Plains GP Holdings, L.P. research snapshot
PAGP AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Plains GP Holdings as the sponsor of Plains All American Pipeline, holding an indirect non-economic controlling general partner interest in PAA and an indirect limited partner interest in PAA through Plains AAP. The latest available regular-session close was $26.33 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization of about $5.21 billion using the 197,904,124 Class A shares outstanding per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q. The constructive case is management raising the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint by $130 million to $2.88 billion, the completed sale of the Canadian NGL business to Keyera with net proceeds near $3.3 billion, expected leverage migration toward the low end of the 3.25x to 3.75x target range, a $0.4175 quarterly Class A distribution payable August 14, 2026, and a stronger crude oil macro after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The caution is that the stock trades above the MarketBeat consensus price target of $23.36 and the StockAnalysis target of $24.64, a dividend payout ratio above 100% of trailing earnings, TTM earnings weakness, GP structure complexity, meaningful consolidated debt, and crude volume, commodity, and regulatory exposure. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$26.33 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$5.21 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Constructive fundamental setup from raised 2026 EBITDA guidance and a completed NGL divestiture, but the stock trades above consensus price targets with a payout ratio above trailing earnings and GP structure complexity
Trend status
Bullish momentum near the top of the 52-week range, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 63
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PAGP owns an indirect non-economic controlling general partner interest in PAA and an indirect limited partner interest in PAA through Plains AAP, so the quality depends on PAA crude gathering, transportation, storage, terminal, and commercial operations rather than on PAGP itself. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat sits in PAA hard-to-replicate rights of way, permits, storage, terminals, basin connections, and operating know-how. PAGP benefits from PAA scale, but its GP interest can be diluted or restructured over a long horizon. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman, CEO, and President Willie Chiang also leads PAA. The team is executing a pure-play crude midstream shift: the Canadian NGL divestiture is complete with net proceeds near $3.3 billion, Cactus III is integrated, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised. The key test for PAGP shareholders is whether PAA prioritizes distribution growth and coverage that translates into GP-level cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 consolidated revenue was $44.262 billion and net income attributable to PAGP was $260 million, with basic EPS of $1.31. TTM (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) attributable net income was about $196 million, roughly $0.99 per Class A share. Q1 2026 attributable net income was $20 million, down from $84 million in Q1 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $26.33, financial_rigor.py calculates about 26.60x trailing EPS, 4.09x book value, and a 6.34% dividend yield. The forward P/E is about 13.5x on the $1.95 FY2026 consensus EPS, well below the trailing multiple because earnings are expected to recover. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was above the 50-day moving average near $24.89 and the 200-day moving average near $21.88, with RSI near 63.18 and the 52-week high near $26.78 as the main cap. That is a constructive but not stretched momentum profile. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because PAGP depends on PAA distributions, which rely on crude volumes, customer activity, leverage, acquisition integration, environmental compliance, permitting, and energy market conditions. The high payout ratio and GP structural complexity add risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported facts and market-cap arithmetic have high data confidence after cross-checks across SEC filings, MarketBeat, and StockAnalysis. Technical indicators, coverage ratios, and future PAA distributions require live verification and carry lower confidence. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. The dividend yield is visible and guidance was raised, but the payout ratio exceeds trailing earnings, the stock trades above consensus targets, and GP-level cash flow depends on PAA distribution policy, crude activity, leverage, and energy market conditions. | Low-medium |
PAGP AI stock forecast
The PAGP AI stock forecast uses a three-year sensitivity framework around the $26.33 cutoff price. Financial_rigor.py calculations using the $1.95 FY2026 consensus EPS with 10%, 6%, and -5% annual growth and terminal P/E assumptions of 18x, 14x, and 9x returned approximately $46.70 in the bullish case, $32.50 in the base case, and $15.00 in the bearish case. These are scenarios, not price targets or promises.
$42 to $50
More likely if crude production and volumes stay healthy, the improved oil macro persists, Cactus III and Permian growth projects contribute as planned, PAA debt reduction continues, PAA distribution growth supports PAGP dividend coverage, and the market re-rates PAGP toward 18x forward earnings.
$29 to $34
More likely if PAA delivers the revised 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint near $2.88 billion, PAGP EPS recovers toward the $1.95 consensus, the $1.67 annual dividend is sustained, leverage settles near the target range, and the market values PAGP near 14x forward earnings with a mid-single-digit yield.
$13 to $17
More likely if crude production or volumes weaken, PAA debt reduction disappoints, PAA distribution growth stalls or is cut, PAGP EPS recovery stalls, the dividend payout ratio stays above 100%, or GP structure complexity leads to a valuation discount below 9x forward earnings.
PAGP AI technical analysis
PAGP AI technical analysis uses the latest available close at the August 3, 2026 cutoff: $26.33 on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis places the 52-week range at $16.69 to $26.78, with the 50-day moving average near $24.89, the 200-day moving average near $21.88, and RSI near 63.18. This static page does not request live chart data, so verify moving averages, RSI, volume, and every price level before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.33 | Latest available regular-session close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $24.89 | The 50-day moving average per StockAnalysis, a nearby monitoring zone below the cutoff close. Validate it against a live chart and crude market context. |
| Deeper support | $21.88 | The 200-day moving average per StockAnalysis, a major trend reference rather than a prediction of where price must stop. |
| Near resistance | $26.78 | Reported 52-week high per StockAnalysis and the primary upside reference at this cutoff. |
| 52-week low | $16.69 | Reported 52-week low per StockAnalysis, a long-horizon reference rather than a near-term floor. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63.18 | A constructive but not overbought reading per StockAnalysis. Confirm live RSI and price structure before treating momentum as current. |
| Volume | 1.93 million shares on July 31 | Above the 20-day average volume near 1.33 million. Compare current volume with recent averages before treating a breakout or breakdown as confirmed. |
| Volatility | Energy, rate, and event sensitive | Crude volume reports, PAA earnings and distribution announcements, acquisitions, debt, dividend changes, regulation, and energy prices can move PAGP sharply. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $24.89 | A confirmed break below the 50-day moving average should trigger a fresh review of PAA volume, guidance, coverage, leverage, and the chosen time horizon. |
PAGP AI trading strategy
The PAGP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with live price and volume data, defined position size, a stop or invalidation rule, dividend coverage analysis, GP structure and tax considerations, PAA operational data, current filings, and your own loss limit.
Wait for PAGP to establish higher highs and higher lows while holding above verified live moving averages, with volume confirmation. Check whether PAA crude volumes, 2026 guidance, Cactus III and Permian project progress, leverage, and PAA distribution coverage support the move.
A failed breakout, a sustained close below the 50-day moving average, or a deterioration in PAA cash flow and distribution coverage should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If PAGP pulls back toward the $24.89 to $25.50 zone without a clear fundamental break, compare the share price with forward P/E, dividend yield, PAA adjusted EBITDA, PAA leverage, and the next PAA results and distribution announcement date.
Do not buy only for the stated yield. Reassess if a lower price reflects weaker volumes, a PAA distribution risk, higher leverage, adverse regulation, or a changed GP structure after the Canadian NGL sale.
Track crude production and basin activity, pipeline volumes, PAA adjusted EBITDA and the $2.88 billion 2026 guidance midpoint, PAA debt and leverage, PAA capital spending, PAA distribution coverage and growth, PAGP dividend payout ratio, GP structural developments, and the regulatory and crude macro environment.
Reduce confidence when PAGP dividend coverage depends on leverage or one-time sale proceeds rather than recurring PAA cash flow and clear distribution coverage.
Investment research summary
Plains GP earns indirectly through its ownership of an indirect non-economic controlling general partner interest in Plains All American Pipeline and an indirect limited partner interest in PAA via Plains AAP. PAA itself earns by connecting oil production with refiners, storage, market hubs, and export outlets through gathering systems, pipelines, terminals, storage, and commercial logistics.
PAA advantage comes from physical networks that take time, permits, capital, contracts, and operating expertise to reproduce. PAGP benefits from PAA network density and basin connections, but its GP interest can be diluted or restructured over a long horizon.
The thesis can fail if crude production or volumes fall, competing infrastructure takes share, Cactus III or Permian growth projects miss expectations, PAA debt remains high, PAA interest costs rise, PAA distribution growth stalls or is cut, PAGP dividend payout ratio stays above 100%, environmental incidents occur, permits become harder to obtain, or the GP structure faces adverse change.
Management is being tested on execution after a major portfolio reshaping: completing the Canadian NGL divestiture with net proceeds near $3.3 billion, integrating Cactus III, capturing cost efficiencies, raising the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint to $2.88 billion, lowering PAA leverage, and balancing PAA distributions with reinvestment. PAGP shareholders depend on these PAA level decisions for their cash flow.
North American crude infrastructure benefits when production, export demand, and basin connectivity need capacity, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption has strengthened the near-term crude macro and North American supply role. The long-term counterweight is that energy demand, upstream drilling, regulation, electrification, and new competing infrastructure can change utilization and returns.
At $26.33, PAGP offered a 6.34% annualized dividend yield with a 26.60x trailing P/E, a 13.5x forward P/E, and a 4.09x price to book in the verified snapshot. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions about PAA cash flow, volume, leverage, rates, capital spending, PAA distribution coverage, and PAGP dividend sustainability, especially because the stock trades above consensus price targets.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $26.33 close on July 31, 2026 multiplied by 197.9 million Class A shares equals $5.21 billion, with a 0.02% market cap verification variance. | StockAnalysis.com and MarketBeat PAGP quotes; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Class A share count | 197,904,124 Class A shares outstanding as of May 1, 2026 per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover page, and 197.9 million weighted average shares for Q1 2026 EPS. | PAGP Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and MarketBeat statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 consolidated revenue | $44.262 billion, cross-checked between the FY2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat with no material difference. | PAGP FY2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to PAGP | $260 million, with basic EPS of $1.31 per Class A share. TTM (Q2 2025 through Q1 2026) attributable net income was about $196 million, roughly $0.99 per Class A share. | PAGP FY2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q income statements | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Q1 2026 revenue of $12.470 billion, operating income of $403 million, net income of $222 million, and net income attributable to PAGP of $20 million, or $0.10 per Class A share, down from $0.42 in Q1 2025. | PAGP Q1 2026 Form 10-Q income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $172 million cash and cash equivalents and about $11.38 billion total debt as of March 31, 2026, including $420 million short-term debt, $9.120 billion senior notes, and $1.836 billion other long-term debt. PAGP Class A shareholders equity was $1.274 billion. | PAGP Q1 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Annual dividend of $1.67 per Class A share with a 6.34% yield. The next quarterly payment of $0.4175 is payable August 14, 2026. Payout ratio is about 169% of trailing earnings per StockAnalysis and about 172% per MarketBeat. | StockAnalysis.com and MarketBeat dividend pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Trailing P/E of about 26.60x on $0.99 TTM EPS, forward P/E of about 13.5x on the $1.95 FY2026 consensus, P/B of about 4.09x on $6.44 book value per share, and a 6.34% dividend yield. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | StockAnalysis reports 15 analysts with a Buy consensus and a $24.64 average target, while MarketBeat reports a Hold consensus with a $23.36 average target, a $27 high, and a $19 low. Both targets sit below the $26.33 close. | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat forecast pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $26.33 close on July 31, 2026, 1.93 million shares traded, a 52-week range of $16.69 to $26.78, a 50-day moving average near $24.89, a 200-day moving average near $21.88, and RSI near 63.18. Moving averages and RSI require live chart confirmation. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and chart pages | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and NGL divestiture | The 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint was raised by $130 million to $2.88 billion. The Canadian NGL divestiture to Keyera is complete with net proceeds near $3.3 billion. 2026 growth capital spending was raised to $400 to $450 million, with maintenance near $185 million. | PAA and PAGP June 15, 2026 capital spending release and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap math passed at 0.02% variance, valuation ratios were computed with exact decimal arithmetic, and three-scenario valuation was run locally. | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 3, 2026 |
This PAGP AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if crude volumes, energy prices, interest rates, PAA leverage, PAA capital spending, PAA distribution policy, PAGP dividend coverage, regulation, GP structural changes, tax treatment, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
