Oracle Corporation research snapshot
ORCL AI stock analysis currently reads Oracle Corporation as a mission-critical enterprise software company being repriced around AI cloud infrastructure growth, database durability, a very large remaining performance obligation, and unusually high financing needs. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ORCL closed at $129.87 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization near $374.09 billion. The business quality score stays high because Oracle has sticky database, applications, and cloud relationships, but the stock analysis is not an automatic buy: FY2026 free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion, the company plans about $40 billion of additional FY2027 funding, and the chart is in a clear downtrend near 52-week lows despite a strong cloud backlog and two July 2026 demand wins from the Pentagon and Google Cloud. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$129.87
Market cap
$374.09 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High business quality with a fast-growing cloud backlog, but the AI capital program, negative free cash flow, heavy funding needs, and a bearish price trend reduce the score
Trend status
Bearish technical trend: ORCL closed near 52-week lows on July 28, 2026 and trades far below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after a steep drawdown from its high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, support, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and services embedded in mission-critical workflows. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to $67.4 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from switching costs, database compatibility, installed base, support contracts, enterprise relationships, and AI cloud workload exposure. Gemini integration and the Pentagon contract show demand breadth. | Medium-high |
| Management | Larry Ellison remains founder, CTO, executive chairman, and largest insider owner. Management is committing very large sums to AI infrastructure, with about $40 billion of FY2027 funding planned. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 17%, cloud revenue rose 39% to $34.0 billion, and operating cash flow rose 54% to $32.0 billion, but free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion after $55.7 billion of capital expenditures. | High |
| Valuation | At $129.87, ORCL traded near 22.3x trailing GAAP EPS and 16.1x forward non-GAAP EPS, with a 1.54% dividend yield and a negative free cash flow yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading near 52-week lows of $114.50 and far below the 50-day reference near $164.92 and the 200-day reference near $183.12. | High |
| Risk level | Risks are elevated: negative free cash flow, about $167 billion of total debt, roughly $40 billion of planned FY2027 funding, potential dilution, customer concentration, hyperscaler competition, and AI spending concerns. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive data and calculations. Lower confidence for exact price outcomes because financing, capex, RPO conversion, and technical levels can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. ORCL has durable software assets, but the thesis depends on proving that the AI cloud backlog converts into cash returns after a very large investment and funding cycle. | Low to medium |
ORCL AI stock forecast
The ORCL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $129.87 July 31 quote, FY2026 GAAP EPS of $5.83, the FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $8.05, and audited three-year valuation math. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific price. The script-based framework produced a bearish area near $97, a base area near $190, and a bullish area near $318 before financing, dilution, and future cash-flow quality adjustments.
$285 to $330
More likely if FY2027 revenue reaches the confirmed guidance of about $90 billion, cloud revenue keeps compounding at a high rate, RPO converts into profitable revenue, capex efficiency improves, and the market pays about 30x three-year forward GAAP EPS.
$175 to $205
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid-single to low-double-digit rate, cloud infrastructure demand remains strong but financing and depreciation keep cash-flow conversion uneven, and investors value ORCL near 22x three-year forward GAAP EPS.
$85 to $110
More likely if AI capacity spending stays ahead of revenue conversion, large customers renegotiate or delay demand, equity issuance dilutes holders, free cash flow remains deeply negative, or the multiple compresses toward 14x earnings and below the lowest analyst target near $110.
ORCL AI technical analysis
ORCL AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $129.87 after a July 30 rise of more than 8% on the expanded Google Cloud partnership. Barchart listed the 20-day reference near $128.88, the 50-day reference near $164.92, and the 200-day reference near $183.12, with a 14-day RSI near 43.80. The stock printed a 52-week low of $114.50 on July 28, 2026 and closed the month far below all major moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $129.87 | July 31, 2026 close used for this static page and the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 52-week range | $114.50 to $345.72 | The 52-week low was printed on July 28, 2026. The stock is down about 48% over the past year. |
| Near support | $114.50 to $116 | The July 28, 2026 52-week low and the nearby July 24, 2026 low. A break below this zone would open a test of the $110 analyst low target. |
| Secondary support | $110 | The lowest 12-month analyst target in the current consensus. A decisive break would point to a deeper valuation reset. |
| Near resistance | $132 to $135 | The July 31 intraday high and the first overhead zone above the 20-day reference. This zone needs to be reclaimed with volume. |
| Secondary resistance | $140 to $145 | The early July breakdown area where selling pressure rejected price on July 9 and July 10, 2026. |
| 20-day moving average | $128.88 | Barchart reference. Price was recovering around this level after the Google Cloud partnership rebound. |
| 50-day moving average | $164.92 | Barchart and StockAnalysis references. Price is far below this level, keeping the medium-term trend negative. |
| 200-day moving average | $183.12 | Barchart reference. The long-term trend stays fragile until price moves well above this level. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.80, downward directional bias | Barchart showed a 14-day RSI near 43.80 and a dominant negative directional index through the recent downtrend. |
| Volume | 34.2 million shares on July 31 | Volume expanded on the July 30 partnership surge and on June 11 earnings-related selling, so any rebound needs volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | About 64% historic volatility, $7.74 14-day ATR | Barchart references. The wide daily swings require explicit position sizing and stop placement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $114.50, or a failed reclaim of $135 | A break below the 52-week low keeps sellers in control. Failure to reclaim resistance keeps trend-following confidence low. |
ORCL AI trading strategy
The ORCL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality enterprise software company in a high-risk AI capital investment cycle. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, financing updates, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for ORCL to reclaim the $132 to $135 zone and then the 20-day and 50-day references with improving volume before treating the recovery as a durable uptrend.
A failed reclaim of $135 or a close back below $116 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If ORCL holds $114.50 to $129 without a new financing, customer, or capex shock, compare price action with RPO conversion, cloud infrastructure growth, free cash flow, debt, and dilution.
Do not average down only because Oracle owns durable software assets. Define maximum loss and check whether weakness is valuation reset or thesis damage.
Track Q1 FY2027 results on September 8, 2026, the confirmed FY2027 revenue guidance of about $90 billion, cloud growth, RPO additions and conversion, capex, operating cash flow, free cash flow, debt and equity issuance, interest expense, and large AI customer concentration.
Lower the rating if EPS growth depends on one-time gains or leverage while free cash flow and return on invested capital fail to improve.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Oracle to run databases, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, and support for systems where downtime, migration risk, and data governance failures are costly. Demand breadth is visible in the July 2026 Pentagon contract and the expanded Google Cloud partnership.
The moat is strongest in database switching costs, enterprise support relationships, application suites, installed base, and multicloud database integrations. It is weaker where OCI competes directly with hyperscale cloud giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
The thesis fails if AI infrastructure contracts do not produce attractive cash returns, if large customers renegotiate or delay, if financing dilutes owners, or if cloud competitors price capacity more aggressively while interest expense rises.
Larry Ellison remains the key technical and ownership figure, which aligns incentives but increases key-person and governance concentration. The current capital allocation test is whether tens of billions of AI data center spending earns more than its cost of capital, with about $40 billion of additional funding planned for FY2027.
Oracle sits inside the AI cloud infrastructure buildout and enterprise software modernization trends. These are long-term trends, but infrastructure supply, power availability, customer funding cycles, and bond market risk can shift quickly.
At about 22x trailing GAAP EPS and 16x forward non-GAAP EPS, the market is pricing in continued strong cloud growth while punishing the cash-flow profile. Margin of safety improves if RPO converts into profitable cash flow, and narrows if the AI buildout keeps free cash flow deeply negative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL price | $129.87 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $374.09 billion, checked against $129.87 x 2.88 billion shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.88 billion shares, up 1.68% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 total revenue | $67.357 billion, up 17% | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 cloud revenue | $34.0 billion total cloud revenue, including $18.1 billion IaaS and $15.9 billion SaaS | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 GAAP net income and EPS | $17.0 billion net income and $5.83 diluted EPS | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 operating cash flow and free cash flow | $31.977 billion operating cash flow, $55.663 billion capex, negative $23.686 billion free cash flow | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Remaining performance obligations | $638 billion at Q4 FY2026, up 363% year over year | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and funding plan | $31.894 billion cash at FY2026 year end; Oracle raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity in FY2026 and expects about $40 billion more financing in FY2027 | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | About $90 billion total revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $8.05, with Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth guided at 58% to 64% in USD | Oracle FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.28x earnings, 16.13x forward earnings, 1.54% dividend yield, and negative 6.33% FCF yield using financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 44 analysts, average 12-month target of $248.15 with a range of $110 to $400 | StockAnalysis forecast with S&P Global and TipRanks data | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | Barchart 20-day reference $128.88, 50-day reference $164.92, 200-day reference $183.12, and 14-day RSI 43.80 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
This ORCL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Oracle Corporation stock. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available public data and can be wrong. The stock is volatile and recently traded near 52-week lows. Always verify live market data, filings, risk tolerance, and personal constraints before making investment decisions.
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