Hagerty Inc research snapshot
HGTY AI stock analysis currently sees Hagerty as a niche insurance platform whose membership model, collector-car market leadership, and expanding product lines (insurance, roadside, valuations, auctions) can compound value if premium growth and underwriting margins hold. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose to $311.83 million, while the company reported a net loss of $6.52 million due to seasonal and investment factors. At the $12.23 July 10 close and a verified $4.20 billion market capitalization, the HGTY AI stock forecast depends on policy growth, loss ratios, the Bennetts acquisition integration, investment income, and valuation multiples. This is informational scenario analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$12.23 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$4.20 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Specialty auto insurer with a loyal enthusiast membership, growing premiums, and a valuation that hinges on sustained underwriting profit and expanding distribution
Trend status
Above the 52-week low of $8.81 but below the 52-week high of $14.00, with neutral-to-modestly-positive momentum after the Bennetts acquisition announcement
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hagerty earns from specialty auto insurance premiums, membership fees, roadside assistance, vehicle valuations, and auction commissions, serving the collector-car and enthusiast-vehicle community globally. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust in the enthusiast community, the Hagerty Drivers Club membership, exclusive valuation tools, specialized underwriting expertise, and relationships with collectors and dealers create meaningful switching costs, though larger P&C carriers and online insurance aggregators remain competitive alternatives. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO McKeel Hagerty, son of the founder, has grown the company from a regional insurer to a global automotive lifestyle brand. Recent moves include the Bennetts UK acquisition and Broad Arrow Auctions expansion. Capital allocation discipline and underwriting consistency need continued monitoring. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 annual revenue was approximately $1.46 billion with roughly $49 million in net income. Q1 2026 produced $311.83 million in revenue and a $6.52 million net loss, partly seasonal. Premium growth and policy count have been trending positively. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $12.23, audited math shows a TTM P/E near 39x, about 2.90x sales, 6.54x book value, and roughly 64x TTM free cash flow per share with no dividend. The premium P/E reflects expectations for continued growth and margin expansion. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close at $12.23 sits between the 52-week range of $8.81 to $14.00. The stock has rallied from Q1 2026 lows near $9.69 but remains below the 52-week high, with moderate average daily volume near 174,000 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. Disruption to collector-car values, underwriting loss ratio spikes, acquisition integration risk, interest rate impact on investment income, limited public-company track record, and relatively low trading liquidity all represent material risks. | High |
| AI confidence | Revenue, membership, and market-cap inputs are well documented, but forecasting collector-car market cycles, underwriting margins, and acquisition outcomes remains uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HGTY is not a high-certainty value setup. The niche is defensible but the premium valuation and acquisition-related execution risk leave limited room for error. | Medium-low |
HGTY AI stock forecast
The HGTY AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target. The auditable three-year model starts with $0.31 in TTM EPS and applies different growth and valuation assumptions. It is a sensitivity exercise, not a promise.
About $17 to $20
More likely if policy count and premium growth stay strong, loss ratios remain favorable, the Bennetts acquisition adds to earnings in year two, investment income recovers, and investors expand the P/E multiple toward 40x as earnings compound at 15% annually.
About $10 to $13
More likely if Hagerty delivers steady premium growth near 8% annually, underwriting results normalize, the Bennetts acquisition requires more investment than initially modeled, and the P/E settles around 30x, producing a mildly negative total return from the current price.
About $5 to $7
More likely if collector-car values decline, loss ratios deteriorate, the Bennetts integration underperforms, investment income remains pressured, or the market re-rates the stock to 20x or below on earnings stagnation.
HGTY AI technical analysis
HGTY AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close was $12.23. This static page does not fetch live data, so verify the current quote, volume, moving averages, and earnings date in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $12.23 | July 10, 2026 close used for market-cap verification. |
| Near support | $11.50 to $12.00 | Area near recent trading lows; not a guaranteed floor. |
| Major support | Near $8.81 | 52-week low from August 2025. A move toward this level would signal material negative sentiment. |
| Near resistance | $13.00 to $14.00 | 52-week high at $14.00. A breakout above this level would be a notable technical development. |
| Moving averages | Not available at cutoff | Verify 50-day and 200-day moving averages from a live chart, as the stock has moderate trading volume. |
| Momentum | Moderately positive | The stock has rallied from Q1 2026 lows near $9.69. RSI and MACD should be checked on a live platform. |
| Volume | About 174,000 shares daily average | A breakout supported by above-average volume carries more weight than a low-volume move. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.79 | Lower than market beta, but earnings and acquisition news can produce outsized single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $9.50 | A confirmed break below the Q1 2026 rally base should prompt a review of both price action and the operating thesis. |
HGTY AI trading strategy
The HGTY AI trading strategy is a research framework, not a personalized recommendation. Use live prices and dates because this static analysis can become stale between earnings releases.
Monitor whether HGTY holds above the $11.50 area and builds volume to challenge the $13.00 to $14.00 resistance zone after verified operating updates.
Use a predefined position size and reconsider the setup after a sustained close below $9.50.
Study pullbacks toward support areas only alongside stable premium growth, loss ratios, and membership trends.
Do not treat a support level as a buy signal without a business check. Avoid averaging down when underwriting margins or collector-car market indicators deteriorate.
Track written premiums, policy count, loss ratio, combined ratio, membership revenue, investment income, Bennetts integration progress, and cash flow at each quarterly report.
Reduce reliance on a static thesis if loss ratios rise meaningfully, membership growth stalls, acquisition costs exceed plan, or guidance is lowered.
Investment research summary
Enthusiast vehicle owners insure and transact through Hagerty because the brand understands collector cars, while Hagerty earns premiums, membership fees, and auction commissions from a loyal, relatively affluent customer base.
Specialized underwriting knowledge, the Hagerty Drivers Club community, proprietary valuation tools, trusted auction brand (Broad Arrow), and long-standing relationships with collectors, dealers, and insurers create competitive advantages that are difficult but not impossible to replicate.
The thesis can fail if collector-car values enter a sustained decline, underwriting loss ratios spike from adverse selection or catastrophes, the Bennetts acquisition fails to deliver expected synergies, management overpays for future acquisitions, or the market re-rates the stock on slower growth or higher risk perception.
Management is prioritizing premium growth, geographic expansion, product diversification, and acquisitions. The family-led leadership provides strategic continuity, but capital allocation discipline matters more as the company scales and takes on integration risk.
Classic and enthusiast vehicle ownership, membership-based services, and specialty insurance are long-established markets with steady demand from an aging but wealthy demographic. The industry faces cyclical risk from broader economic downturns and potential shifts in younger-generation car enthusiasm.
The market values Hagerty on expected premium growth, membership expansion, and eventual operating leverage rather than trailing GAAP earnings. A margin of safety would require a lower entry price while premium trends, loss ratios, and integration execution remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HGTY quote, shares, and market capitalization | $12.23 close on July 10, 2026; approximately 343 million shares; $4.20 billion market capitalization | Google Finance and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $4.20 billion calculated from $12.23 times 343.35 million shares, with 0.00% variance to the reported value | Google Finance, Barchart, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue approximately $1.45 billion; FY2025 net income approximately $49 million (Barchart); Q1 2026 revenue $311.83 million with net loss -$6.52 million | Barchart financial summary and Google Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Revenue of $311.83 million, net loss of $6.52 million (-$0.04 EPS), operating income of $39.57 million, and EBITDA of $49.28 million | Google Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | P/E 39.45x, P/S 2.90x, P/B 6.54x, P/FCF 64.37x, and no dividend | Barchart profile and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario forecast model | Bullish ~$18.9 (15% EPS growth, 40x PE), base ~$11.7 (8% growth, 30x PE), bearish ~$6.2 (0% growth, 20x PE) over 3 years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model at $12.23 and $0.31 EPS | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $8.81 to $14.00, beta 0.79, average volume 174,000 shares, available moving averages and RSI from live chart | Google Finance and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
This HGTY AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if collector-car market trends, premium growth, loss ratios, acquisition integration, investment income, or market valuation changes.
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