Otter Tail Corporation research snapshot
OTTR AI stock analysis currently reads Otter Tail Corporation as a diversified holding company combining a regulated electric utility in the Upper Midwest with manufacturing and PVC pipe businesses that add cyclical earnings exposure. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, OTTR traded around $88.96 with a verified market capitalization near $3.73 billion. The OTTR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the Plastics segment faces PVC pricing pressure, the Manufacturing segment depends on industrial demand, and the Electric segment provides a stable earnings floor but is subject to regulatory outcomes, capital spending plans, and weather patterns.
Current price
$88.96 close on July 10, 2026; near the upper end of the 52-week range
Market cap
$3.73 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Diversified utility holding company with regulated electric earnings base, metal and plastics manufacturing exposure, and a 12-year dividend growth streak
Trend status
Near the upper end of the 52-week range at $88.96, below the all-time high of $100.84 set in July 2024
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Otter Tail operates three distinct segments: Electric (regulated utility, 40-50% of earnings), Manufacturing (metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics), and Plastics (PVC pipe). The utility provides earnings stability while the industrial segments add cyclical growth and diversification. | High |
| Moat | The Electric segment has a regulatory moat through its service territory franchise in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The Manufacturing and Plastics segments compete in competitive industrial markets where scale and customer relationships provide modest advantages. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Charles S. MacFarlane has led the company through the separation of its health services business and the recent PVC antitrust settlement. The company recently announced President and CFO transitions as part of long-term succession planning, signaling organizational depth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 annual revenue was about $1.30 billion with net income near $275.9 million. Q1 2026 EPS of $1.73 beat analyst estimates of $1.49, with Q1 revenue of $347.03 million above the $334 million consensus. FY2026 EPS guidance stands at $5.22 to $5.62. | High |
| Valuation | At $88.96, OTTR trades at 13.36x trailing EPS, 1.96x book value, 9.34x free cash flow, and offers a 2.60% dividend yield. The valuation is reasonable for a regulated utility with industrial diversification but not obviously cheap near the 52-week high. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is near the top of its 52-week range ($74.15 to $92.60) but still about 12% below the all-time high of $100.84 set in July 2024. RSI near 50 suggests neutral momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include PVC pipe price volatility weighing on the Plastics segment, the $30 million antitrust settlement for PVC price-fixing claims, commodity cost inflation, interest rate sensitivity for the utility, weather-dependent electric demand, and execution risk in the President and CFO transition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and multiple financial data sources agree on the core financials. Return confidence is medium because PVC pricing and industrial manufacturing demand are hard to forecast beyond the current fiscal year. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | OTTR offers a reasonable risk-reward profile for diversified utility investors, but the near-term return potential is limited with the stock near the 52-week high and PVC headwinds persisting. The dividend growth streak provides a floor for income-oriented holders. | Medium |
OTTR AI stock forecast
The OTTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings depend on regulated utility rate cases, PVC pipe market pricing, industrial manufacturing demand, and the company capital allocation strategy. Using an $88.96 price reference, $6.66 TTM EPS, and a three-year model checked with the financial rigor tool, the mechanical outcomes are about $151 in a bullish case, $108 in a base case, and $73 in a bearish case before dividends.
$140 to $155 before dividends
More likely if PVC prices recover, manufacturing demand stays strong, the utility benefits from constructive rate cases and renewable energy investments, and the market re-rates OTTR closer to 17x earnings on higher earnings power.
$100 to $115 before dividends
More likely if Otter Tail delivers FY2026 EPS near the $5.22 to $5.62 guidance midpoint, the Electric segment grows steadily, manufacturing holds stable, PVC pricing stabilizes, and the stock trades near 14x earnings.
$65 to $78 before dividends
More likely if PVC prices decline further, manufacturing demand softens in a recession, the electric utility faces higher capital costs or regulatory headwinds, and the stock de-rates to 11x lower earnings.
OTTR AI technical analysis
OTTR AI technical analysis shows the stock near the top of its 52-week range as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart and TradingView data showed a July 10 close of $88.96 with a 52-week range of $74.15 to $92.60. The all-time high is $100.84 set in July 2024. Barchart technical opinion rates OTTR a Strong Buy at 88%, with RSI near 50. The stock shows a 10.83% return over the past year and sits 3.93% below the 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.96 close on July 10, 2026 | The stock trades near the upper end of the 52-week range, about 12% below the all-time high. |
| Immediate support | $85.50 to $87.00 | The recent June/July trading range suggests support in the mid-$80s where the stock consolidated after pulling back from $92.60. |
| Trend support | $82.00 to $85.00 | This zone aligns with the 50-day moving average area and the April-June consolidation zone before the recent rally. |
| Strong support | $74.00 to $76.00 | Barchart lists the 52-week low at $74.15, reached in November 2025. This area represents the deepest support. |
| Immediate resistance | $90.00 to $92.60 | The 52-week high of $92.60 is the first major resistance. The stock recently pulled back from this level in early July. |
| Upper resistance | $96.00 to $100.84 | The all-time high of $100.84 from July 2024 is the ultimate resistance. An analyst high target of $95 aligns near this zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day and 200-day not specified in available data | The stock is trading above both short-term and long-term moving averages given its position near the 52-week high. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 on a 14-day basis | Momentum is neutral, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold after its recent pullback from $92.60. |
| Volume | Average volume near 133,000 shares on recent session; 3-month average about 273,000 | Volume is moderate. A breakout through $92.60 would be more convincing with volume above the 3-month average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82.00, then below $74.15 | A sustained move below $82 would weaken the bullish structure. A break below the $74.15 52-week low would reset to a bearish framework. |
OTTR AI trading strategy
The OTTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with Electric segment earnings stability, PVC pricing, manufacturing demand trends, dividend coverage, and capital spending plans.
Watch for OTTR to break above $92.60 with above-average volume and follow-through above the all-time high of $100.84. Confirm with continued EPS growth near the high end of FY2026 guidance, stable or improving PVC margins, and constructive utility rate case outcomes.
A failed breakout above $92.60 followed by a close below $87 should reduce trend conviction, especially if Q2 2026 earnings show PVC segment deterioration or guidance is revised lower.
If OTTR pulls back toward the $82 to $85 support zone without a fundamental earnings reset, evaluate the risk-reward relative to FY2026 EPS guidance, dividend yield support near 2.8%, and the regulated utility earnings floor.
Avoid treating a dividend yield spike as automatic support if the Plastics segment is deteriorating, manufacturing orders are contracting, or the company signals a capital spending increase that pressures free cash flow.
Track quarterly Electric segment earnings and rate case developments, PVC pipe pricing trends, manufacturing utilization rates, operating cash flow, capital expenditure plans, debt levels, and the progress of the President and CFO leadership transition.
Position sizing should reflect that OTTR combines regulated utility stability with industrial cyclicality. The PVC pricing downturn and antitrust settlement create near-term uncertainty that may not be fully reflected in the current price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Otter Tail companies for reliable electric power in the Upper Midwest and for durable metal parts, thermoformed plastic products, and PVC pipes used in construction, agriculture, water systems, and industrial applications.
The regulated electric utility franchise in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota provides a natural monopoly with regulated returns. The manufacturing and plastics businesses compete on quality, relationships, and service rather than having strong structural moats.
The thesis fails if PVC pipe pricing stays depressed for an extended period, manufacturing demand contracts during an economic slowdown, the electric utility faces adverse rate cases or rising capital costs, or the leadership transition creates execution missteps.
CEO Charles S. MacFarlane has led Otter Tail through business portfolio evolution including the health services separation. Recent President and CFO succession announcements suggest planned leadership depth, though new executives carry execution risk.
Electric utilities benefit from steady demand growth, renewable energy investments, and grid modernization spending. PVC pipe demand is supported by water infrastructure needs, while manufacturing is tied to broader industrial and construction cycles.
At 13.36x trailing earnings with a 2.60% dividend yield, OTTR offers a moderate valuation for a diversified utility holding company. The margin of safety is limited near the 52-week high and relies on the Plastics segment stabilizing.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.96 close on July 10, 2026; about $90.00 mid-June high | Barchart and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.73 billion as of July 10, 2026 | Barchart and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.98 million | Barchart and Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue | $1.30 billion | TradingView financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual net income | $275.89 million | TradingView and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $347.03 million | Otter Tail Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 diluted EPS | $1.73 | Otter Tail Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS guidance | $5.22 to $5.62 | Otter Tail Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.36x trailing PE, 1.96x book, 9.34x FCF, 2.60% dividend yield | Barchart and Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price target range | $86 low, $90.50 average, $95 high | Investing.com and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $74.15 to $92.60 | Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.5775 per share; annual $2.31; 2.60% yield | Otter Tail dividend announcement | July 12, 2026 |
This OTTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if PVC prices, manufacturing demand, utility regulatory outcomes, interest rates, or management execution differ from assumptions.
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