Nomura Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
NMR AI stock analysis currently views Nomura Holdings as a Japanese financial-services group whose Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale, and Banking businesses posted a record start to fiscal 2026/27. Nomura reported Q1 FY2027 net revenue of JPY 686.7 billion, up 31.2% year over year, and net income attributable to shareholders of JPY 145.6 billion, up 39.2%, with annualized ROE of 15.4% and assets under management at an all-time high of JPY 156.4 trillion. At the July 31, 2026 NMR close of $9.68, the ADR trades near 11.8 times trailing EPS using the stated inputs. The AI score is 64 out of 100 because reported earnings and balance-sheet data are clear and the latest quarter was strong, while market activity, interest rates, credit events, yen movements, and acquisition integration can still change the outlook. This NMR AI stock analysis is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$9.68 July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$27.88 billion reported market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Improving Japanese securities and asset-management franchise with record Q1 FY2027 results and a modest valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a strong 52-week advance
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nomura earns fees and spreads by serving individual, institutional, corporate, and government clients across wealth management, asset management, securities, markets, investment banking, and banking. | High |
| Moat | Japanese client relationships, licenses, distribution, research, risk infrastructure, brand, and a global institutional network matter, although the industry remains competitive and market cycles affect revenue. | Medium |
| Management | President and Group CEO Kentaro Okuda is pursuing recurring revenue, global expansion, banking, and asset-management scale under raised 2030 targets of 10% to 12% or more ROE and annual pretax income of at least JPY 750 billion. The capital-allocation test is whether acquisitions such as the Macquarie purchase earn their cost of capital and improve returns without excessive balance-sheet risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 net revenue rose 31.2% to JPY 686.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders rose 39.2% to JPY 145.6 billion. Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale, and Banking all reported higher revenue and pretax income. | High |
| Valuation | At $9.68, exact arithmetic using $0.82 ADR EPS and $8.07 book value per ADR gives about 11.80x trailing earnings and 1.20x book value. Free cash flow is not a clean valuation signal for a securities firm because working-capital and trading-asset flows dominate the reported figure. | High |
| Technical trend | The July reference price was above the 50-day average of $9.00 and 200-day average of $8.33. RSI near 57.54 indicates positive momentum after the stock made a 52-week high of $10.06. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risks include a decline in equity and bond activity, credit and counterparty losses, funding and liquidity stress, regulation, cyber incidents, yen translation, geopolitical shocks, and integration of acquired asset-management businesses. | High |
| AI confidence | Financial disclosures and calculation inputs are traceable, but AI cannot establish the next market cycle, credit outcome, policy decision, or valuation multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NMR is not an automatic buy. The case depends on sustained fee and market revenue, disciplined costs and capital, credit resilience, and evidence that acquired asset-management businesses improve recurring earnings, especially after a sharp 52-week price advance. | Medium |
NMR AI stock forecast
The NMR AI stock forecast uses three audited assumption cases rather than a certain target. Starting with $0.82 trailing ADR EPS and the $9.68 July 31 reference price, the three-year model gives values near $16.10 in a bullish case, $11.40 in a base case, and $6.60 in a bearish case before dividends. These outcomes are assumption tests, not price predictions.
$15 to $17.50 before dividends
More likely if ADR EPS grows near 12% annually, Japanese and global client activity stays strong, recurring assets and wealth revenue expand, the acquired asset-management businesses perform well, credit losses remain contained, and investors pay about 14x earnings.
$10 to $12.50 before dividends
More likely if ADR EPS grows near 8%, core businesses maintain the Q1 FY2027 improvement, costs and funding remain controlled, and the market values NMR near 11x earnings.
$5.75 to $7.50 before dividends
More likely if market activity weakens, credit or conduct losses rise, integration costs disappoint, the yen moves unfavorably for ADR holders, or the market applies an 8x earnings multiple after a period of elevated expectations.
NMR AI technical analysis
NMR AI technical analysis was constructive at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 31 close of $9.68, a 50-day moving average of $9.00, a 200-day moving average of $8.33, RSI of 57.54, 20-day average volume of about 1.10 million ADRs, and a 52-week range of $6.59 to $10.06. Refresh these figures before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.68 | The July 31, 2026 NMR regular-session close used for this page. |
| Immediate support | $8.95 to $9.05 | This zone brackets the 50-day moving average near $9.00. |
| Deeper support | $8.25 to $8.40 | This zone brackets the 200-day moving average near $8.33 and is the larger trend test. |
| Near resistance | $9.85 to $10.10 | This area includes the 52-week high of $10.06 reported by StockAnalysis and the round-number barrier near $10.00. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $9.00, 200-day $8.33 | Price was above both averages at the cutoff. A close below them would weaken the trend evidence. |
| Momentum | RSI 57.54 | Momentum was positive but lower than in early July, so price and volume should be read together rather than treating RSI as a stand-alone signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 1.10 million ADRs | Use the recent average as a baseline when assessing a breakout above the prior high or a break below moving-average support. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $6.59 to $10.06 | The range shows material sensitivity to Japanese markets, global risk appetite, currency moves, and financial-sector news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $8.25 to $8.40 | A sustained loss of the 200-day area would invalidate the stated trend-following setup and should prompt a review of market and fundamental conditions. |
NMR AI trading strategy
The NMR AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price behavior with client activity, recurring revenue, assets under management, market revenue, credit indicators, funding, capital actions, the asset-management integration, yen translation, and the next earnings release, which is not yet scheduled.
Watch for NMR to remain above $8.95 to $9.05 and clear $9.85 to $10.10 with confirming volume while quarterly results show healthy client activity, recurring revenue, credit discipline, and progress in asset management.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $8.25 to $8.40 should reduce trend confidence, especially if markets weaken or earnings show higher costs, losses, or weaker client flows.
If NMR retraces toward the $8.30 to $9.05 area, compare the updated price with ADR earnings, book value, dividend capacity, share repurchases, capital ratios, market conditions, and integration progress instead of assuming the prior high will return.
Do not treat a lower ADR price as value if the decline follows credit losses, a market downturn, funding stress, a regulatory event, or a material deterioration in the acquired businesses.
Track Wealth Management recurring assets and flows, Investment Management assets under management and fees, Wholesale revenue, Banking growth, operating costs, credit and counterparty exposure, liquidity, capital returns, asset-management integration, Japanese rates, and USD/JPY moves.
Position sizing should account for the fact that a financial-services balance sheet and cash flow can shift quickly with trading assets, collateral, funding, client activity, and market values.
Investment research summary
Clients pay Nomura to invest, trade, borrow, raise capital, manage wealth, access markets, manage assets, and move money. The firm connects Japanese savers and companies with domestic and international capital markets.
Nomura has Japanese distribution and institutional relationships, regulatory permissions, brand, research, capital-markets infrastructure, risk systems, and a global network. These assets support client trust but do not eliminate competition or market sensitivity.
The thesis can fail if market turnover and issuance weaken, client assets fall, rates or credit losses hurt results, funding conditions tighten, conduct or cyber problems arise, the acquired asset-management businesses underperform, or yen moves reduce ADR returns.
Kentaro Okuda is building fee and recurring-revenue businesses alongside the core securities franchise and has raised the 2030 targets to ROE of 10% to 12% or more and pretax income of at least JPY 750 billion. The critical test is whether acquisitions, technology, banking investment, and capital returns raise sustainable returns rather than simply adding scale and costs.
Japan has a large household savings pool and rising demand for investment and wealth advice, while global asset management can increase recurring fees. Securities and asset-management economics still depend on market levels, flows, fees, regulation, and investor confidence.
At $9.68, NMR does not carry a distressed valuation on the stated earnings and book-value inputs, but it also trades well above its 52-week low after a 43.8% advance. Margin of safety depends on converting the strong Q1 FY2027 results into durable returns, protecting capital and credit quality, and avoiding disappointment after raised expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADR quote, shares, and market-cap check | $9.68 July 31 close, 2.92 billion shares outstanding, and $27.88 billion reported market cap. $9.68 times 2.92 billion equals $28.27 billion, a 1.38% difference attributable to price and share timing. | StockAnalysis NMR overview and market-cap data; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| ADR ratio and official shares | Each NYSE ADS represents one Nomura common share. Nomura reported 3.089 billion issued shares and 2.923 billion outstanding shares at June 30, 2026. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 results and share data | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net revenue | JPY 686.7 billion, up 31.2% year over year. The company net revenue figure and the StockAnalysis TTM USD figure are consistent with the stated net-revenue definition. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 financial summary and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net income attributable to shareholders | JPY 145.6 billion, up 39.2% year over year, with annualized ROE of 15.4%. Diluted EPS was JPY 48.34. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 financial summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 business mix | Wealth Management net revenue was JPY 145.4 billion, Investment Management was JPY 98.3 billion, Wholesale was JPY 369.1 billion, and Banking was JPY 15.2 billion. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 financial summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Assets under management and acquisitions | Investment Management assets under management were JPY 156.4 trillion at June 30, 2026, an all-time high. Nomura completed the roughly $1.8 billion purchase of Macquarie public asset-management businesses in December 2025 and is seeking further U.S. fund-management acquisitions. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 results and Reuters reporting | August 2, 2026 |
| Equity and book value | Total NHI shareholders equity was JPY 3,834.3 billion and shareholders equity per share was JPY 1,311.94 at June 30, 2026. StockAnalysis reports book value per ADR of $8.07, which aligns with the stated inputs. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 financial summary and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | 11.80x tool-calculated P/E, 1.20x price-to-book, 2.69% indicated dividend yield, 50-day average $9.00, 200-day average $8.33, RSI 57.54, and 20-day average volume 1.10 million ADRs. | StockAnalysis NMR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash-flow source limitation | StockAnalysis reported negative TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow. Nomura reported Q1 operating outflows driven largely by higher trading assets and private-equity and debt investments, so conventional free-cash-flow multiples are not treated as a clean valuation measure. | Nomura Q1 FY2027 financial summary and StockAnalysis NMR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue context | Macrotrends lists ADR revenue of $31.406 billion for 2026, $31.263 billion for 2025, and $28.685 billion for 2024. Currency translation means this series should be used for direction, not mixed directly with Nomura yen reporting. | Macrotrends NMR revenue history | August 2, 2026 |
This NMR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data and assumptions available through August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if market activity, assets under management, credit conditions, funding, regulation, currency, integration, valuation multiples, or other conditions change.
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