Oshkosh Corporation research snapshot
OSK AI stock analysis currently reads Oshkosh Corporation as a diversified purpose-built vehicle and equipment manufacturer with three operating segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $142.41 on July 31, the calculated market capitalization was about $8.79 billion, and the latest reported quarter was Q2 2026. Sales rose 6.7 percent to $2.915 billion, but operating income fell 16.6 percent and diluted EPS fell to $2.92 as mix, tariffs, and manufacturing overhead weighed on margins. Management raised 2026 sales guidance to about $11.2 billion while trimming adjusted EPS guidance to about $11.00 because fire truck throughput is improving more gradually than expected. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$142.41 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.79 billion calculated from 61.74 million shares
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Purpose-built vehicle platform with improving Access demand, a large backlog, moderate leverage, and near-term margin and fire truck throughput pressure
Trend status
Right at the 200-day average near $142.56 after the post-earnings pullback, with neutral momentum and no confirmed reversal yet
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Oshkosh makes specialized vehicles and equipment for access, municipal and vocational work, defense, airport operations, and postal delivery. | High |
| Moat | Engineering know-how, certifications, installed fleets, service networks, switching friction, and government procurement history support a practical moat, though large programs remain contestable. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Pfeifer and the operating team are managing Access order growth, a $14.75 billion backlog, buybacks, dividends, and the fire truck transformation, but slower throughput forced an EPS guidance cut. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue was $10.422 billion and net income was $647 million, while Q2 2026 sales rose to $2.915 billion with operating income down 16.6 percent and net income down to $183.2 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $142.41, exact checks produce about 16.28x TTM EPS, 1.95x book value, 7.82x free cash flow, and a 1.60% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The price closed at $142.41 against a 200-day average near $142.56 and a 50-day average near $140.25, with RSI near 45.54 and 20-day average volume near 905,909 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because tariffs, the fire truck transformation, refuse demand, defense procurement, USPS delivery timing, and customer concentration can move margins. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The factual dataset is well supported, but the expected NGDV order, defense contract repricing, and fire truck ramp create lower confidence in near-term returns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The case supports a disciplined watchlist or further research, not an automatic buy decision at the current price. | Medium |
OSK AI stock forecast
The OSK AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario exercise, not a point-price promise. Using TTM EPS of $8.75, annual EPS growth assumptions of 14%, 6%, and negative 8%, and target P/E multiples of 16x, 14x, and 10x, the financial_rigor.py model produces mechanical values of about $207.40, $145.90, and $68.10. These inputs are sensitive to the expected NGDV order, Access recovery, fire truck throughput, defense pricing, tariffs, and the multiple investors assign to cyclical industrial earnings.
$195 to $220 before dividends
More likely if Access margins recover on volume and price-cost, the fire truck transformation yields sustained higher throughput, NGDV scales to full-rate production with another order, defense repricing lands, and the market keeps a mid-teens multiple.
$130 to $160 before dividends
More likely if revenue grows near the 2026 sales guide, Q2 margin pressure partly reverses in the second half, the NGDV order arrives as planned, fire truck output increases gradually, and OSK trades near the 14x scenario multiple.
$60 to $76 before dividends
More likely if tariffs and manufacturing costs stay elevated, refuse and vocational demand weaken, defense revenue rolls over, the NGDV order is delayed, or a lower-cycle earnings base receives a 10x or lower multiple.
OSK AI technical analysis
OSK AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $142.41 and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot verified August 3, 2026. The stock pulled back after Q2 results and is trading right at its 200-day average near $142.56, with RSI near 45.54 showing neutral momentum. This static page does not fetch request-time charts, so moving averages, momentum, volume, and volatility should be rechecked before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $142.41 | Latest available close from July 31, 2026, used as the page cutoff quote. |
| Near support | $138.48 to $140.25 | This zone brackets the July 30, 2026 swing low of $138.48 and the latest verified 50-day moving average. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $116.77 | The published 52-week low was $116.77. A move toward this area would signal a materially weaker setup. |
| Near resistance | $152.50 to $160.68 | This band covers the July 28, 2026 close of $152.50 and that day intraday high of $160.68. A break needs volume confirmation and stable earnings expectations. |
| 52-week resistance | $180.49 | The published 52-week high was $180.49. A test of that level would require stronger momentum than the current neutral RSI reading. |
| 50-day moving average | $140.25 | Latest StockAnalysis snapshot verified August 3, 2026. Recheck after the next trading sessions. |
| 200-day moving average | $142.56 | Latest StockAnalysis snapshot verified August 3, 2026. The July 31 close is essentially at this line, so direction here matters. |
| Momentum and volatility | RSI 45.54; beta 1.23 | Momentum was neutral and five-year beta was above the market average in the latest verified snapshot. |
| Volume | 905,909 shares average over 20 days | Volume spiked around the July 28 earnings report. Compare future breakouts and breakdowns with this latest verified average. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $140.25, then $116.77 | A loss of the 50-day zone and the recent swing low weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 52-week low challenges the broader range thesis. |
OSK AI trading strategy
The OSK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects chart levels with segment margins, customer orders, tariffs, government programs, cash flow, and capital allocation. Position size, taxes, liquidity, and maximum loss rules must be set independently.
Watch for OSK to hold the $138.48 to $140.25 support zone and reclaim the $152.50 to $160.68 resistance band with stronger volume, improving Access and Vocational margins, and stable 2026 guidance.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below the 50-day average weakens the setup. Reassess immediately if management cuts guidance again or reports program cost pressure.
If OSK pulls back toward the moving-average zone, compare the price move with the next earnings release, order activity, tariff costs, NGDV output and the expected order, fire truck throughput, and operating cash flow.
Do not average down only because the P/E falls. Separate a temporary cycle drawdown from a permanent margin, contract, or customer concentration problem.
Track segment sales and operating income, price-cost recovery, manufacturing overhead, order backlog, USPS deliveries and the expected order, defense contract timing, inventory, debt, free cash flow, dividends, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if cash conversion weakens, the fire truck transformation keeps slipping, working capital absorbs cash, debt rises without productive capacity, or program economics require repeated revisions.
Investment research summary
Oshkosh sells purpose-built vehicles and equipment where reliability, safety, certification, uptime, service support, and mission fit matter more than the lowest sticker price. Its three segments serve access equipment, municipal and vocational customers, defense, postal delivery, airport operations, and related markets.
The moat is practical rather than absolute: specialized engineering, safety and government certifications, installed fleets, aftermarket relationships, production know-how, and switching costs for mission-critical vehicles. Large contracts remain contestable and commodity input costs can compress returns.
The thesis can fail through a prolonged access or municipal downturn, tariff inflation, manufacturing defects, warranty costs, defense budget changes, USPS order timing, fire truck transformation slips, customer concentration, or a loss of pricing power. The key question is whether current margin weakness is temporary or a reset in normalized profitability.
John Pfeifer is president and CEO, supported by a named executive team and segment leaders. The capital allocation record includes a regular dividend, share repurchases, and investment in capacity and technology. The next test is disciplined execution while fire truck throughput improves more gradually than originally planned.
Long-term demand is supported by infrastructure spending, megaprojects, municipal fleet replacement, logistics and parcel growth, defense modernization, airport investment, and worksite electrification. The counterforces are high interest rates, construction cycles, government budget shifts, tariffs, and alternative vehicle technologies.
Revenue grew from $8.282 billion in 2022 to $10.422 billion in 2025, while net income rose from $173.9 million to $647 million. Q2 2026 sales rose 6.7 percent to $2.915 billion, but net income fell to $183.2 million and operating income to $243.2 million as mix, tariffs, overhead, and the fire truck transformation weighed on margins.
At $142.41, OSK trades near 16.28x TTM EPS, 1.95x book value, 7.82x free cash flow, and 0.83x sales on the verified calculation inputs. The balance sheet had $403.6 million of cash and $1.103 billion of debt at June 30, 2026. The margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not just the headline defense or USPS narrative.
A long-term owner must be comfortable with cyclical industrial earnings, government procurement timing, tariff uncertainty, the fire truck transformation, execution risk, and moderate net debt. The page supports a watchlist and monitoring process. It does not establish that OSK is suitable for any individual portfolio.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSK price | $142.41 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.79 billion calculated from $142.41 x 61.74 million shares; 0.03% variance versus the reported value used | SEC Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | $2.915 billion sales, $183.2 million net income, $2.92 diluted EPS, $2.87 adjusted EPS, and $243.2 million operating income | Oshkosh Q2 2026 release and SEC Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| 2025 net income and diluted EPS | $647.0 million net income and $10.02 diluted EPS | Oshkosh 2025 results release, SEC Form 10-K, and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 operating results | $5.233 billion sales, $226.3 million net income, and $3.59 diluted EPS for the six months ended June 30, 2026 | Oshkosh Q2 2026 release and SEC Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $403.6 million cash, $1.103 billion total debt, and $699.2 million net debt at June 30, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $8.75 EPS, $73.21 book value per share, $18.20 free cash flow per share, and $2.28 annual dividend | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $140.25, 200-day average $142.56, RSI 45.54, beta 1.23, and 20-day average volume 905,909 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Approximately $11.2 billion sales, approximately $10.50 diluted EPS, approximately $11.00 adjusted EPS, and $550 to $650 million free cash flow guidance | Oshkosh Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Order backlog | $14.75 billion total backlog at June 30, 2026, including Access $1.96 billion, Vocational $6.62 billion, and Transport $6.05 billion | Oshkosh Q2 2026 release and SEC Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| USPS NGDV program | USPS awarded Oshkosh a 10-year contract with an initial order for 50,000 vehicles and a potential program size of 50,000 to 165,000 vehicles; the NGDV fleet had surpassed 35 million miles by Q2 2026 | United States Postal Service and Oshkosh Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenarios built from available data and can be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, company guidance, contracts, and financial statements change, so verify current primary sources before making any decision.
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