Paylocity Holding Corporation research snapshot
PCTY AI stock analysis currently reads Paylocity as a cloud-based mid-market HCM, payroll, finance, and IT platform serving roughly 42,000 clients with a unified back-office suite. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, PCTY traded near $143.56, and market cap math using 53.54 million shares implied about $7.69 billion. The AI view turned more constructive after Q3 FY26 recurring revenue grew 11.6% year over year, beat guidance, and supported a raised full-year outlook, with the stock rallying roughly 23% in a month on the launch of Paylocity Ignite AI, the Aidora AI-native leave management acquisition, a new $1 billion buyback plan, and strength across HR software peers. The offset is a forward earnings multiple near 17x non-GAAP EPS and an August 4, 2026 Q4 FY26 report that will reset near-term expectations. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$143.56
Market cap
$7.69 billion using current-share market cap math
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Mid-market cloud HCM, payroll, finance, and IT platform that beat Q3 FY26 guidance, launched Paylocity Ignite AI, acquired AI-native Aidora, and added a new $1 billion buyback, with the stock up about 23% in a month into its August 4 earnings report
Trend status
Strong short-term uptrend after a 23% monthly rally, with PCTY back near $143.56 versus a $92.99 April low and a $197.78 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Paylocity provides cloud-based HCM, payroll, finance, and IT solutions to roughly 42,000 mid-market clients, with recurring subscription revenue, 69% gross margin, and strong retention. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from product breadth, unified platform switching costs, payroll compliance knowledge, client data, implementation friction, and expanding AI capabilities through Aidora and Paylocity Ignite AI. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is executing the Aidora acquisition, Paylocity Retirement, the Ignite AI platform rollout, and a new $1 billion buyback while beating guidance and maintaining operating margins. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew 13.7% to $1.595 billion, TTM revenue reached $1.73 billion, TTM net income was $258 million, and TTM free cash flow reached $487 million with strong conversion. | High |
| Valuation | At $143.56, PCTY traded near 30.5x TTM GAAP EPS, about 17x forward non-GAAP EPS, 4.3x sales, 15.2x free cash flow, and 6.3x book value, close to the $153.26 analyst consensus target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart Technical Opinion rated PCTY a 56% Buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. The stock broke above its 200-day average and rallied about 23% in a month to near $143.56. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are HCM competition from ADP, Paychex, Workday, UKG, and Rippling, small business employment sensitivity, decelerating revenue growth, an earnings report on August 4, 2026, and a RSI near 68 after the recent sharp rally. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and calculations, medium for trading timing, forward estimates, and multi-year multiple assumptions around the upcoming earnings report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. Paylocity has strong product and financial quality, but the stock has already rallied to near analyst targets, so further upside now depends on Q4 FY26 results, Aidora and Ignite AI traction, and margin discipline rather than a valuation discount. | Medium |
PCTY AI stock forecast
The PCTY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $143.56 quote, TTM GAAP EPS of $4.68, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $246, a base value near $158, and a bearish value near $89 before dividends, using an 18%, 12%, and 6% EPS growth path at 32x, 24x, and 16x target multiples.
$230 to $270
More likely if Paylocity reports a strong Q4 FY26 on August 4, 2026, sustains low-to-mid-teens revenue growth, Ignite AI and Aidora cross-sell lift retention and deal size, Paylocity Retirement gains traction, and PCTY re-rates toward 28x to 32x earnings.
$150 to $175
More likely if revenue grows near 11% to 12%, FY2027 EPS growth stays steady, Aidora and Ignite AI integrate without friction, HCM competition is manageable, and PCTY trades near 22x to 26x earnings, close to the $153.26 analyst consensus.
$80 to $100
More likely if the August 4, 2026 report disappoints, HCM sector growth slows, mid-market employment weakens, competition intensifies, the one-month momentum rally reverses, or the market re-rates PCTY toward 14x to 16x earnings.
PCTY AI technical analysis
PCTY AI technical analysis turned bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $143.56 quote with a 52-week range of $92.99 to $197.78. Barchart rated the stock a 56% Buy with a strengthening short-term outlook, and key turning points placed first support near $134.65 and first resistance near $139.62 with the price trading above it. The 50-day average was about $116.35 and the 200-day average about $124.79, with RSI near 68 after the rally. Traders should refresh live moving averages and RSI before acting because quote data updates intraday and Q4 FY26 earnings arrive August 4, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $143.56 | StockAnalysis showed PCTY near $143.56 on August 3, 2026, up about 4% on the day, with a day range near $140.11 to $144.40. |
| Near support (tier 1) | $134.65 to $129.67 | Barchart listed first support at $134.65, second at $131.39, and third at $129.67 from key turning points analysis. |
| 200-day and 50-day averages | $124.79 / $116.35 | StockAnalysis showed the 200-day moving average near $124.79 and the 50-day near $116.35, both below the current price and now acting as rising support. |
| Near resistance (tier 1) | $139.62 to $144.60 | Barchart listed first resistance at $139.62, second at $141.35, and third at $144.60, with the price trading above the first two. |
| Fibonacci retracement zone | $145.38 to $157.75 | The Fibonacci 38.2% level is near $133.02, 50% at $145.38, and 61.8% at $157.75 from the 52-week range of $92.99 to $197.78. |
| 52-week high | $197.78 | The 52-week high was reached on August 6, 2025, and the stock remains about 27% below that level after the recent rebound. |
| 52-week low | $92.99 | The 52-week low was set on April 10, 2026, and the stock is up about 54% from that low into the August rally. |
| 1-month performance | +23.53% | Barchart showed PCTY up 23.53% since July 2, 2026, with a one-month low near $110.48 on July 9 and a high near $149.04 on July 29. |
| 3-month performance | +29.73% | Barchart showed PCTY up 29.73% since May 1, 2026, recovering from the $98.31 June 22 low into the July breakout. |
| Momentum and volume context | RSI 68.27, short interest 5.55% | StockAnalysis showed RSI near 68, approaching overbought, with short interest of 2.97 million shares at 5.55% of shares outstanding, which can add volatility around the earnings date. |
| Invalidation | Close below $134.65, then $129.67 | A close below the first support would weaken the short-term setup, and a break below $129.67 would signal a failed breakout toward the 200-day average and the lower $110 to $115 zone. |
PCTY AI trading strategy
The PCTY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a mid-market HCM cloud platform that broke out sharply after Q3 FY26 results and a new $1 billion buyback. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh checks on the Q4 FY26 report due August 4, 2026.
Look for PCTY to hold above the $134.65 to $139.62 zone and push through the $144.60 resistance on above-average volume after the August 4, 2026 earnings report. Confirm that recurring revenue growth, Aidora and Ignite AI adoption, and FY2027 guidance are constructive before treating the breakout as a durable new uptrend.
A failed move that closes back below $134.65 with rising volume should reduce confidence in the trend setup, especially if the earnings report disappoints.
If PCTY pulls back toward the $115 to $125 zone, where the 50-day and 200-day averages sit, review Q4 FY26 results, recurring revenue growth, margins, and the buyback execution before treating the decline as a lower-risk entry framework.
Do not buy a pullback just because PCTY was weak earlier in 2026. The stock already rallied about 23% in a month, so an apparently cheap dip near $125 could still extend lower if guidance is soft or sector momentum fades.
Track Q4 FY26 and FY2027 revenue growth, non-GAAP EPS, operating margins, free cash flow conversion, Aidora and Ignite AI product adoption, Paylocity Retirement client uptake, competitive dynamics with ADP, Paychex, Workday, and Rippling, and client retention data.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth decelerates below 10%, Aidora or Ignite AI does not produce measurable adoption, margins contract, or the August 4, 2026 report misses on revenue or guidance.
Investment research summary
Paylocity is paid because mid-market employers need unified cloud-based payroll, HR, benefits, finance, and IT management that reduces administrative burden and complies with regulatory requirements.
The moat is built from product breadth across HCM, payroll, finance, and IT modules, switching costs from deep implementation and client data, payroll compliance expertise, and expanding AI capabilities through Aidora and the newly launched Paylocity Ignite AI.
The thesis fails if ADP, Paychex, Workday, UKG, or Rippling out-execute Paylocity on AI features and mid-market penetration, if small to mid business employment contracts, if Aidora and Ignite AI do not produce measurable returns, or if the August 4, 2026 report disappoints and snaps the momentum rally.
Management beat Q3 FY26 guidance, raised the full-year outlook, launched Ignite AI, acquired Aidora, introduced Paylocity Retirement, and authorized a new $1 billion buyback while staying profitable. The next test is whether these product investments translate into sustained low-to-mid-teens revenue growth and margin expansion in FY2027.
Paylocity benefits from HCM cloud adoption, payroll compliance complexity, HR digitization, AI-assisted service demand, and finance and IT module expansion. The offset is mature market competition and sensitivity to employment cycles among mid-market clients.
The verified scenario model shows upside in the base and bull cases if growth holds in the low-to-mid teens, but the stock has already rallied to near the $153.26 analyst consensus, so margin of safety is moderate and depends on Q4 FY26 results and continued buyback execution rather than a valuation discount.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCTY price | $143.56 quote on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $7.69 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 53.54 million, down 2.46% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.73 billion, up 11.31% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.595 billion, up 13.74% | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $258.04 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS TTM (GAAP) | $4.67 to $4.69 | StockAnalysis statistics + Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward PE (non-GAAP) | About 16.97x at $143.56 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow TTM | $507.93 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow TTM | $486.96 million, $9.09 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $299.73 million, total debt $134.56 million, net cash $165.17 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE TTM 30.50, P/S 4.27, P/B 6.25, P/FCF 15.16, EV/EBITDA 15.14 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability | Gross margin 69.42%, operating margin 21.35%, ROE 21.60%, ROIC 24.74% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $92.99 to $197.78 | StockAnalysis overview + Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Key turning points | Support at $134.65, $131.39, $129.67; resistance at $139.62, $141.35, $144.60 | Barchart key turning points | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy, average target $153.26, range $128 to $250 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Q4 FY26 results due August 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics + Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
This PCTY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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