Nextpower Inc. research snapshot
NXT AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Nextpower, formerly Nextracker, as a profitable utility-scale solar tracker leader expanding into inverters, energy storage, eBOS, foundations, and software, but the shares have fallen sharply from the May 2026 high. The stock closed at $89.87 on July 31, 2026, down 7.25% on the day after the July 30, 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 report, with a market capitalization near $13.63 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $89.87 times 151.65 million shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q1 fiscal 2027 delivered record revenue of $935 million, up 8% year over year and 6% sequentially, adjusted gross margin of 37%, adjusted EBITDA of $233 million at a 25% margin, adjusted EPS of $1.20 versus consensus near $1.04, and more than $1 billion of bookings with tracker backlog above $5.5 billion plus more than $300 million of energy storage backlog, and the company raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to revenue of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $870 million to $930 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42 to $4.73. The stock is still about 45% below its $163.13 high from May 29, 2026, trades below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 36, and closed below the 200-day average, so the technical trend remains weak even though the fundamental picture improved. The NXT AI stock forecast below uses scenarios, not a precise prediction. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$89.87
Market cap
$13.63 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable solar and storage platform at a de-rated price after a sharp drawdown
Trend status
Bearish near term; below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nextpower is a profitable utility-scale solar tracker leader expanding into inverters, energy storage, eBOS, foundations, robotics, and software, with TTM revenue near $3.63 billion, no debt, and roughly $1.21 billion of cash. | High |
| Moat | Wood Mackenzie ranked Nextpower the number one solar tracker company in the U.S. at 55% share and globally at 30% share for the 11th consecutive year, backed by more than 160 GW of cumulative deployments, engineering and supply chain scale, and tier 1 customer relationships. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Dan Shugar is executing a platform strategy through organic R&D and disciplined M&A, including the Prevalon energy storage and Apex inverter acquisitions and the pending Zimmermann deal. The capital allocation test is whether these bets earn returns above the tracker core. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue rose 8% year over year to a record $935 million, adjusted gross margin was 37%, adjusted EBITDA was $233 million at a 25% margin, adjusted EPS was $1.20, and fiscal 2027 guidance was raised. FY2026 revenue was $3.559 billion and net income was $585.88 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $89.87, the stock trades at about 23.2x trailing EPS, 18.7x forward EPS, and 24.8x trailing free cash flow, with a PEG near 1.0. The multiple is far below the peak but still assumes continued growth and durable margins. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NXT closed at $89.87 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day average near $117.65, 100-day average near $118.54, and 200-day average near $108.98, with 14-day RSI near 36 and 14-day ADX near 22 confirming a developing downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because results depend on utility-scale project schedules, tariffs and trade policy, inverter and storage ramps, acquisitions, customer financing, and margin pressure from new businesses, against a backdrop of a sharply de-rated share price. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the reported figures and cross-checked math. Medium for forward estimates because policy, tariff recovery timing, storage and inverter execution, project timing, and valuation multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Strong reported results and a net cash balance sheet support the thesis, while a weak technical trend, policy exposure, and execution risk in newer categories limit the certainty of near-term returns. | Medium |
NXT AI stock forecast
The NXT AI stock forecast uses scenario math, not a price promise. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation using the $4.72 fiscal 2027 consensus EPS, an $89.87 price reference, and separate growth and P/E assumptions produces three-year mechanical outputs of about $177 in a bull case, $98 in a base case, and $49 in a bear case. These figures exclude the storage and inverter ramps, acquisitions, share dilution, and forecasting error.
$155 to $185
More likely if utility-scale solar and storage deployment stays strong, tariff recoveries continue, the Apex inverter and Prevalon storage ramps scale, the Zimmermann acquisition closes, margins hold, and the market keeps a premium multiple on a profitable clean-energy platform.
$90 to $105
More likely if revenue keeps growing in the mid-teens, the fiscal 2027 guidance path of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion revenue and $4.42 to $4.73 adjusted EPS holds, and the stock stabilizes near a 19x to 20x forward multiple.
$40 to $55
More likely if project financing or policy weakens, tariffs or supply costs compress margins, the inverter and storage businesses consume capital without returns, backlog converts slowly, or the market keeps de-rating solar equipment earnings toward a 10x to 11x multiple.
NXT AI technical analysis
NXT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing snapshot available before the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both placed the 50-day average near $117.65, the 100-day near $118.54, and the 200-day near $108.98, with 14-day RSI near 35.8 and 20-day average volume near 3.09 million shares. Price closed at $89.87, below all three trend averages, after a 7.25% drop on July 31. Static levels need live-chart confirmation before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $89.87 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 151.65 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $85 to $90 | The stock closed near the bottom of its $89.24 to $105.16 July 31 range. A sustained loss of this zone should be checked with current volume and the wider market trend. |
| Next support | $70 to $78 | The next recognizable support cluster sits below the current level in the low $70s, roughly the range implied by analyst targets near $70 and the bearish scenario area. |
| Near resistance | $96 to $104 | The July 31 open near $103.67 and the 20-day average near $103.76 form the first overhead zone, with the 5-day average near $95.70 just above price. |
| 50-day moving average | $117.65 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day average near $117.65 on July 31, 2026, well above price. |
| 200-day moving average | $108.98 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day trend line near $108.98, now above price after the recent decline. |
| 100-day moving average | $118.54 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $118.54 on July 31, 2026, above price and confirming the medium-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36 | 14-day RSI was near 35.8 on StockAnalysis.com and Barchart, weak but not yet in extreme oversold territory, while 14-day ADX near 22.2 with negative DI above positive DI confirmed a downtrend. |
| Volume | About 3.09M average shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 3,087,899 shares and Barchart near 3,088,905 on July 31, 2026; the July 31 decline printed about 6.19 million shares, above average. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.95 | The published beta near 1.95 and Barchart 14-day historical volatility near 70% point to very large price swings, so position sizing should account for gap risk. |
| Invalidation | Sustained reclaim of the 200-day average | For a mean-reversion or trend-following thesis, a sustained close back above the 200-day average near $109, followed by the 50-day near $118, would weaken the bearish setup; a daily close below the $89.24 July 31 low would open the next support zone. |
NXT AI trading strategy
The NXT AI trading strategy is a non-personalized framework for a high-volatility, de-rated solar and storage stock. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use current price data, position sizing, an invalidation level, and the earnings calendar.
In a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day average, the conservative direction is to wait for a structural reclaim, not to fight the tape. Watch for price to hold a reclaim of the 200-day near $109 and then the 50-day near $118 with volume confirmation before treating the trend as reversed.
Keep risk modest because the stock fell about 45% from its May high and beta near 1.95 amplifies swings. Do not average down without a defined maximum loss rule.
Only assess a bounce near the $85 to $90 zone after checking whether it follows market volatility or a company-specific issue such as tariffs, project delays, margin pressure, or acquisition execution. Look for stabilization with rising volume and a reclaim of the 20-day average near $104 before acting.
Treat a daily close below $89.24 as a failed stabilization. Confirm the move with live revenue, backlog, margin, storage and inverter ramp, and guidance evidence.
Track quarterly revenue, bookings, tracker and non-tracker mix, backlog, adjusted gross and EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, cash, share count, inverter and storage shipment milestones, tariff recoveries, and the pending Zimmermann acquisition each quarter.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth relies on acquisitions or tariff recoveries rather than organic demand, if margins fall as new businesses scale, or if share count rises faster than earnings growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nextpower to design, supply, and support solar tracking systems and related products, now including inverters, energy storage, eBOS, foundations, robotics, and TrueCapture software, for utility-scale solar and storage projects. Most direct customers are EPCs, while developers and owners influence product selection.
Nextpower has shipped more than 160 GW of tracker systems and holds the number one U.S. and global solar tracker position per Wood Mackenzie at 55% and 30% share for the 11th consecutive year. Engineering capability, supply chain scale, tier 1 relationships, and installed-base knowledge support switching costs, but competition and technology shifts remain real.
The thesis can fail if utility-scale projects are canceled or delayed, if tariffs and freight costs compress margins despite recoveries, if the inverter and storage businesses consume capital without earning returns, if backlog converts slowly, if the pending Zimmermann deal does not close, or if share dilution from acquisitions outpaces earnings growth.
Dan Shugar founded the company and remains CEO. The capital allocation test is whether the Prevalon storage, Apex inverter, and pending Zimmermann acquisitions, plus organic R&D above $100 million a year, raise long-term per-share returns rather than broaden the catalog without adequate returns, while the board keeps a $500 million buyback authorization.
Global electricity demand growth from electrification, AI data centers, and industrial growth supports solar and storage, which the company cites as the fastest, lowest-cost capacity additions. Policy, tariffs, grid constraints, project financing, and an inverter import policy environment can interrupt that trend.
At $89.87, NXT traded at about 23.2x trailing EPS, 18.7x forward EPS, and 24.8x trailing free cash flow in the model, with about $1.21 billion of net cash and no debt. The share price already de-rated sharply from the $163.13 high, so the margin of safety is wider than in May but still depends on execution in newer categories.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NXT closing price | $89.87 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 7.25% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $13.63 billion, verified as $89.87 times 151.65 million shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue | $935 million, up 8% year over year and 6% sequentially, a record quarter, versus consensus near $943.21 million | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release and call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 profitability | Adjusted gross profit of $342 million at a 37% adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA of $233 million at a 25% margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.20 versus consensus near $1.04 | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 cash flow and balance sheet | Operating cash flow of $121 million and adjusted free cash flow of $105 million in the quarter, closing with over $1.2 billion of cash and no debt | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 guidance | Revenue of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $870 million to $930 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42 to $4.73, raised from the prior range | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call guidance update | July 30, 2026 |
| Backlog and bookings | Backlog above $5.5 billion, up from $5.25 billion, plus more than $300 million of energy storage backlog, with bookings above $1 billion in the quarter | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Revenue mix and geography | Non-tracker products near 14% of Q1 revenue, with about 83% U.S. and 17% rest of world revenue mix | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Market position | Number one solar tracker in the U.S. at 55% share and globally at 30% share per Wood Mackenzie 2025, for the 11th consecutive year, with more than 160 GW of cumulative deployments | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| M&A and product expansion | Prevalon energy storage acquisition closed with over $300 million of additional backlog, Apex inverter acquisition closed with UL 1741 SB certification and a plan for over 10 GW of U.S. capacity, and the Zimmermann PV-Steel Group acquisition pending | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call and Business Wire | July 30, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Board-approved $500 million share repurchase authorization | Nextpower Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $3.559 billion, up 20.28% from FY2025, matching across StockAnalysis.com financials and the fiscal year filings | StockAnalysis.com financials and Nextpower FY2026 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and diluted EPS | $585.88 million net income and $3.84 diluted EPS, up 15.07% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and margins | TTM revenue of $3.63 billion up 16.97%, with TTM gross margin of 33.45%, operating margin of 19.34%, and profit margin of 16.36% on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $602.65 million, capital expenditures of $53.92 million, and free cash flow of $548.73 million over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | About $1.214 billion of cash and cash equivalents, no debt, net cash of $1.214 billion or $7.89 per share, total assets of $4.262 billion, and shareholders equity of $2.557 billion as of July 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 23.21x trailing PE, 18.65x forward PE, 3.75x sales, 5.30x book value, 24.84x free cash flow, PEG 1.00, EV/EBITDA 16.88, and EV/FCF 22.63 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Gross margin data variance | The statistics page reports TTM gross profit of $834.35 million and a 22.98% gross margin while the financials page reports gross profit of $1.214 billion and a 33.45% gross margin under a different cost classification | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $144.64 across 28 analysts, median $147, low $70 and high $182 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 18 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 28 | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | JPMorgan $179 to $152, Susquehanna $168 to $157, Goldman Sachs $148 to $141, RBC Capital $149 to $147, Freedom Broker upgraded to Buy at $122 from $146, BMO Capital upgraded to Outperform at $132, Northland Securities reiterated Buy at $162, TD Cowen maintained Hold at $118 | StockAnalysis.com forecast news feed and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 and 2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate $4.35 billion with adjusted EPS $4.72, FY2028 revenue $5.20 billion with adjusted EPS $5.92, 3-year revenue growth forecast near 18.75% and EPS growth near 16.38% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.21 million shares short, 4.75% of shares outstanding, 1.90 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Price history and drawdown | 52-week range of $52.61 to $163.13, with the stock about 45% below the May 29, 2026 high of $163.13 after the July 31, 2026 close of $89.85, and the July 31 session ranging from $89.24 to $105.16 on 6.19 million shares | StockAnalysis.com historical prices | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $95.70, 20-day SMA near $103.76, 50-day SMA near $117.65, 100-day SMA near $118.54, 200-day SMA near $108.98, 14-day RSI near 35.8, 14-day ADX near 22.2, 14-day historical volatility near 70% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This NXT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, tariff or policy changes, project timing, market moves, or macro conditions.
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