Pentair plc research snapshot
PNR AI stock analysis reads Pentair plc as a high quality water technology and pool franchise that is now fighting a Pool channel inventory destock, a sharply lowered 2026 outlook, a CFO departure, and securities class action investigations. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $65.44 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $10.45 billion, and the stock traded near 16.4x trailing GAAP EPS and 13.4x forward earnings. Q2 2026 results released July 28 showed sales of $933 million, adjusted EPS of $1.14, and a 42% drop in Pool sales driven by about $170 million of channel destocking. Management reaffirmed full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.60 to $4.80 after cutting it from the prior $5.30 to $5.40 range in a July 14 preannouncement, and announced the $1.4 billion Taco Group acquisition. This PNR AI stock analysis uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$65.44
Market cap
$10.45 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Quality franchise under heavy channel and credibility pressure
Trend status
Downtrend below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, testing the low $60s
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pentair sells water movement, filtration, treatment, flow control, pool, and industrial products with high gross margins, recurring replacement demand, and a 50-year dividend record. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brands, installed base, distribution relationships, engineering know-how, and manufacturing scale create a real moat, but the Pool share loss on older replacement pads shows it is not invincible. | Medium-high |
| Management | The Pool guide was cut in a July 14 preannouncement, the CFO departed and Bob Fishman returned as interim CFO, and multiple law firms opened securities investigations, so credibility repair is now part of the story. | Low |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales fell to $933 million with core sales down 17%, adjusted EPS was $1.14, and full year 2026 sales guidance is now down 4% to 7% with adjusted EPS of $4.60 to $4.80 after the July cut. | High |
| Valuation | At $65.44, PNR traded near 16.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 15.5x trailing free cash flow, 2.79x book value, and 2.60x sales, with a 1.65% dividend yield, which is cheaper than before the guidance cut but priced for stabilization. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is below every major moving average with 14-day RSI near 41 and ADX around 31 showing a defined downtrend, sitting well under the $113.95 52-week high and above the $57.60 52-week low. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: Pool destocking, securities class action investigations, CFO turnover, Taco integration and leverage, housing and pool demand, tariffs, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and verified math. Market cap, Q2 2026 sales, FY2025 revenue, TTM free cash flow, valuation ratios, and the three scenario framework were checked with financial_rigor.py. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and near-term outcomes depend on channel and credibility repair. | Medium-low |
PNR AI stock forecast
The PNR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $65.44 and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $4.70. The three scenario framework produced a bearish area near $47, a base area near $70, and a bullish area near $100 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 3%, 2%, and 6% and exit multiples of 11x, 14x, and 18x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$90 to $105
More likely if Pool channel inventory clears by the end of Q3, Pool returns to strong growth in 2027, Flow and Water Solutions keep record margins, Taco closes and adds $0.10 to $0.15 to 2027 adjusted EPS, and the securities investigations do not produce material findings.
$62 to $78
More likely if Pentair delivers the $4.60 to $4.80 adjusted EPS guidance, total sales land near the down 4% to 7% midpoint, Pool normalizes gradually, and investors keep the stock near a 13x to 15x forward multiple.
$45 to $55
More likely if Pool destocking extends past 2026, the securities investigations broaden, Taco leverage and integration distract, housing and pool demand stay weak, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 11x area implied by bearish targets such as Bank of America at $60.
PNR AI technical analysis
PNR AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $65.44 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 41 and 14-day ADX near 31 confirming a downtrend. The 52-week low of $57.60 is the main downside reference, and the 20-day average near $68 is the first upside test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.44 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 159.64 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $63 to $65 | Barchart showed the 5-day moving average near $65.63 and the stock has held the low $60s zone since the Q2 report, a first downside watch area. |
| Major support | $57.60 | The 52-week low reported by StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. A decisive close below it would open a new leg of downside. |
| Near resistance | $67.96 to $71.46 | The 20-day moving average near $67.96 and the 50-day moving average near $71.46 form the first overhead band. |
| Secondary resistance | $78 to $91 | The 100-day average near $78.21 and the 200-day average near $91.17 are overhead from the earlier downtrend. |
| 50-day moving average | $71.46 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $71.46 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $91.17 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $91.17, far above price and confirming the medium-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41, ADX near 31 | 14-day RSI was near 41.31, and 14-day ADX near 30.87 with negative directional index above positive, indicating a defined downtrend rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 3.79 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 3.79 million shares on July 31, 2026, so breakout and breakdown quality can be checked against it. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 76% and 20-day near 66%, so position sizing should account for large swings around reports, guidance, and legal news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $57.60 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $57.60 would invalidate the base-building hope; a close above $71.46 would be the first sign the downtrend is fading. |
PNR AI trading strategy
The PNR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the channel and credibility turnaround. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for PNR to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $68 and then the 50-day near $71.46 with volume above the 3.79 million average, while the stock still holds above the $57.60 low.
A failed breakout or a daily close back below the $63 to $65 zone should trigger a stop and review, since momentum remains negative.
If PNR pulls back toward $60 to $63 without new legal, guidance, or channel damage, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, Pool sell-through data, Taco deal progress, and the securities investigation status before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule, because class action headlines and guidance risk can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track Pool channel inventory and sell-through, Flow and Water Solutions sales and margins, tariff refunds, the $55 million productivity program, Taco closing and integration, net leverage, dividend coverage, buybacks, and the securities investigation status.
Reduce confidence if guidance is cut again, leverage stays above plan, the investigations expand, or Pool destocking extends past Q3.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Pentair for water movement, filtration, treatment, flow control, and pool systems where reliability, safety, energy efficiency, and replacement-cycle value matter, across residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure markets.
The moat combines brands, a large installed base, distribution and manufacturer representative relationships, engineering know-how, and scale. Pool share loss on older pads shows the moat needs active aftermarket defense.
The thesis fails if Pool destocking extends, the securities investigations produce material findings, CFO and leadership churn distracts execution, Taco leverage and integration underdeliver, or housing and pool demand stay weak for longer.
John Stauch led the July 14 preannouncement and guidance reset, and the CFO departure brought Bob Fishman back as interim CFO. Management credibility and channel discipline are now the main tests alongside capital allocation for the Taco deal.
Water quality, scarcity, efficiency, infrastructure maintenance, and pool aftermarket demand are long-term supports, and Taco adds HVAC and data center exposure. Near-term cycles still depend on housing, consumer spending, pool seasonality, and municipal and industrial budgets.
The verified three scenario model produced about $100 in the bull case, $70 in the base case, and $47 in the bear case over three years using 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.70. At $65.44, margin of safety depends on whether channel and credibility repair succeed.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PNR price | $65.44 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.45 billion, verified as $65.44 x 159.64 million shares with 0.03% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Sales of $933 million, adjusted operating income of $237 million, ROS of 25.4%, adjusted EPS of $1.14, core sales down 17% | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Flow sales up 5% to $264 million with ROS up 470 bps to 26.5%, Water Solutions sales down 5% to $422 million with ROS up 560 bps to 30%, Pool sales down 42% to $247 million with segment income down 62% | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Pool channel destocking | About $170 million of Pool channel inventory destocking drove core sales down 17%; management expects inventory levels optimized by the end of Q3 2026 | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.60 to $4.80, reaffirmed on July 28 after being cut from $5.30 to $5.40 in the July 14, 2026 preannouncement | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call and July 14 preannouncement | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 sales guidance | Total sales down approximately 4% to 7% (midpoint about $3.95 billion), Flow up mid to high single digits, Water Solutions flat with core up low single digits, Pool down 18% to 22% | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Q3 sales down 4% to 6% (midpoint about $970 million), Pool down 23% to 25%, adjusted operating income down 14% to 16%, adjusted EPS of $1.05 to $1.08 versus consensus of $1.16 | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call and TipRanks coverage | July 28, 2026 |
| Taco Group acquisition | $1.4 billion acquisition announced July 28, about 10.5x expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA including tax benefits and synergies, expected to close in Q4 2026, $0.10 to $0.15 accretive to 2027 adjusted EPS, about $30 million in run rate cost synergies | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call and announcement | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet June 30, 2026 | Net debt leverage of 1.4x at the end of Q2 2026; Taco deal expected to lift net leverage to about 2.4x at closing with a plan to get below 1.5x within two years | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $150 million of share repurchases in Q2 2026, dividend increased 8% with the 50th consecutive year of dividend increases | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.176 billion, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, Pentair reports, and S&P Global with 0.10% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales cross-check | $933 million, matching the earnings call, Reuters coverage, and StockAnalysis.com with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $4.01 billion, net income of $651.4 million, GAAP EPS of $3.98, operating cash flow of $751.5 million, free cash flow of $673.0 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $91.8 million, total debt of $1.76 billion, net cash of negative $1.67 billion, equity of $3.75 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 16.44x trailing GAAP EPS, 15.51x trailing free cash flow, 2.79x book value, 2.60x sales, 1.65% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 13.41x forward PE, EV/EBITDA of 12.98, EV/FCF of 18.01, PEG of 1.59 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $76.64 across 17 analysts, low $60 and high $94, median $79 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 17 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Oppenheimer maintains Buy at $94, Citi cut $106 to $85, Baird cut $83 to $80, RBC cut $74 to $73, TD Cowen cut $75 to $65 with a Sell rating, Stifel holds at $65, Bank of America reiterates Sell at $60 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $3.93 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.65, FY2027 revenue of $4.29 billion with adjusted EPS of $5.18 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.27 million shares short, 3.93% of shares outstanding, 2.27 days to cover, down from 7.08 million shares a month earlier | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $65.63, 20-day SMA near $67.96, 50-day SMA near $71.46, 100-day SMA near $78.21, 200-day SMA near $91.17, 14-day RSI near 41.31, 14-day ADX near 30.87 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Securities investigations | BFA Law, Robbins LLP, and Berger Montague announced investigations into Pentair related to Pool channel destocking and the CFO departure after the stock dropped about 15% | GlobeNewswire, PRNewswire, and Newsfile press releases | July 31, 2026 |
This PNR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, earnings calls, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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