Bullish case
$124 to $136
More likely if professional sales remain double-digit, DIY demand stays positive, gross margin stays near 51.5% to 52.0%, buybacks continue, and the market pays about 30x three-year forward earnings.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. research snapshot
ORLY AI Stock Analysis
ORLY AI stock analysis currently reads O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. as a best-in-class automotive aftermarket retailer with strong professional demand, a 6.0% second-quarter comparable store sales increase, a raised full-year 2026 outlook, and disciplined capital returns. At the July 31, 2026 close, ORLY traded at $89.35 with an independently checked market capitalization near $72.92 billion. The business quality score is high, but the stock analysis is not an automatic buy because shares still trade near 28x trailing earnings while leverage, negative book equity, tariffs, and competitive pressure remain active risks. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$89.35
Market cap
$72.92 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-quality auto parts compounder with improving momentum, still priced at a premium and below key long-term moving averages
Trend status
Fundamentals improved with a Q2 beat and raised guidance, while the chart rebounded above the 50-day average but still sits below the 100-day and 200-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. O'Reilly has decades of public filings, detailed earnings releases, daily quote data, active analyst coverage, and direct public peers including AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts, Genuine Parts, and LKQ.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-trusting the market's quality narrative. This page separates filing-backed facts from scenario judgments and asks why a careful investor might still wait despite O'Reilly's strong operating record and raised outlook.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported Q2 2026 and trailing twelve month financials, share count, market cap math, store count, guidance, and technical levels. Medium for forward returns because valuation multiples, buybacks, tariffs, and M&A headlines can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business is durable and understandable, but investment certainty depends on price paid, continued professional share gains, margin discipline, cash flow after capex, and whether the July rebound holds above key moving averages.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | O'Reilly sells auto parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories to both DIY customers and professional service providers through a dense North American store base of 6,695 locations. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from store density, hub-and-spoke availability, professional delivery speed, inventory breadth, culture, supplier scale, and years of operating discipline. | Medium-high |
| Management | Brad Beckham became CEO in 2024 after a long internal operating career. Management raised 2026 guidance, repurchased $2.43 billion in H1 2026, and expects smaller tuck-in deals rather than a large transformative acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales rose 8% to $4.89 billion, comparable store sales rose 6.0%, operating income rose 8% to $986 million, and diluted EPS rose 10% to $0.86; H1 diluted EPS rose 13% to $1.58. | High |
| Valuation | At $89.35 and $3.15 TTM EPS, ORLY traded near 28.4x trailing earnings, about 34x TTM free cash flow per share, and roughly 4.0x trailing sales. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart showed a neutral-to-improving daily setup, with ORLY above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages after the July rebound but still below the 100-day and 200-day. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are premium valuation, tariffs, wage and fuel pressure, inventory productivity, leverage, negative book equity, M&A speculation, and competition from AutoZone and other distributors. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and calculations. Lower confidence for exact price outcomes because technical levels and valuation multiples can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ORLY looks like a durable operator with improving momentum, but the stock still needs margin, cash flow, and valuation discipline before the quality case becomes a clear margin-of-safety case. | Medium |
ORLY AI stock forecast
ORLY AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ORLY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $89.35 close, $3.15 TTM EPS, and the raised $3.20 to $3.30 full-year 2026 EPS guidance. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $69, a base area near $100, and a bullish area near $130 before any future buyback effect.
Base case
$94 to $105
More likely if EPS compounds near a 5% to 8% rate, 2026 revenue lands near the raised $18.9 to $19.2 billion guidance, free cash flow remains healthy after capex, and investors value ORLY near 25x three-year forward earnings.
Bearish case
$64 to $74
More likely if valuation compresses, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, consumer demand softens, a large acquisition raises balance-sheet risk, or competitors narrow O'Reilly's delivery and availability advantage.
ORLY AI technical analysis
ORLY AI Technical Analysis
ORLY AI technical analysis is improving as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close was $89.35, up 2.28%, after a rebound from the July low near $82.59. Barchart showed ORLY above its 20-day ($86.85) and 50-day ($88.32) moving averages but still below the 100-day ($90.26) and 200-day ($93.12) moving averages, with a neutral 14-day RSI near 53 and elevated 20-day historic volatility near 44%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $89.35 | July 31, 2026 close used for this static page and the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $86.65 to $87.40 | July 31 intraday low and the area just above the 20-day moving average near $86.85. |
| Secondary support | $82.59 to $84.25 | July 2026 52-week low and the nearby rebound zone. A decisive break would make the recovery look like a failed bounce. |
| Near resistance | $89.55 to $90.26 | July 31 high and the 100-day moving average, the first overhead zone from public technical data. |
| 50-day moving average | $88.32 | Barchart showed the 50-day simple moving average near $88.32, now back below the current price after the rebound. |
| 200-day moving average | $93.12 | Barchart showed the 200-day moving average near $93.12. ORLY has been below this long-term reference since the 2026 decline. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 53.0, ADX near 13.8 | Barchart daily technicals showed neutral momentum, with RSI just above 50 and ADX below 20 indicating a weak trend. |
| Volume | 5.69 million shares on July 31 | Yahoo Finance showed the rebound day on below-average volume versus the 7.99 million average, so follow-through matters. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $2.93, 20-day historic volatility near 44% | Barchart showed enough volatility to require explicit position sizing even as the trend stays weak. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82.59, then failed reclaim of the 100-day and 200-day area | A break below the July low weakens the recovery. Failure to reclaim the 100-day and 200-day zone keeps trend-following confidence low. |
ORLY AI trading strategy
ORLY AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ORLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality specialty retailer whose short-term chart is stabilizing after a 2026 decline. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for ORLY to reclaim the $90.26 to $93.12 zone, including the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, then confirm a sustained move above those levels with improving volume before treating the recovery as a trend setup.
A close back below $88.32 (50-day) or $86.65 should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ORLY holds the $84.25 to $88.32 zone without a new margin, demand, or acquisition shock, compare price action with comps, professional growth, gross margin, inventory, capex, and free cash flow.
Do not average down only because O'Reilly has a strong history. Define maximum loss and check whether weakness is valuation reset or thesis damage.
Fundamental monitor
Track professional and DIY comps, gross margin, SG&A leverage, store openings, inventory per store, accounts payable to inventory, free cash flow, buybacks, debt, tariffs, and any M&A headlines.
Lower the rating if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks while store productivity, margins, or cash flow quality deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
O'Reilly converts parts availability, trained counter service, rapid local delivery, and repair urgency into repeat purchases from DIY drivers and professional garages.
Moat
The moat is strongest in store density, distribution coverage, local inventory breadth, professional relationships, supplier scale, service culture, and years of execution in a fragmented aftermarket.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if valuation compresses, tariffs and labor costs erode margins, a large acquisition damages returns, competitors match delivery speed, or buybacks hide weaker store productivity.
Management
Brad Beckham is an internal operator who rose through store operations and sales before becoming CEO in 2024. Management raised 2026 guidance and expects smaller tuck-in deals, but leverage and negative book equity require capital discipline.
Industry trend
The auto aftermarket benefits from an aging vehicle fleet, repair complexity, miles driven, and need-it-now parts availability. EV adoption and online channels can shift mix, but replacement demand remains resilient.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 28.4x trailing earnings, ORLY is priced as a quality compounder rather than a bargain. Margin of safety improves if earnings grow into the multiple, but narrows if the rebound stalls.
Source-backed data
ORLY Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY price | $89.35 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $72.92 billion, checked against $89.35 x 816.17 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 816.166 million issued and outstanding at June 30, 2026; 828.9 million weighted diluted shares used in Q2 2026 EPS | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales and comparable store sales | $4.892 billion sales, up 8%; comparable store sales up 6.0% | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and diluted EPS | $715.1 million net income and $0.86 diluted EPS, up 10% | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margins | Gross margin 51.4% and operating margin 20.2%, both unchanged from the prior year | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 sales and EPS | $9.453 billion sales, up 9%; diluted EPS $1.58, up 13%; comparable store sales up 7.0% | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net income | $17.782 billion sales and $2.538 billion net income | O'Reilly FY2025 earnings release, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $262.2 million cash and $7.015 billion long-term debt at June 30, 2026; adjusted debt to EBITDAR of 2.17x | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 raised guidance | $18.9 to $19.2 billion revenue, $3.20 to $3.30 diluted EPS, comparable store sales 4.0% to 6.0%, $1.8 to $2.1 billion free cash flow | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Store count | 6,695 total stores at June 30, 2026; 110 net new stores opened in H1 2026 | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | $2.43 billion repurchased in H1 2026 at $91.17 average; $1.51 billion in Q2 at $90.40 | O'Reilly Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day MA $86.85, 50-day MA $88.32, 100-day MA $90.26, 200-day MA $93.12, 14-day RSI near 53.0 | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Read the AZO AI stock analysisView GPC AI stock forecastExplore AAP AI technical analysisOpen the AI stock picker
This ORLY AI Stock Analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell O'Reilly Automotive stock, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, valuation, market conditions, technical levels, or company fundamentals change.
Related Tools
Trading Strategy Builder
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Open
Stock Screener
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Open
AI Stock Picker & Screener
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
Open