Bullish case
$330 to $413
More likely if U.S. manufacturing policy remains supportive, backlog converts at attractive margins, Section 45X economics stay valuable, and price recaptures key resistance with volume.
First Solar, Inc. research snapshot
FSLR AI Stock Analysis
FSLR AI stock analysis currently reads First Solar, Inc. as a profitable U.S.-based thin-film solar manufacturer with a strong net cash balance, visible contracted backlog, and material exposure to U.S. clean energy policy. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, the quoted price was $227.72, market capitalization was about $24.51 billion, and the core question was whether durable U.S. manufacturing advantages can offset tariff, subsidy, execution, and valuation risk. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is informational research only.
Current price
$227.72
Market cap
$24.51 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Profitable solar manufacturer with policy-sensitive upside
Trend status
Correcting after a strong 52-week advance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. First Solar has long public filings, current quarterly presentations, active analyst coverage, and third-party financial data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is consensus anchoring around U.S. policy support and AI power demand. The analysis separates filed numbers from policy-sensitive judgments.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business has verified profitability and liquidity, but the investment case depends on policy, pricing discipline, customer commitments, and live chart confirmation.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Solar sells cadmium telluride thin-film PV modules mainly into utility-scale solar projects and benefits from U.S. manufacturing scale. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from differentiated thin-film technology, domestic capacity, contracted backlog, balance sheet strength, and production know-how. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has emphasized pricing discipline, delivery certainty, capacity expansion, and balance sheet protection through cycles. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 net sales reached about $5.2 billion, Q1 2026 net sales rose 24% year over year, and Q1 cash plus marketable securities were about $2.44 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At about 14.7x TTM EPS, valuation is not extreme for current earnings, but it assumes policy and margin durability. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price remains above the 52-week low but has pulled back from the $320.95 52-week high, so trend quality needs live moving average confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because tariffs, Section 45X economics, lawsuits, backlog timing, module pricing, and capacity ramps can change the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filed financial data and quote math. Lower for policy outcomes and forward share price paths. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. FSLR has stronger fundamentals than many solar peers, but the stock still requires scenario discipline and risk controls. | Medium |
FSLR AI stock forecast
FSLR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FSLR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $227.72 quote. The three-year tool output was $412.8 in the bullish case, $265.5 in the base case, and $132.7 in the bearish case. These are valuation scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$225 to $266
More likely if revenue grows at a moderate pace, margins normalize from peak levels, and investors keep valuing FSLR near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$133 to $190
More likely if policy support weakens, module pricing falls, backlog timing slips, legal or tariff risk worsens, or technical support fails after the cutoff.
FSLR AI technical analysis
FSLR AI Technical Analysis
FSLR AI technical analysis starts from the $227.72 quote and the July 8, 2026 stock snapshot. Because this static page does not fetch live chart data, moving averages, momentum, and volume should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $227.72 | Current quote used for this page as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $226 to $228 | Based on the same-day low area in the quote snapshot. A clean break would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $237.86 to $241.50 | Based on the recent intraday high zone reported by public quote sources. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use a current chart before trading because this page is static and does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend quality should be checked against a live chart or broker feed. |
| Momentum | Pullback from 52-week high | The stock traded well below the $320.95 52-week high in the quote snapshot. |
| Volume | About 1.92 million shares | Volume was close to the public average-volume snapshot, so follow-through matters more than a single print. |
| Volatility | Elevated monitoring priority | FSLR reacts to earnings, policy headlines, tariff news, and solar sector sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $226 | A close below the support zone would argue for reducing confidence in a short-term long setup. |
FSLR AI trading strategy
FSLR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FSLR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with fresh quotes, filing review, position sizing, and predefined invalidation.
Trend-following setup
Wait for FSLR to reclaim the $238 to $242 resistance zone and hold above it with volume that confirms institutional demand.
Invalidate the setup if price fails the breakout or closes back below the support zone.
Mean-reversion setup
If FSLR revisits the support zone without a thesis break, compare price action with policy news, backlog updates, and the next earnings release.
Avoid averaging down unless maximum loss, holding period, and post-cutoff news checks are defined first.
Fundamental monitor
Track net sales, gross margin, backlog, Section 45X credit economics, cash, debt, capacity utilization, and guidance changes.
Reduce confidence when the price move is policy-driven but not supported by updated margins, bookings, or cash-flow evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
First Solar converts thin-film solar manufacturing know-how into utility-scale module sales, with customers paying for U.S. supply, delivery certainty, and project-scale reliability.
Moat
The moat is based on thin-film technology, U.S. manufacturing scale, long-term contracted backlog, balance sheet flexibility, and accumulated production experience.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if policy credits fade, tariffs shift against the company, module prices compress, backlog converts slower than expected, or new capacity ramps poorly.
Management
CEO Mark Widmar has framed pricing and delivery certainty as core advantages, but management must keep proving disciplined capacity expansion and customer execution.
Industry trend
Utility-scale solar remains tied to electrification, data center demand, and decarbonization, but the industry is cyclical and heavily exposed to trade policy.
Valuation and margin of safety
The stock trades near 14.7x TTM EPS on verified inputs, leaving upside if earnings compound but less margin of safety if policy or margin assumptions reverse.
Source-backed data
FSLR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR price | $227.72 | Robinhood public quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $24.51 billion, verified as $227.72 x 107.45 million shares with 0.16% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 107.45 million | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net sales | $5.219 billion, cross-validated with company annual report and StockAnalysis | First Solar 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net income | $1.528 billion, cross-validated with company annual report and Macrotrends | First Solar 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $1.044 billion, up 24% year over year | First Solar Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and marketable securities | $2.44 billion, with $426 million debt and about $2.0 billion net cash | First Solar Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Contracted backlog | 47.9 GW and $14.4 billion through 2030 at Q1 2026 | First Solar Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 14.71x PE, 2.48x PB, 16.86% ROE, and 0.00% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This FSLR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, policy decisions, tariff rules, or macro conditions change.