ONEOK, Inc. research snapshot
OKE AI stock analysis currently reads ONEOK as a large U.S. midstream energy infrastructure company with gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export assets. The August 2, 2026 data cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close of $90.81 and a verified market capitalization of $57.22 billion. The setup is constructive because Q1 2026 earnings grew 12% and management raised 2026 guidance, but late-July downgrades from Jefferies and Morgan Stanley, high leverage at about 4.5x net debt to EBITDA, and a price near the average analyst target keep the OKE AI stock forecast measured rather than aggressive. The shares trade above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the next earnings report scheduled for August 3, 2026.
Current price
$90.81
Market cap
$57.22 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Integrated U.S. midstream operator with about 90% fee-based earnings, raised 2026 guidance, high leverage, and a price near the analyst consensus target
Trend status
Constructive but capped, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near the upper end of the analyst target range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ONEOK provides gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and export-linked midstream services across four segments. About 90% of 2025 earnings were fee-based, which supports cash flow visibility. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from hard-to-replicate pipelines, fractionation, storage, basin connectivity, export access, customer contracts, and operating scale across NGLs, gas, refined products, and crude. | Medium-high |
| Management | Pierce H. Norton II has deep energy infrastructure experience and has led ONEOK through the EnLink and Medallion acquisitions. The current test is integration, leverage control, project execution, and dividend coverage. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $35.20 billion and TTM net income is about $3.53 billion. Q1 2026 net income rose 12% to $776 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to about $2.0 billion, and management raised the 2026 net income midpoint to $3.5 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $90.81, financial_rigor.py verifies about 16.22x TTM EPS, 2.56x book value, 25.51x free cash flow per share, 1.63x sales, and a 4.71% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $89.33 and the 200-day average near $81.84, with RSI near 51.47. That is a constructive but not stretched trend, with the 52-week high near $96.07 as the main cap. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated because total debt is about $33.65 billion, net debt to EBITDA is near 4.5x, capital spending remains heavy, and midstream volumes depend on producer activity and energy demand. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because key facts are source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because market multiples, energy volumes, and 2026 guidance delivery can reset quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | OKE is a strong midstream franchise, but the current price already sits near the average analyst target of $95.71, so a wider margin of safety would require a pullback or faster EBITDA and debt-metric improvement. | Medium |
OKE AI stock forecast
The OKE AI stock forecast is scenario-based because ONEOK combines fee-based infrastructure earnings with debt, capital spending, volume, and valuation risk. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $90.81 and TTM EPS of $5.60, financial_rigor.py produces mechanical three-year outputs of about $126.70 in a bullish case, $100.00 in a base case, and $57.60 in a bearish case before dividends. The StockAnalysis consensus target of $95.71 with a low of $88 and a high of $108 is consistent with a measured base case, and the next earnings report on August 3, 2026 will test the raised guidance.
$115 to $130 before dividends
More likely if NGL, refined products, crude, and gas volumes keep growing, Q2 and full-year 2026 results beat the raised guidance, acquisition synergies continue, debt metrics improve, and investors accept a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple.
$92 to $104 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows modestly toward the 2026 consensus of about $5.79, dividend yield carries much of total return, capital spending stays within guidance, and OKE trades near its current earnings multiple.
$55 to $65 before dividends
More likely if producer activity slows, commodity spreads compress, the 2026 guidance raise proves optimistic, capex rises, refinancing costs pressure cash flow, or investors demand a lower multiple for leveraged midstream equities.
OKE AI technical analysis
OKE AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $90.81, a 50-day moving average near $89.33, a 200-day moving average near $81.84, RSI near 51.47, and a 20-day average volume near 3.28 million shares. The stock is above both moving averages and near the top of a 52-week range of $64.02 to $96.07, with the next earnings report on August 3, 2026 as the main near-term catalyst.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.81 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $90.81, with after-hours trading near $91.28. |
| Immediate support | $88.75 to $89.35 | This zone brackets the July 31 day low near $88.74 and the 50-day moving average near $89.33. |
| Deeper support | $81.80 to $82 | This range sits near the 200-day moving average near $81.84 and is the first deeper trend support area. |
| Major support | $64 | StockAnalysis lists the 52-week low at $64.02, which marks the lower edge of the larger trading range. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $96.10 | This range overlaps the StockAnalysis average target near $95.71 and the 52-week high of $96.07. |
| Upper resistance | $103 to $108 | Morgan Stanley set a $103 target after downgrading to Equal Weight, and UBS reiterates Buy with a $108 target, marking the upper resistance zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $89.33, 200-day near $81.84 | Holding above both averages keeps the trend constructive. Losing the 50-day average would reduce short-term momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.47 | Momentum is neutral-to-positive and not stretched into an extreme overbought reading. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.28 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because midstream stocks can react to rate changes, energy prices, guidance, dividends, and analyst actions. |
| Volatility | Watch August 3, 2026 earnings | The Q2 2026 report, guidance, capital spending, leverage, and dividend commentary are the most likely volatility catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $88.75, then below $81.80 | A sustained break below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the broader trend. |
OKE AI trading strategy
The OKE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with fee-based EBITDA, volume growth, acquisition synergies, capital spending, debt, dividend coverage, and energy infrastructure demand, and it treats the August 3, 2026 earnings report as a key information point.
Watch for OKE to hold the $88.75 to $89.35 support zone and push through $95 to $96 with improving volume data, Q2 results that support the raised guidance, and evidence that synergy capture is converting into EBITDA.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $88.75 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to weaker volume, higher capex, or slower deleveraging.
If OKE retests the $81.80 to $82 area without dividend stress or balance-sheet deterioration, compare the lower price with TTM EPS, the 2026 guidance midpoint, free cash flow per share, and debt maturity risk.
Do not treat every yield-driven pullback as attractive if the dividend depends on rising leverage, high capital spending, or optimistic volume assumptions.
Track NGL raw feed throughput, refined products volumes, crude volumes, natural gas processed, segment adjusted EBITDA, maintenance capital, growth capital, total debt, cash, dividend declarations, and credit metrics, with the August 3, 2026 report as the first update.
Position sizing should reflect that OKE is an income-oriented midstream equity with leverage and project risk, not a guaranteed AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ONEOK because producers, refiners, utilities, petrochemical users, exporters, and industrial customers need reliable movement, processing, fractionation, storage, and delivery of hydrocarbons. The business turns physical network capacity into recurring fee-based cash flow.
The moat is strongest in physical infrastructure, right-of-way positions, basin connectivity, fractionation and storage scale, customer contracts, and integrated NGL and gas capabilities. It is weaker where volumes, spreads, and regulation pressure returns.
The thesis fails if recent acquisitions create less value than expected, producer activity slows, capex runs above plan, debt remains high, the 2026 guidance raise proves optimistic, regulators compress returns, or investors overpay for dividend yield without enough free cash flow support.
Pierce H. Norton II brings decades of natural gas and midstream operating experience. Management has to prove that EnLink and Medallion integration, project execution, dividend policy, and leverage targets can coexist without weakening the balance sheet.
North American energy infrastructure benefits from LNG demand, NGL exports, petrochemical needs, power demand, and basin production. The offset is that midstream growth is capital intensive and tied to producer activity, policy, and financing conditions.
At $90.81, OKE trades near the $95.71 average analyst target and close to the base-case model output. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward the 200-day average near $81.84 or if EBITDA growth and debt metrics improve faster than expected.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKE quote reference | $90.81 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis OKE overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $57.22 billion reported and $57.22 billion calculated from $90.81 x 630.15 million shares, a 0.01% difference | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 630.15 million shares outstanding, up 6.32% year over year | StockAnalysis OKE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $35.20 billion revenue and $3.53 billion net income, with FY2025 revenue of $33.63 billion cross-checked against StockAnalysis and the ONEOK FY2025 release | StockAnalysis and ONEOK FY2025 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to ONEOK | $3.39 billion, or $5.42 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $8.02 billion | ONEOK FY2025 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings and 2026 guidance | $776 million net income, up 12%, and about $2.0 billion adjusted EBITDA, up 13%; 2026 net income guidance midpoint raised to $3.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $8.25 billion | ONEOK Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $172 million cash and $33.65 billion total debt | StockAnalysis OKE balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and valuation inputs | $5.60 EPS, $35.49 book value per share, $3.56 FCF per share, $4.28 dividend | StockAnalysis OKE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $89.33, 200-day average $81.84, RSI 51.47, 20-day average volume 3.28 million | StockAnalysis OKE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | 23 analysts, Buy consensus, $95.71 average target, $88 low, $108 high, with Jefferies and Morgan Stanley downgrades in late July 2026 | StockAnalysis OKE forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.07 per quarter, or $4.28 annualized, declared July 15, 2026, with ex-dividend date August 3, 2026 | ONEOK quarterly dividend release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
This OKE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, volumes, interest rates, regulation, capital spending, debt markets, or investor multiples change.
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