Otter Tail Corporation research snapshot
OTTR AI stock analysis currently reads Otter Tail Corporation as a diversified holding company that combines a regulated electric utility in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota with metal fabrication, thermoformed plastics, and PVC pipe businesses. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, OTTR traded around $90.75 with a verified market capitalization near $3.81 billion. The OTTR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the Plastics segment is still normalizing from 2022 peak pricing, the Manufacturing segment depends on industrial and construction demand, and the Electric segment provides a stable but regulated earnings floor. Second quarter 2026 results were scheduled for release after the market close on August 3, 2026 and were not yet available at the research cutoff.
Current price
$90.75 intraday on August 3, 2026, about 4.6% below the 52-week high of $95.00
Market cap
$3.81 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Diversified utility holding company with a growing regulated electric franchise, a recovering manufacturing business, PVC plastics earnings still normalizing, and a 12-year dividend growth streak
Trend status
Consolidating below the $95.00 52-week high set on July 17, 2026, trading near the 50-day moving average at $89.25
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Otter Tail operates three segments: Electric, a regulated utility in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota; Manufacturing, focused on metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics; and Plastics, which makes PVC pipe. In Q1 2026 the Electric segment grew net income 42.7%, Manufacturing grew 179.6%, and Plastics fell 24.2% on lower PVC pipe prices. The 2026 earnings mix is guided to roughly 49% Electric and 51% Manufacturing plus Plastics, net of corporate costs. | High |
| Moat | The Electric segment has a regulatory moat through its exclusive service territory in three Upper Midwest states. The Manufacturing and Plastics segments compete in industrial markets where scale, customer relationships, and delivery speed provide modest advantages but no strong pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chuck MacFarlane and the board executed a long-planned leadership transition in April 2026, electing Tim Rogelstad President, Todd Wahlund President of Otter Tail Power, and Tyler Nelson CFO. Management settled the South Dakota rate case near 75% of the request, reaffirmed the $5.22 to $5.62 2026 EPS guidance, and committed to funding a $1.9 billion electric capital plan with no external equity through at least 2030. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $1.73 was up 7% year over year with a 15% trailing return on equity. FY2025 EPS was $6.55, and FY2026 guidance of $5.22 to $5.62 implies a decline led by Plastics, which is guided from about $4.05 of 2025 EPS to $2.49 to $2.71 in 2026 and toward $45 to $50 million of annual earnings by 2028. | High |
| Valuation | At $90.75, OTTR trades at 13.61x trailing EPS, about 16x forward EPS on the consensus estimate, 1.94x book value, 9.79x EV/EBITDA, and a 2.55% dividend yield. The valuation is reasonable for a growing utility but not cheap, and the analyst consensus target of $90.50 sits almost exactly at the current price. | High |
| Technical trend | OTTR set a new 52-week high of $95.00 on July 17, 2026, then pulled back to about $90.75. The stock trades above both the 50-day moving average of $89.25 and the 200-day moving average of $86.24, with RSI near 50 and a Barchart technical opinion of 80% Buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include continued PVC pipe price declines and resin-cost increases from Middle East conflict, Plastics normalization through 2027, cyclical manufacturing demand, the pending Minnesota rate case, interest rate sensitivity, heavy capital spending that keeps trailing free cash flow near zero, and elevated short interest near 12.6% of shares outstanding. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and multiple financial data sources agree on the core financials and guidance. Return confidence is medium because PVC pricing, resin costs, manufacturing demand, and the Minnesota rate case outcome are hard to forecast beyond the current fiscal year. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | OTTR offers a reasonable risk-reward profile for a diversified utility investor, with electric-driven growth, an intact 12-year dividend growth streak, and a 10% to 12% long-term total shareholder return target. Near-term upside is limited while EPS declines and the analyst consensus holds at the current price. | Medium |
OTTR AI stock forecast
The OTTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings depend on regulated utility rate cases, PVC pipe pricing and resin costs, industrial manufacturing demand, and capital allocation. Using a $90.75 price reference, the $5.22 to $5.62 FY2026 EPS guidance midpoint of $5.42, and a three-year model checked with the financial rigor tool, the mechanical outcomes are about $119 in a bullish case, $88 in a base case, and $50 in a bearish case before dividends. The base case sits near the analyst consensus target of $90.50.
$112 to $126 before dividends
More likely if the Minnesota rate case delivers a constructive outcome, Electric rate base keeps growing near 10% with EPS conversion near one to one, PVC resin costs push pipe prices higher and Plastics stabilizes sooner than the 2028 plan, manufacturing demand stays firm, and the market keeps a mid-teens multiple on higher earnings power.
$82 to $95 before dividends
More likely if Otter Tail delivers FY2026 EPS near the $5.22 to $5.62 guidance midpoint, Electric grows steadily, Plastics declines in line with the 2028 normalization target, manufacturing holds, and the stock trades near 14x to 15x earnings, consistent with the $90.50 consensus target.
$45 to $58 before dividends
More likely if PVC pipe prices keep falling or an industrial recession hits manufacturing, the Minnesota rate case outcome is less constructive, rising interest costs and heavy capex pressure free cash flow, and the stock de-rates toward 10x lower earnings.
OTTR AI technical analysis
OTTR AI technical analysis shows the stock consolidating below its July 17, 2026 52-week high of $95.00. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, StockAnalysis and Barchart showed an intraday price near $90.75, a 52-week range of $74.15 to $95.00, a 50-day moving average of $89.25, and a 200-day moving average of $86.24. RSI is near 50, indicating neutral momentum after the pullback from the high, and Barchart rates the technical picture an 80% Buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. The stock has gained about 20% over the past year and sits roughly 4.6% below the 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.75 intraday on August 3, 2026 | About 4.6% below the $95.00 52-week high set on July 17, 2026, and just above the 50-day moving average of $89.25. |
| Immediate support | $88.50 to $89.40 | The August 3 day low of $88.54 and the 50-day moving average at $89.25 form the first support band above the consolidation range. |
| Trend support | $86.00 to $87.30 | Barchart support pivots at $87.84, $87.27, and $86.28 align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of $87.04 between the $95.00 high and the $74.15 low. |
| Strong support | $82.00 to $84.60 | This zone covers the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of $82.11 and $84.57, sits below the 200-day moving average of $86.24, and includes the June 2026 low near $82.74. |
| Deep support | $74.15 | The 52-week low reached on November 4, 2025 is the deepest support level. |
| Immediate resistance | $91.40 to $95.00 | The August 3 day high near $91.38 is the near-term cap, with the $95.00 52-week high from July 17, 2026 as the main breakout level. |
| Upper resistance | $95.00 to $100.84 | Above $95.00 there is no recent supply until the all-time high of $100.84 from July 2024, which sits just above the highest analyst target of $95. |
| Moving averages | 50-day at $89.25, 200-day at $86.24 | The stock is above both moving averages, a supportive longer-term structure, with the 200-day below the 50-day. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 on a 14-day basis | Momentum is neutral after the pullback from $95.00, while Barchart notes relative strength just crossed above 50%, a mildly bullish signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 219,826 shares | August 3 volume was running near 205,000 shares intraday. A breakout through $95.00 would be more convincing with volume above the 20-day average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $86.00, then below $74.15 | A sustained close below the $86 to $87 trend-support zone would weaken the bullish structure. A break below the $74.15 52-week low would reset to a bearish framework. |
OTTR AI trading strategy
The OTTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with Electric segment rate case progress, PVC pricing and resin costs, manufacturing demand, dividend coverage, and the heavy capital spending plan.
Watch for OTTR to reclaim $91.40 and break above the $95.00 52-week high with volume above the 20-day average near 220,000 shares. Confirm with Q2 2026 results due August 3 after the market close, stable or improving PVC pricing, constructive Minnesota rate case news, and EPS tracking toward the high end of the $5.22 to $5.62 guidance.
A failed breakout near $95.00 followed by a close back below $89.25 would reduce trend conviction, especially if Q2 2026 results show Plastics segment deterioration or guidance is revised lower.
If OTTR pulls back toward the $86 to $88.50 support zone without a fundamental earnings reset, evaluate the risk-reward against FY2026 EPS guidance, the 2.55% dividend yield floor, the regulated electric earnings base, and the 12-year dividend growth streak.
Do not treat the dividend yield as automatic support if Plastics earnings fall faster than guided, manufacturing orders contract, or the company signals equity issuance or a capex increase that pressures free cash flow.
Track Q2 2026 results released August 3 after the market close, the Minnesota rate case outcome, PVC pipe pricing and resin-cost trends, manufacturing end-market demand, operating cash flow versus the $1.9 billion electric capital plan, debt levels including the $80 million parent maturity in Q4 2026, and the trajectory of Plastics earnings toward the $45 to $50 million 2028 target.
Position sizing should reflect that OTTR mixes regulated utility stability with industrial cyclicality. Trailing free cash flow is near zero because of heavy capex, so dividend and earnings quality depend on the Electric segment recovering investments through rates.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Otter Tail companies for reliable electric power in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, and for durable metal parts, thermoformed plastic products, and PVC pipe used in construction, agriculture, water systems, and industrial applications.
The regulated electric utility franchise provides a natural monopoly with regulated returns in its three-state service territory. The manufacturing and plastics businesses compete on product quality, customer relationships, and delivery speed rather than structural moats, and they face low-cost import competition.
The thesis fails if PVC pipe pricing keeps declining and Plastics earnings fall below the 2028 normalization plan, resin-cost increases compress PVC margins, manufacturing demand contracts in a recession, the Minnesota rate case outcome is adverse, or the heavy capital plan outruns operating cash flow and forces external equity.
CEO Chuck MacFarlane and the board deepened the leadership bench with the April 2026 President and CFO transitions, delivered a constructive South Dakota rate case, completed the Vinyltech expansion and wind repowering on budget, and committed to a $1.9 billion electric capital plan with no external equity through at least 2030.
Electric utilities benefit from grid modernization, renewable investment, and growing data center and large-load demand, though Otter Tail removed a 430 MW load from its pipeline on permitting and tax issues. PVC pipe demand is supported by water infrastructure needs, while manufacturing tracks industrial and construction cycles.
At 13.61x trailing earnings and a 2.55% dividend yield, OTTR is reasonably valued for a growing utility, but the forward P/E near 16x prices in declining EPS and the consensus target of $90.50 leaves little margin of safety. The safety comes from the regulated earnings base and dividend, not from price upside.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $90.75 intraday on August 3, 2026; previous close $88.42; day range $88.54 to $91.38 | StockAnalysis and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.81 billion as of August 3, 2026, verified as $90.75 x 41.98 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.98 million | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, EPS | $1.31 billion; $280.40 million; $6.66 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue, net income, EPS | $1.30 billion; $275.89 million; $6.55 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis and Otter Tail 2025 annual report | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 diluted EPS and revenue | $1.73, up 7% year over year; Q1 revenue $347.0 million; segment net income Electric $35.25M, Manufacturing $4.28M, Plastics $32.94M | Otter Tail Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS guidance | $5.22 to $5.62 affirmed May 2026; segment guidance Electric $2.61 to $2.69, Manufacturing $0.26 to $0.32, Plastics $2.49 to $2.71 | Otter Tail Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS | $5.84, down from $6.55 in 2025, with FY2027 consensus near $5.32 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.61x trailing PE, 16.01x forward PE, 1.94x book, 2.85x sales, 9.79x EV/EBITDA, 2.55% dividend yield | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst price target range | $86 low, $90.50 average, $95 high, with a Hold consensus rating | StockAnalysis forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $74.15 on November 4, 2025 to $95.00 on July 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.5775 per share; annual $2.31; 2.55% yield; 12 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis and Otter Tail dividend announcements | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $89.25, 200-day MA $86.24, RSI 49.98, 20-day average volume 219,826 shares, Barchart technical opinion 80% Buy | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $403.24 million cash, $1.21 billion total debt, $807.86 million net debt, $45.47 book value per share, 0.63 debt-to-equity | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
This OTTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if PVC pricing, manufacturing demand, utility regulatory outcomes, interest rates, or management execution differ from assumptions. Second quarter 2026 results were scheduled for release after the market close on August 3, 2026 and were not yet available at the research cutoff.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
