PTC Inc. research snapshot
PTC AI stock analysis reads PTC Inc. as an industrial software company whose execution has turned a corner as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, with the stock closing at $137.20 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $14.89 billion. The Q3 FY2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered constant currency ARR growth of 9.1% excluding divested businesses, beating the high end of guidance, $60 million of net new ARR, operating cash flow of $261 million up 7%, and free cash flow of $249 million up 3%, while the company raised full-year ARR, revenue, and EPS guidance and repurchased about $525 million of stock in the quarter. AI momentum showed up in the largest AI deal ever won, a near seven-figure ServiceMax AI deal with a large industrial automation company, plus Onshape API calls from AI startups tripling in a few months. Offsetting this is a stock still down about 32% over 52 weeks, a 7% year-over-year revenue decline tied to the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture and a large contract duration change, revenue growth guidance of roughly 0% for FY2026, a 41% non-GAAP operating margin that slipped 290 basis points, and a wide analyst target range from $140 to $230. The analysis supports a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$137.20
Market cap
$14.89 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Execution turning around with AI optionality
Trend status
Recovering above short-term averages, still below the 200-day line
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PTC sells mission-critical engineering, product lifecycle, application lifecycle, and service lifecycle software to industrial and manufacturing customers through CAD, PLM, ALM, and SLM systems of record. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from workflow embedding, product data models, CAD and PLM standardization, implementation depth, 40 years of customer relationships, and high switching costs in engineering and service organizations. | Medium-high |
| Management | Neil Barua and the team have turned the corner on go-to-market transformation, with four straight quarters of improving execution, $60 million of net new ARR in Q3, the largest AI deal ever won, and about $1.625 billion of expected FY2026 buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 showed 9.1% constant currency ARR growth excluding divested businesses, $261 million operating cash flow up 7%, $249 million free cash flow up 3%, and raised FY2026 ARR, revenue, and EPS guidance, though revenue fell 7% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At about 13.3x trailing GAAP EPS, 16.4x forward PE, 15.9x trailing free cash flow, and 5.0x sales, the headline multiple looks reasonable, but trailing EPS includes the non-recurring Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture gain. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PTC closed at $137.20 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and near its 100-day line, but below the 200-day moving average near $154, so the long-term trend still needs a reclaim. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are flat FY2026 revenue guidance, manufacturing software budget cycles, slower AI monetization, divestiture-related cash taxes and costs, debt, and competition from Autodesk, Dassault Systemes, Siemens, and cloud-native platforms. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, quote math, and business model mapping that cross-checked across PTC filings, StockAnalysis, MacroTrends, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward share-price ranges and AI deal ramp timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because PTC has a durable software base and improving execution, but the stock still requires live technical confirmation and normalized earnings work after divestiture effects. | Medium |
PTC AI stock forecast
The PTC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $137.20 and the raised FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of about $8.14. The mechanical three-year framework produced a bearish area near $104, a base area near $160, and a bullish area near $229 using EPS growth of 2%, 7%, and 12% and exit multiples of 12x, 16x, and 20x. These are scenario illustrations, not price promises.
$210 to $240
More likely if constant currency ARR growth stays at or above 9%, net new ARR keeps step-up through Q4, AI-enabled products such as ServiceMax AI and Onshape continue to close large deals, and free cash flow stays near the $850 million guidance.
$150 to $175
More likely if PTC delivers the raised 9% to 9.5% ARR growth, keeps non-GAAP EPS on the $7.87 to $8.42 path, converts deferred ARR as planned, and investors hold the stock near a 16x to 18x forward multiple.
$95 to $120
More likely if manufacturing demand slows, ARR growth fades below 9%, AI deals take longer to close, divestiture-related cash taxes pressure cash flow, or the stock loses the recent support zone and revisits the lower half of its 52-week range.
PTC AI technical analysis
PTC AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff starts from the $137.20 close on July 31, 2026. The stock rallied about 15.8% over five trading days after the Q3 FY2026 report, pushing price above the 20-day moving average near $124.67 and the 50-day moving average near $126.97. The 100-day line near $135.01 sits just below price, while the 200-day moving average near $154.11 remains overhead, so the long-term trend is not yet confirmed bullish.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $137.20 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 108.51 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $124 to $127 | The 20-day moving average near $124.67 and the 50-day moving average near $126.97 cluster in this zone as of July 31, 2026. |
| Deeper support | $108.50 to $116 | The quoted 52-week low of $108.50 and a nearby planning band form the deeper risk zone below current support. |
| Near resistance | $154 to $160 | The 200-day moving average near $154.11 is the main overhead level; a close above it would improve the longer-term technical setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $126.97 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $126.97 on July 31, 2026, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $154.11 | The 200-day trend line near $154.11 is above price, so the long-term trend still needs a reclaim before trend-following signals strengthen. |
| 100-day moving average | $135.01 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $135.01 on July 31, 2026, just below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 65, ADX below 20 | 14-day RSI was near 65.38 and 14-day ADX near 19.79 on Barchart, showing strong short-term momentum after earnings but a trend that is still developing. |
| Volume | About 1.63 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.63 million shares on July 31, 2026, rising to about 2.2 million on the five-day period including the earnings move. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 51%, so position sizing should allow for large swings around earnings, guidance, and macro moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $124 | A decisive close below the 20-day and 50-day moving average cluster near $124 to $127 would weaken the short-term recovery; the thesis should be reviewed below the 52-week low near $108.50. |
PTC AI trading strategy
The PTC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live chart confirmation, position sizing, stop discipline, and a review of filings, ARR reports, AI deal announcements, and industrial software demand.
Wait for PTC to hold above the $124 to $127 support cluster and to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $154 with expanding volume and improving relative strength.
Invalidate the setup if PTC fails the 200-day reclaim or closes below the $124 to $127 support band.
If PTC revisits the $124 to $127 support area without a fundamental break, compare price action with ARR growth, free cash flow, AI deal momentum, debt, and management commentary.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a clear distinction between temporary quote weakness and thesis damage.
Track constant currency ARR growth excluding divested businesses, net new ARR and deferred ARR, free cash flow, FY2026 revenue and EPS guidance, buyback pace, AI product adoption, and manufacturing customer budget signals.
Reduce confidence if ARR growth fades, revenue quality weakens, cash flow misses guidance, or price moves depend mainly on one-time divestiture gains.
Investment research summary
PTC helps industrial companies design, manage, service, and connect complex physical products through software embedded in engineering and lifecycle workflows, and increasingly through AI capabilities layered on product data foundations.
The moat is strongest where PTC software becomes a product data backbone. CAD, PLM, ALM, and SLM systems can be expensive and risky to replace once embedded, and AI makes governed product data more strategic.
The thesis can fail if manufacturing customers cut budgets, AI features do not create measurable workflow value, competitors bundle aggressively, divestiture-related cash taxes hit free cash flow, or investors overvalue one-time earnings.
Management has turned the corner on go-to-market transformation after the Kepware and ThingWorx divestiture, and signaled continued reinvestment, tuck-in acquisitions, and about $1.625 billion of expected FY2026 buybacks.
Digital engineering, product lifecycle data, software-defined products, and AI over structured product data are long-running trends, but adoption is cyclical and budget-sensitive in manufacturing end markets.
The stock offers more cash-flow support than many software peers after a deep drawdown, but margin of safety depends on normalized EPS, sustained ARR growth, free cash flow, and whether AI monetization can reaccelerate after divestiture effects.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTC price | $137.20 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $14.89 billion, verified as $137.20 x 108.51 million shares with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week price performance | Down 32.25% over 52 weeks with a range of $108.50 to $219.69 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 ARR | Constant currency ARR of $2,448 million up 9.1% excluding divested businesses, exceeding the 8% to 9% guidance, with $60 million of net new ARR | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $261 million up 7% and free cash flow of $249 million up 3%, both above the high end of guidance | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and EPS | Revenue of $600 million down 7% and GAAP EPS of $1.03 down 12%; non-GAAP EPS of $1.58 down 4%, above consensus near $1.56 | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings release and TheFly | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance raise | ARR growth raised to 9% to 9.5%, revenue guided to $2,690 million to $2,750 million, non-GAAP EPS to $7.87 to $8.42, free cash flow reaffirmed near $850 million | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Capital returns | About $525 million repurchased in Q3 FY2026, with about $1.625 billion expected for FY2026 and fully diluted share count guided down to about 116 million shares from 121 million in FY2025 | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| AI momentum | Largest AI deal ever, a near seven-figure ServiceMax AI deal with a large industrial automation company; Onshape API calls from AI startups tripling in a few months; Onshape largest win ever with Winnebago | PTC Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $351.45 million and debt of about $1.42 billion net of deferred issuance costs as of June 30, 2026; StockAnalysis reports total debt near $1.61 billion | PTC Q3 FY2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis | July 29, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 108.51 million current shares on StockAnalysis; Q3 FY2026 diluted weighted average shares of 114.98 million, with FY2026 fully diluted guided near 116 million | StockAnalysis.com and PTC Q3 FY2026 income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.739 billion, up 19.18% from $2.298 billion, cross-checked across PTC results, StockAnalysis, and MacroTrends with 0.04% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $955.32 million, capital expenditures of $19.84 million, and free cash flow of $935.48 million over TTM, for a 6.28% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 13.30x trailing PE, 16.38x forward PE, 5.04x sales, 4.38x book, 15.91x trailing free cash flow, EV/EBITDA 12.90 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $173.35 across 20 analysts, low $140 and high $230, median $167.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell out of 20 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Baird raised to $205, Oppenheimer reiterated $175, BMO raised to $164, Barclays raised to $155, Stifel lowered to $165, Piper Sandler lowered to $157, Citi raised to $141, BofA lowered to $145 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts, TheFly | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.95 million shares short, 5.48% of shares outstanding, 2.89 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $2.73 billion with adjusted EPS $8.18, FY2027 revenue $2.90 billion with adjusted EPS $8.87 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $124.67, 50-day SMA near $126.97, 100-day SMA near $135.01, 200-day SMA near $154.11, 14-day RSI near 65.38, 14-day ADX near 19.79 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This PTC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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