BorgWarner Inc. research snapshot
BWA AI stock analysis currently views BorgWarner as a large global powertrain and propulsion supplier with durable OEM design-in relationships, growing light-vehicle eProducts, and improving adjusted margins, while battery-system sales are shrinking and 2025 GAAP results were hit by large impairments. At the July 10, 2026 close of $64.99, the stock is about $13.33 billion in market value, trades at roughly 12.3x forward earnings on company mid-guidance, and offers about a 9.2% free-cash-flow yield on trailing figures. The BWA AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$64.99
Market cap
$13.33 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Solid auto supplier with hybrid and eProduct optionality, valuation mixed after the rally
Trend status
Above the 200-day average near $53.30 and slightly below the 50-day average near $66.89 after a strong 52-week run
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BorgWarner sells turbochargers, drivetrain and thermal products, electric motors, electronics, and related systems to global OEMs. Foundational products still carry most sales, while light-vehicle eProducts grew about 23% in 2025. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and rests on multi-year design-in awards, specialized manufacturing, scale in turbo and hybrid systems, and switching costs once a platform is locked. Brand power with end consumers is limited, and network effects are not central. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Joseph Fadool took over in February 2025 after long internal operating roles. Capital return has been active, with about $630 million returned in 2025 and $185 million in Q1 2026, including $150 million of buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $14.32 billion, adjusted operating margin rose to 10.7%, free cash flow was $1.21 billion, and Q1 2026 adjusted EPS rose 12% to $1.24 even as organic sales fell about 4.2%. | High |
| Valuation | At $64.99, financial_rigor.py shows about 38.5x trailing GAAP EPS of $1.69, 2.43x book value, and a 9.2% free-cash-flow yield. Forward PE near 12x on $5.00 to $5.20 adjusted EPS guidance looks more reasonable, but the recent rally leaves less margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was above the 200-day average near $53.30 and slightly below the 50-day average near $66.89, so the intermediate trend is constructive with a mild near-term pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because of vehicle production cycles, OEM pricing, EV and hybrid mix shifts, battery-system declines and prior impairments, customer concentration, and execution risk in new industrial or data-center products. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for price, shares, sales, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, and valuation math. It is lower for 2027 award conversion, pure-EV demand, and the commercial scale of data-center turbine systems. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Cash generation and hybrid exposure support the franchise, but auto cyclicality and a large 52-week re-rating mean entry price and production trends matter more than a simple quality label. | Medium |
BWA AI stock forecast
The BWA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $64.99 July 10 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $5.10 mid-guidance adjusted EPS, three-year growth of 8%, 4%, and 0%, and terminal PEs of 14x, 12x, and 9x produced mechanical three-year outputs near $89.90 in a bull case, $68.80 in a base case, and $45.90 in a bear case before dividends, production shocks, and multiple volatility.
$75 to $90
More likely if light-vehicle markets stabilize, eProduct and hybrid content outgrow production, battery-system declines are contained, adjusted margins hold near 10.7% to 10.9%, free cash flow stays near the $0.9 to $1.1 billion guidance band, and investors keep paying a mid-teens multiple for supplier earnings growth.
$60 to $75
More likely if BorgWarner delivers roughly flat sales near $14.0 to $14.3 billion, mid-guidance adjusted EPS of about $5.00 to $5.20, continued buybacks, and only gradual multiple change after the 52-week advance.
$46 to $60
More likely if global production weakens further, OEM pricing or mix compresses margins, battery or eProduct impairments reappear, free cash flow misses the guided range, or the market re-rates the stock closer to a trough auto-supplier multiple near 9x earnings.
BWA AI technical analysis
BWA AI technical analysis uses the $64.99 July 10, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average of $66.89, a 200-day moving average of $53.30, RSI of 43.66, and average 20-day volume of about 2.75 million shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $64.99 | StockAnalysis regular-session close on July 10, 2026, the latest available close before the July 12 cutoff. |
| Near support | $60 to $65 | This zone covers the current price and nearby round numbers. A sustained break should be checked against fresh volume and production news rather than treated as a fixed trigger. |
| Near resistance | $67 to $78 | The first test is the 50-day average near $66.89. The 52-week high area near $78.82 remains a broader supply zone after the multi-month advance. |
| 50-day moving average | $66.89 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 10, 2026. Price was slightly below this short-term reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $53.30 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 10, 2026. Price remained well above this long-term reference after the 52-week gain of about 84%. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.66, neutral to soft | The reading was below the neutral midpoint but not deeply oversold, so it does not by itself signal a reversal. |
| Volume | About 2.75 million shares, 20-day average | Use a reclaim of the 50-day average with stronger-than-average volume as a short-term confirmation check. |
| Volatility | 1.08 five-year beta | Historical beta is close to the market, but auto production data, OEM cuts, and guidance changes can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Loss of the $60 zone and failure to hold above the rising intermediate structure | A break below nearby support with weaker production or margin updates would weaken a trend-following setup that currently relies on the post-rally uptrend. |
BWA AI trading strategy
The BWA AI trading strategy is a monitoring framework for a cyclical auto supplier with hybrid content growth and active capital returns. It is not personalized advice and should be used with position sizing, an earnings calendar, a defined invalidation point, and current market data.
Wait for BWA to reclaim the $66.89 area with volume above its recent average, then monitor whether Q2 results confirm sales, adjusted margin, free cash flow, and the $14.0 to $14.3 billion full-year sales band.
Invalidate the setup if price loses the $60 zone and company disclosures show weaker production, lower adjusted margins, or a cut to free-cash-flow guidance.
If the stock stabilizes near the current zone while eProduct awards, buybacks, and free cash flow remain intact, watch for improving RSI and a reclaim of the 50-day average before assuming the pullback is complete.
Do not average down solely because the stock has corrected after a large 52-week run. Reassess if battery-system declines accelerate, impairments return, or OEM production schedules deteriorate.
Track organic sales versus weighted vehicle markets, light-vehicle eProduct growth, Battery Energy Systems sales, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow, share count after buybacks, net debt, and data-center or industrial award conversion toward 2027.
Reduce confidence if adjusted margins stall while sales fall, free cash flow lags the $900 million to $1.1 billion guide, or new industrial products remain awards without conversion.
Investment research summary
Customers pay BorgWarner for powertrain, propulsion, thermal, electronics, and eProduct systems that help vehicles meet efficiency, emissions, and electrification requirements across hybrid, electric, and foundational combustion platforms.
Multi-year OEM design-in awards, specialized manufacturing know-how, scale in turbo and hybrid systems, and high switching costs once a platform is locked create a moderate supplier moat, though pricing power remains constrained by large OEM customers and competitive bidding.
The thesis fails if global vehicle production drops sharply, hybrid and eProduct content growth stalls, battery-system or other assets require further write-downs, free cash flow weakens after buybacks, or valuation compresses after the 52-week re-rating.
CEO Joseph Fadool has led since February 2025 after serving as COO. Capital allocation has emphasized share repurchases and dividends, so the key test is sustaining free cash flow and margin gains without overpaying for growth or underinvesting in the portfolio transition.
The industry sits in a multi-year propulsion transition where hybrids and efficient foundational products still matter while pure battery-electric demand is uneven. BorgWarner is also testing adjacent industrial demand through turbine generator systems aimed at data-center and microgrid power.
The July 10 price values BWA at about 38.5x trailing GAAP EPS, roughly 12.3x forward adjusted EPS at mid-guidance, 2.43x book, and about 10.9x trailing free cash flow per share. Margin of safety is more visible on free cash flow and forward earnings than on trailing GAAP results after impairments.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWA price | $64.99 at the July 10 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.33 billion reported; $13.33 billion from $64.99 times 205.11M shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $14.316 billion company-reported; third-party sources near $14.32 to $14.33 billion | BorgWarner FY2025 results and StockAnalysis or AlphaQuery | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings and cash flow | GAAP EPS $1.28; adjusted EPS $4.91; free cash flow $1.208 billion; light-vehicle eProducts up about 23% | BorgWarner FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income cross-check | About $277 million on Macrotrends and AlphaQuery, consistent with $1.28 GAAP EPS on a reduced share base | Macrotrends and AlphaQuery | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Sales $3.533 billion; GAAP EPS $1.16; adjusted EPS $1.24; adjusted operating margin 10.5%; free cash flow $13 million; $185 million returned to shareholders | BorgWarner Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Sales $14.0 to $14.3 billion; adjusted operating margin 10.7% to 10.9%; adjusted EPS $5.00 to $5.20; free cash flow $900 million to $1.1 billion | BorgWarner Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet snapshot | Cash and equivalents $2.11 billion; total debt $4.07 billion; net cash position about -$1.96 billion; book value per share $26.71 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $66.89, 200-day average $53.30, RSI 43.66, 20-day average volume about 2.75 million, beta 1.08 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This BWA research page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario calculations based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly. Verify primary sources and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
