Paycom Software, Inc. research snapshot
PAYC AI stock analysis currently reads Paycom as a profitable, recurring-revenue human capital management software business that has rebuilt its short-term technical trend while keeping a slower fundamental growth reset. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $163.96 on July 31, with an estimated market capitalization of $7.64 billion using 46.63 million shares. The business remains financially strong, but the AI stock analysis is not an automatic buy: 2026 guidance calls for only 6% to 7% revenue growth, Q2 2026 results arrive on August 5 and will test the rebound, competition is intense, and the company borrowed on its revolver to fund large first-quarter repurchases. The value of the stock depends on whether automation adoption, client retention, and disciplined capital allocation can restore durable growth without over-leveraging the balance sheet. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational use only.
Current price
$163.96 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$7.64 billion using 46.63 million shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality HCM software with a stronger short-term trend, a slower growth reset, and repurchase-funded leverage to watch
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July rebound, with Q2 2026 earnings due August 5
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Paycom sells cloud HCM software that handles payroll, HR, time, talent, and compliance workflows for small and mid-sized employers, with TTM revenue near $2.09 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from payroll reliability, compliance knowledge, integrated employee data, implementation friction, recurring workflows, and scale, but it faces strong platform competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Chad Richison has kept Paycom highly profitable and shareholder-return focused, while the large buyback program funded partly with revolver borrowing and executive incentives require continued scrutiny. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose 9.36% to $2.093 billion, TTM free cash flow reached $445.8 million, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 7.8% to $571.9 million with GAAP net income of $155.7 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $163.96, the verified model showed about 19.15 times trailing GAAP EPS and a 5.83% free cash flow yield, with a forward PE of 14.50, but the multiple still assumes durable cash generation after slower growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $163.96 on July 31, above the reported 50-day average near $139.17 and 200-day average near $145.02, after a rebound that peaked near $172.54 on July 29. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are slower HCM demand, client churn, aggressive competitors, AI disruption, cyber and regulatory incidents, the August 5 report, interest-rate exposure, and repurchase-funded leverage. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI can organize Paycom filings and calculate scenarios, but it cannot reliably forecast client wins, AI product adoption, the August 5 result, market multiples, or stock prices. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business quality is clearer than the future return. The stock needs sustained retention, automation adoption, and cash generation, plus a debt level that does not constrain flexibility. | Medium |
PAYC AI stock forecast
The PAYC AI stock forecast uses the July 31 close of $163.96, TTM GAAP EPS of $8.56, and a three-year scenario model audited with financial_rigor.py. The illustrative model produced a bullish value near $279, a base value near $173, and a bearish value near $109. These are not analyst targets or promises. They show how different combinations of EPS growth and valuation multiples can change the result, and the August 5 earnings release will update the inputs.
About $260 to $290 in the model
More likely if recurring revenue growth reaccelerates, IWant, Beti, GONE, and the newer Asset Management tool improve client ROI, retention stays near or above 91%, margins remain strong, buybacks reduce the share count without excess leverage, and the market supports about a 22 times earnings multiple.
About $165 to $185 in the model
More likely if 2026 guidance is met, recurring revenue grows in the high single digits, free cash flow remains near 20% of revenue, client growth stays positive, and PAYC trades near a 16 times earnings multiple.
About $100 to $120 in the model
More likely if new-client growth weakens, retention falls, competitors use lower prices or better AI workflows to win accounts, the August 5 report disappoints, debt-funded repurchases constrain flexibility, or the market rerates PAYC toward a 12 times earnings multiple.
PAYC AI technical analysis
PAYC AI technical analysis turned constructive at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The latest verified close was $163.96 on July 31, after a rebound from the July 10 close near $139.08 that peaked at an intraday high near $172.54 on July 29. StockAnalysis reported a 200-day moving average near $145.02 and a 50-day average near $139.17, so the price was above both longer-term trend references. Near support sits around $156 to $157 from the July 30 and July 31 session lows, with the 200-day average area near $145 as the next reference. Resistance is around $165 from the July 31 high, then the $172.54 July peak. Q2 2026 earnings on August 5 are the next catalyst and can change these levels quickly. Refresh live chart data before acting because historical vendors can differ by a few cents.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Latest verified close | $163.96 | StockAnalysis quote for July 31, 2026 at market close. Other vendors reported small differences in the same period. |
| Near support | $156 to $157 | The July 30 low was reported near $156.41 and the July 31 low near $157.42. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the short-term uptrend. |
| Moving average support | 200-day average near $145.02 | StockAnalysis reported this reference during the August 2026 data window. PAYC traded above it at the stated cutoff, with the 50-day average near $139.17 below. |
| Near resistance | $165 to $172.54 | The July 31 high was reported near $165.00, with the July 29 intraday high near $172.54 as the next resistance reference above. |
| Momentum | Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI near 65.30 | Price holding above both moving averages is constructive, though an RSI near 65 means the move is no longer oversold and a post-earnings stall is possible. |
| Volume | 865,803 shares on July 31; 1,156,267 shares on July 30 | Recent volume varied materially across sessions. A breakout or breakdown should be checked for volume expansion rather than price alone. |
| Volatility | 52-week range about $104.90 to $248.95 | The wide range shows meaningful repricing risk even though the reported beta was about 0.80. |
| Invalidation | Close below $156 to $157, then the $145 area | A break of the $156 to $157 zone would weaken the short-term uptrend. A move below the 200-day average area near $145 would signal a more durable pullback. It would not by itself change the long-term business case. |
PAYC AI trading strategy
The PAYC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines price confirmation with the operating data that matters for a payroll platform: recurring revenue, client retention, new-client growth, automation adoption, margins, free cash flow, and leverage. The August 5 earnings release is the next scheduled fundamental catalyst.
Look for PAYC to hold above the $156 to $157 area and the 200-day average near $145, then break above the $165 to $172.54 resistance with stronger volume. Confirm that revenue guidance, retention, client count, and automation products are improving rather than relying on the chart alone, and wait for the August 5 report for the next fundamental read.
A failed attempt near $165 followed by a close below $156 to $157 weakens the setup. A close below the 200-day average area near $145 invalidates the short-term trend thesis.
If PAYC pulls back toward $145 to $157 without a guidance cut, review the valuation, client retention, new-client wins, competitive pricing, cash flow, debt, and the August 5 result before treating the move as a possible mean-reversion framework.
Do not average down solely because PAYC is profitable or below its prior high. Falling retention, a weak earnings report, or weaker product adoption can make a low price a value trap.
Track recurring revenue growth, the 91% annual revenue retention benchmark, parent-company client count, employee records, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, share count, debt, dividend payments, and the adoption of Beti, GONE, IWant, and Asset Management, plus the August 5 Q2 2026 report.
Reduce confidence if growth slows while retention, client count, margins, or free cash flow weaken, or if repurchases require substantially more borrowing.
Investment research summary
Paycom is paid because employers need payroll, tax, HR, time, talent, and compliance workflows to run accurately every pay cycle. A single integrated database can reduce duplicate work, but the customer still pays for reliability, support, implementation, and regulatory execution.
The moat comes from switching costs, payroll trust, compliance knowledge, employee data, recurring workflow integration, and scale. It is real but not absolute: Paycom competes with ADP, Dayforce, Intuit, Oracle, Paychex, Paylocity, SAP, ServiceNow, UKG, Workday, and many regional providers.
The thesis can fail if employers choose cheaper or easier platforms, AI reduces implementation and switching friction, the August 5 report disappoints, product errors damage payroll trust, cyber incidents expose sensitive data, labor weakness reduces client demand, or management spends too aggressively on borrowed funds for buybacks before growth returns.
Founder and CEO Chad Richison remains a central decision maker and also serves as board chair. Paycom has used dividends and repurchases to return capital, including $1.060 billion of first-quarter 2026 repurchases, funded partly by $675 million drawn on a revolver whose commitments were increased to $1.46 billion in March and $2.125 billion in April 2026. The board also grew from six to eight directors in July 2026 with the appointment of former CFO Craig Boelte and former CIO William Kerber. The key management test is whether capital returns preserve flexibility for product investment and balance-sheet repair.
HCM digitization, payroll complexity, compliance requirements, employee self-service, and AI-assisted automation support a long runway. The counterpoint is that HCM is a crowded, mature category where price, service, integrations, security, and product quality can shift customer decisions.
At $163.96, the audited model showed 19.15 times trailing GAAP EPS, a forward PE of 14.50, about 17.15 times calculated free cash flow per share, and a 0.91% dividend yield. The margin of safety is moderate rather than obvious: it depends on free cash flow staying durable after capital expenditure, growth not falling below the market expectation, and buybacks not adding excessive leverage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC latest verified price | $163.96 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis PAYC overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $7.64 billion and 46.63 million shares | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue | $2.052 billion, up 9.0% year over year | Paycom 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| 2025 GAAP net income and diluted EPS | $453.4 million and $8.08 | Paycom 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, and EPS | $2.093 billion, $469.7 million, and $8.56 as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $445.8 million, or 21.3% of revenue | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GAAP net income | $571.9 million revenue and $155.7 million net income | Paycom Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash, debt, and repurchases | $153.9 million cash, $675.0 million long-term debt, and $1.060 billion of share repurchases | Paycom Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Client and retention metrics | 91% annual revenue retention, 39,199 clients or about 20,300 parent-company clients, and 7.4 million employee records in 2025 | Paycom 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | $2.175 billion to $2.195 billion revenue and $950 million to $970 million adjusted EBITDA | Paycom Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 19.15, forward PE 14.50, P/FCF 17.15, and PEG 1.15 | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 200-day moving average near $145.02, 50-day near $139.17, July 29 high near $172.54, and July 31 volume of 865,803 shares | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics and history | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026, after market close | Paycom earnings release date announcement via Business Wire | August 3, 2026 |
This PAYC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, tax considerations, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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