Onto Innovation Inc. research snapshot
ONTO AI stock analysis reads Onto Innovation as a high-growth semiconductor process-control supplier whose AI-driven advanced-packaging, high-bandwidth-memory, and advanced-node demand produced a record $292 million in first-quarter 2026 revenue and management guidance for more than 30% revenue growth in 2026. The offset is price and volatility: at the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified July 31 close was $258.58, and that price multiplied by 49.74 million shares implies a market capitalization of about $12.86 billion, or roughly 120 times trailing GAAP earnings. The ONTO AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$258.58
Market cap
$12.86 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-growth process-control franchise with rich valuation and high volatility
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average, price below the 50-day average after a sharp June-to-July pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Onto sells inspection, metrology, lithography, and analytics tools that help semiconductor manufacturers detect defects and control yield; first-quarter 2026 revenue of $292 million was a record and Q2 guidance points to $320 million to $330 million. | High |
| Moat | Measurement know-how, qualified installed tools, process-data integration, and long customer validation cycles support switching costs, although larger rivals and rapidly changing process technology remain material constraints. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael Plisinski's team beat Q1 guidance across all key metrics, qualified the Dragonfly G5 at a 2.5D logic customer, and is buying a 27% Rigaku stake for about $710 million to extend into X-ray metrology. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $1.03 billion while trailing GAAP net income fell, but Q1 non-GAAP gross margin of 55.7%, operating margin of 26.7%, and a more than 30% 2026 growth guide show the operating line accelerating. | High |
| Valuation | The $258.58 close implies about 120x trailing GAAP EPS and 53.9x trailing free cash flow, but near 36x the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.20 if the growth plan is delivered. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $258.58 sits below the reported 50-day average near $292.92 and above the 200-day average near $221.13, following a sharp June-to-July pullback from a $386.46 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because beta is near 1.54, the company added $1.3 billion of convertible notes, customer and export-policy exposure is concentrated, and wafer-fab-equipment orders are cyclical. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, reported results, cash, shares, and market-cap math. Medium for forward scenarios because booking cadence and valuation multiples can change rapidly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The process-control franchise has real technical value and near-term demand is strong, but the return case requires sustained advanced-packaging adoption, margin delivery, and a stable multiple. | Medium-low |
ONTO AI stock forecast
The ONTO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $258.58 July 31 close, not a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.20 produced mechanical three-year outputs near $554 in a bull case, $348 in a base case, and $150 in a bear case. These outputs are sensitive to growth and price-to-earnings assumptions and are not price targets.
$348 to $554
More likely if advanced packaging and high-bandwidth-memory demand accelerates, Dragonfly G5 and Atlas G6 qualifications convert into orders, Q2 results exceed the $320 million to $330 million guide, margins keep expanding, and investors retain a premium multiple.
$259 to $348
More likely if revenue grows roughly in line with the more than 30% 2026 plan, new platforms ramp on schedule, gross margin improves toward the 56% to 56.5% Q2 outlook, and the market values Onto as a strong but cyclical process-control supplier.
$150 to $259
More likely if customer capital spending slows, new tools take longer to qualify, China-related or customer-concentration pressure rises, the $1.3 billion convertible raises dilution or leverage concerns, margin recovery stalls, or the valuation multiple contracts.
ONTO AI technical analysis
ONTO AI technical analysis starts from the $258.58 July 31, 2026 close reported by StockAnalysis. The stock set a 52-week high of $386.46 on June 30, fell to a July 29 low of $218.31, then rebounded. The reported 50-day moving average is near $292.92 and the 200-day moving average near $221.13, so price sits below the short-term average and above the long-term average. Moving-average, momentum, volume, and volatility readings on this static page are monitoring fields rather than live signals because no request-time chart feed is used. Check a current chart before using any level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $258.58 | StockAnalysis reported this regular-session close on July 31, 2026. The August 2 cutoff follows the latest verified close. |
| Near support | $250 to $259 | The July 31 close, the round-number $250 area, and the July 27-31 stabilization zone form an initial static reference area, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Major support | $218 to $221 | The July 29 low of $218.31 and the reported 200-day moving average near $221.13 mark a more important reference. A sustained break would weaken the longer structure. |
| Near resistance | $273 to $293 | The range spans the July 31 high near $273 and the reported 50-day moving average near $292.92. A reclaim needs fresh volume confirmation. |
| Major resistance | $304 to $351 | The mid-July recovery area near $304 to $320 and the June 29 close near $351 sit above. Reclaiming them would signal that the June uptrend has resumed. |
| 52-week high | $386.46 | Set on June 30, 2026. It is the top reference for a resumed advance and may act as resistance on any retest. |
| 50-day moving average | About $292.92 | Reported by StockAnalysis. Price was below it at the cutoff; treat the live value as the near-term trend reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $221.13 | Reported by StockAnalysis. Price was above it at the cutoff; use the live value to judge the longer trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.9 | Reported by StockAnalysis. The reading is neutral-to-weak after the pullback; do not infer an oversold or overbought extreme without current data. |
| Volume and volatility | Verify current volume and ATR | Late-July sessions showed large single-day swings of about -9.75%, +14.75%, and +3.22%, and beta near 1.54, so position sizing should account for fast moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below $218 | A break below the July 29 low and the 200-day area, especially with volume expansion or weaker fundamentals, should trigger a new thesis and chart review. |
ONTO AI trading strategy
The ONTO AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework for a high-volatility, AI-driven semiconductor-capital-equipment stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, a defined invalidation level, the August 6 earnings date, and current chart data.
Monitor whether ONTO reclaims the $273 to $293 resistance zone, including the reported 50-day moving average, with expanding volume while Q2 guidance execution and advanced-packaging demand remain constructive.
Predefine risk. A failed reclaim followed by a sustained break below $218 can invalidate the short-term setup.
If ONTO holds the $250 to $259 area and the $218 to $221 major reference, assess whether the decline is technical rather than a change in bookings, customer capital expenditure, product qualification, margin outlook, or management guidance.
Do not average down simply because price is lower. Reassess if fundamentals weaken, volume rises on declines, the $218 to $221 reference fails, or the August 6 report disappoints.
Track advanced-packaging and high-bandwidth-memory adoption, Dragonfly G5 and Atlas G6 qualifications, customer concentration, China exposure, Q2 revenue and margin delivery, cash, the $1.3 billion convertible, the Rigaku close, and share count.
Reduce confidence if order timing slips, gross margin misses guidance, the convertible or Rigaku spend pressures the balance sheet, or competitive tools displace Onto in qualified accounts.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Onto for process-control tools and software that find defects, measure critical dimensions, and improve yield in semiconductor wafers and advanced packages where manufacturing errors are expensive, and AI-compute demand is raising the value of that control.
The moat comes from measurement know-how, qualified installed tools, process-data integration, application support, and customer validation cycles. It can narrow when a competing platform offers better performance or a process step changes.
The thesis fails if capital spending reverses, advanced-packaging adoption slows, major customers defer programs, export restrictions reduce demand, the $1.3 billion convertible creates dilution or leverage strain, or valuation falls faster than earnings rise.
Management is executing on growth: record Q1 revenue, Dragonfly G5 qualification, and a $710 million Rigaku stake to extend into X-ray metrology. Investors should watch conversion of design wins to revenue, margin progression, and cash discipline with the new convertible.
AI computing increases the importance of yield, metrology, and inspection in leading-edge logic, memory, and advanced packaging, and management guides advanced-packaging revenue up more than 50% in 2026. The theme remains cyclical because customer capex and geopolitics govern order timing.
At roughly 120x trailing GAAP EPS and 53.9x trailing free cash flow, the price leaves limited margin for a demand or execution miss. The underwriting case needs the FY2026 consensus EPS near $7.20 to be delivered with durable product differentiation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO price | $258.58 at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.86 billion, calculated from $258.58 x 49.74M shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 49.74 million | StockAnalysis / S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.005 billion, up 1.82% year over year | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $136.76 million, down 32.19% year over year | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and non-GAAP margins | $292 million record; 55.7% gross margin and 26.7% operating margin | Onto Innovation Q1 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | $320 million to $330 million revenue and 56% to 56.5% gross margin | Onto Innovation Q1 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus forecast | $1.34 billion revenue and $7.20 adjusted EPS | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy, average target $369.60, range $330 to $450 | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $654.16 million at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Convertible notes | $1.3 billion of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2031 | Business Wire announcement | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Review primary filings, confirm live price data, and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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