Mueller Water Products, Inc. research snapshot
MWA AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Mueller Water Products as a well-run water infrastructure compounder trading at a fair, not cheap, price. The stock traded at $25.77 on August 3, 2026 at 12:28 PM EDT, up 0.53 or 2.10% from the $25.24 close on July 31, within a day range near $25.62 to $25.96 after opening at $25.66, carrying a market capitalization near $4.03 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $25.77 times 156.47 million shares outstanding. Mueller set record fiscal Q2 2026 results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, with net sales up 5.5% to $384.4 million, gross margin up 250 basis points to 37.6%, adjusted EBITDA up 15% to a record $97.2 million at a 25.3% margin, and adjusted EPS up 17.6% to $0.40. Management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million at the midpoint to $360 million to $365 million while holding net sales growth guidance at 2.8% to 4.2%, and it cut the free cash flow expectation to above 70% of adjusted net income from 85% because of higher inventory and iron foundry capex. The balance sheet is strong, with $421 million of cash, $452 million of total debt, $450 million of 4% senior notes with no maturities until June 2029, and no ABL borrowings. The stock sits above its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages of roughly $25.40, $25.10, and $25.42 but below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages of about $26.51 and $26.29, with 14-day RSI near 54 to 56 and a weak 14-day ADX near 13, meaning the market is range-bound ahead of the fiscal Q3 2026 report scheduled for August 5, 2026. The page is informational only and is not investment advice or a guarantee of any return; forecast ranges are scenarios that can be wrong or become outdated.
Current price
$25.77 at the August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading, up 0.53 or 2.10% from the $25.24 July 31 close, after opening at $25.66
Market cap
$4.03 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Steady water infrastructure compounder at a fair, not cheap, price
Trend status
Short-term bounce above the 20-day and 50-day averages but still below the 100-day and 200-day trend lines
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mueller makes the valves, hydrants, water meters, leak detection, and pipe repair products that municipalities and the construction industry need, and it posted record fiscal Q2 2026 net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS with a 25.3% adjusted EBITDA margin on TTM revenue near $1.46 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from 165 plus years of brand trust with municipal utilities, potable water certifications, engineering specifications, an installed base of millions of valves and hydrants, switching costs from trained crews and stocked repair parts, and proprietary smart metering and leak detection technology. | Medium-high |
| Management | Paul McAndrew, President and CEO, and CFO Melissa Rasmussen are executing a record run with margin expansion, a raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook, a new brass foundry transition, and disciplined capital allocation, while navigating a leadership transition and a residential construction slowdown. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal Q2 2026 net sales rose 5.5% to a record $384.4 million, gross margin expanded 250 basis points to 37.6%, adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to a record $97.2 million, and adjusted EPS rose 17.6% to $0.40, with full year adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $360 million to $365 million. | High |
| Valuation | At about 19.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 17.0x forward PE, and 12.3x EV/EBITDA, the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history and the industrial group, with a 1.09% dividend yield and an 11-year dividend growth record. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MWA traded at $25.77 on August 3, 2026 at 12:28 PM EDT, above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages near $25.40, $25.10, and $25.42 but below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $26.51 and $26.29, with 14-day RSI near 54 to 56 and a weak 14-day ADX near 13, indicating a range-bound market. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the slowdown in new residential construction, tariffs and inflationary cost pressure, the reduced free cash flow outlook, lower service brass volumes, competitive pressure in water technology, and execution around the leadership transition. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because residential, tariff, and free cash flow assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
MWA AI stock forecast
The MWA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $25.77 August 3, 2026 reading, the fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.48, and the $31 average analyst target across 6 analysts. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $23, a base area near $30, and a bullish area near $36 before dividends over a 12 to 24 month horizon. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$34 to $38
More likely if specialty valve and smart water growth stay strong, foundry margins keep expanding, adjusted EBITDA reaches the raised $360 million to $365 million range with upside, and the market re-rates the stock toward 19x to 20x forward earnings on a reacceleration of water infrastructure spending.
$28 to $32
More likely if Mueller compounds adjusted EPS at a mid to high single digit rate, municipal repair and replacement demand stays resilient, the residential slowdown stays contained, and the stock holds near the 17x forward multiple around the $31 average analyst target.
$21 to $25
More likely if the residential construction slowdown deepens, tariff and cost pressure squeeze margins in the second half, specialty valve growth slows, free cash flow conversion stays weak, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 15x area implied by the Barclays $25 target.
MWA AI technical analysis
MWA AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $25.77 at 12:28 PM EDT on August 3, up 0.53 or 2.10% from the $25.24 July 31 close, above its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages near $25.40, $25.10, and $25.42 but below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $26.51 and $26.29, with 14-day RSI near 54.36 on Barchart and 56.11 on StockAnalysis.com and a weak 14-day ADX near 13.20, meaning the market is consolidating rather than trending. After sliding from above $27 in early July to a $25.24 close on July 31, the stock bounced into the August 3 session, with the 52-week high of $31.00 from February 2026 and the 52-week low of $22.74 from November 2025 framing the range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.77 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading, up 0.53 or 2.10% from the $25.24 July 31 close within a day range near $25.62 to $25.96 after opening at $25.66; the reported $4.03 billion market cap matches $25.77 times 156.47 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $25.40 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $25.40 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, showing short-term momentum improving after the July slide. |
| Near support | $25.10 to $25.40 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $25.10 and the 50-day near $25.42 as of August 3, 2026, a natural first pullback support cluster for the current bounce. |
| Key support | $24.00 to $25.00 | The June to July base area sits near $24 to $25, close to the Barclays price target of $25, and a loss of this zone would open the path toward the 52-week low. |
| Major support | $22.74 | The November 2025 low and 52-week low. A decisive close below this level would signal a continuation of the longer-term downtrend toward the low $20s. |
| Near resistance | $26.29 to $26.51 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $26.29 and the 100-day near $26.51 on August 3, 2026, forming the first overhead supply zone for the rebound. |
| Resistance | $27.00 to $28.00 | The prior consolidation zone above $27, where the stock traded in early July, caps the rebound until volume confirms a breakout. |
| 52-week high | $31.00 | The February 2026 high, which would need a clean break with rising volume to confirm a new uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54 to 56, ADX near 13 | 14-day RSI was near 54.36 on Barchart and 56.11 on StockAnalysis.com, neutral, while 14-day ADX near 13.20 confirmed a range-bound market rather than a strong trend. |
| Volume | About 1.07 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.07 million shares, matching StockAnalysis.com near 1,070,034 on August 3, 2026, with the 5-day average near 1.07 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 29.11% and 14-day ATR near $0.65, with beta of 1.03, so swings are moderate and position sizing should account for the August 5 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25.10 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $25.10 would weaken the short-term bounce; a close below the $24.00 to $25.00 base would target the $22.74 low. |
MWA AI trading strategy
The MWA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for MWA to reclaim and hold the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $26.3 to $26.5 and to build volume on a move toward the $27 to $28 zone and then the $31.00 high, confirming that the longer-term uptrend has resumed.
A daily close back below the 20-day moving average near $25.10 or a failed attempt at the $26.5 resistance should trigger a stop and review.
If MWA pulls back toward the $24.00 to $25.00 support zone without new earnings or tariff damage, compare the price reaction with the fiscal Q3 2026 results on August 5, margin guidance, and specialty valve order news before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a deep residential slowdown or a free cash flow miss can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track municipal repair and replacement demand, specialty valve orders and backlog, new residential construction data, tariff and price realization, gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, free cash flow conversion relative to the above 70% expectation, iron foundry capex, dividend growth, and M&A activity.
Reduce confidence if adjusted EBITDA growth depends mainly on price rather than volume and margin, or if free cash flow conversion stays below guidance.
Investment research summary
Mueller sells the valves, hydrants, meters, and pipe repair products that water utilities and the construction industry need to build, maintain, and repair water systems, and it earns a high-margin stream by combining branded hardware with smart metering, leak detection, and pressure monitoring.
The moat is built on 165 plus years of brand trust with municipal water utilities, potable water certifications, engineering specifications, an installed base of millions of valves and hydrants, switching costs from trained crews and stocked repair parts, and proprietary technology in smart metering and leak detection.
The thesis fails if new residential construction keeps falling, tariffs and input inflation erode margins after tariff-related price increases are lapped, specialty valve growth slows, free cash flow conversion stays near 70% or lower, the i2O exit and leadership transition disrupt execution, or larger competitors take share with integrated smart water platforms.
Paul McAndrew, President and CEO, and CFO Melissa Rasmussen are running a record phase with margin expansion, a raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook, a new brass foundry transition, an exit from the non-North America i2O pressure monitoring business, and disciplined capital allocation with a clean balance sheet.
Water infrastructure is a long-term trend driven by aging pipes, the EPA Lead and Copper Rule, PFAS mandates, climate resilience, and federal funding such as the IIJA water programs, while smart water adoption provides a multi-year growth runway that is partly offset by a cyclical slowdown in new residential construction.
At about $25.77, the stock trades at roughly 19.4x trailing EPS, 17.0x forward EPS, and 12.3x EV/EBITDA with a 1.09% dividend yield. The base scenario near $30 to $31 aligns with the $31 average analyst target, so the margin of safety is modest rather than deep.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MWA price | $25.77 at the August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading, up 0.53 or 2.10% from the $25.24 July 31 close, within a day range near $25.62 to $25.96, after opening at $25.66 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.03 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $25.77 x 156.47 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 results | Net sales up 5.5% to a record $384.4 million, gross profit up 12.9% to $144.5 million at a 37.6% margin up 250 bps, adjusted EBITDA up 15% to a record $97.2 million at a 25.3% margin up 210 bps, adjusted EPS up 17.6% to $0.40, and reported diluted EPS of $0.38 | Mueller Water Products Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 6, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 segment results | Water Flow Solutions net sales up 1% to $218.3 million with adjusted EBITDA margin up 440 bps to a record 33.2%, and Water Management Solutions net sales up 12.2% to $166.1 million with adjusted EBITDA margin down 20 bps to 24.4% | Mueller Water Products Q2 2026 earnings call | May 6, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Consolidated net sales growth of 2.8% to 4.2%, adjusted EBITDA raised by $5 million at the midpoint to $360 million to $365 million, adjusted EBITDA margin above 24.5% up 170 bps, capital expenditures of $60 million to $65 million, and free cash flow now expected to exceed 70% of adjusted net income, down from 85% | Mueller Water Products Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 6, 2026 |
| First-half fiscal 2026 cash flow and capex | Free cash flow of $16.5 million, down $30.8 million, at 15% of adjusted net income, with $31.9 million of capital expenditures versus $21.1 million a year earlier, driven by higher inventory and iron foundry investments | Mueller Water Products Q2 2026 earnings call | May 6, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $421 million of cash and cash equivalents, $452 million of total debt, $450 million of senior notes at 4% with no maturities until June 2029, no ABL borrowings, and $585 million of total liquidity including $164 million of ABL availability as of March 31, 2026 | Mueller Water Products Q2 2026 earnings call and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | May 6, 2026 |
| SEC EDGAR XBRL cross-check | Long-term debt of $451 million and total assets of $1,884.8 million as of March 31, 2026, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed May 6, 2026, with cash and cash equivalents of $421 million and 156,471,079 shares outstanding as of May 1, 2026 | SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q1 2026 results | Net sales up 4.6% to $318.2 million, reported diluted EPS of $0.27, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.29, with full year guidance raised for net sales and adjusted EBITDA | Mueller Water Products Q1 2026 earnings release | February 5, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $1.43 billion, up 8.75% from $1.31 billion, with net income of $191.7 million, up 65.4% | StockAnalysis.com financials and Mueller FY2025 reporting | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $1.46 billion, up 6.6%, and TTM net income of $207.4 million, up 44.1%, with TTM EPS of $1.32 on the quote and statistics pages and $1.31 on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $199.3 million, capital expenditures of $58.1 million, and free cash flow of $141.2 million over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com statistics cash flow section | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 19.44x trailing GAAP EPS, 2.75x sales, 28.52x free cash flow, 3.69x book value, and a 1.09% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 17.03x forward PE, EV/EBITDA 12.32, EV/FCF 28.75, and EV/Sales 2.77 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial efficiency and solvency | ROE of 21.33%, ROIC of 20.89%, Altman Z-Score of 4.73, Piotroski F-Score of 5, current ratio of 4.57, quick ratio of 2.70, debt-to-equity of 0.42, and interest coverage of 14.31 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $31.00 across 6 analysts, low $25 and high $35, median $31.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell out of 6 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Oppenheimer Buy $32 on July 21, Barclays Sell initiated $25 on June 30, Baird Hold $33 to $34 on May 7, RBC Capital Hold $30 to $31 on May 7, and Goldman Sachs Hold $28 on May 6 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.29 million shares short, 3.38% of shares outstanding, 3.99 days to cover, up from 4.15 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.070 per share declared July 28, 2026, annual dividend of $0.28 with a 1.09% yield, ex-dividend date August 10, 2026, with 11 consecutive years of dividend growth and a 21.2% payout ratio | Mueller Water Products dividend announcement and StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $1.48B with adjusted EPS $1.48, FY2027 revenue $1.55B with adjusted EPS $1.57, with 2026 adjusted EPS estimate range $1.47 to $1.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $22.74 to $31.00, up 6.91% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.03 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $25.40, 20-day SMA near $25.10, 50-day SMA near $25.42, 100-day SMA near $26.51, 200-day SMA near $26.29, 14-day RSI near 54.36 on Barchart and 56.11 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 13.20, 14-day historical volatility near 29.11% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Fiscal Q3 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026 after U.S. markets close, with the quarterly dividend of $0.070 per share declared July 28, 2026 | Mueller Water Products announcement and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
This MWA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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