National Health Investors, Inc. research snapshot
NHI AI stock analysis reads National Health Investors as a self-managed healthcare REIT built on a triple-net real estate portfolio plus a fast-growing SHOP operating segment, all geared toward private-pay senior housing. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified quote was $76.11 on August 3, market capitalization was about $3.69 billion, and the stock traded near 24.6x trailing earnings, 16.2x trailing FFO, and a 4.84% dividend yield. The company grew revenue 28.9% year over year in Q1 2026, raised Normalized FAD 11.6%, completed the $560 million NHC portfolio sale in July 2026, and now trades about 17% below its $91.38 all-time high. The central question is whether SHOP same-store headwinds and the reduced lease income from the NHC disposition can be offset by accretive new investments and occupancy recovery. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$76.11
Market cap
$3.69 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Healthcare REIT with a growing private-pay senior housing portfolio, investment-grade balance sheet, and a 4.8% dividend yield, trading above its 50-day moving average but below the 200-day average after a partial recovery from the June 2026 low
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average at $75.21 but below the 200-day moving average at $78.83, with RSI near 47 showing neutral momentum after a partial recovery from the $67.94 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NHI is a self-managed healthcare REIT operating two segments: Real Estate Investments (triple-net leases, mortgages, and mezzanine financing) and SHOP (operating senior housing). It owns roughly $2.56 billion of real estate at book value, employs 32 people, and is shifting toward private-pay senior housing. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from 30+ years of operator relationships, capital-market access, underwriting expertise, and a private-pay senior housing niche. It is moderate because competing capital can deploy into similar healthcare real estate when yields are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO D. Eric Mendelsohn leads a lean organization. CFO John Spaid retired on July 1, 2026 with Todd Siefert as successor, and Chris Maingot was appointed COO effective July 27, 2026. The capital allocation test is whether the $742.5 million of Q1 2026 invested capital and the SHOP expansion generate durable per-share FFO growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 total revenues were $115.13 million, up 28.9% year over year, with $40.02 million of net income to common stockholders ($0.82 per diluted share, up 10.8%). NAREIT FFO was $1.23 per share (up 7.9%) and Normalized FAD was $62.5 million (up 11.6%). FY2025 revenue was $379.29 million with net income of $141.98 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $76.11, NHI traded near 24.55x trailing EPS, 16.23x trailing FFO (the more relevant REIT metric), 9.21x sales, 2.45x book value, and a 4.84% dividend yield. The 8.07x forward P/E is distorted by the large 2026 disposition gain and is not a clean comparison for this stock. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NHI is above the 50-day moving average at $75.21 but below the 200-day moving average at $78.83 after a partial recovery from the June 2026 low of $67.94. RSI near 47 shows neutral momentum, and the stock is about 17% below its February 2026 all-time high of $91.38. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a REIT. Key risks are SHOP same-store NOI pressure, the Bickford tenant which is recognized on a cash basis due to going-concern doubt, interest rates, the reduced lease income after the NHC sale, share count growth, a 32-person employee base, and a dividend payout ratio above 100% of GAAP earnings. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported Q1 2026 results, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and analyst consensus; medium for forward SHOP profitability, the Bickford situation, deployment pipeline, and capital-market conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NHI has a durable income model, an investment-grade balance sheet, and a 4.8% yield, but the FFO multiple is above its historical average and upside depends on SHOP execution, replacing the NHC lease income, and rate normalization. | Medium |
NHI AI stock forecast
The NHI AI stock forecast uses FFO, FAD, valuation multiples, portfolio occupancy, SHOP margins, deployment yields, financing costs, dividend coverage, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if SHOP same-store NOI turns positive, Bickford stabilizes, NHI deploys the roughly $560 million investment pipeline accretively, and the market applies a higher REIT multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if SHOP margins compress, tenant distress rises, rates climb, or the stock de-rates from its all-time high.
$88 to $95
More likely if NHI compounds FFO per share near 6% to 8% annually through accretive SHOP and sale-leaseback investments, same-store NOI recovers, the dividend stays covered, and the market applies a 16x to 17x FFO multiple. A return toward the $91.38 all-time high would require consistent execution on the SHOP transition.
$68 to $76
More likely if NHI tracks roughly flat to modest FFO per share growth, maintains the dividend, and trades within a 14x to 15x FFO range while rates stay in the current range. The current $76.11 price sits at the top of this range.
$50 to $60
More likely if SHOP operating losses persist, the Bickford tenant deteriorates further, dividend coverage weakens, rates rise, or the market applies an 11x to 12x FFO multiple. A multi-year bear case would require structural impairment to the portfolio.
NHI AI technical analysis
NHI AI technical analysis starts from the $76.11 quote on August 3, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average at $75.21 but below the 200-day moving average at $78.83 after a partial recovery from the June 2026 low. RSI near 47 is neutral. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on August 10, 2026, rate decisions, and portfolio updates.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.11 | Latest verified quote used for this page, reported for August 3, 2026. |
| Near resistance | $78.83 to $80.00 | This zone covers the 200-day moving average and the round $80 level. A close above it would be the first constructive signal after the recent recovery. |
| Key resistance | $86.00 to $91.38 | This zone covers the all-time high area from February 2026. A full recovery would require a rally of roughly 13% to 20% from current levels. |
| Near support | $74.00 to $75.21 | This zone covers the 50-day moving average and recent swing support. Holding it keeps the short-term recovery intact. |
| Secondary support | $67.94 (52-week low) | This is the 52-week low from June 2026. A break below this level would open a test of lower support zones. |
| 50-day moving average | $75.21 | NHI is above the 50-day MA, indicating a short-term recovery bias. Losing it would signal renewed weakness. |
| 200-day moving average | $78.83 | NHI is below the 200-day MA, confirming a medium-term downtrend that has not yet reversed. Sustained trading above both MAs would be needed for a confirmed trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI neutral | RSI near 47 shows no extreme oversold or overbought condition. Momentum is awaiting a catalyst such as the August 10, 2026 earnings report. |
| Volume | Moderating | The 20-day average volume is about 378,868 shares. Volume was elevated during the decline from the all-time high, and a volume-supported break above $78.83 would be more credible than a low-volume drift. |
| Invalidation | Close below $67.94 or dividend pressure | A new 52-week low below $67.94 or any signal of dividend coverage pressure would weaken the base case significantly. |
NHI AI trading strategy
The NHI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on August 10, 2026, FFO guidance, portfolio occupancy, SHOP margins, dividend coverage, and interest rate expectations.
Track whether NHI can reclaim and hold the 200-day moving average at $78.83 with rising volume, then clear the $86 to $91.38 zone. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results show solid FFO, SHOP same-store NOI turns positive, and the company maintains its dividend.
Remain cautious if price loses the 50-day moving average at $75.21, if volume expands on down days, or if REITs broadly weaken on higher rate expectations.
Use the 4.84% dividend yield as a starting point for income analysis, but verify that FAD covers the dividend with room to spare. NHI guided 2026 Normalized FAD to $240.6 million to $243.7 million, which is the coverage metric to watch, not just the GAAP payout ratio.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. The payout ratio is above 100% of GAAP earnings, so a dividend cut or freeze would likely lead to material price decline regardless of yield.
Track FFO per share, Normalized FAD, payout ratio, portfolio occupancy, SHOP same-store NOI, investment volume, weighted average cap rates, leverage ratios, and the Bickford tenant situation.
A mix of lower FFO guidance, higher leverage, SHOP margin deterioration, Bickford distress, or a close below the 52-week low would override any chart-based entry signal.
Investment research summary
National Health Investors is paid to provide real estate capital to senior housing and healthcare operators. Tenants pay rent under long-term triple-net leases, or NHI shares in operating income through SHOP structures where it manages or co-invests in the properties. The company converts property cash flows into quarterly dividends and selective acquisitions.
The moat is built from 30+ years of relationships with healthcare operators, public-market capital access, underwriting data, and a shift toward private-pay senior housing. The moat can narrow if capital costs rise or if competing capital floods the senior housing space.
The thesis can fail if a major operator defaults, SHOP same-store occupancy or margins deteriorate, the Bickford tenant resolves badly, interest rates rise significantly, the dividend payout becomes unsustainable, the small employee base creates key-person risk, or investors pay an above-average FFO multiple for limited growth.
CEO D. Eric Mendelsohn leads a lean 32-person organization. The company completed a CFO transition in July 2026, added a new COO, and deployed $742.5 million of invested capital in Q1 2026 including the $106.9 million SHOP investment. The capital allocation test is whether the roughly $560 million investment pipeline replaces the income lost from the $560 million NHC disposition.
The long-term trend is supported by aging demographics and demand for private-pay senior housing. The near-term cycle depends on occupancy recovery from pre-COVID levels, operating margins, labor costs, and capital-market access. NHI also has growing exposure to the SHOP model, which carries more operating risk than pure triple-net leases.
At $76.11, NHI trades about 17% below its $91.38 all-time high with a 16.23x trailing FFO multiple and 4.84% dividend yield. The three-scenario range using FFO produces a bull case near $88 to $95, a base case near $68 to $76, and a bear case near $50 to $60. The margin of safety is limited because the FFO multiple is above the historical average even though the balance sheet is investment grade.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHI price | $76.11 quote on August 3, 2026 (previous close $76.65) | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.69 billion, verified as $76.11 x 48.47 million shares with a 0.03% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 48.47 million shares outstanding, up 6.72% year over year and 1.39% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $404.71 million (cross-validated at $401.46 million, 0.40% deviation), TTM net income $147.89 million, TTM EPS $3.10 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement, cross-validated with financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial results | FY2025 revenue $379.29 million, up 13.02% from $335.58 million; net income $141.98 million; EPS $3.02 | StockAnalysis.com overview and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $115.13 million revenue (up 28.9% YoY), $40.02 million net income to common ($0.82 diluted EPS, up 10.8%), NAREIT FFO $1.23 (up 7.9%), Normalized FAD $62.5 million (up 11.6%) | NHI Q1 2026 press release and StockAnalysis income statement, cross-validated at 0.00% deviation | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS and valuation data | 24.55x trailing P/E, 16.23x trailing P/FFO, 8.07x forward P/E (distorted by 2026 disposition gain), 9.21x P/S, 2.45x P/B, 1.78x PEG | StockAnalysis.com statistics, financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $3.68 annual dividend ($0.92 quarterly), 4.84% forward yield, 2.22% dividend growth, 118.69% payout ratio of GAAP earnings | StockAnalysis.com dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | $24.95 million cash, $1.27 billion total debt, net debt about $1.24 billion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 4.0x (target 3.5x to 4.5x), investment grade ratings from Moody's, S&P Global and Fitch | NHI Q1 2026 press release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week and all-time range | 52-week low $67.94, 52-week high $91.38, all-time high $91.38 (February 2026); +7.50% over the last 52 weeks | StockAnalysis.com statistics and price data | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $75.21, 200-day moving average $78.83, RSI 47.49, 20-day average volume 378,868 shares, beta 0.54 | StockAnalysis.com stock price statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 8 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $82.88, low $74, high $91. Recent actions include Wells Fargo Hold at $89, BofA Buy at $91, and Truist Buy at $81 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 full year guidance | NAREIT FFO per share $4.74 to $4.79, Normalized FFO $4.74 to $4.79, Normalized FAD $240.6 million to $243.7 million, assuming about $665 million of disposition proceeds | NHI Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO and leadership | CEO D. Eric Mendelsohn, CFO transition from John Spaid to Todd Siefert effective July 1, 2026, COO Chris Maingot appointed July 27, 2026, 32 employees, founded 1991 | StockAnalysis.com company profile and NHI press releases | August 4, 2026 |
| Strategic actions | Completed $560 million sale of 32 skilled nursing and three independent living facilities to NHC in July 2026; invested $106.9 million in seven Colorado SHOP properties in May 2026; deployed $742.5 million of Q1 2026 invested capital | NHI press releases via PR Newswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Operator-level financial data is not independently verified. The Bickford tenant is recognized on a cash basis due to going-concern doubt, so its lease income carries more uncertainty. FFO-based scenario ranges are estimates and technical indicator values can differ across sources and dates. | NHI investor relations and StockAnalysis disclosures | August 4, 2026 |
This NHI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, interest rates, portfolio occupancy, SHOP margins, tenant credit, capital deployment, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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