Nexstar Media Group research snapshot
NXST AI stock analysis currently reads Nexstar Media Group as the largest local television station owner in the US, with a station portfolio that roughly doubled after the $6.2 billion acquisition of TEGNA closed on March 19, 2026. The stock trades at $190.53 as of July 31, 2026, representing a market capitalization of approximately $5.82 billion and a forward P/E of about 6x based on consensus 2026 adjusted earnings that include a full year of TEGNA and a political advertising cycle. The acquisition is under a court-ordered hold-separate after DIRECTV and several state attorneys general filed suit, so Nexstar and TEGNA currently operate separately while appeals proceed. This NXST AI stock analysis is based on public market data and company filings and is provided as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$190.53
Market cap
$5.82 billion calculated from $190.53 x 30.54 million shares outstanding
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Largest US local TV broadcaster that closed the $6.2B TEGNA acquisition in March 2026, now operating TEGNA under a court hold-separate order while appealing the injunction
Trend status
Rebounded off the June low near $154 to trade above the 50-day moving average near $179 but below the 200-day moving average near $200, with RSI near 59
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nexstar is the largest US local TV broadcaster and now owns TEGNA after the $6.2 billion deal closed on March 19, 2026. Distribution and advertising fees provide recurring cash flow, but linear viewership keeps shrinking and the combined debt load is high. | Medium |
| Moat | FCC broadcast licenses, retransmission consent agreements, scale across roughly 200 stations, The CW, and NewsNation create real barriers. The moat narrows as streaming and local over-the-top alternatives dilute the exclusivity of local broadcast. | Low-medium |
| Management | Perry Sook has led Nexstar for 30 years and built it from one station in Scranton to the largest local broadcaster, showing disciplined integration and capital allocation. The TEGNA integration is now paused by a court order, and the company is spending heavily on litigation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 8.47% to $4.95 billion and GAAP net income dropped to roughly $92 million to $109 million in a non-political year. Q1 2026 set records with $1.4 billion net revenue, $470 million adjusted EBITDA, and $420 million adjusted free cash flow. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $190.53, NXST trades near 6x forward earnings, about 8.2x free cash flow, 1.14x sales, and a free cash flow yield near 12%. The low forward multiple prices in litigation risk, leverage, and secular industry concerns. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price recovered from the June low near $154 to $190.53, above the 50-day moving average near $179 but below the 200-day moving average near $200. RSI near 59 and rising short interest add tension to the rebound. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include an adverse TEGNA litigation outcome, forced station divestitures, the roughly $12 billion debt load, retransmission fee compression, cord-cutting acceleration, and political advertising dependence. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high on reported market and financial data. Medium-low on forward scenarios because the court case and integration timing dominate the next 12 months. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The cheap multiple and strong cash flow could work if litigation resolves favorably, but the outcome is somewhat binary and leverage magnifies moves in both directions. | Low-medium |
NXST AI stock forecast
The NXST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges based on the $190.53 price reference, consensus adjusted FY2026 EPS of roughly $34 that includes a full year of TEGNA and a political advertising cycle, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited three-scenario model produced a bearish area near $145, a base area near $240, and a bullish area near $400, before dividends.
$300 to $400
More likely if the Ninth Circuit lifts the injunction, TEGNA integrates on schedule, the FCC repeals the national audience cap, FY2026 political advertising stays strong, and the market re-rates combined NXST toward 9x to 11x forward earnings.
$210 to $260
More likely if the litigation settles or resolves favorably with a delayed integration, TEGNA EBITDA and synergies come in mostly as planned, debt paydown resumes, and the multiple holds near 7x to 8x forward earnings.
$120 to $170
More likely if the court blocks or unwinds the TEGNA deal, forced divestitures or financing stress raise leverage, retransmission fees compress, cord-cutting accelerates, or the political year disappoints.
NXST AI technical analysis
NXST AI technical analysis shows a stock that rebounded sharply from the June low near $154.47 and now trades above the 50-day moving average near $179 while sitting just below the 200-day moving average near $200. The $190.53 close on July 31, 2026 sits in the middle of the 52-week range, and the next move depends on whether it clears the 200-day moving average on rising volume.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $190.53 | July 31, 2026 closing price reference used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $179 to $183 | The 50-day moving average area near $179 and the late-July consolidation range. Holding this zone keeps the rebound constructive. |
| Deeper support | $164 to $170 | The June breakout area that marked the start of the recovery from the June low. A pullback here would be a normal retest. |
| 52-week low support | $154 to $160 | The June 25 low of $154.47. A sustained break below this zone would signal a fresh leg down. |
| Near resistance | $196 to $200 | The 200-day moving average near $200.10 and the late-July intraday high near $199. A close above this would turn the medium-term trend positive. |
| Higher resistance | $210 to $225 | The July 2025 supply zone. Reclaiming it would point toward the upper half of the 52-week range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA near $179, 200-day MA near $200 | Price is above the 50-day but below the 200-day, a mixed-to-improving setup. A bullish crossover needs price above $200. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59 | Neutral momentum that has recovered from oversold levels in June, with room to run before hitting overbought territory. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume about 300,000 to 310,000 shares | Volume spiked on the late-June rally, including over 800,000 shares on up days, which supports accumulation. Watch for heavy down-day volume as distribution. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.90 | Below-market beta, but litigation headlines and political cycles can spike realized volatility. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $164 | A durable break below the June breakout zone would invalidate the recovery and reopen the path toward the 52-week low. |
NXST AI trading strategy
The NXST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized financial advice. It links the stock to the TEGNA litigation outcome, political advertising cycles, debt reduction, distribution fee trends, and moving-average levels.
Look for NXST to reclaim and hold the $196 to $200 zone (the 200-day moving average) on increasing volume, supported by positive court news, strong political bookings, or faster debt paydown. A close above $200 would confirm the medium-term trend turn.
If the stock fails at the 200-day moving average or breaks below $179, it suggests the rebound is losing momentum. Reduce exposure if the court orders divestitures, financing stress appears, or Q2 guidance disappoints.
If NXST pulls back toward the $164 to $179 zone while free cash flow stays strong and debt reduction continues, compare the lower price against dividend coverage, adjusted EBITDA trajectory, and the litigation calendar.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback coincides with adverse legal rulings, rising interest expense, or accelerating cord-cutting.
Track the Ninth Circuit and trial court decisions on TEGNA, political and local advertising revenue, retransmission and distribution fees, net leverage, adjusted free cash flow, The CW and NewsNation trajectory, and buyback activity.
Position sizing should reflect that NXST is a high-cash-flow, high-leverage story whose near-term price is dominated by a binary litigation outcome, not a steady compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nexstar for local broadcast reach that advertisers want and for must-have local channels that pay-TV operators carry under retransmission agreements. The TEGNA acquisition roughly doubles the footprint, so combined scale is now the core asset.
The moat rests on FCC broadcast licenses, retransmission consent, local market scale, The CW affiliation, and NewsNation. The moat is narrowing as streaming, connected TV, and local digital advertising dilute the exclusivity of linear broadcast.
The thesis fails if the court blocks or unwinds the TEGNA merger, if forced station divestitures cut scale, if retransmission fees compress during renegotiation, if the roughly $12 billion debt load strains cash flow, or if cord-cutting accelerates beyond the valuation discount.
Perry Sook founded Nexstar in 1996 and built it into the largest US local broadcaster. The TEGNA deal shows ambition, but the court-ordered hold-separate and heavy litigation spending test whether management can execute under an adversarial outcome.
US TV broadcasting faces secular headwinds from cord-cutting, digital ad migration, and audience fragmentation. FCC momentum to repeal the national audience cap and the ATSC 3.0 transition offer counterweights, but the structural trend remains negative for linear reach.
At roughly 6x forward earnings and a free cash flow yield near 12%, the market prices in meaningful litigation and leverage risk. The margin of safety depends on whether combined free cash flow can service the debt and whether the TEGNA deal survives the courts.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NXST price reference | $190.53 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quotes page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.82 billion calculated from $190.53 x 30.54 million shares, verified with financial_rigor.py 0.02% variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 30.54 million shares, down 3.92% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.95 billion, down 8.47% from $5.41 billion in FY2024 | StockAnalysis financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | Roughly $92 million to $109 million, down about 87% from $722 million in FY2024 | StockAnalysis quotes and financials pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net revenue $1.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA $470 million, adjusted free cash flow $420 million | Nexstar Q1 2026 earnings release and conference call | May 7, 2026 |
| TEGNA acquisition | $6.2 billion deal closed March 19, 2026 after FCC and DOJ approval; court-ordered hold-separate in effect | Nexstar Q1 2026 earnings call and Reuters | May 20, 2026 |
| Total debt and cash | Total debt about $12.1 billion and cash $379 million at March 31, 2026 | Nexstar Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward P/E about 6.06x, P/FCF 8.22x, P/S 1.14x, free cash flow yield 12.17%, dividend yield 3.91% | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.86 quarterly, $7.44 annualized; quarterly dividend declared on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Business Wire | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 8 analysts, average price target $251.63, range $205 to $290 | StockAnalysis forecast page (S&P Global) | July 28, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $154.47 to $254.30 | StockAnalysis quotes page | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool for Nexstar Media Group and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, market references, and valuation assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if the TEGNA litigation, fundamentals, rates, industry trends, or market structure change.
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