Hagerty Inc research snapshot
HGTY AI stock analysis sees Hagerty as the leading specialty insurer for classic and enthusiast vehicles, with a membership-driven model that spans insurance, roadside assistance, valuations and auctions. The company grew FY2025 revenue about 21% to roughly $1.46 billion and reported around $49 million in net income, but Q1 2026 swung to a $6.52 million net loss on $311.83 million of revenue. At the $11.54 quote on August 3, 2026 and a verified $3.96 billion market capitalization, the HGTY AI stock forecast depends on premium and policy growth, underwriting results, the Bennetts integration, and valuation multiples near 38 times trailing earnings. This is informational scenario analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$11.54 intraday quote on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$3.96 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Hold. Specialty auto insurer with a growing membership and premium base, but a rich P/E multiple and an uneven quarterly earnings record limit the margin of safety
Trend status
Between the 52-week low of $8.81 and the 52-week high of $14.00, trading near the average analyst target of $12.14, with the Q2 2026 earnings report due August 5
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hagerty earns revenue from specialty auto insurance premiums, membership fees, roadside assistance, vehicle valuations and auction commissions, serving the collector-car and enthusiast community. FY2025 revenue was about $1.46 billion with roughly $49 million in net income. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust with collectors, the Hagerty Drivers Club membership, proprietary valuation tools, and specialized underwriting create meaningful switching costs, though larger P&C carriers and online insurance aggregators remain alternatives. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO McKeel Hagerty, son of the founder, leads a family-controlled business that expanded into auctions (Broad Arrow) and the UK market (Bennetts). Insider ownership near 3.7 percent and the multi-class structure are points to watch alongside capital allocation discipline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 21.4% to about $1.46 billion and net income jumped to about $49 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $311.83 million with a $6.52 million net loss, partly seasonal, and the next report is due August 5, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $11.54, verified math shows a TTM P/E near 38x, about 2.7x sales, 5.4x to 6.1x book value, and no dividend. The premium multiple reflects expectations of continued growth and margin recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | The August 3 intraday quote of $11.54 sits within the 52-week range of $8.81 to $14.00, near the average analyst target of $12.14, with moderate average volume near 137,000 shares and a 0.79 beta. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. Collector-car value cycles, loss ratio spikes, Bennetts integration risk, the minority-interest structure, and low short float (0.34 percent) with thin liquidity all matter, and the latest reported quarter posted a net loss. | High |
| AI confidence | High data confidence on the quote, market cap, revenue, and valuation math; lower confidence on near-term underwriting and earnings because the last reported quarter was a loss and Q2 2026 results land on August 5. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. HGTY is a high-quality niche franchise trading at a demanding multiple with an uneven earnings record, leaving limited room for error. | Medium-low |
HGTY AI stock forecast
The HGTY AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target. The auditable three-year model starts with $0.30 in trailing EPS and applies different growth and valuation assumptions. It is a sensitivity exercise, not a promise.
About $17 to $19
More likely if policy count and premium growth stay strong, loss ratios improve, the Bennetts acquisition adds to earnings in year two, investment income recovers, and investors expand the P/E multiple toward 40x as EPS compounds at 15% annually.
About $10 to $12
More likely if Hagerty delivers steady premium growth near 8% annually, underwriting results normalize, the Bennetts acquisition requires more investment than initially modeled, and the P/E settles around 30x, producing a modestly negative total return from the current price.
About $5 to $6
More likely if collector-car values decline, loss ratios deteriorate, the Bennetts integration underperforms, investment income remains pressured, or the market re-rates the stock to 20x or below on earnings stagnation.
HGTY AI technical analysis
HGTY AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The August 3 intraday quote was $11.54. This static page does not fetch live data, so verify the current quote, volume, moving averages, and the August 5 earnings report in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.54 | Intraday quote on August 3, 2026 used for market-cap verification. |
| Near support | $11.40 to $10.84 | August 3 intraday low of $11.40 and the lowest analyst target of $10.84; not a guaranteed floor. |
| Major support | Near $8.81 | 52-week low. A move toward this level would signal material negative sentiment. |
| Near resistance | $13.00 to $14.00 | A J.P. Morgan target near $13.00 and the 52-week high at $14.00. A breakout above $14.00 would be a notable development. |
| Moving averages | Not available at cutoff | Verify 50-day and 200-day moving averages from a live chart, as volume is moderate. |
| Momentum | Neutral | The stock sits between the 52-week range and near the average analyst target. RSI and MACD should be checked on a live platform. |
| Volume | About 137,000 shares daily average | A breakout on above-average volume carries more weight than a low-volume move. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.79 | Below market beta, but earnings and acquisition news can produce outsized single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $10.50 | A confirmed break below near-term support should prompt a review of both price action and the operating thesis. |
HGTY AI trading strategy
The HGTY AI trading strategy is a research framework, not a personalized recommendation. Use live prices and dates because this static analysis can become stale between earnings releases, and the next report is due August 5, 2026.
Monitor whether HGTY holds above the $11.40 area and builds volume to challenge the $13.00 to $14.00 resistance zone after the August 5 Q2 2026 report.
Use a predefined position size and reconsider the setup after a sustained close below $10.50.
Study pullbacks toward the $11.40 to $10.84 support area only alongside stable premium growth, loss ratios, and membership trends.
Do not treat a support level as a buy signal without a business check. Avoid averaging down when underwriting margins or collector-car market indicators deteriorate.
Track written premiums, policy count, loss ratio, combined ratio, membership revenue, investment income, Bennetts integration progress, and cash flow at each quarterly report, starting with Q2 2026 on August 5.
Reduce reliance on a static thesis if loss ratios rise meaningfully, membership growth stalls, acquisition costs exceed plan, or guidance is lowered.
Investment research summary
Enthusiast vehicle owners insure and transact through Hagerty because the brand understands collector cars, while Hagerty earns premiums, membership fees, and auction commissions from a loyal and relatively affluent customer base.
Specialized underwriting knowledge, the Hagerty Drivers Club community, proprietary valuation tools, the Broad Arrow auction brand, and long-standing relationships with collectors and dealers create advantages that are difficult but not impossible to replicate.
The thesis can fail if collector-car values enter a sustained decline, underwriting loss ratios spike from adverse selection or catastrophes, the Bennetts acquisition fails to deliver expected synergies, management overpays for future acquisitions, or the market re-rates the stock on slower growth or higher risk perception.
Management is prioritizing premium growth, geographic expansion, product diversification, and acquisitions. The family-led structure provides strategic continuity, but capital allocation discipline matters more as the company scales and takes on integration risk.
Classic and enthusiast vehicle ownership, membership-based services, and specialty insurance are established markets with steady demand from a wealthy demographic. The industry faces cyclical risk from economic downturns and questions about whether younger generations will show the same enthusiasm.
The market values Hagerty on expected premium growth, membership expansion, and eventual operating leverage rather than trailing GAAP earnings. A margin of safety would require a lower entry price while premium trends, loss ratios, and integration execution remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HGTY quote, shares, and market capitalization | $11.54 intraday on August 3, 2026; approximately 343.4 million shares; $3.96 billion market capitalization | Google Finance and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $3.96 billion calculated from $11.54 times 343.35 million shares, with 0.09% variance to the reported value | Google Finance, Barchart, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue approximately $1.45 billion (Google Finance sum of four reported quarters); FY2025 net income approximately $49 million (Barchart); Q1 2026 revenue $311.83 million with net loss of $6.52 million | Barchart financial summary and Google Finance income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Revenue of $311.83 million, net loss of $6.52 million (-$0.04 EPS), operating income of $39.57 million, and EBITDA of $49.28 million; Q2 2026 earnings due August 5, 2026 | Google Finance income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | P/E about 38.4x, P/S 2.72x, P/B 6.13x (5.39x on book value per share of $2.14), P/CF 59.97x, and no dividend | Barchart profile and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings and price targets | Six analysts in the past three months: 2 buys and 4 holds. Average 12-month target $12.14, high $15.00, low $10.84 | Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario forecast model | Bullish about $18.3 (15% EPS growth, 40x PE), base about $11.3 (8% growth, 30x PE), bearish about $6.0 (0% growth, 20x PE) over 3 years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model at $11.54 and $0.30 EPS | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $8.81 to $14.00, beta 0.79, average volume about 137,000 shares, short float 0.34 percent; moving averages and RSI from a live chart | Google Finance and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
This HGTY AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if collector-car market trends, premium growth, loss ratios, acquisition integration, investment income, or market valuation changes.
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