Penske Automotive Group, Inc. research snapshot
PAG AI stock analysis currently reads Penske Automotive Group as a diversified international transportation services company: premium retail automotive dealerships, retail commercial trucks, commercial vehicle distribution, and a 28.9% equity stake in Penske Transportation Solutions. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, ChartMill showed PAG near $194.27, and market cap math using 65.75 million shares implied roughly $12.77 billion. FY2025 company results showed about $31.8 billion in revenue and $935.4 million of net income attributable to common stockholders, or $14.13 per share. The AI view is constructive on premium brand mix, high-margin service and parts, capital returns, and disciplined leverage, but cautious because vehicle gross profit is normalizing, Q1 2026 adjusted EPS declined year over year, the stock is extended near a new 52-week high, and auto retail remains cyclical. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$194.27
Market cap
$12.77 billion using current-share market cap math
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Premium auto and commercial truck retailer with service-parts cash flow, PTS equity income, and cycle-sensitive valuation near 52-week highs
Trend status
Uptrend with both short-term and long-term trends up on ChartMill, but RSI near 70 and setup quality low after a sharp run to new highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Penske sells new and used vehicles, finance and insurance, and high-margin service and parts across premium auto and commercial truck platforms, plus equity income from PTS truck leasing and logistics. | High |
| Moat | Scale, premium OEM relationships, multi-brand density, service and parts retention, acquisition integration skill, and a 28.9% PTS stake form a moderate-to-strong operational moat, not an unassailable brand moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair Roger Penske leads a controlled company with Penske Corporation at about 52% and Mitsui near 20%. Capital allocation mixes rising dividends, buybacks, and dealership M&A, including recent Toyota and Lexus acquisitions. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was roughly flat at $31.8 billion while attributable net income fell 4% to $935.4 million and EPS fell 3% to $14.13. Q1 2026 revenue was $7.9 billion and GAAP EPS $3.56, with adjusted EPS down 15% to $3.05. | High |
| Valuation | At $194.27, PAG traded near 13.8x FY2025 EPS of $14.13, about 2.3x book near $86, and a forward dividend yield near 2.9% on a $5.68 annualized dividend run-rate. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill rated technicals 8/10 with both trends up, price above the 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI near 70, and setup only 2/10 because price is extended into a new 52-week high zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are auto and truck cycles, manufacturer concentration, interest rates and floor-plan costs, EV and agency-model shifts, freight weakness, UK/FX exposure, acquisition integration, cyber risk, and controlled-company governance. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and audited scenario math, medium for entry timing after an overbought rally and for multi-year multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The operator quality is clear, but at current prices the stock needs stable EPS, service-parts growth, PTS recovery, and no multiple compression to justify much more than mid-single-digit base upside before dividends. | Medium |
PAG AI stock forecast
The PAG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $194.27 ChartMill close, FY2025 EPS of $14.13, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $285, a base value near $207, and a bearish value near $141 before dividends. These are scenarios, not guarantees.
$270 to $290
More likely if EPS compounds near 8%, premium GPU stabilizes, service and parts keep growing mid-single digits, commercial truck orders recover with freight, PTS equity income rises, acquisitions add earnings without leverage stress, and PAG earns about a 16x earnings multiple.
$200 to $215
More likely if EPS compounds near 4%, revenue grows low single digits through mix and M&A, dividend growth continues, leverage stays near recent 1.5x to 1.8x levels, and PAG trades near 13x earnings.
$135 to $150
More likely if vehicle demand and gross profit per unit fall further, floor-plan and consumer credit tighten, truck freight remains weak, FX or UK demand hurts results, acquisition returns disappoint, or the market rerates auto retail toward a 10x earnings multiple.
PAG AI technical analysis
PAG AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. ChartMill showed a close near $194.27, SMA20 near $181.14, SMA50 near $173.71, SMA200 near $164.40, RSI near 70.02, and a 52-week range of $140.12 to $197.69. Support zones clustered around $179 to $183 and $170 to $174, with no major resistance zones listed above price because PAG was pressing new highs. Traders should refresh live moving averages before acting because quote vendors can update during and after the session.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $194.27 | ChartMill showed PAG near $194.27 around the data cutoff, after a July 9 close near $191.49 on Yahoo and MarketWatch. |
| Near support | $179.41 to $183.44 | ChartMill listed this zone from multiple trend lines and important moving averages. |
| Lower support | $170.00 to $174.27 | ChartMill showed a second support band that also aligns with the rising 50-day area near $173.71. |
| Deeper support | $141.31 to $140.12 | Weekly horizontal support near $141.31 sits just above the 52-week low of $140.12. |
| Near resistance | $197.69 | ChartMill showed the recent 10-day and 52-week high near $197.69; no higher resistance zone was listed above that breakout area. |
| Moving averages | SMA50 $173.71, SMA200 $164.40 | PAG traded above rising short, medium, and long moving averages on ChartMill. |
| Momentum | RSI 70.02 | Daily RSI was in overbought territory, which raises pullback risk even inside an uptrend. |
| Volume and volatility | Avg volume ~300K, ATR 2.57% | Average volume was about 299,780 shares, and ATR near 2.57% shows medium daily volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $179.41, then $170.00 | A close under the first support band would weaken the extended breakout, and a break of $170 would shift focus toward the lower base-case and bearish scenarios. |
PAG AI trading strategy
The PAG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a premium auto retailer and truck platform trading near highs. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh checks on vehicle GPU, service and parts, freight, and capital allocation.
Look for PAG to hold above the $179 to $183 support band after any consolidation, then reassert strength through the $197 to $200 area on constructive volume. Confirm that retail automotive same-store service and parts growth, sequential GPU trends, commercial truck orders, PTS equity income, and leverage still support the move.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $179 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If PAG pulls back toward $170 to $174 without a clear demand shock, review PE, dividend coverage, inventory days supply, floor-plan interest, acquisition integration, and freight indicators before treating the decline as a lower-risk entry framework.
Do not average down only because Penske is a high-quality operator. A deeper vehicle cycle or credit shock can turn a cheap-looking pullback into a value trap.
Track new and used GPU, service and parts same-store growth, F&I per unit, commercial truck deliveries and service, PTS equity earnings, leverage ratio, free cash after inventory and floor plan, dividends, buybacks, and acquisition returns from Toyota and Lexus deals.
Reduce confidence if EPS falls while leverage rises, inventory ages, manufacturer supply tightens, or freight and consumer credit deteriorate together.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Penske to buy, finance, service, and recondition vehicles and commercial trucks through a multi-brand dealership network, while PTS contributes equity income from truck leasing, rental, maintenance, and logistics.
The moat is operational: premium OEM franchise rights, scale purchasing and fixed-cost absorption, dense service bays, acquisition integration know-how, and the PTS stake. Brand pricing power mostly belongs to manufacturers, not the retailer.
The thesis fails if vehicle demand collapses, manufacturer partners cut allocation or shift to agency and direct sales, EV residual values damage used inventory, freight stays weak, rates crush affordability, or controlled-company capital allocation prioritizes empire building over returns.
Roger Penske and affiliates control the company through Penske Corporation, with Mitsui as a major partner. Management has raised the dividend for 22 consecutive quarters, repurchased stock, repaid notes, and consolidated Toyota and Lexus dealerships, including Penske Motor Group and Orlando Lexus stores.
Auto retail is mature and cyclical. Structural positives include aging vehicle fleets that support service and parts, dealership consolidation, and commercial truck recovery potential. Structural risks include EV transition, online retail, OEM distribution model changes, tariffs, and consumer credit cycles.
At about 14x FY2025 EPS and a roughly 3% dividend yield, PAG is not deep value. The audited base case shows limited upside near $207, while the bear case near $141 is material if the cycle turns. Margin of safety is moderate only if service and parts, capital returns, and leverage discipline continue.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAG price | $194.27 ChartMill close context; $191.49 July 9 close on Yahoo/MarketWatch | ChartMill technical analysis; Yahoo Finance; MarketWatch | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $12.77 billion at $194.27 times 65.75 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification using MarketWatch share count | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 65.75 million | MarketWatch key data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $31.8085 billion, roughly flat year over year | Penske Automotive Group FY2025 earnings release; Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable | $935.4 million; EPS $14.13 | Penske Automotive Group FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $7.86 billion; net income attributable $234.5 million; EPS $3.56; adjusted EPS $3.05 | Penske Automotive Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Service and parts | Q1 2026 retail automotive service and parts revenue $863.9 million, up 4.6%; same-store up 4.6% | Penske Automotive Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | About $1.3 billion liquidity; cash $83.7 million; leverage ratio 1.8x at March 31, 2026 | Penske Automotive Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend $1.42; 22nd consecutive quarterly increase | Penske Automotive Group May 13, 2026 dividend announcement | July 12, 2026 |
| PTS ownership | 28.9% ownership interest in Penske Transportation Solutions | Penske Automotive Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Ownership structure | Penske Corporation about 52%; Mitsui about 20%; controlled company under NYSE rules | Penske Automotive Group 2026 proxy statement; Investing.com ownership | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 70.02; SMA50 $173.71; SMA200 $164.40; support $179.41-$183.44; 52-week high $197.69 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
This PAG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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