Oshkosh Corporation research snapshot
OSK AI stock analysis currently reads Oshkosh Corporation as a diversified purpose-built vehicle and equipment manufacturer with three operating segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $146.34 on July 10, the calculated market capitalization was about $9.12 billion, and the latest reported quarter was Q1 2026. The business has durable customer relationships and specialized products, but earnings depend on construction and municipal cycles, defense program timing, tariffs, manufacturing execution, and the ramp of the USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$146.34 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.12 billion calculated from 62.351 million shares
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Purpose-built vehicle platform with defense and infrastructure exposure, moderate leverage, and cyclical execution risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with neutral momentum and no confirmed breakout
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Oshkosh makes specialized vehicles and equipment for access, municipal and vocational work, defense, airport operations, and postal delivery. | High |
| Moat | Engineering know-how, certifications, installed fleets, service networks, switching friction, and government procurement history support a practical moat, though large programs remain contestable. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Pfeifer and the operating team have managed portfolio brands, buybacks, dividends, and program ramps, but current margin pressure tests manufacturing and contract discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue was $10.422 billion and net income was $647 million, while Q1 2026 sales were nearly flat and operating income fell sharply because of mix, tariffs, overhead, and volume. | High |
| Valuation | At $146.34, exact checks produce about 16.24x TTM EPS, 2.05x book value, 11.12x free cash flow, and a 1.56% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The price was above the 50-day average near $137.94 and 200-day average near $141.20, with RSI near 52.81 and average volume near 653,636 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because tariffs, labor and manufacturing costs, municipal and access cycles, defense procurement, USPS delivery timing, and customer concentration can move margins. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The factual dataset is well supported, but the next earnings release and contract timing create lower confidence in near-term returns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The case supports a disciplined watchlist or further research, not an automatic buy decision at the current price. | Medium |
OSK AI stock forecast
The OSK AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario exercise, not a point-price promise. Using TTM EPS of $9.01, annual EPS growth assumptions of 14%, 6%, and negative 8%, and target P/E multiples of 16x, 14x, and 10x, the financial_rigor.py model produces mechanical values of about $213.60, $150.20, and $70.20. These inputs are sensitive to program execution, tariffs, segment demand, and the multiple investors assign to cyclical industrial earnings.
$192 to $235 before dividends
More likely if Access margins recover, Vocational demand and pricing improve, NGDV production scales without material cost overruns, defense awards remain healthy, and free cash flow supports buybacks while the market maintains a mid-teens multiple.
$135 to $165 before dividends
More likely if revenue grows near the mid-single digits, Q1 margin pressure partly reverses, the USPS ramp remains orderly, debt stays manageable, and OSK trades near the 14x scenario multiple.
$63 to $77 before dividends
More likely if tariffs and manufacturing costs remain elevated, access and municipal demand weaken, defense programs roll over, NGDV economics disappoint, or a lower-cycle earnings base receives a 10x or lower multiple.
OSK AI technical analysis
OSK AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close of $146.34 and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot verified July 9. The stock was above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while RSI near 52.81 suggested neutral momentum. This static page does not fetch request-time charts, so moving averages, momentum, volume, and volatility should be rechecked before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $146.34 | Latest available close from July 10, 2026, used as the page cutoff quote. |
| Near support | $137.94 to $141.20 | This planning zone brackets the latest verified 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $116.77 to $125.00 | The published 52-week low was $116.77. A move toward this area would signal a materially weaker setup. |
| Near resistance | $153 to $160 | This is an estimated planning band above the current quote. A break needs volume confirmation and stable earnings expectations. |
| 52-week resistance | $180.49 | The published 52-week high was $180.49. A test of that level would require stronger momentum than the current neutral RSI reading. |
| 50-day moving average | $137.94 | Latest StockAnalysis snapshot verified July 9, 2026. Recheck after the next trading sessions. |
| 200-day moving average | $141.20 | Latest StockAnalysis snapshot verified July 9, 2026. Holding above it supports the longer-term trend. |
| Momentum and volatility | RSI 52.81; beta 1.23 | Momentum was neutral and five-year beta was above the market average in the latest verified snapshot. |
| Volume | 653,636 shares average over 20 days | Compare future breakouts and breakdowns with this latest verified average volume. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $137.94, then $116.77 | A loss of the moving-average zone weakens the near-term trend. A break below the 52-week low challenges the broader range thesis. |
OSK AI trading strategy
The OSK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects chart levels with segment margins, customer orders, tariffs, government programs, cash flow, and capital allocation. Position size, taxes, liquidity, and maximum loss rules must be set independently.
Watch for OSK to hold the $137.94 to $141.20 support zone and reclaim the $153 to $160 planning band with stronger volume, improving Access and Vocational margins, and stable 2026 guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the moving-average zone weakens the setup. Reassess immediately if management cuts guidance or reports program cost pressure.
If OSK pulls back toward the moving-average zone, compare the price move with the next earnings release, order activity, tariff costs, NGDV output, defense awards, and operating cash flow.
Do not average down only because the P/E falls. Separate a temporary cycle drawdown from a permanent margin, contract, or customer concentration problem.
Track segment sales and operating income, price-cost recovery, manufacturing overhead, order backlog, USPS deliveries, defense contract timing, inventory, debt, free cash flow, dividends, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if cash conversion weakens, working capital absorbs cash, debt rises without productive capacity, or program economics require repeated revisions.
Investment research summary
Oshkosh sells purpose-built vehicles and equipment where reliability, safety, certification, uptime, service support, and mission fit matter more than the lowest sticker price. Its three segments serve access equipment, municipal and vocational customers, defense, postal delivery, airport operations, and related markets.
The moat is practical rather than absolute: specialized engineering, safety and government certifications, installed fleets, aftermarket relationships, production know-how, and switching costs for mission-critical vehicles. Large contracts remain contestable and commodity input costs can compress returns.
The thesis can fail through a prolonged access or municipal downturn, tariff inflation, manufacturing defects, warranty costs, defense budget changes, USPS delays, NGDV cost overruns, customer concentration, or a loss of pricing power. The key question is whether current earnings weakness is temporary or a reset in normalized margins.
John Pfeifer is president and CEO, supported by named presidents for Access, Transport, and Vocational. The capital allocation record includes a regular dividend, share repurchases, and investment in capacity and technology. The next test is disciplined execution while Q1 2026 margins are under pressure.
Long-term demand is supported by infrastructure spending, municipal fleet replacement, logistics and parcel growth, defense modernization, airport investment, and worksite electrification. The counterforces are high interest rates, construction cycles, government budget shifts, tariffs, and alternative vehicle technologies.
Revenue grew from $8.282 billion in 2022 to $10.422 billion in 2025, while net income rose from $173.9 million to $647 million. Q1 2026 sales were $2.318 billion, but net income fell to $43.1 million and operating income to $82.0 million as mix, tariffs, overhead, and volume weighed on margins.
At $146.34, OSK trades near 16.24x TTM EPS, 2.05x book value, 11.12x free cash flow, and 0.88x sales on the audited calculation inputs. The balance sheet had $250.3 million of cash and $1.147 billion of debt at March 31, 2026. The margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not just the headline defense or USPS narrative.
A long-term owner must be comfortable with cyclical industrial earnings, government procurement timing, tariff uncertainty, execution risk, and moderate net debt. The page supports a watchlist and monitoring process. It does not establish that OSK is suitable for any individual portfolio.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSK price | $146.34 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $9.12 billion calculated from $146.34 x 62.351309 million shares; 0.05% variance versus the reported value used | SEC Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue | $10.422 billion, down 2.87% from 2024 | SEC Form 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 net income and diluted EPS | $647.0 million net income and $10.02 diluted EPS | Oshkosh 2025 results release, SEC Form 10-K, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $2.318 billion sales, $43.1 million net income, $0.68 diluted EPS, and $82.0 million operating income | Oshkosh Q1 2026 release and SEC Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $250.3 million cash, $1.1468 billion total debt, and $896.5 million net debt at March 31, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $9.01 EPS, $71.45 book value per share, $13.16 free cash flow per share, and $2.28 annual dividend | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $137.94, 200-day average $141.20, RSI 52.81, beta 1.23, and 20-day average volume 653,636 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Approximately $11.0 billion sales, $10.90 diluted EPS, and $11.50 adjusted EPS guidance | Oshkosh 2025 full-year results release and Q1 2026 update | July 12, 2026 |
| USPS NGDV program | USPS awarded Oshkosh a 10-year contract with an initial order for 50,000 vehicles and a potential program size of 50,000 to 165,000 vehicles | United States Postal Service | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenarios built from available data and can be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, company guidance, contracts, and financial statements change, so verify current primary sources before making any decision.
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