O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. research snapshot
ORLY AI stock analysis currently reads O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. as a best-in-class automotive aftermarket retailer with strong professional and DIY demand, 33 consecutive years of comparable-store sales growth, high gross margins, and disciplined capital returns. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ORLY traded near $86.65 with an independently checked market capitalization near $71.81 billion. The business quality score is high, but the stock analysis is not an automatic buy because the shares still price in durable earnings growth while technical momentum, debt, negative book equity, tariffs, and competitive pressure remain active risks. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$86.65
Market cap
$71.81 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality auto parts compounder, but valuation and recent technical weakness require discipline
Trend status
Fundamentals are strong, while daily technical signals remain weak after a July selloff
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | O'Reilly sells auto parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories to both DIY customers and professional service providers through a dense North American store base. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from store density, hub-and-spoke availability, professional delivery speed, inventory breadth, culture, supplier scale, and years of operating discipline. | Medium-high |
| Management | Brad Beckham became CEO in 2024 after a long internal operating career. Management has a strong capital-return record, but buybacks and debt require steady cash generation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 sales rose 10% to $4.56 billion, comparable-store sales rose 8.1%, operating income rose 14%, and net income rose 12% to $604 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.65 and $3.07 TTM EPS, ORLY traded near 28.2x earnings and about 38.0x estimated TTM free cash flow per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical sources showed a weak setup, with ORLY below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after the July 2026 selloff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are premium valuation, tariffs, wage and freight pressure, inventory productivity, NAPA-related deal speculation, leverage, negative book equity, and competition from AutoZone and other distributors. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and calculations. Lower confidence for exact price outcomes because technical levels and valuation multiples can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ORLY looks like a durable operator, but the stock needs margin, cash flow, and valuation discipline before the quality case becomes a clear margin-of-safety case. | Medium |
ORLY AI stock forecast
The ORLY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $86.65 quote, $3.07 TTM EPS, and current valuation. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $65, a base area near $91, and a bullish area near $119 before any future buyback effect.
$112 to $124
More likely if professional sales remain double-digit, DIY demand stays positive, tariffs are offset through pricing and sourcing, gross margin stays near 51.5% to 52.0%, buybacks continue, and the market pays about 30x three-year forward earnings.
$88 to $96
More likely if EPS compounds near a mid-single-digit rate, 2026 revenue lands near company guidance, free cash flow remains healthy after capex, and investors value ORLY near 25x three-year forward earnings.
$62 to $68
More likely if valuation compresses, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, a large acquisition raises integration or balance-sheet risk, or competitors narrow OReillys delivery and availability advantage.
ORLY AI technical analysis
ORLY AI technical analysis is weak as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. The July 7 close was $86.65 after a rebound from the July 6 low near $82.71, but Investing.com still rated the daily signal Strong Sell and showed ORLY below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Barchart also showed the stock below key intermediate and long-term moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.65 | July 7, 2026 close used for this static page and July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $84.70 to $85.80 | Zone around Investing.com classic pivot support and recent intraday lows after the July selloff. |
| Secondary support | $82.70 to $84.25 | Recent 52-week low and July 6 close area. A decisive break would make the technical reset look more serious. |
| Near resistance | $87.20 to $89.60 | First recovery zone around pivot resistance, the 20-day moving average, and the 50-day moving average from public technical sources. |
| 50-day moving average | $89.60 to $90.41 | Investing.com showed the 50-day simple moving average near $89.60, while Barchart showed a 50-day moving average near $90.41. |
| 200-day moving average | $88.80 to $94.64 | Investing.com and Barchart used different update windows, but both indicated ORLY was below important long-term moving-average references. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.662, MACD -1.050 | Investing.com daily technicals showed negative momentum, with RSI below neutral and MACD still in sell territory. |
| Volume | 7.77 million shares on July 7 | Yahoo Finance historical data showed a rebound on lower volume than the July 6 selloff, so follow-through matters. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $1.50 to $2.84 | Investing.com and Barchart differed by calculation method, but both showed enough volatility to require explicit position sizing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82.70, then failed reclaim of $90 | A break below the recent low weakens the mean-reversion setup. Failure to reclaim the 50-day area keeps trend-following confidence low. |
ORLY AI trading strategy
The ORLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality specialty retailer whose short-term chart is under pressure. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for ORLY to reclaim the $87.20 to $90.40 resistance zone, then confirm a move above the 50-day area with improving volume before treating the rebound as a trend setup.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day area or a close back below $84.70 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If ORLY holds the $82.70 to $85.80 support zone without a new margin, demand, or acquisition shock, compare price action with comps, professional growth, gross margin, inventory, capex, and free cash flow.
Do not average down only because O'Reilly has a strong history. Define maximum loss and check whether weakness is valuation reset or thesis damage.
Track professional and DIY comps, gross margin, SG&A leverage, store openings, inventory per store, accounts payable to inventory, free cash flow, buybacks, debt, tariffs, and any NAPA transaction risk.
Lower the rating if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks while store productivity, margins, or cash flow quality deteriorate.
Investment research summary
O'Reilly converts parts availability, trained counter service, rapid local delivery, and repair urgency into repeat purchases from DIY drivers and professional garages.
The moat is strongest in store density, distribution coverage, local inventory breadth, professional relationships, supplier scale, service culture, and years of execution in a fragmented aftermarket.
The thesis fails if valuation compresses, tariffs and labor costs erode margins, a large acquisition damages returns, competitors match delivery speed, or buybacks hide weaker store productivity.
Brad Beckham is an internal operator who rose through store operations and sales before becoming CEO in 2024. The culture looks aligned with long-term execution, but leverage and negative book equity require capital discipline.
The auto aftermarket benefits from an aging vehicle fleet, repair complexity, miles driven, and need-it-now parts availability. EV adoption and online channels can shift mix, but replacement demand remains resilient.
At about 28.2x TTM earnings, ORLY is priced as a quality compounder rather than a bargain. Margin of safety improves if earnings grow into the multiple, but narrows if technical weakness reflects weaker expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY price | $86.65 close on July 7, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Investing.com quote snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $71.81 billion, checked against $86.65 x 828.72 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 832.293 million issued and outstanding at March 31, 2026; market-data share count near 828.72 million after later repurchases | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release and market quote data | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and comparable-store sales | $4.561 billion sales, up 10%; comparable-store sales up 8.1% | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and diluted EPS | $604.2 million net income and $0.72 diluted EPS | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net income | $17.782 billion sales and $2.538 billion net income | O'Reilly FY2025 earnings release, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $252.6 million cash and $6.195 billion GAAP debt at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis total debt showed $8.73 billion including broader debt items | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion revenue, $3.15 to $3.25 diluted EPS, $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion free cash flow | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Store count | 6,644 total stores at March 31, 2026 | O'Reilly Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 44.662, MACD -1.050, 50-day SMA $89.60, 200-day SMA $88.80 | Investing.com technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This ORLY AI Stock Analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell OReilly Automotive stock, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, valuation, market conditions, technical levels, or company fundamentals change.
