Palomar Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
PLMR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Palomar Holdings as a fast-growing specialty property and casualty insurer that keeps beating quarterly estimates and raising guidance. The stock traded at $135.06 on August 3, 2026 at 1:47 PM EDT, up 1.27 or 0.95% from the $133.79 previous close, within a session range near $133.87 to $137.44, carrying a market capitalization near $3.58 billion that matches the $135.06 price times 26.50 million shares outstanding. Trailing twelve month revenue was approximately $980.27 million and net income approximately $197.10 million. Q1 2026 gross written premiums rose 42.4% to $629.8 million, GAAP diluted EPS was $1.57, adjusted net income rose 23.1% to $63.1 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.31. On May 29, 2026 Palomar completed its June 1 reinsurance placement and raised full year 2026 adjusted net income guidance to $266 million to $280 million. In Q1 2026 the company repurchased 190,255 shares for $23.1 million, and on May 6, 2026 a new two-year $200 million buyback program took effect. The bull case is sustained double-digit premium growth across earthquake, inland marine, casualty, surety and credit, and crop lines with catastrophe losses near budget. The bear case is a severe earthquake or wind season, worsening commercial earthquake pricing near 18% rate declines, rising attritional loss ratios from casualty and crop growth, or a higher cost of reinsurance. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$135.06 at the August 3, 2026, 1:47 PM EDT real-time reading, up 1.27 or 0.95% from the $133.79 previous close, within a session range near $133.87 to $137.44 after opening at $135.35
Market cap
$3.58 billion, verified as $135.06 x 26.50 million shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Profitable specialty insurer with raised 2026 guidance and a new $200 million buyback, but earthquake and catastrophe seasonality keep near-term results volatile
Trend status
Neutral short-term trend with the price below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages but above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 52 after a pullback from the $147.62 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Palomar earns premiums across five specialty product categories: Earthquake, Inland Marine and Property, Casualty, Surety and Credit, and Crop, distributed through admitted and excess and surplus channels. Q1 2026 gross written premiums rose 42.4% to $629.8 million, with 57.43% of enforced premium split between admitted and E&S, a 60/40 property versus casualty split, a 45/55 residential versus commercial split, and about 90% of premium from lines not impacted by the traditional P&C cycle. | High |
| Moat | Palomar has built underwriting expertise, proprietary risk models, data analytics, and reinsurance relationships for catastrophe-exposed property risks that many standard carriers avoid, with an A (Excellent) financial strength rating from A.M. Best for PSIC, PSRE, PESIC, and FIA and an A- (Excellent) rating for PCSC. Distribution relationships with agents, MGAs, and program administrators plus the California Earthquake Authority partnership create a niche. The moat is analytical and relational rather than a hard technology or brand monopoly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mac Armstrong and the executive team, including CFO Chris Uchida and President Jon Christianson, have grown gross written premiums from under $200 million in 2019 to $629.8 million in a single quarter while keeping an adjusted combined ratio near 76% in Q1 2026. Management raised full year 2026 adjusted net income guidance twice in 2026, closed the Gray Casualty and Surety acquisition on January 31, 2026, repurchased 190,255 shares for $23.1 million in Q1, and launched a new $200 million buyback program effective May 6, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was approximately $980.27 million and TTM net income approximately $197.10 million through March 2026. Q1 2026 gross written premiums rose 42.4% to $629.8 million, net earned premiums rose 59.3% to $261.4 million, adjusted net income rose 23.1% to $63.1 million, and the adjusted combined ratio was 76.0% versus 68.5% a year earlier. The GAAP combined ratio rose to 84.5% from 73.1% because of higher attritional losses from casualty and crop growth. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $135.06, the financial_rigor.py calculation gives about 18.82x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.17x forward PE, 3.70x book value, and 9.81x free cash flow per share with no dividend. The multiple is reasonable for a growth specialty insurer with a forward PE near 13, but the analyst consensus target of $164 implies only about 21% upside from the August 3 price, and the margin of safety shrinks if premium growth slows or catastrophe losses rise. | High for math, medium for judgment |
| Technical trend | The price pulled back from the 52-week high of $147.62 to the August 3 reading of $135.06, sitting below the 5-day moving average near $138.30 and the 20-day average near $137.40 but above the 50-day average near $124.28, the 100-day near $122.54, and the 200-day near $123.64. RSI near 52 is neutral, and ADX near 22.9 signals a modestly trending market after the pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. Key risks include earthquake and windstorm loss severity, the $8 million to $12 million annual catastrophe load, reinsurance availability and cost, commercial earthquake pricing declines near 18%, higher attritional loss ratios from casualty and crop growth, reserve development, competition from larger carriers, regulatory changes, and key-person risk given the concentrated management team. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the data snapshot, cross-checked market-cap math, and transparent scenario math, but medium for forward earnings because catastrophe loss experience, premium growth, the loss ratio, and the valuation multiple are all variable and interdependent. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business has a strong growth story, raised guidance, and an active buyback, but the current price requires continued premium growth and favorable catastrophe experience, and Q2 2026 results are due after the market close on August 4, 2026. A single severe earthquake or wind season could meaningfully change the earnings picture. | Medium |
PLMR AI stock forecast
The PLMR AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario range rather than a fixed price target. The exact model used the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $9.88, growth assumptions of 14%, 8%, and 0%, and terminal P/E assumptions of 18x, 13x, and 10x. It produced about $263.50, $161.80, and $98.80 before dividends. The base case near $162 is consistent with the analyst consensus price target of $164. The range is sensitive to premium growth rates, catastrophe loss experience, reinsurance costs, and the valuation multiple.
$240 to $285
More likely if premium growth stays above 20%, catastrophe losses stay within the $8 million to $12 million annual budget, commercial earthquake pricing stabilizes, surety and crop lines keep scaling, and the market rewards the growth story with an 18x multiple. The model point is about $263.50.
$150 to $175
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near the 15.09% three-year analyst growth forecast, catastrophe exposure is managed with moderate loss experience, distribution expansion continues, and EPS grows near 8% with a 13x multiple, in line with the analyst consensus target of $164. The model point is about $161.80.
$90 to $110
More likely if a severe earthquake or wind season causes above-budget losses, commercial earthquake pricing keeps declining near double digits, attritional loss ratios from casualty and crop deteriorate, reinsurance becomes more expensive or restricted, or the market applies a 10x multiple to flat EPS. The model point is about $98.80.
PLMR AI technical analysis
PLMR AI technical analysis shows a pullback from the 52-week high as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The August 3 reading of $135.06 is below the recent $147.62 high and below the 5-day moving average near $138.30 and the 20-day moving average near $137.40, but above the 50-day moving average near $124.28, the 100-day near $122.54, and the 200-day near $123.64. Barchart shows 14-day RSI near 52.43, which is neutral, and 14-day ADX near 22.88, signaling a modest trend. A break below $124 would weaken the intermediate-term structure, while a recovery above $140 would re-establish a bullish near-term posture. These levels use price data available through August 3, 2026 and should be refreshed before any trading decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $135.06 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 1:47 PM EDT reading, up 1.27 or 0.95% from the $133.79 previous close within a session range near $133.87 to $137.44 after opening at $135.35; Google Finance showed $134.99 at the 1:53 PM reading, and the reported $3.58 billion market cap matches the price times 26.50 million shares. |
| Near support | $132 to $134 | The August 3 session low of $133.87 and the previous close of $133.79 form the near support zone. This is a chart reference, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | $124 to $130 | Barchart placed the 50-day moving average near $124.28 on August 3, 2026, with StockAnalysis.com near $124.27. The $124 to $130 area is the main intermediate-term support cluster after the pullback. |
| Near resistance | $137 to $139 | The 20-day moving average near $137.40 and the 5-day moving average near $138.30 form the near resistance zone that has capped the recovery. |
| Key resistance | $144 to $148 | Barchart reported the 52-week high of $147.62 as the major resistance zone. A breakout above $148 would be a significant technical development. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52, ADX near 22.9 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 52.43 and StockAnalysis.com near 52.00, which is neutral, with 14-day ADX near 22.88 signaling a modest rather than strong trend after the pullback. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 290,000 | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 290,228 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 289,797 on August 3, 2026, with Google Finance near 330,445, useful for checking breakout and breakdown quality. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.41, 14-day historical volatility near 48.29% | The 5-year beta is well below 1.0, but Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 48.29% and 9-day near 51.67%, reflecting elevated event risk around Q2 results and catastrophe season. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $138.30, 20-day $137.40, 50-day $124.28, 100-day $122.54, 200-day $123.64 | Barchart reported these moving averages on August 3, 2026. The price sits below the 5-day and 20-day averages but above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, confirming the intermediate-term uptrend is intact. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $124 | A break below the 50-day moving average near $124.28 would weaken the intermediate-term structure, and a close below the 100-day and 200-day cluster near $122 to $124 would turn it bearish. A single large catastrophe loss or a significant earnings miss would invalidate the fundamental setup sooner than any technical level. |
PLMR AI trading strategy
The PLMR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with premium growth, catastrophe loss experience, reinsurance costs, and valuation data because a strong chart can fail when insurance operating inputs change. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release after the market close on August 4, 2026, so any setup should be sized for that event.
Watch whether PLMR reclaims the 20-day moving average near $137.40 and the 5-day moving average near $138.30 with volume, and then confirms a move toward the $144 to $148 resistance zone. Confirm the move with premium growth trends, loss ratios, the combined ratio, and the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 4.
A failed recovery followed by a close below $132 should reduce confidence. Treat a sustained close below $124 as a deeper technical invalidation and size for event risk around earnings and peak catastrophe season.
A deeper pullback toward the $124 to $130 area can become a watchlist condition if premium growth stays near 20% plus, the loss ratio stays within the guided range, the combined ratio holds near the mid-70s on an adjusted basis, and management keeps the raised 2026 guidance of $266 million to $280 million.
Do not treat the low beta or analyst price targets as a floor. Recheck premium growth, loss ratios, catastrophe loss experience, and the valuation multiple before assuming a decline is temporary.
Track gross written premium growth by product line, net earned premiums, the loss ratio, the adjusted combined ratio, catastrophe loss experience, reserve development, reinsurance cost and availability, the June 1 placement terms, the $200 million buyback pace, book value per share growth, and the Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4.
Override a bullish chart signal if premium growth slows meaningfully, the combined ratio deteriorates due to catastrophe or attritional losses, reinsurance costs rise materially, commercial earthquake pricing keeps falling near double digits, or management guidance is reduced.
Investment research summary
Palomar is a specialty property and casualty insurer that earns premiums by insuring risks that standard carriers avoid, primarily earthquake but also wind, flood, inland marine, casualty, surety and credit, and crop. Customers pay for protection in high-risk areas, and Palomar profits when its underwriting models correctly price those risks. The model is recurring through policy renewals, but results are inherently lumpy due to catastrophe exposure.
The moat is built from proprietary risk models, deep underwriting expertise in catastrophe-exposed property, established distribution relationships with agents, MGAs, and program administrators, access to a reinsurance panel of over 100 reinsurers and ILS investors, a $1.28 billion multi-year ILS platform through Torrey Pines Re, and an A (Excellent) or A- (Excellent) financial strength rating from A.M. Best across its insurance subsidiaries.
The thesis can fail through a severe earthquake or wind season that produces above-budget losses, a sustained soft market that compresses premium rates, commercial earthquake pricing that keeps declining near 18%, rising reinsurance costs, reserve inadequacy from the growing casualty book, integration risk from the Gray acquisition, or management missteps in expanding beyond core competency. The key question is whether the recent growth trajectory is durable or reflects favorable catastrophe experience that will not persist.
CEO Mac Armstrong has led Palomar since its founding in 2013, growing the company from a startup to a publicly traded specialty insurer with quarterly gross written premiums near $630 million. Management has focused on disciplined underwriting, product diversification across five categories, the Gray acquisition, a $200 million buyback program, and two guidance raises in 2026. The key test is whether the company can maintain underwriting discipline while growing rapidly and expanding into newer specialty lines.
The specialty property insurance market benefits from increasing awareness of natural catastrophe risk, population growth in catastrophe-exposed areas, and a hard market in many casualty lines such as healthcare liability, while property lines face intense competition with larger commercial account prices still declining at double-digit rates. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of certain weather events, creating both demand for insurance and uncertainty about loss costs. Crop and surety provide less cycle-sensitive growth, and 90% of Q1 2026 premium came from lines not impacted by the traditional P&C cycle.
At $135.06, the exact valuation check gave 18.82x TTM EPS, 13.17x forward PE, 3.70x book value, and 9.81x free cash flow per share with no dividend. The three-scenario model produced about $263.50, $161.80, and $98.80 after three years. The base case near $162 is consistent with the analyst consensus target of $164, but the margin of safety is modest because the earnings base can change significantly depending on catastrophe loss experience in any given year and because Q2 2026 results are due on August 4, 2026.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLMR price | $135.06 at the August 3, 2026, 1:47 PM EDT real-time reading, up 1.27 or 0.95% from the $133.79 previous close, within a session range near $133.87 to $137.44 after opening at $135.35 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| PLMR price cross-check | $134.99 at the August 3, 2026, 1:53 PM reading, up 1.20 or 0.90% from the previous close | Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.58 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py as $135.06 x 26.50 million shares with a 0.03% deviation from the reported value | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 26.50 million shares outstanding, up 2.86% year over year, with a float of 25.80 million, insiders at 2.62%, and institutions at 94.19% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM Revenue (through Mar 2026) | Approximately $980.27 million, up 60.71% year over year; Q1 2026 total underwriting revenue was $262.8 million while Google Finance reported quarterly revenue of $278.94 million including investment income | StockAnalysis.com financials and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM Net Income (through Mar 2026) | Approximately $197.10 million; Q1 2026 GAAP net income was $42.9 million and adjusted net income was $63.1 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and Palomar Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Gross written premiums up 42.4% to $629.8 million, net earned premiums up 59.3% to $261.4 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.57, adjusted net income of $63.1 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.31, adjusted combined ratio of 76.0%, annualized ROE of 18.1%, and annualized adjusted ROE of 26.6% | Palomar Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Quarterly EPS trend | Q1 2026 GAAP $1.57, Q4 2025 $2.24, Q3 2025 $2.01, Q2 2025 $1.76 on Google Finance, while the Q1 2026 earnings release reports GAAP diluted EPS of $1.57 and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.31 | Google Finance and Palomar Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raise | Full year 2026 adjusted net income guidance increased to $266 million to $280 million on May 29, 2026, from $262 million to $278 million raised at Q1, which itself was up from $260 million to $275 million, with an $8 million to $12 million catastrophe loss estimate for the year | Palomar June 1 reinsurance placement release and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| June 1 reinsurance placement | Approximately $421 million of incremental limit for the Earthquake franchise, earthquake coverage extended to $3.92 billion and $135 million for continental US hurricane events, per occurrence retentions of $11 million for hurricane and $20 million for earthquake, a seventh Torrey Pines Re catastrophe bond of $410 million including $360 million of earthquake limit, and $1.28 billion of total multi-year ILS capacity | Palomar June 1 reinsurance placement release | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | Q1 2026 repurchase of 190,255 shares for $23.1 million plus 38,875 shares for $4.2 million through May 5, 2026, and a new two-year $200 million buyback program approved on April 30, 2026 and effective May 6, 2026 through May 6, 2028 | Palomar Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet (Mar 31, 2026) | Total assets of $3,612 million, investments of $1,562 million, cash and cash equivalents of $56.54 million, goodwill and intangibles of $246.17 million, total debt of $297.43 million from the term loan supporting the Gray acquisition, stockholders equity of $959.04 million, and book value per share of $36.17 on the statistics page versus $34.96 on the balance sheet page | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow (TTM) | Operating cash flow of approximately $368.96 million, capital expenditures of about $102,000, free cash flow of approximately $368.86 million, and free cash flow per share of $13.92 over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 18.82x P/E, 13.17x forward PE, 3.70x price to book, 5.08x price to tangible book, 9.81x price to free cash flow, 14.46x EV/EBITDA, 3.69x PS, earnings yield of 5.45%, and FCF yield of 10.20%, with no dividend | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 8 analysts with an average price target of $164.00, a low of $152, a high of $168, and a median of $166, representing about 21.43% upside from the August 3 price; Google Finance reports 6 analysts with an average of $163.60 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan raised the target to $167 from $150 on July 20, Piper Sandler raised to $165 from $132 on July 15, Evercore ISI lowered to $152 from $157 on July 10, and KBW raised to $166 from $162 on July 8 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $1.18 billion with adjusted EPS of $9.88, FY2027 revenue estimate of $1.46 billion with adjusted EPS of $11.14, and a three-year EPS growth forecast of 15.09% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for release after the market close on August 4, 2026, with a conference call on August 5, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, and Google Finance consensus of $2.21 adjusted EPS on revenue of $287.73 million | StockAnalysis.com earnings calendar and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.14 million shares short, 4.29% of shares outstanding, 4.41% of float, and 3.23 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $100.81 to $147.62, up 4.12% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 0.41 and average 20-day volume near 290,000 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $138.30, 20-day SMA near $137.40, 50-day SMA near $124.28, 100-day SMA near $122.54, 200-day SMA near $123.64, 14-day RSI near 52.43, 14-day ADX near 22.88, and 14-day historical volatility near 48.29% | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial strength ratings | A (Excellent) from A.M. Best for PSIC, PSRE, PESIC, and FIA and A- (Excellent) for PCSC, after A.M. Best removed Palomar Casualty and Surety from under review with positive implications and affirmed its ratings on March 5, 2026 | A.M. Best rating action via Business Wire | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue cross-validation note | StockAnalysis.com reported FY2025 revenue of $875.97 million, up 58.16% from $553.86 million, while TTM revenue through March 2026 is approximately $980.27 million; the difference reflects fiscal year versus TTM periods and the impact of the Gray acquisition closed on January 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
This PLMR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if premium growth, catastrophe loss experience, reinsurance costs, reserve development, interest rates, regulation, competition, or market valuation change. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release after the market close on August 4, 2026 and are not reflected in the figures on this page.
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