Bullish case
$330 to $453
More likely if Section 232 turns out constructive, backlog converts at attractive ASPs, hyperscaler demand keeps booking momentum high, and price reclaims the 200-day moving average with volume.
First Solar, Inc. research snapshot
FSLR AI Stock Analysis
FSLR AI stock analysis currently reads First Solar, Inc. as a profitable U.S.-based thin-film solar manufacturer with record second-quarter gross margin, a large contracted backlog, net cash on the balance sheet, and heavy exposure to U.S. clean energy trade policy. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the closing quote was $211.03, market capitalization was about $22.68 billion, and the stock sat below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The core question is whether strong manufacturing execution and hyperscaler-driven demand can outweigh tariff uncertainty, customer contract cancellations, and a stock that is still correcting from its 52-week high. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is informational research only.
Current price
$211.03
Market cap
$22.68 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Profitable U.S. solar manufacturer with record margins and policy-linked risk
Trend status
Below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. First Solar has long public filings, a Q2 2026 earnings release from July 30, 2026, active analyst coverage, and third-party financial and price data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is consensus anchoring around U.S. policy support and AI power demand. The analysis separates filed and verified numbers from policy-sensitive judgments about Section 232, Section 301, FEOC, and future bookings.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business has verified profitability, record margins, backlog, and liquidity, but the investment case depends on pending trade policy outcomes, booking discipline, and live technical confirmation.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Solar sells cadmium telluride thin-film modules into utility-scale solar projects and reported record second-quarter and first-half sales volume in 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from differentiated thin-film technology, U.S. manufacturing scale, a 45.1 GW contracted backlog, domestic content alignment, and balance sheet strength. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has emphasized pricing discipline, cash-secured bookings, delivery certainty, and keeping net cash inside the $1.5 to $2.0 billion target range. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 net sales reached about $5.22 billion, Q2 2026 net sales were about $1.06 billion with a gross margin near 57%, and net income rose about 24% year over year to $423 million. | High |
| Valuation | At about 13.0x TTM EPS and 10.1x forward EPS, valuation is not extreme, but it assumes policy and margin durability and leaves limited cushion if assumptions weaken. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and well off the $320.95 52-week high, so trend quality needs live confirmation near the $195 to $200 support zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because Section 232 and FEOC outcomes, Section 301 tariffs, contract cancellations, module pricing, and capacity ramps can change the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filed financial data and verified quote math. Lower for trade policy outcomes and forward share price paths. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. FSLR has stronger fundamentals than many solar peers, but the stock still requires scenario discipline, policy monitoring, and risk controls. | Medium |
FSLR AI stock forecast
FSLR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FSLR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $211.03 closing quote. A three-year model produced about $453 in the bullish case, $296 in the base case, and $142 in the bearish case, which supports the ranges below. These are valuation scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$255 to $296
More likely if revenue grows at a moderate pace, margins stay near record levels, and investors keep valuing FSLR near a low-to-mid teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$142 to $190
More likely if Section 232 or FEOC outcomes dilute domestic content value, contract cancellations continue, module pricing falls, or technical support below $200 fails after the cutoff.
FSLR AI technical analysis
FSLR AI Technical Analysis
FSLR AI technical analysis starts from the $211.03 close on July 31, 2026, and the August 2, 2026 research cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch live chart data, moving averages, momentum, and volume should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $211.03 | Closing quote on July 31, 2026, used for this page as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $195 to $200 | Based on the July 28 to July 29 lows near $195.84 to $197.35 and the round $200 level. A clean break would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Lower support | $171.99 | The 52-week low. A break below near support would put this level back in play. |
| Near resistance | $217.13 | The July 31 intraday high reported by public quote sources. |
| 200-day moving average | $234.23 | Long-term trend quality should be checked against this level in a live chart or broker feed. |
| 50-day moving average | $245.17 | Price sits below the 50-day average, so short-term momentum is still negative. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43, below key averages | The stock is correcting from the $320.95 June 2026 high and closed below both moving averages in the quote snapshot. |
| Volume | Above-average on July 31 | Volume was about 3.49 million shares versus a 20-day average near 1.83 million, so follow-through matters more than a single print. |
| Volatility | Elevated monitoring priority | FSLR reacts to earnings, Section 232 and FEOC news, tariff headlines, and solar sector sentiment, with a five-year beta near 1.75. |
| Invalidation | Close below $195 | A close below the $195 to $200 support zone would argue for reducing confidence in a short-term long setup. |
FSLR AI trading strategy
FSLR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FSLR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with fresh quotes, filing review, position sizing, and predefined invalidation.
Trend-following setup
Wait for FSLR to reclaim the $228 to $234 zone and hold above the 200-day moving average with volume that confirms institutional demand.
Invalidate the setup if price fails the breakout or closes back below the $200 support zone.
Mean-reversion setup
If FSLR revisits the $195 to $200 support zone without a thesis break, compare price action with Section 232 news, backlog updates, and the next earnings release.
Avoid averaging down unless maximum loss, holding period, and post-cutoff news checks are defined first.
Fundamental monitor
Track backlog, ASPs, gross margin, Section 232 and FEOC outcomes, Section 301 tariffs, cash, debt, contract cancellations, and guidance changes.
Reduce confidence when the price move is policy-driven but not supported by updated margins, bookings, or cash-flow evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
First Solar converts thin-film solar manufacturing know-how and U.S. factory scale into contracted utility-scale module sales, with customers paying for domestic supply, delivery certainty, and policy-compliant content.
Moat
The moat is based on cadmium telluride technology including CuRe, U.S. manufacturing scale, a 45.1 GW contracted backlog, domestic content requirements in about 41 GW of that backlog, and net cash on the balance sheet.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if Section 232 or FEOC outcomes dilute domestic value, customer contract cancellations continue, module prices compress, or the South Carolina ramp and perovskite spending underdeliver.
Management
CEO Mark Widmar and CFO Alex Bradley have framed pricing discipline, cash-secured bookings, and balance sheet flexibility as core advantages, but management must keep proving execution as policy clarity arrives.
Industry trend
Utility-scale solar remains tied to electrification, data center buildout, and decarbonization, but the industry is cyclical and heavily exposed to trade policy and project financing costs.
Valuation and margin of safety
The stock trades near 13.0x TTM EPS on verified inputs, with an analyst consensus target near $255.73, leaving upside if earnings compound but less margin of safety if policy or margin assumptions reverse.
Source-backed data
FSLR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR price | $211.03, close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis public quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.68 billion, verified as $211.03 x 107.47 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 107.47 million | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| 2025 net sales | $5.22 billion, up about 24% year over year | StockAnalysis annual financials | August 2, 2026 |
| 2025 net income | $1.53 billion, up about 18% year over year | StockAnalysis annual financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales and gross margin | Net sales of about $1.06 billion, down about 4% year over year, with gross margin near 57%, up about 12 percentage points | First Solar Q2 2026 earnings release and call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and adjusted EBITDA | Net income of $423 million, up about 24% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 61% | First Solar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Contracted backlog | 45.1 GW and $13.6 billion in aggregate transaction value through 2030 | First Solar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Net cash | About $1.7 billion at June 30, 2026, within the $1.5 to $2.0 billion target range; TTM net cash was $1.53 billion | First Solar Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 13.01x PE, 2.20x PB, 4.21x PS, 15.12x P/FCF, and 16.89% ROE from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 36 analysts with an average price target of $255.73, a low of $150, and a high of $330 | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | July 31, 2026 |
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This FSLR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, Section 232 or FEOC decisions, Section 301 tariffs, contract cancellations, or macro conditions change.
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