Lam Research Corporation research snapshot
LRCX AI stock analysis reads Lam Research as a high-quality semiconductor equipment company that posted record FY2026 revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share on AI-driven demand for memory, advanced logic, and wafer fabrication tools. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, LRCX closed at $293.02, market capitalization was about $366.65 billion, and the stock had rebounded about 17% after the June quarter earnings report before settling near $293. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$293.02 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $366.65 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality wafer fabrication equipment leader with record FY2026 results; valuation and volatility are high
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average, short-term momentum volatile after a sharp correction and rebound
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lam Research sells mission-critical wafer fabrication equipment and services used in deposition, etch, clean, and process steps for advanced chips and memory devices. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from customer qualification cycles, process know-how, installed base service revenue, engineering scale, and deep integration with fabs that cannot easily swap tools mid-process. | High |
| Management | Tim Archer has led Lam as CEO since 2018, and the June 2026 quarter delivered record revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share with a strong September 2026 guide. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $23.23 billion, up about 26% year over year, with net income of $7.27 billion and diluted EPS of $5.76. The September 2026 quarter guide points to about $8.10 billion in revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $293.02, financial_rigor.py calculated about 50.87x TTM EPS, 29.39x book value, 74.94x TTM free cash flow, and a 1.33% FCF yield using the stated inputs. Forward P/E near 31x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 200-day moving average near $241 but below the 50-day moving average near $338 after a July correction from the 52-week high, leaving the short-term path unsettled. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if WFE orders roll over, memory spending pauses, China restrictions tighten, customers delay capacity, or the high valuation multiple compresses. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts, quote math, and guidance. Lower for forward returns because semiconductor equipment cycles can change faster than static data pages. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because Lam is a real bottleneck supplier for advanced chip production, but the current price leaves limited room for a WFE downcycle, another sharp correction, or multiple compression. | Medium |
LRCX AI stock forecast
The LRCX AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $293.02 July 31 close. The bullish case requires sustained AI-related WFE demand, memory recovery, guidance execution, and breakout confirmation. The base case assumes good fundamentals but a demanding multiple. The bearish case assumes a cycle slowdown and valuation compression at the same time.
$360 to $500
More likely if Lam executes toward the fiscal 2027 consensus near $31 billion in revenue, DRAM and NAND demand stay strong, China revenue remains manageable under export controls, and price clears the $318 to $338 resistance zone on volume. The financial_rigor.py bull scenario using 30% EPS growth and a 40x terminal P/E produced about $506 after three years.
$290 to $360
More likely if earnings keep growing but investors hold a demanding multiple on a cyclical equipment supplier. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 20% EPS growth and a 35x terminal P/E produced about $348 after three years, close to the average analyst target near $368.
$160 to $280
More likely if wafer fabrication equipment orders weaken, memory customers pause capacity additions, export restrictions pressure China-related demand, or the stock loses support after the data cutoff. The financial_rigor.py bear scenario using 5% EPS growth and a 25x terminal P/E produced about $167 after three years.
LRCX AI technical analysis
LRCX AI technical analysis starts from the $293.02 July 31, 2026 close. Price sits above the 200-day moving average near $241 but below the 50-day moving average near $338 after a sharp July correction and post-earnings rebound. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so live price, volume, moving averages, and volatility should be confirmed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $293.02 close on July 31, 2026 | Quote used for this page as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $250 to $293 | The post-earnings reaction area near $250 and the current quote zone. Treat this as a review zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $318 to $338 | The recent rebound high near $318 and the 50-day moving average near $338. A sustained close above this band would improve short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $338 | Short-to-medium-term trend gauge from July 2026 data. Price was below this level at the cutoff after the July correction. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $241 | Long-term trend gauge. Price was above this level at the cutoff, supporting a constructive long-term reading. |
| Momentum | Neutral to soft | RSI near 43.6 reflects the pullback from the 52-week high even after the strong post-earnings move, so failed breakouts near resistance would matter. |
| Volume | Elevated on earnings | July 30 trading volume was near 21.9 million shares versus an average near 11.5 million, confirming heavy repositioning around the earnings report. |
| Volatility | Very high | Beta is near 1.80, and the stock moved from about $438 to about $252 and then back above $290 within weeks. Semiconductor equipment names can swing sharply around earnings, WFE guidance, export controls, and customer capex updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $241 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the long-term setup and require a fresh review. |
LRCX AI trading strategy
The LRCX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for LRCX to reclaim and hold the $318 to $338 resistance band with volume that confirms institutional demand, while staying above the 200-day moving average near $241.
A close back below $293, a failed breakout, or a decisive close under $241 should invalidate the setup.
If LRCX pulls back toward the $250 to $270 area without a business thesis break, compare the move with WFE guidance, memory spending signals, gross margin, China commentary, and services growth.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the very high volatility and semiconductor cycle risk.
Track systems revenue versus customer support revenue, DRAM and NAND capex, foundry and logic demand, China mix, export control updates, September 2026 guidance execution, buybacks, and free cash flow conversion.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by AI headlines without matching revenue, orders, margin, guidance, or cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
Lam Research sells mission-critical process equipment and services that semiconductor manufacturers need to build smaller, denser, and more complex chips and memory devices at scale.
The moat comes from process recipes, customer qualification, installed base service relationships, switching costs, scale, technology/IP, and deep integration with memory, foundry, and logic customers.
The stock can fail if AI infrastructure demand proves cyclical, memory capex peaks, China restrictions bite harder, another sharp market correction follows, or investors stop paying high multiples for a cyclical equipment supplier.
Tim Archer has led Lam as CEO since 2018. Management delivered record FY2026 revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share and guided the September 2026 quarter to about $8.10 billion in revenue.
AI, high-bandwidth memory, advanced logic, 3D NAND, and packaging complexity are long-term demand drivers. SEMI forecasts record global equipment sales near $229 billion in 2028, but wafer fabrication equipment spending remains cyclical.
The current price embeds strong AI and memory expectations. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound into the valuation or if the price resets closer to normalized semiconductor equipment multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX price | $293.02 close on July 31, 2026 | Market quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $366.65 billion by $293.02 x 1.2513 billion shares; financial_rigor.py reported 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 revenue | $6.72 billion for the quarter ended June 28, 2026, up 15.1% quarter over quarter | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 press release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 EPS | GAAP diluted EPS of $1.81 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.82 | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 press release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $23.23 billion for the fiscal year ended June 28, 2026, up about 26% year over year; cross-validated with StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 press release and StockAnalysis | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $7.27 billion and diluted EPS of $5.76 for fiscal 2026 | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 press release | July 29, 2026 |
| September 2026 quarter guidance | Revenue of $8.10 billion plus or minus $400 million, gross margin about 52.0%, operating margin about 39.5%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.15 plus or minus $0.15 | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 press release outlook | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash and equivalents of $5.58 billion, total debt of $3.73 billion, and net cash of about $1.84 billion as of June 28, 2026 | Lam Research Q4 FY2026 balance sheet | July 29, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 50.87x TTM P/E, 29.39x P/B, 74.94x P/FCF, 1.33% FCF yield, and 0.35% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull $506, base $348, bear $167 after three years using 30%, 20%, and 5% EPS growth assumptions | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy consensus with an average price target near $368 from 35 analysts, ranging from $290 to $500 | S&P Global via StockAnalysis | July 30, 2026 |
| Industry market size | SEMI forecasts record global semiconductor equipment sales near $229 billion in 2028 and projects 300mm memory equipment investment above $50 billion in 2026 | SEMI press releases | July 14, 2026 |
| Management tenure | Tim Archer has served as Lam Research president and chief executive officer since 2018 | Lam Research leadership profile | July 31, 2026 |
This LRCX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and valuation math as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong.
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