Open Text Corporation research snapshot
OTEX AI stock analysis currently reads Open Text Corporation as a mature enterprise information management software company with a broad portfolio, a growing cloud business, strong free cash flow, and an above-average dividend yield. The analysis is scenario-based, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $25.34 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $6.15 billion using 242.66 million shares outstanding, and the main debate was whether cloud momentum and free cash flow can overcome high debt leverage and modest total revenue growth under a new CEO who started on April 20, 2026. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$25.34
Market cap
About $6.15 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Mature enterprise software with strong cash flow, high leverage, and a fresh CEO transition
Trend status
Above short-term averages, testing the 200-day SMA near $27.20
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Open Text sells mission-critical enterprise information management software spanning content management, cybersecurity, business networks, observability, and analytics to large organizations and government agencies. Content is the largest and fastest growing business at about 44% of revenue. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from three decades of content management experience, enterprise switching costs, long G10K customer relationships, a broad integrated product suite, and partnerships with SAP, Microsoft, Google Cloud, AWS, Oracle, and Salesforce. | Medium |
| Management | Ayman Antoun became CEO on April 20, 2026 after an interim period, bringing an outside enterprise software perspective. CFO Steve Rai is emphasizing capital discipline, debt reduction, buybacks, and dividend stability while the board reshapes the portfolio. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $5.21 billion, roughly flat year over year after asset divestitures, while cloud revenue grew 6.6% in fiscal Q3 and TTM free cash flow reached about $809.51 million, up 14.2%. GAAP TTM net income was about $516 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation was about 12.42x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.53x book value, 7.59x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 4.34% dividend yield, so the stock looks inexpensive on cash flow, partly because of debt and modest growth concerns. | Medium |
| Technical trend | OTEX closed at $25.34 on July 31, 2026, above the 20-day SMA near $23.35, the 50-day SMA near $22.87, and the 100-day SMA near $22.83, but still below the 200-day SMA near $27.20. Momentum is improving but the long trend is not yet repaired. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are high debt leverage (total debt about $6.42 billion, debt/EBITDA about 3.91x), modest total revenue growth, macro and geopolitical uncertainty, US government contract delays, and competition from larger cloud platform vendors. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and source-backed numbers. Lower confidence for future returns because cloud acceleration, debt reduction pace, macro demand, and the new CEO strategy are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business generates steady free cash flow and pays a meaningful dividend, but the stock needs evidence of sustained cloud growth and debt reduction to support a re-rating, with the August 6, 2026 report as the next check point. | Medium-low |
OTEX AI stock forecast
The OTEX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $25.34 cutoff price and analyst consensus non-GAAP EPS near $4.23 for fiscal 2026. The three-scenario model produced a bullish three-year value near $43, a base case near $32, and a bearish case near $21 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets, and they sit near the analyst target range of $25 to $40.
$38 to $43
More likely if cloud revenue sustains mid-single-digit organic growth or accelerates, enterprise cloud bookings convert faster, debt is reduced meaningfully, free cash flow stays near current levels, and the market re-rates OTEX toward its peer software multiple.
$27 to $32
More likely if Open Text delivers on its raised fiscal 2026 outlook of 1% to 2% total revenue growth, 4% to 5% cloud growth, and 22% to 25% free cash flow growth, while the stock gravitates toward the consensus target of about $29.
$20 to $24
More likely if macro or geopolitical weakness slows enterprise spending, government contract delays continue, debt reduction stalls, or the market keeps the stock near a low earnings multiple because of growth and leverage concerns.
OTEX AI technical analysis
OTEX AI technical analysis starts from the $25.34 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3 static page. Barchart showed the 20-day SMA near $23.35, the 50-day SMA near $22.87, the 100-day SMA near $22.83, and the 200-day SMA near $27.20. OTEX has reclaimed its short-term moving averages after a strong July bounce from the 52-week low near $19.78, but remains below the long-term trend reference. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.34 | StockAnalysis.com close snapshot for July 31, 2026 used for this page. |
| Near support | $23.50 to $23.70 | The 20-day SMA area near $23.35 and the July breakout zone. Holding this area keeps the short-term bounce intact. |
| Key support | $22.80 to $23.00 | The converging 50-day and 100-day SMA area near $22.87 and $22.83. This is a more important demand zone for the recovery. |
| 52-week low | $19.78 | The 52-week low area from June 2026. This is a risk-management level, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $25.90 to $26.40 | The July 29 intraday high near $26.34 and the recent closing high near $25.88. A close above this zone would extend the rally. |
| Long-term resistance | $27.20 to $28.00 | The 200-day SMA near $27.20 is the major overhead level, with the consensus target near $29 beyond it. |
| 50-day moving average | About $22.87 | Barchart reported the 50-day simple moving average near this level around the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $27.20 | Barchart data showed OTEX trading below this long-term trend reference, so the long trend is still under repair. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 63.20 | Barchart showed rising relative strength, near the upper end of neutral and approaching overbought territory. |
| Volume | About 1.20 million shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com showed volume in line with the 20-day average near 1.37 million shares. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $0.97 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement of roughly 3.8% around the cutoff price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.00, then $22.80 | A close below the 20-day area weakens the bounce. A break below the 50-day and 100-day cluster near $23.00 would require a fresh review of trend and risk. |
OTEX AI trading strategy
The OTEX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for OTEX to hold above the $23.50 support zone and reclaim the $25.90 to $26.40 resistance area with improving volume before treating the recovery as confirmed, with the 200-day SMA near $27.20 as the next objective.
A failed breakout or a daily close below the 20-day area near $23.35 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If OTEX pulls back toward the $22.80 to $23.00 moving average cluster or the 52-week low near $19.78, compare price with the near 13% free cash flow yield, the 4.34% dividend yield, debt reduction progress, and cloud growth indicators before considering entry.
Do not buy solely because the P/E is low. High debt and modest total growth can keep a stock cheap for a long time.
Track the fiscal Q4 report on August 6, 2026, total revenue growth, cloud services mix, enterprise cloud bookings, free cash flow growth against the raised 22% to 25% outlook, debt reduction pace, share repurchases, and updates from CEO Ayman Antoun on the growth plan.
Lower the rating if cloud growth stalls, total revenue turns negative, debt stays elevated without a clear reduction plan, or the dividend becomes less secure because of cash flow pressure.
Investment research summary
Open Text helps organizations manage, protect, and extract insight from their enterprise information. Customers pay because the software is embedded in content management, compliance, records management, cybersecurity, and B2B network workflows for large enterprises and government agencies, and the recurring revenue base is roughly 82% of total revenue.
The moat is three decades of content management expertise, enterprise switching costs, long G10K customer relationships, a broad integrated product portfolio, and strategic platform partnerships with SAP, Microsoft, Google Cloud, AWS, Oracle, and Salesforce.
The thesis fails if Open Text cannot grow cloud revenue while carrying about $6.42 billion in debt, if portfolio divestitures do not improve the mix as expected, if competition from hyperscale cloud vendors erodes the customer base, or if a weaker macro environment delays enterprise AI and cloud decisions.
Ayman Antoun became CEO on April 20, 2026 after an interim period, with a stated focus on disciplined execution, client outcomes, and a sustainable organic growth plan. The key governance question is whether the team can reduce leverage while investing in AI and cloud growth, with CFO Steve Rai flagging debt reduction as a capital allocation priority.
Open Text operates in enterprise information management, cybersecurity, and cloud services, where enterprise AI adoption is creating demand for governed, secure, and AI-ready data. The positioning as the data foundation for AI is favorable, but larger competitors like Microsoft and Google offer overlapping capabilities.
At roughly 12.42x TTM GAAP EPS and 7.59x TTM free cash flow per share with a 4.34% dividend yield, the stock appears inexpensive on cash flow. However, high leverage and modest total growth explain the low multiple, and the margin of safety depends on sustained cloud growth and debt reduction.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTEX price | $25.34 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com price snapshot (S&P Global Market Intelligence / CBOE) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $6.15 billion, verified as $25.34 x 242.66 million shares | StockAnalysis.com, financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 242.66 million common shares, down 5.39% year over year | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $5.21 billion, down 0.2% year over year (TTM ended March 31, 2026) | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $516.19 million GAAP (TTM ended March 31, 2026) | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $2.04 GAAP; consensus fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS near $4.23 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash and investments about $1.26 billion, total debt about $6.42 billion, net debt about $5.16 billion (-$21.25 per share) | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about $809.51 million (FCF per share about $3.34), up 14.2% | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 12.42x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.53x book value, 7.59x TTM FCF per share, 4.34% dividend yield, EV/EBITDA about 7.21x | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating from 12 analysts, average target $29.00, range $25 to $40 (median $27) | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global / TipRanks) | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 20-day SMA $23.35, 50-day SMA $22.87, 100-day SMA $22.83, 200-day SMA $27.20, RSI 14 about 63.20 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.78 to $39.90 | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.10 annual dividend (4.34% yield), quarterly $0.275, 12 consecutive years of growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 results | Revenue $1.283 billion (+2.2%), cloud revenue $493 million (+6.6%), non-GAAP EPS $1.01 (+23.2%), adjusted EBITDA margin 34.1%, free cash flow $305 million | OpenText Q3 fiscal 2026 press release (PR Newswire, May 7, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder ownership | About 1.67% held by insiders, 90.12% held by institutions | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 12.48 million shares short, 5.14% of shares outstanding, 6.81 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
This OTEX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold Open Text Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, and may be wrong if filings, market prices, business conditions, interest rates, debt reduction, competition, or investor expectations change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
