Amazon marketplace headwinds, secondary overhang, or margin compression with multiple contraction.
$30 to $34
More likely if the ChatGPT Ads partnership and other AI-native advertising channels drive meaningful incremental revenue, international and SaaS logistics revenue compound quickly, net revenue retention stays near or above 125%, and the market holds a price to sales multiple near or above 1.7x while profitability keeps improving.
$21 to $27
More likely if revenue grows 25% to 30%, GAAP profitability continues to improve, Amazon.com remains the core but dominant channel, and the stock trades in line with the analyst average target of $23.38 and range of $19 to $27.
$14 to $19
More likely if Amazon marketplace fee or policy changes squeeze the model, growth decelerates toward the teens, secondary or lockup selling persists, profitability stalls, or the price to sales multiple contracts toward 1x, which is where the stock traded in June 2026 before the July rally.
PTRN AI technical analysis
PTRN AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff shows a strong medium-term uptrend that is correcting after a parabolic July run. The stock closed at $23.02 on July 31, 2026 after printing a 52-week and all-time high of $29.80 on July 16, pulled back 23%, and is sitting right on the 50-day moving average near $23.00, with 14-day RSI near 42.98, well above the 200-day moving average near $15.94. Traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting because this page does not fetch request-time market data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.02 | StockAnalysis.com real-time close for July 31, 2026, down 3.88%, with after-hours trading near $23.20. |
| Near support | $21.8 to $22.2 | The July 24 intraday low near $22.06 and the late-July consolidation zone. Holding this area keeps the short-term correction contained. |
| Secondary support | $19 to $20 | The June 2026 secondary offering priced at $19.00 and the June trading range. A close below this zone would break the medium-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $24.8 to $26.3 | The July 22 and July 21 highs near $24.81 and $26.25. Reclaiming these levels would signal the pullback is ending. |
| Upper resistance | $29.80 | The 52-week and all-time high set on July 16, 2026. A close above this level would require fresh momentum and volume. |
| 50-day moving average | $23.00 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near $23.00, essentially at the current price as of the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $15.94 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near $15.94, well below price, confirming the long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43 | StockAnalysis.com reported 14-day RSI near 42.98, neutral after the July rally cooled. Momentum is no longer overbought. |
| Volume | About 1.82 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 1.82 million shares, with about 1.0 million traded on July 31, 2026. |
| Volatility | Elevated for a newly public stock | As a stock listed in September 2025 with a relatively small float, PTRN can swing sharply around earnings, secondary news, and market sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19 to $20 | A decisive close below the $19 to $20 zone would break the medium-term uptrend. A close below the 50-day near $23.00 first weakens the short-term setup. |
PTRN AI trading strategy
The PTRN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines business evidence from SEC filings, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it flags the short public history as a reason to use smaller position sizes and wider stops.
Look for PTRN to stabilize above the $21.8 to $22.2 support zone and to reclaim the $24.8 to $26.3 resistance band on rising volume, which would signal the July pullback is over. Confirm that secondary and lockup selling has been absorbed before acting.
A daily close below the $19 to $20 zone invalidates the medium-term trend. Given the under-one-year public history and heavy Amazon.com dependence, keep position sizing conservative.
If PTRN pulls back toward the $19 to $20 secondary-offering zone and volume dries up, watch for base building before considering a position. Review the next earnings report, insider and Knox Lane selling patterns, and Amazon marketplace news first.
Avoid catching a falling knife during lockup expirations or secondary offers. Define a maximum loss and review the latest financials before acting.
Track quarterly revenue growth, net revenue retention, Amazon.com share of revenue, gross margin, GAAP profitability, adjusted EBITDA, inventory, the ChatGPT advertising ramp, insider and secondary selling, and analyst target revisions.
Lower conviction if Amazon.com dependence rises further, growth decelerates, GAAP profitability stalls, or management issues another dilutive offering.
Investment research summary
Pattern acquires inventory and runs full-stack marketplace operations for consumer brands across more than 70 marketplaces, selling acceleration services, technology, advertising, logistics, and SaaS-like capabilities, and it now routes advertising into ChatGPT as well as established channels.
The moat comes from operating scale, proprietary technology, roughly 77 trillion ecommerce data points, and advertising relationships across ChatGPT, Google, Meta, Snap, and TikTok, plus the operational complexity of managing brand catalogs. Amazon.com remains the dominant channel and the main structural dependency.
The thesis fails if Amazon changes marketplace fees, policies, or logistics in ways that compress Pattern margin, if growth decelerates as the base of business expands, if secondary and lockup selling persists, if inventory markdowns hurt gross margin, or if the elevated multiple contracts when the growth rate slows.
Co-founder David Wright has run the rebrand from Covalent Group, the September 2025 Nasdaq listing at $14.00, a 127% net revenue retention rate, and an 8 million share secondary priced at $19.00 on June 16, 2026 that reduced the Knox Lane stake. Key monitoring items are insider selling, capital allocation, and margin and profitability guidance.
E-commerce marketplace acceleration remains a secular growth industry as brands outsource marketplace operations and advertising, and AI-native channels such as ChatGPT Ads are adding a new growth layer. Competitive intensity and platform concentration risk are both rising.
At about 1.5x TTM revenue, 41x trailing free cash flow, and a forward PE near 39, the stock prices in continued high growth and improving profitability. Margin of safety is limited unless Amazon concentration falls and GAAP profitability expands on a durable basis.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTRN price | $23.02 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $23.20 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.07 billion, computed as $23.02 x 176.77 million shares outstanding; verified with 0.01% deviation via financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com market cap and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 176.77 million per StockAnalysis.com, matching the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover of 155,163,575 Series A and 21,702,510 Series B shares as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $8.92 to $29.80 | StockAnalysis.com quote and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $773.7 million, up 43% year over year from $540.4 million, above the roughly $716 million consensus | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | Operating income of $39.6 million, net income attributable to parent of $29.21 million, basic EPS of $0.17 and diluted EPS of $0.16 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2,501.3 million, up 39.3% from $1,796.2 million in FY2024 and $1,366.4 million in FY2023, cross-checked across SEC XBRL and StockAnalysis.com | FY2025 Form 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | +$16.25 million attributable to parent, while net income available to common was -$156.61 million after a non-cash $163.9 million deemed dividend on the Series B Preferred redemption | FY2025 Form 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL NetIncomeLoss | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income reconciliation | Third-party statistics show TTM net income of -$143.04 million on an available-to-common basis; SEC XBRL shows GAAP net income attributable to parent of +$29.21 million for Q1 2026 and +$16.25 million for FY2025, so the aggregator figure reflects the preferred deemed dividend, not operating losses | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Net revenue retention | 127% in Q1 2026, up from 115% in Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | About $54 million, computed from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q non-GAAP reconciliation of net income plus depreciation, amortization, income taxes, and share-based compensation | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue by source, Q1 2026 | Amazon.com $651.1 million, Amazon marketplaces international $51.4 million, other online marketplaces and channels $57.2 million, SaaS logistics and other $14.1 million, making Amazon.com about 84% of Q1 2026 revenue | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and balance sheet | Cash and equivalents of $344.22 million, total debt of $31.07 million, net cash of $313.15 million or $1.77 per share, book equity of $609.69 million, book value per share of $3.45, total assets of $967.2 million, and inventory of $299.75 million as of March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q via StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $123.59 million and free cash flow of $99.07 million, with FY2025 operating cash flow of $99.41 million and Q1 2026 operating cash flow of $72.58 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and SEC XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PS ratio 1.49, forward PS 1.17, PB ratio 6.67, P/TBV 7.31, P/FCF 41.07, forward PE 38.89, EV/Sales 1.37, EV/EBITDA 69.89, EV/FCF 37.91 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 9 analysts with an average 12-month target of $23.38, low $19, median $24.50, and high $27 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 14, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $3.31 billion up 32.4% with adjusted EPS of $0.56, and FY2027 revenue of $4.09 billion up 23.6% with adjusted EPS of $0.72 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 14, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Jefferies downgraded to Hold from Buy on July 14, 2026 with a target raised to $30 from $21 citing valuation after the shares rose about 150%; Goldman Sachs maintained Buy with a target of $27; William Blair Buy; Stifel Buy at $23; KeyBanc Buy at $20 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 14, 2026 |
| ChatGPT Ads technology partnership | On July 29, 2026, Pattern announced it became a technology partner supporting advertising in ChatGPT, so its brand partners can advertise within ChatGPT, adding to a platform that manages more than $2 billion of annual ad spend across marketplaces, Google, Meta, Snap, and TikTok, built on roughly 77 trillion ecommerce data points | Business Wire press release and Yahoo Finance | July 29, 2026 |
| June 2026 secondary offering | An 8 million share secondary of Series A common stock priced at $19.00 on June 16, 2026, sold by an entity affiliated with Knox Lane LP, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as joint bookrunners, after a June 15 registration statement | Business Wire press release and StockAnalysis.com filings | June 16, 2026 |
| Russell index inclusion | Preliminary inclusion in the Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 announced on June 23, 2026 | Business Wire press release | June 23, 2026 |
| Share statistics | Insiders own 12.80% and institutions 16.88% of shares outstanding, with a float of 45.56 million shares and short interest of 5.02 million shares, about 2.84% of shares outstanding and 11.01% of float, at 1.73 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $23.00, 200-day moving average near $15.94, 14-day RSI near 42.98, 20-day average volume near 1.82 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial health scores | Altman Z-Score of 7.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 5 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis.com important dates | August 3, 2026 |
This PTRN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, secondary or lockup events, Amazon marketplace changes, or market moves. Pattern Group Inc. listed on Nasdaq in September 2025, so its public history is short and this analysis reflects that constraint.
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