Paylocity Holding Corporation research snapshot
PCTY AI stock analysis currently reads Paylocity as a cloud-based mid-market HCM, payroll, finance, and IT platform serving roughly 42,000 clients with a unified back-office suite. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, PCTY closed at $118.50, and market cap math using 53.54 million shares implied roughly $6.34 billion. The AI view is constructive on Paylocity product breadth, organic revenue compounding near 14%, strong cash flow, recent Aidora AI-native leave management acquisition, Paylocity Retirement launch, and a forward PEG near 0.82, but the stock remains 40% below its 52-week high and faces small/mid-business employment exposure and competitive pressure from ADP, Paychex, and Workday. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$118.50
Market cap
$6.34 billion using current-share market cap math
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Mid-market cloud HCM and payroll platform with strong organic growth, Aidora AI acquisition, Paylocity Retirement launch, a steep 52-week drawdown, and a forward PE that still prices in mid-teens growth
Trend status
Short-term rebound inside a longer-term downtrend, with PCTY still about 40% below its $197.78 52-week high off a $92.99 April low
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Paylocity provides cloud-based HCM, payroll, finance, and IT solutions to roughly 42,000 mid-market clients, with recurring subscription revenue and strong retention. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from product breadth, unified platform switching costs, payroll compliance knowledge, client data, implementation friction, and expanding AI features via Aidora. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is executing Aidora AI acquisition, Paylocity Retirement launch, product expansion into finance and IT modules, and organic growth while maintaining profitability. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew 13.7% to $1.595 billion, net income grew 9.9% to $227.1 million, and operating cash flow reached $418.2 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $118.50, PCTY traded near 22.0x TTM EPS, 5.3x book value, 17.3x free cash flow, 3.8x sales, and a PEG near 0.82 on forward estimates. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart Technical Opinion rated PCTY a Weak Sell at 24%, with the short-term outlook weak. The stock is rebounding from $92.99 but remains 40% below the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are HCM competition from ADP, Paychex, Workday, UKG, and Rippling; small business employment sensitivity; slowing revenue growth; elevated PE multiple; rate sensitivity; and integration risk from Aidora. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and calculations, medium for trading timing, forward estimates, and multi-year multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. Paylocity has strong product and financial quality, but the stock needs revenue growth reacceleration, Aidora integration progress, and continued margin discipline to justify a higher multiple from current levels. | Medium |
PCTY AI stock forecast
The PCTY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $118.50 close, TTM EPS of $5.38, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $265, a base value near $166, and a bearish value near $93 before dividends.
$230 to $280
More likely if Paylocity sustains 16% to 18% revenue growth, Aidora AI cross-sell improves retention and deal size, Paylocity Retirement gains traction, FY2026 adjusted EPS growth accelerates, and PCTY re-rates toward 28x to 32x earnings.
$155 to $175
More likely if revenue grows near 12%, FY2026 EPS growth remains steady, Aidora integration proceeds without friction, HCM competition is manageable, and PCTY trades near 20x to 24x earnings.
$80 to $100
More likely if HCM sector growth slows, mid-market employment weakens, competition intensifies, Aidora does not generate measurable revenue contribution, or the market re-rates PCTY toward 14x to 16x earnings.
PCTY AI technical analysis
PCTY AI technical analysis shows a mixed picture as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed a $118.50 close with a day range of $116.61 to $120.00, 1-month range of $98.31 to $120.28, and 52-week range of $92.99 to $197.78. Fibonacci retracement from the 52-week range places the 61.8% level near $157.75, the 50% level near $145.38, and the 38.2% level near $133.02. Barchart Technical Opinion rated the stock a Weak Sell with short-term indicators weak. Traders should refresh live moving averages and RSI before acting because quote data updates intraday.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $118.50 | Barchart showed PCTY at $118.50 around the July 10, 2026 close, with a day range of $116.61 to $120.00. |
| Near support (tier 1) | $116.74 to $113.35 | Barchart listed first support at $116.74, second at $114.98, and third at $113.35 from key turning points analysis. |
| Key lower support | $98.31 to $92.99 | The 1-month low was $98.31 on June 22, 2026, and the 52-week low was $92.99 on April 10, 2026. |
| Near resistance (tier 1) | $120.13 to $121.76 | Barchart listed first resistance at $120.13 and second resistance at $121.76 from the key turning points. |
| Higher resistance | $133.02 to $157.75 | The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement is at $133.02, 50% at $145.38, and 61.8% at $157.75 from the 52-week high of $197.78. |
| 52-week high | $197.78 | The 52-week high was reached on August 6, 2025, and the stock remains 40% below that level. |
| 5-day performance | +2.95% | PCTY gained 2.95% in the five trading sessions through July 10, recovering from a $110.48 low to $118.50. |
| 1-month performance | +6.14% | PCTY is up 6.14% from $98.31 on June 22 to the July 10 close, indicating short-term momentum improvement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $114.98, then $98.31 | A close below the second support would weaken the short-term setup, and a break below $98.31 would shift focus to the bearish scenario and a test of the $92.99 52-week low. |
PCTY AI trading strategy
The PCTY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a mid-market HCM cloud platform that has experienced a significant drawdown from its 52-week high. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh checks on FY2026 full-year results when reported in August 2026.
Look for PCTY to hold above $114.98 and break through the $120 to $122 resistance area on above-average volume. Confirm that HCM peer stocks, FY2026 revenue growth, Aidora AI integration, and Paylocity Retirement adoption are constructive before treating the move as a new uptrend.
A failed breakout that closes back below $114.98 with rising volume should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If PCTY pulls back toward $100 to $105 without a negative earnings revision, review HCM sector trends, Paylocity client growth, product expansion, cash flow, and competitive positioning before treating the decline as a lower-risk entry framework.
Do not average down simply because PCTY is a high-growth HCM platform. Sector de-rating, slowing growth, or Aidora integration problems can make an apparently cheap pullback a value trap.
Track FY2026 full-year revenue growth, EPS growth, operating margins, free cash flow conversion, Aidora AI product adoption, Paylocity Retirement client uptake, competitive dynamics with ADP, Paychex, Workday, and Rippling, and employee count trends at client firms.
Reduce confidence if FY2026 revenue growth decelerates below 10%, Aidora integration costs rise, margins contract, or client retention declines.
Investment research summary
Paylocity is paid because mid-market employers need unified cloud-based payroll, HR, benefits, finance, and IT management that reduces administrative burden and complies with regulatory requirements.
The moat is built from product breadth across HCM, payroll, finance, and IT modules, switching costs from deep implementation and client data, payroll compliance expertise, and expanding AI capabilities through Aidora.
The thesis fails if ADP, Paychex, Workday, UKG, or Rippling out-execute Paylocity on AI features and mid-market penetration, if small-mid business employment contracts, if Aidora does not produce measurable returns, or if slowing growth compresses the earnings multiple.
Management is investing in product expansion through Aidora AI acquisition and Paylocity Retirement while maintaining subscription revenue growth and operating margins. The next test is whether product investments and Aidora integration translate into sustained mid-teens revenue growth and margin expansion.
Paylocity benefits from HCM cloud adoption, payroll compliance complexity, HR digitization, AI-assisted service demand, and finance/IT module expansion. The offset is mature market competition and sensitivity to employment cycles among mid-market clients.
The verified scenario model shows significant upside in the base and bull cases if growth continues at double-digit rates, but material downside if the market re-rates PCTY. Margin of safety is moderate only if revenue growth strengthens and margins remain stable or expand.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCTY price | $118.50 close on July 10, 2026 | Barchart overview page | July 10, 2026 |
| Market cap | $6.34 billion | Barchart fundamentals | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 53.54 million | Barchart fundamentals | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.595 billion, up 13.7% | Barchart financial summary | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $227.1 million | Barchart financial summary | July 10, 2026 |
| EPS TTM | $5.38 | Barchart fundamentals | July 10, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow FY2025 | $418.2 million | Barchart financial summary | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $299.7 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Debt / equity ratio | 11.4% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 22.0, PB 5.32, P/S 3.80, P/FCF 17.3, PEG 0.82 | Barchart fundamentals + Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $92.99 to $197.78 | Barchart performance report | July 10, 2026 |
| Key turning points | Support at $116.74, $114.98, $113.35; resistance at $120.13, $121.76, $123.52 | Barchart key turning points | July 10, 2026 |
This PCTY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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