Nomura Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
NMR AI stock analysis currently views Nomura Holdings as a Japanese financial-services group whose Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale, and Banking businesses benefited from active markets, recurring-revenue growth, and the Macquarie public asset-management acquisition. Nomura reported FY2025/26 net revenue of JPY 2,167.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders of JPY 362.1 billion. At the July 8, 2026 NMR close of $9.42, the ADR trades near 12.6 times trailing EPS using the stated inputs. The AI score is 62 out of 100 because reported earnings and balance-sheet data are clear, while market activity, interest rates, credit events, yen movements, and acquisition integration can change the outlook. This NMR AI stock analysis is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$9.42 July 8, 2026 close
Market cap
$27.73 billion reported market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Improving Japanese securities and asset-management franchise with market-sensitive earnings and a modest valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a strong 52-week advance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nomura earns fees and spreads by serving individual, institutional, corporate, and government clients across wealth management, asset management, securities, markets, investment banking, and banking. | High |
| Moat | Japanese client relationships, licenses, distribution, research, risk infrastructure, brand, and a global institutional network matter, although the industry remains competitive and market cycles affect revenue. | Medium |
| Management | President and Group CEO Kentaro Okuda is pursuing recurring revenue, global expansion, banking, and asset-management scale. The capital-allocation test is whether the Macquarie acquisition earns its cost of capital and improves returns without excessive balance-sheet risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025/26 net revenue rose 14.5% to JPY 2,167.7 billion and net income attributable to shareholders rose 6.3% to JPY 362.1 billion. Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale, and Banking all reported higher revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $9.42, exact arithmetic using $0.75 ADR EPS and $8.04 book value per ADR gives about 12.56x trailing earnings and 1.17x book value. Free cash flow is not a clean valuation signal for a securities firm because working-capital and trading-asset flows dominate the reported figure. | High |
| Technical trend | The July reference price was above the 50-day average of $8.33 and 200-day average of $8.10. RSI near 63.86 indicates positive momentum but less of a depressed entry setup. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risks include a decline in equity and bond activity, credit and counterparty losses, funding and liquidity stress, regulation, cyber incidents, yen translation, geopolitical shocks, and integration of the Macquarie businesses. | High |
| AI confidence | Financial disclosures and calculation inputs are traceable, but AI cannot establish the next market cycle, credit outcome, policy decision, or valuation multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NMR is not an automatic buy. The case depends on sustained fee and market revenue, disciplined costs and capital, credit resilience, and evidence that acquired asset-management businesses improve recurring earnings. | Medium-low |
NMR AI stock forecast
The NMR AI stock forecast uses three audited assumption cases rather than a certain target. Starting with $0.75 trailing ADR EPS and the $9.42 July 8 reference price, the three-year model gives values near $14.80 in a bullish case, $10.40 in a base case, and $6.40 in a bearish case before dividends. These outcomes are assumption tests, not price predictions.
$14 to $16 before dividends
More likely if ADR EPS grows near 12% annually, Japanese and global client activity remains healthy, recurring assets and wealth revenue expand, the Macquarie acquisition integrates well, credit losses remain contained, and investors pay about 14x earnings.
$9.50 to $11.50 before dividends
More likely if ADR EPS grows near 8%, core businesses maintain their FY2025/26 improvement, costs and funding remain controlled, and the market values NMR near 11x earnings.
$5.75 to $7.25 before dividends
More likely if market activity weakens, credit or conduct losses rise, integration costs disappoint, the yen moves unfavorably for ADR holders, or the market applies an 8x earnings multiple.
NMR AI technical analysis
NMR AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 8 close of $9.42, a 50-day moving average of $8.33, a 200-day moving average of $8.10, RSI of 63.86, 20-day average volume of about 1.43 million ADRs, and a 52-week range of $6.21 to $9.58. Refresh these figures before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.42 | The July 8, 2026 NMR regular-session close used for this page. |
| Immediate support | $8.25 to $8.35 | This zone brackets the 50-day moving average near $8.33. |
| Deeper support | $8.00 to $8.15 | This zone brackets the 200-day moving average near $8.10 and is the larger trend test. |
| Near resistance | $9.45 to $9.60 | This area includes the July 8 all-time closing high of $9.45 and the 52-week high of $9.58 reported by Macrotrends and StockAnalysis. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $8.33, 200-day $8.10 | Price was above both averages at the cutoff. A close below them would weaken the trend evidence. |
| Momentum | RSI 63.86 | Momentum was positive but should be read with price and volume rather than as a stand-alone signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 1.43 million ADRs | Use the recent average as a baseline when assessing a breakout above the prior high or a break below moving-average support. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $6.21 to $9.58 | The range shows material sensitivity to Japanese markets, global risk appetite, currency moves, and financial-sector news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $8.00 to $8.15 | A sustained loss of the 200-day area would invalidate the stated trend-following setup and should prompt a review of market and fundamental conditions. |
NMR AI trading strategy
The NMR AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price behavior with client activity, recurring revenue, assets under management, market revenue, credit indicators, funding, capital actions, the Macquarie integration, yen translation, and the July 28, 2026 estimated earnings date.
Watch for NMR to remain above $8.25 to $8.35 and clear $9.45 to $9.60 with confirming volume while quarterly results show healthy client activity, recurring revenue, credit discipline, and progress in asset management.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $8.00 to $8.15 should reduce trend confidence, especially if markets weaken or earnings show higher costs, losses, or weaker client flows.
If NMR retraces toward the $8.00 to $8.35 area, compare the updated price with ADR earnings, book value, dividend capacity, share repurchases, capital ratios, market conditions, and integration progress instead of assuming the prior high will return.
Do not treat a lower ADR price as value if the decline follows credit losses, a market downturn, funding stress, a regulatory event, or a material deterioration in the acquired businesses.
Track Wealth Management recurring assets and flows, Investment Management assets under management and fees, Wholesale revenue, Banking growth, operating costs, credit and counterparty exposure, liquidity, capital returns, Macquarie integration, Japanese rates, and USD/JPY moves.
Position sizing should account for the fact that a financial-services balance sheet and cash flow can shift quickly with trading assets, collateral, funding, client activity, and market values.
Investment research summary
Clients pay Nomura to invest, trade, borrow, raise capital, manage wealth, access markets, manage assets, and move money. The firm connects Japanese savers and companies with domestic and international capital markets.
Nomura has Japanese distribution and institutional relationships, regulatory permissions, brand, research, capital-markets infrastructure, risk systems, and a global network. These assets support client trust but do not eliminate competition or market sensitivity.
The thesis can fail if market turnover and issuance weaken, client assets fall, rates or credit losses hurt results, funding conditions tighten, conduct or cyber problems arise, the Macquarie businesses underperform, or yen moves reduce ADR returns.
Kentaro Okuda is building fee and recurring-revenue businesses alongside the core securities franchise. The critical test is whether acquisitions, technology, banking investment, and capital returns raise sustainable returns rather than simply adding scale and costs.
Japan has a large household savings pool and rising demand for investment and wealth advice, while global asset management can increase recurring fees. Securities and asset-management economics still depend on market levels, flows, fees, regulation, and investor confidence.
At $9.42, NMR does not carry a distressed valuation on the stated earnings and book-value inputs. Margin of safety depends on keeping returns near the reported 10.1% ROE, protecting capital and credit quality, and converting business expansion into recurring earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADR quote, shares, and market-cap check | $9.42 July 8 close, 2.92 billion shares outstanding, and $27.73 billion reported market cap. $9.42 times 2.92 billion equals $27.51 billion, a 0.81% difference attributable to price and share timing. | StockAnalysis NMR overview and market-cap data; Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| ADR ratio and official shares | Each NYSE ADS represents one Nomura common share. Nomura reported 3.089 billion issued shares and 2.901 billion outstanding shares at March 31, 2026. | Nomura share data and FY2025/26 financial summary | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025/26 net revenue | JPY 2,167.7 billion, up 14.5%. The company figure and the StockAnalysis USD figure translated at 159 JPY/USD differ by 0.01%. | Nomura FY2025/26 financial summary, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue context | Macrotrends lists ADR revenue of $31.406 billion for 2026, $31.263 billion for 2025, and $28.685 billion for 2024. Currency translation means this series should be used for direction, not mixed directly with Nomura yen reporting. | Macrotrends NMR revenue history | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025/26 net income attributable to shareholders | JPY 362.1 billion, up 6.3%. The company figure and StockAnalysis USD figure translated at 159 JPY/USD differ by 0.05%. | Nomura FY2025/26 financial summary, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025/26 business mix | Wealth Management revenue was JPY 487.9 billion, Investment Management revenue was JPY 258.5 billion, Wholesale revenue was JPY 1,162.2 billion, and Banking revenue was JPY 53.9 billion. | Nomura FY2025/26 financial summary | July 11, 2026 |
| Assets under management and Macquarie acquisition | Investment Management assets under management were JPY 136.9 trillion at March 31, 2026. Nomura completed the roughly $1.8 billion purchase of Macquarie public asset-management businesses in December 2025. | Nomura FY2025/26 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and equity | Cash and cash equivalents were JPY 4,298.7 billion and total Nomura shareholders equity was JPY 3,707.9 billion at March 31, 2026. The cash figure cross-checks within 0.01% after the stated USD conversion. | Nomura FY2025/26 financial summary, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | 12.56x tool-calculated P/E, 1.17x price-to-book, 2.76% indicated dividend yield, 50-day average $8.33, 200-day average $8.10, RSI 63.86, and 20-day average volume 1.43 million ADRs. | StockAnalysis NMR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash-flow source limitation | StockAnalysis reported negative TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow. Nomura reported FY2025/26 operating outflows driven largely by higher trading assets and private-equity and debt investments, so conventional free-cash-flow multiples are not treated as a clean valuation measure. | Nomura FY2025/26 financial summary and StockAnalysis NMR statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This NMR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data and assumptions available through July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if market activity, assets under management, credit conditions, funding, regulation, currency, integration, valuation multiples, or other conditions change.
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