OneMain Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
OMF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads OneMain Holdings as the largest U.S. non-prime personal loan company, now trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after Q2 2026 results showed 10% consumer loan origination growth, improving delinquency trends, and reiterated full-year guidance. The stock closed at $62.58 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $7.20 billion, computed as $62.58 times about 115.0 million shares and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. Q2 2026 diluted EPS was $1.32 and C&I adjusted diluted EPS was $1.31, down year over year from $1.40 and $1.45 because a larger reserve build absorbed the revenue growth. Managed receivables rose 7% to $26.9 billion, capital generation rose 3% to $229 million, and management kept its 2026 guidance for 6% to 9% managed receivables growth and C&I net charge-offs of 7.4% to 7.9%. The stock still carries a 6.71% dividend yield, a 9.44 trailing P/E, and roughly 5.5x net leverage, so this page frames scenarios and confidence levels instead of a certain price prediction, and it is for informational use only.
Current price
$62.58
Market cap
$7.20 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Improving non-prime personal lender with a high dividend yield, above its 200-day moving average, but still highly leveraged and credit-cycle sensitive
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after recovering from a July 8 low near $56, with improving delinquency trends, as of the July 31, 2026 close used for the August 3, 2026 cutoff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | OneMain originates, underwrites, and services secured and unsecured personal loans to non-prime consumers through a branch network across 48 states plus digital channels and partnerships, and also sells optional credit insurance and membership plans. It now serves over 4 million customer accounts, up 14% year over year, with growing auto finance and credit card lines. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from branch density in underserved markets, a long underwriting track record across credit cycles, state-licensed lending expertise, and repeat borrowing relationships, but the moat faces fintech encroachment on origination and a market that is mature and fragmented. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Doug Shulman has led the company since before the 2015 OneMain acquisition. Capital allocation in H1 2026 included repurchases of 2.5 million shares for $137 million, more than 3x the prior year H1 level, a $1.05 quarterly dividend, and continued investment in auto finance, credit cards, data science, and AI tools, while keeping a conservative underwriting posture. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 total revenue rose 6% to $1.6 billion, consumer loan originations rose 10%, managed receivables rose 7% to $26.9 billion, capital generation rose 3% to $229 million, 30-89 delinquency fell 7 basis points year over year, and FY2026 guidance was reiterated. | High |
| Valuation | At $62.58, OMF traded at 9.44x TTM EPS of $6.63, 7.94x forward EPS, 2.13x book value, and a 6.71% dividend yield, with a 23.28% ROE. The low P/E reflects leverage and credit-cycle risk priced into the stock. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $62.58 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day SMA near $58.14 and the 200-day SMA near $59.18, recovering from a July 8 low near $56, with a 14-day RSI near 62 and a 52-week range of $45.78 to $71.93. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Borrower credit risk in an economic slowdown, roughly 6.7x debt-to-equity, an elevated reserve ratio near 11.6% to 11.7%, a legacy back book that still contributes a disproportionate share of delinquencies, CFPB regulatory exposure, refinancing risk on the debt stack, competition from fintech lenders, and a securities class action investigation announced June 30, 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials and tool-verified ratios that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and the Q2 2026 earnings release and call. Medium for the forward view because consumer finance stocks can appear cheap in good times and expensive when provisions rise. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business model is proven across cycles and credit is improving, but the high leverage, the reserve build, and sensitivity to non-prime credit conditions leave limited margin for error if losses spike. | Medium |
OMF AI stock forecast
The OMF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $62.58 and the FY2026 consensus EPS near $7.08. A three-year EPS framework using FY2026 EPS of $7.08, growth of 12%, 7%, and -5%, and target P/E multiples of 10x, 8x, and 6x produced a bullish value near $99.50, a base value near $69.40, and a bearish value near $36.40. The base case aligns closely with the average analyst target of $69.50, and the wide spread reflects how much OMF depends on non-prime consumer credit health, funding costs, loan-loss provisions, and the multiple the market assigns to a high-leverage consumer finance company.
$90 to $105
More likely if the economy avoids a recession, unemployment stays low, net charge-offs land near the lower end of the 7.4% to 7.9% guidance, the bank charter application is approved, OMF continues buybacks, and the market rewards the improving credit and high dividend yield with a higher earnings multiple.
$64 to $75
OMF maintains its earning power near current levels as credit normalizes toward the middle of the guidance range, the dividend stays covered, receivables grow 6% to 9%, and the stock trades in line with the consensus target near 8x forward earnings.
$30 to $45
More likely if unemployment rises, non-prime charge-offs increase materially, OMF needs to rebuild its loan loss reserve beyond the current 11.6%, the dividend is cut or suspended, refinancing costs rise, or the multiple compresses toward 5x to 6x earnings as it did in past stress periods.
OMF AI technical analysis
OMF AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff shows the stock closing at $62.58 on July 31, above both the 50-day SMA near $58.14 and the 200-day SMA near $59.18, after recovering from a July 8, 2026 low near $56. The stock is below the January 2026 all-time high of $71.93, with a 14-day RSI near 62 and Barchart turning points clustering between $60.79 support and $64.59 resistance. All levels use current data and may shift as price action evolves.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.58 | StockAnalysis.com real-time close for July 31, 2026; market cap math uses about 115.0 million shares. |
| Resistance 1 | $64.07 to $64.65 | Barchart turning point near $64.07 and the July 29, 2026 earnings-day high of $64.65. |
| Resistance 2 | $71.93 | The 52-week and all-time high set in January 2026. A break above this level would negate the longer-term down-trend structure. |
| Support 1 | $61.94 to $62.06 | The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area and Barchart first support level. |
| Support 2 | $58.86 to $59.18 | The 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day SMA zone, with the 50-day SMA near $58.14 just below. |
| Support 3 | $55.77 to $56.12 | The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the July 8, 2026 swing low. A break below this zone would weaken the recovery. |
| 200-day SMA | ~$59.18 | The stock is above the 200-day SMA, a medium-term positive signal, after reclaiming it in July 2026. |
| 50-day SMA | ~$58.14 | The stock is above the 50-day SMA, and holding above it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
OMF AI trading strategy
The OMF AI trading strategy is framed as an analytical guide, not personalized advice. OMF is a high-yield, high-leverage consumer finance stock that tends to trade on credit-cycle expectations, the dividend trajectory, funding costs, and the bank charter news flow. Effective strategies monitor credit data, use the technical levels as references, and maintain risk controls appropriate for leveraged financials.
Look for OMF to hold above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $58 to $59 and to break above the $64.07 to $64.65 resistance zone on rising volume. A confirmed close above $64.65 targets the $71.93 all-time high area. This setup works best when credit conditions are stable or improving and the macro outlook supports consumer finance.
Risk control: if OMF loses the 50-day SMA near $58 and falls back below the 200-day SMA near $59, exit the position. A break below the $55.77 to $56.12 support zone signals a failed recovery.
Buy OMF near support areas such as $58.86 to $61.94, where the dividend yield approaches 6.8% to 7.1% and the stock prices in modest credit normalization. Set a target near $64 to $65 (prior resistance zone). Confirm the setup with a 14-day RSI below 40 and stabilizing credit indicators such as 30-89 delinquency.
Risk control: if OMF breaks below the $55.77 to $56.12 support zone or the company cuts the dividend, exit immediately. A dividend cut would likely reset the stock price lower.
Regardless of the strategy, monitor OMF loan-loss provisions, net charge-off rates, 30-89 and 90+ delinquency, unemployment data, funding costs, the loan loss reserve ratio near 11.6%, and CFPB or regulatory actions. Because OMF carries roughly 6.7x debt to equity, small changes in credit costs or funding spreads have an outsized impact on earnings.
Risk control: position sizing must reflect the high leverage. OMF is a single-company consumer finance name, not a diversified bank. Diversification across sectors is required.
Investment research summary
OneMain lends money to Americans who cannot qualify for bank or prime credit card loans, collecting interest and fees that generate high returns on equity. Repeat borrowing from existing customers and branch relationships in underserved communities form the core of the business, now expanded into auto finance and credit cards, with more than 4 million customer accounts and 26.9 billion in managed receivables.
OneMain operates across 48 states with a long track record in state-licensed non-prime lending. Its competitive advantages include an underwriting model built through multiple credit cycles, brand recognition in lower-income markets, a regulatory infrastructure that is difficult for startups to replicate, and a large base of repeat borrowers. Fintech lenders pose a growing threat on the origination side.
The thesis fails if: (1) a recession drives non-prime charge-offs above the guided range, (2) the debt burden becomes unsustainable and forces a dilutive equity raise or asset sale, (3) CFPB or state regulators impose interest rate caps that destroy the business model, (4) fintech lenders with lower cost structures take significant market share, or (5) the dividend is cut, causing income-oriented shareholders to exit.
CEO Doug Shulman has been in place since before the 2015 acquisition of OneMain by Springleaf. Capital allocation in H1 2026 emphasized a $1.05 quarterly dividend, 2.5 million shares repurchased for $137 million, and investment in auto finance, credit cards, a new loan origination system, and internal AI tools. The 2023 CFPB consent order over add-on product sales raises questions about compliance culture, and a securities class action investigation was announced on June 30, 2026.
The non-prime personal loan market is mature and highly fragmented, but OneMain is the largest dedicated participant. Long-term demand is supported by a large population of Americans with subprime credit and limited access to traditional bank credit. The risk is that fintech lenders and digital banks gradually disintermediate the branch-based lending model.
At $62.58, OMF trades at 9.44x TTM EPS, 7.94x forward EPS, and a 6.71% dividend yield. The three-scenario valuation gives a base case near $69.40 (roughly 11% upside, aligned with the $69.50 analyst consensus) and a bear case near $36.40 (about 42% downside). The margin of safety is thin in the base case, and the high leverage makes the bear case acute. Investors need a clear view on credit cycle positioning and dividend sustainability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.58 (close Jul 31, 2026; after-hours $62.40) | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.20 billion | StockAnalysis.com (tool-verified) | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | ~115.0 million | StockAnalysis.com / Barchart | August 2, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 9.44x | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 7.94x | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $6.63 | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Price / Book (MRQ) | 2.13x | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| ROE (TTM) | 23.28% | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.02 billion (net interest income and fee income basis) | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $781 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Profit margin (TTM) | 25.86% | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend yield (indicated) | 6.71% ($4.20 annualized) | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt / equity (MRQ) | 6.73x (about 673%) | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $22.77 billion (StockAnalysis); $23.1 billion principal debt (Q2 2026) | StockAnalysis.com / Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $567 million (including $171 million held at regulated insurance subsidiaries) | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 diluted EPS | $1.32 (vs $1.40 prior year); C&I adjusted $1.31 (vs $1.45) | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 managed receivables | $26.9 billion, up 7% year over year | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 consumer loan net charge-offs | 7.77% (down 25 bps sequentially, up 58 bps year over year) | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Consumer loan 30+ delinquency | 5.17% at June 30, 2026; 90+ at 2.15%; 30-89 at 3.02% | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Managed receivables growth 6% to 9%; C&I net charge-offs 7.4% to 7.9%; OpEx ratio ~6.6% | Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week high / low | $71.93 (January 2026) / $45.78 (March 2026) | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $69.50 (range $60 to $85), 16 analysts | StockAnalysis.com / S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
This OMF AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Forecasts and scenario ranges are based on publicly available data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and may be materially different from future outcomes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in equities, particularly high-leverage consumer finance companies, involves risk of loss. Consult a licensed financial advisor for personalized investment guidance.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
