Penske Automotive Group, Inc. research snapshot
PAG AI stock analysis reads Penske Automotive Group as a diversified international transportation services company: premium retail automotive dealerships, retail commercial trucks, commercial vehicle distribution, and a 28.9% equity stake in Penske Transportation Solutions. The analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff is dominated by the July 22, 2026 take-private proposal from Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. to acquire the roughly 27.4% of shares they and their affiliates do not already own for $210 per share in cash. On July 29, 2026, PAG reported Q2 2026 revenue of $8.5 billion, up 6% year over year, GAAP EPS of $3.96, and adjusted EPS of $3.62, while the stock closed at $217.31 on July 31, 2026 according to ChartMill, above the $210 bid, with a market cap near $14.28 billion. The AI view is constructive because the take-private proposal, improved freight-driven truck order trends, a 23rd consecutive dividend increase, and a leverage ratio of 1.7x provide a supportive setup, but cautious because shares already trade above the stated bid, adjusted earnings still declined year over year, vehicle gross profit per unit remains compressed, and the deal is preliminary, non-binding, and may not close. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$217.31
Market cap
$14.28 billion using July 31, 2026 shares
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality auto and commercial truck retailer now in play after Penske Corporation and Mitsui proposed $210 per share for the shares they do not already own, with Q2 2026 revenue up 6% and a 23rd consecutive dividend increase
Trend status
Uptrend with technical rating 9/10 on ChartMill, price above rising 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI 67.5 daily and 74.4 weekly, trading near 52-week highs after the take-private announcement
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Penske sells new and used vehicles, finance and insurance, and high-margin service and parts across premium auto and commercial truck platforms, plus equity income from PTS truck leasing, rental, maintenance, and logistics. | High |
| Moat | Scale, premium OEM relationships, multi-brand density, service and parts retention, acquisition integration skill, and a 28.9% PTS stake form a moderate-to-strong operational moat rather than an unassailable brand moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair Roger Penske leads a controlled company where Penske Corporation and Mitsui together hold about 72.6%, and they now propose to take the remaining shares private at $210. Capital allocation mixes a 23rd straight dividend increase, buybacks, and dealership M&A. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 6% to $8.5 billion, GAAP EPS was $3.96 and adjusted EPS $3.62, both down year over year. H1 2026 EPS was $7.52 GAAP and $6.66 adjusted, versus $7.89 and about $7.00 a year earlier. | High |
| Valuation | At $217.31, PAG traded near 15.7x TTM EPS of $13.84, about 2.45x book near $88.8, and a dividend yield near 2.65% on the $5.76 annualized run rate, while the $210 bid sits below the market price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill rated technicals 9/10 with both trends up, price above rising 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages, daily RSI near 67.5 and weekly RSI near 74.4, with setup only 5/10 because the stock is extended near 52-week highs. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are that the $210 take-private proposal does not close, vehicle GPU compression continues, truck freight weakens again, rates and floor-plan costs rise, manufacturer or agency-model changes occur, FX and UK exposure bites, and the stock gives back the buyout premium. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and audited scenario math, medium for entry timing after an overbought rally and for the unpredictable outcome of a non-binding buyout process. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The operator quality is clear and the bid provides a reference point, but buying above the $210 proposal means paying a premium that is only justified if a higher deal emerges or the buyout closes while business momentum improves. | Medium |
PAG AI stock forecast
The PAG AI stock forecast is framed by the $210 per share take-private proposal from Penske Corporation and Mitsui, who own 72.6%, while the stock trades above the bid. A three-year financial_rigor.py model around the $217.31 close and $13.84 TTM EPS produced a bullish value near $261, a base value near $187, and a bearish value near $117 before dividends. These are scenarios, not guarantees, and the buyout outcome is the dominant near-term variable.
$250 to $265
More likely if a take-private deal closes at a price above the current market, or if EPS compounds near 8%, vehicle GPU stabilizes, service and parts keep growing, Class 8 truck orders sustain the freight recovery, PTS earnings rise, and PAG earns about a 15x earnings multiple.
$200 to $220
More likely if the buyout process concludes near $210 to $220, EPS stays roughly flat to low single digit growth, dividend growth continues, leverage stays near 1.7x, and the shares hold near the bid with only modest re-rating.
$115 to $145
More likely if the take-private proposal falls apart and vehicle demand and gross profit per unit fall further, truck freight stalls, floor-plan and consumer credit tighten, FX or UK demand hurts results, or the market rerates auto retail toward a 9x earnings multiple.
PAG AI technical analysis
PAG AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the July 31, 2026 close. ChartMill showed a close near $217.31, technical rating 9/10, setup 5/10, SMA20 near $203.32, SMA50 near $185.95, SMA200 near $167.17, daily RSI near 67.51, weekly RSI near 74.37, and a 52-week range of $140.12 to $227.00. Support zones clustered around $193.63 to $195.18 and $175.80, with no resistance zones listed above price because PAG is pressing recent highs after the take-private announcement. Traders should refresh live moving averages before acting because quote vendors can update during and after the session.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $217.31 | ChartMill showed PAG near $217.31 at the July 31, 2026 close; Yahoo showed $215.54 in a delayed quote context. |
| Near support | $193.63 to $195.18 | ChartMill listed this zone formed by a combination of multiple daily time frame trend lines. |
| Lower support | $175.80 | ChartMill showed support at $175.80 from a daily time frame trend line. |
| Deeper support | $141.31 | Weekly horizontal support near $141.31 sits just above the 52-week low of $140.12. |
| Near resistance | $227.00 | ChartMill showed the recent 10-day and 52-week high near $227.00; no higher resistance zone was listed above that breakout area. |
| Moving averages | SMA20 $203.32, SMA50 $185.95, SMA200 $167.17 | PAG traded above rising short, medium, and long moving averages on ChartMill. |
| Momentum | RSI 67.51 daily, 74.37 weekly | Daily RSI is near overbought and weekly RSI is in overbought territory, raising pullback risk even inside an uptrend. |
| Volume and volatility | Avg volume ~388K, ATR 3.06% | Average volume was about 388,120 shares, with elevated volume in recent sessions, and ATR near 3.06% shows medium daily volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $193.63, then $175.80 | A close under the first support band would weaken the extended breakout, and a break of $175.80 would shift focus toward the lower base-case and bearish scenarios. |
PAG AI trading strategy
The PAG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a premium auto retailer and truck platform with an active take-private process and shares trading above the announced bid. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh checks on the buyout process, vehicle GPU, service and parts, freight, and capital allocation.
Look for PAG to hold above the $193 to $195 support band after any consolidation, then reassert strength through the $227 recent high area on constructive volume. Confirm that the take-private process remains on track, retail automotive same-store service and parts growth holds, sequential GPU trends stabilize, commercial truck orders and PTS equity income support the move, and leverage stays near 1.7x.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $193 should reduce confidence in the trend setup, and a close below $175.80 should be treated as a break of the structural uptrend.
If PAG pulls back toward the $193 to $195 zone without a clear demand shock, review the status of the take-private proposal, PE, dividend coverage, inventory days supply, floor-plan interest, acquisition integration, and freight indicators before treating the decline as a lower-risk entry framework.
Do not average down only because Penske is a high-quality operator. Shares already trade above the $210 bid, so a failed buyout plus a deeper vehicle cycle can turn a cheap-looking pullback into a value trap.
Track the special committee review, any revised or competing proposal, financing and regulatory steps, and any indication on whether a definitive agreement can be reached. Pair this with new and used GPU, service and parts same-store growth, F&I per unit, commercial truck deliveries and service, PTS equity earnings, leverage, free cash after inventory and floor plan, dividends, and buybacks.
Reduce confidence if the take-private process stalls or is withdrawn, if EPS falls while leverage rises, if inventory ages, or if freight and consumer credit deteriorate together, because the premium over the bid depends on a closing transaction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Penske to buy, finance, service, and recondition vehicles and commercial trucks through a multi-brand dealership network, while PTS contributes equity income from truck leasing, rental, maintenance, and logistics.
The moat is operational: premium OEM franchise rights, scale purchasing and fixed-cost absorption, dense service bays, acquisition integration know-how, and the 28.9% PTS stake. Brand pricing power mostly belongs to manufacturers, not the retailer.
The thesis fails if the $210 take-private proposal does not close, vehicle demand collapses, manufacturer partners cut allocation or shift to agency and direct sales, EV residual values damage used inventory, freight stays weak, rates crush affordability, or controlled-company capital allocation prioritizes empire building over returns.
Roger Penske and affiliates control the company through Penske Corporation, with Mitsui as a major partner; together they own about 72.6%. Management has raised the dividend for 23 consecutive quarters, repurchased 265,104 shares in the first half of 2026, and consolidated Toyota and Lexus dealerships expected to add about $2 billion in annualized revenue.
Auto retail is mature and cyclical. Structural positives include aging vehicle fleets that support service and parts, dealership consolidation, and a recovering truck market with Class 8 orders up 118% in the first half of 2026. Structural risks include EV transition, online retail, OEM distribution model changes, tariffs, and consumer credit cycles.
At about 15.7x TTM EPS and a roughly 2.65% dividend yield, PAG is not deep value, and the $210 bid sits below the $217.31 market price. The audited base case shows limited upside near $187, while the bear case near $117 is material if the cycle turns or the deal fails. Margin of safety is moderate only if a deal closes or if service and parts, capital returns, and leverage discipline continue.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAG price | $217.31 ChartMill close July 31, 2026; $215.54 Yahoo delayed quote context | ChartMill technical analysis; Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $14.28 billion at $217.31 times about 65.7 million shares, verified by financial_rigor.py and matching Macrotrends | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification using SEC and Macrotrends share count | August 3, 2026 |
| Take-private proposal | Penske Corporation and Mitsui proposed $210 per share in cash for the roughly 27.4% of shares not owned by them; they and their affiliates own 72.6%; a special committee of independent directors will review | Penske Automotive Group July 22, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $8.5127 billion, up 6.0% year over year | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income attributable and EPS | Net income attributable $260.4 million; EPS $3.96 GAAP; adjusted EPS $3.62 | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | Revenue $16.3763 billion, up 2.4%; net income attributable $494.9 million; EPS $7.52 GAAP; adjusted EPS $6.66 | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $31.8085 billion, roughly flat; net income attributable $935.4 million; EPS $14.13 | Penske Automotive Group FY2025 earnings release; Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| Service and parts | Q2 2026 same-store retail automotive service and parts revenue up 2%, gross profit up 3%, gross margin up 80 basis points to 59.5% | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Retail commercial truck | Q2 2026 retailed 5,431 units with $927.8 million revenue and $47.2 million income before taxes; Class 8 orders up 118% in H1 2026 | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| PTS ownership and earnings | 28.9% ownership interest in Penske Transportation Solutions; Q2 2026 equity earnings up 7% to $57.4 million; fleet of about 379,200 trucks | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | About $1.4 billion liquidity, including $70 million cash; leverage ratio 1.7x at June 30, 2026 | Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings release via SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend $1.44, up $0.02 or 1.4%; annualized $5.76; 23rd consecutive quarterly increase; payable September 1, 2026 | Penske Automotive Group July 23, 2026 dividend announcement | August 3, 2026 |
| Ownership structure | Penske Corporation and Mitsui and their affiliates beneficially own 72.6% of outstanding common stock; controlled company under NYSE rules | Penske Automotive Group July 22, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation | 15.70x TTM PE on EPS $13.84, 2.45x book, 2.65% dividend yield at $217.31, verified by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py using Yahoo Finance TTM inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 67.51 daily and 74.37 weekly; SMA20 $203.32; SMA50 $185.95; SMA200 $167.17; support $193.63-$195.18; 52-week range $140.12-$227.00 | ChartMill technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This PAG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. The $210 per share take-private proposal is preliminary and non-binding, and there is no assurance that any transaction will be completed on those terms or at all. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
