ONEOK, Inc. research snapshot
OKE AI stock analysis currently reads ONEOK as a large U.S. midstream energy infrastructure company with strong NGL, refined products, crude, natural gas gathering, processing, and pipeline assets. The July 8, 2026 setup is constructive because Q1 2026 results increased guidance, the stock closed at $90.67, and the shares trade above key moving averages, but it is not a guaranteed buy signal. The OKE AI stock forecast depends on volume growth, fee-based earnings quality, EnLink and Medallion synergy capture, debt management, capital spending, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Current price
$90.67
Market cap
$57.14 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Integrated midstream energy operator with fee-based cash flow, acquisition synergy upside, high leverage, and volume-cycle risk
Trend status
Constructive but not risk-free, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ONEOK provides gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and export-linked midstream services. About 90% of 2025 earnings were fee-based, which supports cash flow visibility. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from hard-to-replicate pipelines, fractionation, storage, basin connectivity, export access, customer contracts, and operating scale across NGLs, gas, refined products, and crude. | Medium-high |
| Management | Pierce H. Norton II has deep energy infrastructure experience and has led ONEOK through major acquisitions. The current test is integration, leverage control, project execution, and dividend coverage. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $33.63 billion and net income attributable to ONEOK was about $3.39 billion. Q1 2026 net income rose to $776 million and management raised 2026 guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $90.67, financial_rigor.py verifies about 16.19x TTM EPS, 2.56x book value, 25.47x free cash flow per share, 1.62x sales, and a 4.72% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $88.69 and the 200-day average near $80.13, with RSI near 56.93. That is a constructive trend with limited near-term target spread. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated because total debt is about $33.65 billion, capital spending remains heavy, and midstream volumes depend on producer activity and energy demand. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because key facts are source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because market multiples and energy volumes can reset quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | OKE is a strong midstream franchise, but the current price needs continued EBITDA growth, dividend coverage, and balance-sheet discipline to create a wider margin of safety. | Medium |
OKE AI stock forecast
The OKE AI stock forecast is scenario-based because ONEOK combines fee-based infrastructure earnings with debt, capital spending, volume, and valuation risk. Using the $90.67 price reference, TTM EPS of $5.60, and the audited three-year model, mechanical outputs are about $127 in a bullish case, $94.50 in a base case, and $57.60 in a bearish case before dividends. StockAnalysis listed a $95.48 average analyst target on July 8, 2026, which supports a measured rather than aggressive base case.
$115 to $130 before dividends
More likely if NGL, refined products, crude, and gas volumes grow, acquisition synergies keep building, 2026 EBITDA guidance proves conservative, debt metrics improve, and investors accept a high-teens earnings multiple.
$88 to $100 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows modestly, dividend yield carries much of total return, capital spending stays within guidance, and OKE trades near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$55 to $65 before dividends
More likely if producer activity slows, commodity spreads compress, integration savings disappoint, capex rises, refinancing costs pressure cash flow, or investors demand a lower multiple for leveraged midstream equities.
OKE AI technical analysis
OKE AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close of $90.67, pre-market trading near $92.47, a 50-day moving average near $88.69, a 200-day moving average near $80.13, RSI near 56.93, and 20-day average volume near 3.83 million shares. The chart is above trend support but close to the average analyst target.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.67 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7, 2026 close at $90.67 and a July 8 pre-market reference near $92.47. |
| Immediate support | $88 to $89 | This zone brackets the 50-day moving average and the recent consolidation area. |
| Deeper support | $80 to $81 | This range sits near the 200-day moving average and is the first deeper trend support area. |
| Major support | $64 to $65 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week low of $64.02, which marks the lower edge of the larger trading range. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $96 | This range overlaps the StockAnalysis average target near $95.48 and the 52-week high of $96.07. |
| Upper resistance | $110 to $113 | This range is near the high end of the StockAnalysis analyst target range and would need stronger earnings or multiple expansion. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $88.69, 200-day near $80.13 | Holding above both averages keeps the trend constructive. Losing the 50-day average would reduce short-term momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.93 | Momentum is positive but not stretched into an extreme overbought reading. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.83 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because midstream stocks can react to rate changes, energy prices, guidance, and dividend expectations. |
| Volatility | Watch August 3, 2026 earnings | The next earnings update, 2026 guidance, capital spending, leverage, and dividend commentary are likely volatility catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $88, then below $80 | A sustained break below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the broader trend. |
OKE AI trading strategy
The OKE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with fee-based EBITDA, volume growth, acquisition synergies, capital spending, debt, dividend coverage, and energy infrastructure demand.
Watch for OKE to hold the $88 to $89 support zone and push through $95 to $96 with improving volume data, stable guidance, and evidence that synergy capture is converting into EBITDA.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $88 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to weaker volume, higher capex, or slower deleveraging.
If OKE retests the $80 to $81 area without dividend stress or balance-sheet deterioration, compare the lower price with TTM EPS, adjusted EBITDA guidance, free cash flow per share, and debt maturity risk.
Do not treat every yield-driven pullback as attractive if the dividend depends on rising leverage, high capital spending, or optimistic volume assumptions.
Track NGL raw feed throughput, refined products volumes, crude volumes, natural gas processed, segment adjusted EBITDA, maintenance capital, growth capital, total debt, cash, dividend declarations, and credit metrics.
Position sizing should reflect that OKE is an income-oriented midstream equity with leverage and project risk, not a guaranteed AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ONEOK because producers, refiners, utilities, petrochemical users, exporters, and industrial customers need reliable movement, processing, fractionation, storage, and delivery of hydrocarbons. The business turns physical network capacity into recurring cash flow.
The moat is strongest in physical infrastructure, right-of-way positions, basin connectivity, fractionation and storage scale, customer contracts, and integrated NGL and gas capabilities. It is weaker where volumes, spreads, and regulation pressure returns.
The thesis fails if recent acquisitions create less value than expected, producer activity slows, capex runs above plan, debt remains high, regulators compress returns, or investors overpay for dividend yield without enough free cash flow support.
Pierce H. Norton II brings decades of natural gas and midstream operating experience. Management has to prove that EnLink and Medallion integration, project execution, dividend policy, and leverage targets can coexist without weakening the balance sheet.
North American energy infrastructure benefits from LNG demand, NGL exports, petrochemical needs, power demand, and basin production. The offset is that midstream growth is capital intensive and tied to producer activity, policy, and financing conditions.
At $90.67, OKE is priced near the average analyst target and close to the base-case model output. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward 200-day support or if EBITDA growth and debt metrics improve faster than expected.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKE quote reference | $90.67 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis OKE overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $57.14 billion reported and $57.12 billion calculated from $90.67 x 630.03 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and ONEOK 2026 proxy | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 630.03 million shares outstanding as of March 23, 2026 | ONEOK 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $33.63 billion, cross-checked against StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | ONEOK FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to ONEOK | $3.39 billion, with financial_rigor.py cross-source variance of 0.04% | ONEOK FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and adjusted EBITDA | $776 million net income and $2.0 billion adjusted EBITDA; 2026 guidance midpoint increased | ONEOK Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $172 million cash and $33.65 billion total debt | StockAnalysis OKE balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and valuation inputs | $5.60 EPS, $35.45 book value per share, $3.56 FCF per share, $4.28 dividend | StockAnalysis OKE statistics and financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $88.69, 200-day average $80.13, RSI 56.93, 20-day average volume 3.83 million | StockAnalysis OKE statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | 23 analysts, Buy consensus, $95.48 average target, $84 low, $113 high | StockAnalysis OKE forecast | July 8, 2026 |
This OKE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, volumes, interest rates, regulation, capital spending, debt markets, or investor multiples change.
