Paycom Software, Inc. research snapshot
PAYC AI stock analysis currently reads Paycom as a profitable, recurring-revenue human capital management software business with a strong payroll workflow and a credible automation strategy. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $139.08 on July 10, with an estimated market capitalization of $6.48 billion using 46.63 million shares. The business is financially strong, but the AI stock analysis is not an automatic buy: 2026 guidance calls for only 6% to 7% revenue growth, competition is intense, and the value of the stock depends on whether automation, client retention, and disciplined capital allocation can restore durable growth. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational use only.
Current price
$139.08 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$6.48 billion using 46.63 million shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality HCM software with strong cash generation, a slower growth reset, and execution risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound from the June low, but still below the reported 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Paycom sells cloud HCM software that handles payroll, HR, time, talent, and compliance workflows for small and mid-sized employers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from payroll reliability, compliance knowledge, integrated employee data, implementation friction, recurring workflows, and scale, but it faces strong platform competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Chad Richison has kept Paycom highly profitable and shareholder-return focused, while the large buyback program and executive incentives require continued scrutiny. | Medium |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue rose 9.0% to $2.052 billion and free cash flow rose to $403.5 million; Q1 2026 revenue rose 7.8% to $571.9 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $139.08, the verified model showed about 17.21 times 2025 GAAP EPS and a 6.22% free cash flow yield, but the multiple still assumes durable cash generation after slower growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock rebounded from the June low, but the latest verified price remained below a reported 200-day moving average near $150.07. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are slower HCM demand, client churn, aggressive competitors, AI disruption, cyber and regulatory incidents, interest-rate exposure, and repurchase-funded leverage. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI can organize Paycom filings and calculate scenarios, but it cannot reliably forecast client wins, AI product adoption, market multiples, or stock prices. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business quality is clearer than the future return. The stock needs sustained retention, automation adoption, and cash generation to support a higher value. | Medium |
PAYC AI stock forecast
The PAYC AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $139.08, 2025 diluted EPS of $8.08, and a three-year scenario model audited with financial_rigor.py. The illustrative model produced a bullish value near $249.70, a base value near $173.00, and a bearish value near $114.80. These are not analyst targets or promises. They show how different combinations of EPS growth and valuation multiples can change the result.
About $225 to $250 in the model
More likely if recurring revenue growth reaccelerates, IWant, Beti, GONE, and other automation products improve client ROI, retention stays near or above 91%, margins remain strong, buybacks reduce the share count without excess leverage, and the market supports about a 22 times earnings multiple.
About $160 to $180 in the model
More likely if 2026 guidance is met, recurring revenue grows in the high single digits, free cash flow remains near 20% of revenue, client growth stays positive, and PAYC trades near a 17 times earnings multiple.
About $110 to $120 in the model
More likely if new-client growth weakens, retention falls, competitors use lower prices or better AI workflows to win accounts, debt-funded repurchases constrain flexibility, or the market rerates PAYC toward a 13 times earnings multiple.
PAYC AI technical analysis
PAYC AI technical analysis is mixed at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The latest verified close was $139.08 on July 10, after a rebound from the June 30 close near $125.68. StockAnalysis reported a 200-day moving average near $150.07, so the price was still below the longer-term trend reference. Recent price action placed near resistance around $146 and near support around $132 to $133, while the June low near $123.85 to $125.76 is the more important downside reference. Refresh live chart data before acting because historical vendors can differ by a few cents.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Latest verified close | $139.08 | StockAnalysis quote for July 10, 2026 at market close. Other vendors reported small differences in the same period. |
| Near support | $132 to $133 | The July 9 session low was reported near $132.58. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the short-term rebound. |
| Lower swing support | $123.85 to $125.76 | This zone contains the late-June and June 30 lows in the available historical data. |
| Near resistance | $142 to $146 | Recent sessions traded through the low $140s, with a July 7 high reported near $146.00. |
| Moving average | 200-day average near $150.07 | StockAnalysis reported this reference during the July 2026 data window. PAYC remained below it at the stated cutoff. |
| Momentum | Rebound from late-June lows, longer trend unconfirmed | The rebound is constructive short term, but price below the 200-day average does not confirm a durable trend reversal. |
| Volume | 864,623 shares on July 9; 295,100 shares on July 10 | Recent volume varied materially across sessions. A breakout should be checked for volume expansion rather than price alone. |
| Volatility | 52-week range about $104.90 to $248.95 | The wide range shows meaningful repricing risk even though the reported beta was about 0.80. |
| Invalidation | Close below $123.85 to $125.76 | A break of the June support zone would invalidate a simple short-term rebound thesis. It would not by itself change the long-term business case. |
PAYC AI trading strategy
The PAYC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines price confirmation with the operating data that matters for a payroll platform: recurring revenue, client retention, new-client growth, automation adoption, margins, free cash flow, and leverage.
Look for PAYC to reclaim and hold the $142 to $146 area, then move above the 200-day average near $150.07 with stronger volume. Confirm that revenue guidance, retention, client count, and automation products are improving rather than relying on the chart alone.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $132 to $133 weakens the setup. A close below the June support zone invalidates the short-term trend thesis.
If PAYC pulls back toward $124 to $133 without a guidance cut, review the valuation, client retention, new-client wins, competitive pricing, cash flow, and debt before treating the move as a possible mean-reversion framework.
Do not average down solely because PAYC is profitable or below its prior high. Falling retention or weaker product adoption can make a low price a value trap.
Track recurring revenue growth, the 91% annual revenue retention benchmark, parent-company client count, employee records, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, share count, debt, dividend payments, and the adoption of Beti, GONE, and IWant.
Reduce confidence if growth slows while retention, client count, margins, or free cash flow weaken, or if repurchases require more borrowing.
Investment research summary
Paycom is paid because employers need payroll, tax, HR, time, talent, and compliance workflows to run accurately every pay cycle. A single integrated database can reduce duplicate work, but the customer still pays for reliability, support, implementation, and regulatory execution.
The moat comes from switching costs, payroll trust, compliance knowledge, employee data, recurring workflow integration, and scale. It is real but not absolute: Paycom competes with ADP, Dayforce, Intuit, Oracle, Paychex, Paylocity, SAP, ServiceNow, UKG, Workday, and many regional providers.
The thesis can fail if employers choose cheaper or easier platforms, AI reduces implementation and switching friction, product errors damage payroll trust, cyber incidents expose sensitive data, labor weakness reduces client demand, or management spends too aggressively on buybacks before growth returns.
Founder and CEO Chad Richison remains a central decision maker and also serves as board chair. Paycom has used dividends and repurchases to return capital, including $1.060 billion of first-quarter 2026 repurchases, partly funded by $675 million of revolving debt. The key management test is whether capital returns preserve flexibility for product investment and balance-sheet repair.
HCM digitization, payroll complexity, compliance requirements, employee self-service, and AI-assisted automation support a long runway. The counterpoint is that HCM is a crowded, mature category where price, service, integrations, security, and product quality can shift customer decisions.
At $139.08, the audited model showed 17.21 times 2025 GAAP EPS, 16.08 times calculated free cash flow per share, and a 1.08% dividend yield. The margin of safety is moderate rather than obvious: it depends on free cash flow staying durable after capital expenditure, growth not falling below the market expectation, and buybacks not adding excessive leverage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC latest verified price | $139.08 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis PAYC overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $6.48 billion and 46.63 million shares | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue | $2.052 billion, up 9.0% year over year | Paycom 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 GAAP net income and diluted EPS | $453.4 million and $8.08 | Paycom 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 free cash flow | $403.5 million, or 19.7% of revenue | Paycom 2025 full-year results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GAAP net income | $571.9 million revenue and $155.7 million net income | Paycom Q1 2026 Form 8-K exhibit | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $153.9 million corporate cash and $675.0 million revolving debt | Paycom Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Client and retention metrics | 91% annual revenue retention, 20,300 parent-company clients, and 7.4 million employee records in 2025 | Paycom 2025 full-year results | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | $2.175 billion to $2.195 billion revenue and $950 million to $970 million adjusted EBITDA | Paycom 2025 full-year results | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 16.25, forward PE 12.30, P/FCF 14.55, and PEG 0.98 | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 200-day moving average near $150.07, July 7 high near $146.00, and July 9 volume of 864,623 shares | StockAnalysis PAYC statistics and history | July 12, 2026 |
This PAYC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, tax considerations, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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