Murphy USA Inc. research snapshot
MUSA AI stock analysis currently reads Murphy USA as a high-volume, low-cost retail fuel and convenience operator with about 1,803 stores, a durable Walmart-adjacent site advantage, and a capital-return culture built on heavy buybacks. FY2025 revenue was $19.38 billion with net income of $470.6 million, and Q1 2026 delivered a record $7.28 diluted EPS on all-in fuel contribution of 35.0 cents per gallon, beating the consensus estimate by $1.91. At the July 31, 2026 close of $608.99, MUSA trades near 21x trailing EPS, up roughly 51% year to date, which prices in continued fuel-margin strength and shrinking share count while leaving limited room for error. The MUSA AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$608.99
Market cap
$11.25 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-volume low-cost fuel retailer with a record Q1 2026 and strong fuel margins, but valuation has expanded after a 50% year-to-date rally
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, near the all-time closing high of $622.78 set July 20, 2026, with elevated short interest as a caution flag
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Murphy USA sells high-volume fuel and convenience merchandise through a low-cost, high-throughput network, with QuickChek adding denser food and beverage formats. Q1 2026 net income of $136.3 million and diluted EPS of $7.28 show strong earnings power in a constructive fuel-margin environment. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Walmart-adjacent real estate density, low-price fuel positioning, scale purchasing, and operating cost discipline, but fuel retail remains competitive and switchable and the Walmart relationship is a material concentration. | Medium-high |
| Management | President and CEO Mindy West, who took over in early 2026 after a long internal career, leads a capital-allocation culture centered on organic new-store growth, dividends, and buybacks. Q1 2026 repurchases totaled about $70.9 million at an average price of $419.87. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income of $470.6 million was down from $503 million in 2024, but trailing twelve-month net income to March 31, 2026 reached about $554 million, up 13.07% year over year, after a record Q1 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $608.99, MUSA trades near 21.05x TTM EPS of $28.93, 18.14x book value of $33.58, and about 29.9x FY2025 free cash flow per share, with a dividend yield near 0.41%. The consensus price target of $596.44 sits slightly below the current price. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits near the all-time closing high of $622.78 set on July 20, 2026 and the 52-week high of $636.04, above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a roughly 51% year-to-date advance from $403.44. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are fuel-margin compression, rising short interest at 5.04% of float, nicotine legislation, EV and efficiency-driven gallon declines, Walmart relationship changes, leverage, wage inflation, and weather disruption. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company IR, Macrotrends, and MarketBeat align on revenue, earnings, shares, market-cap math, and analyst consensus. Forward scenario math carries more uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MUSA is a high-quality fuel retail operator with demonstrated earnings power, but the stock has re-rated sharply and now trades near analyst targets, so certainty is medium rather than high. | Medium |
MUSA AI stock forecast
The MUSA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $608.99 price reference, TTM diluted EPS of $28.93, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $405, a base area near $586, and a bullish area near $802 before dividends, broadly in line with the analyst consensus price target of $596.44. The Q2 2026 earnings print on August 5, 2026 is the next key input.
$770 to $830
More likely if all-in fuel margins stay at or above the mid-30s cents-per-gallon range, merchandise contribution keeps growing with new stores, buybacks continue to shrink the share count, and the market holds a low-20s earnings multiple on growing EPS.
$560 to $610
More likely if fuel contribution normalizes toward the low-30s cents-per-gallon area, store growth of 45 to 55 units lands on plan, and the stock trades near a high-teens to low-20s multiple with mid-single-digit EPS growth.
$380 to $430
More likely if fuel margins compress, same-store gallons keep declining, nicotine or EV headwinds hit traffic, leverage constrains returns of capital, or investors re-rate MUSA toward a mid-teens multiple as EPS mean reverts.
MUSA AI technical analysis
MUSA AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $608.99 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day and 200-day references after a roughly 51% year-to-date advance, yet it sits just below the all-time closing high of $622.78 from July 20, 2026 and the 52-week high near $636. The key technical question is whether buyers can clear the $623 to $636 resistance zone or whether a failure pulls the stock back toward support before the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $608.99 | July 31, 2026 closing quote, used for valuation and market-cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $590 to $605 | Near the July 31 trading range low of $602.80. A hold here keeps the recent advance intact and provides a cleaner entry reference before the August 5 earnings print. |
| Deeper support | $540 to $560 | The middle of the 50-day range of $505.77 to $623.30 and a round-number demand zone if fuel-margin headlines cause a sharper pullback. |
| Major support | $470 to $500 | Near the 52-week average price of $453.24 and the post-2025 recovery base, where a valuation reset would find heavier buying interest. |
| Near resistance | $623 to $636 | The all-time closing high of $622.78 from July 20, 2026 and the 52-week high of $636.04 define the key supply zone. |
| Higher resistance | $680 to $710 | Upside extension zone aligned with the highest analyst price targets, including $710 from Capital One and $680 from KeyCorp. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day and 200-day | The price holds above both averages. The 50-day range spans $505.77 to $623.30, so the trend stays positive while price remains above that band. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended after the rally | Momentum favors trend followers after the 2026 low, but a roughly 51% year-to-date move leaves the stock exposed to fast reversals on fuel-margin or earnings headlines. |
| Volume | Watch volume near $623 to $636 | Average volume is near 251,000 shares. A heavy-volume close above $636 would confirm a breakout, while a low-volume pullback toward support is less concerning. |
| Volatility | Low beta with earnings-gap risk | Beta is near 0.30, but Q2 2026 results due August 5, 2026, refined-product volatility, RIN contribution, and guidance changes can create price gaps despite the defensive retail model. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $505 | A durable break below the 50-day range low would weaken the recovery setup and shift focus toward the $470 to $500 major support and multiple compression. |
MUSA AI trading strategy
The MUSA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines fuel-margin data, store growth, capital returns, valuation discipline, short-interest signals, and technical invalidation levels, with the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026 as the near-term catalyst.
Watch for MUSA to hold above the $590 to $605 zone while all-in fuel contribution stays in the mid-30s cents-per-gallon range, merchandise contribution grows with new-store openings, and EPS estimates remain intact.
A failed hold below $590, a sharp drop in all-in cents-per-gallon guidance, or a weak Q2 2026 print should reduce setup confidence.
If MUSA pulls back toward $540 to $560 while the low-cost high-volume model and buyback capacity remain intact, compare the price reset with updated fuel-margin assumptions, peer multiples, and short-interest levels before acting.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback comes with structural gallon decline, nicotine regulation shocks, rising short interest, or balance-sheet stress.
Track retail gallons, retail and all-in fuel cents-per-gallon, merchandise contribution, store OPEX APSM, new-to-industry openings, cash, net debt, free cash flow, dividend growth, share-repurchase pace, and short interest. The August 5, 2026 earnings release is the next scheduled data point.
Position sizing should reflect that MUSA earnings can swing with fuel contribution even when merchandise trends are stable, and that the stock now trades near the consensus price target.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Murphy USA because it offers low-priced fuel and quick convenience stops at high-traffic sites, often near Walmart, with merchandise and food formats that raise basket economics. The business improves when gallons, fuel cents-per-gallon, inside margins, and new-store productivity grow together, as Q1 2026 demonstrated.
The moat is local site density next to major retail anchors, low-price fuel positioning, scale fuel supply, operating cost control, and a growing store footprint including QuickChek. It is meaningful but not unbreakable because drivers can switch fuel stops quickly, EV adoption can reduce gallon demand over time, and the Walmart relationship is a concentration.
The thesis fails if fuel margins normalize faster than expected, same-store gallons keep falling, nicotine rules hit merchandise profit, the Walmart relationship weakens, leverage rises further into a downturn, or a mid-cycle multiple contracts with lower EPS. Rising short interest at 5.04% of float signals that some investors already see those risks.
Management has allocated capital toward organic new-to-industry growth, raze-and-rebuilds, dividends, and aggressive buybacks that have retired a large share of the float since the 2013 spin-off, with $221.4 million left under the 2023 authorization and $2.0 billion of 2025 authorization capacity. The near-term test is whether new CEO Mindy West keeps the low-cost model and capital-return discipline through fuel-margin cycles.
Convenience fuel retail benefits from trip frequency, value-seeking consumers, and industry consolidation. Long-term risks include EV adoption, stricter fuel-economy standards, nicotine regulation, payment fees, wage inflation, and pressure on lower-income discretionary spend.
Around 21x TTM EPS, MUSA is not as expensive as premium convenience compounders, but the stock has risen roughly 51% year to date, buybacks have raised leverage and reduced book equity, and the consensus price target of $596.44 sits below the current price. A clearer margin of safety would require either a lower entry multiple or more evidence that elevated margins can persist.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUSA quote reference | $608.99 close on July 31, 2026; extended trading at $607.88 | MarketBeat market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.25 billion reported market cap, verified against $608.99 x 18,470,685 shares with 0.01% variance | MarketBeat market data and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 18.47 million shares outstanding (18,470,685 common shares at March 31, 2026) | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 and trailing revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue $19.384 billion and net income $470.6 million; trailing twelve months to March 31, 2026 revenue $19.678 billion and net income about $554 million | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM diluted EPS | FY2025 diluted EPS $24.10; TTM diluted EPS $28.93 (MarketBeat) or $28.75 (Macrotrends) after Q1 2026 strength | Macrotrends EPS series and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Net income $136.3 million, diluted EPS $7.28 (beat consensus of $5.37), Adjusted EBITDA $277.9 million, total fuel contribution 35.0 cpg, merchandise contribution $210.2 million, 1,803 stores | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $118.6 million cash and $2,137.3 million long-term debt including finance leases as of March 31, 2026 | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Q1 2026 free cash flow about $221.9 million; FY2025 free cash flow about $376.7 million, down from $391.5 million in 2024 | Macrotrends MUSA free cash flow series | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 21.05x trailing PE on TTM EPS of $28.93, 18.14x price-to-book on book value near $33.58, about 29.9x price-to-FY2025 free cash flow per share of about $20.39, and about 0.41% dividend yield on $2.52 annualized dividend | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Moderate Buy consensus from 11 analysts (6 buy, 5 hold), average price target $596.44, high $710, low $450, about -2.1% downside from the July 31, 2026 close | MarketBeat analyst forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation check | Bull case $802, base case $586, bear case $405 using TTM EPS $28.93, 3-year growth of 8%/4%/0%, and scenario PE multiples of 22/18/14 | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital return and positioning context | Q1 2026 buybacks about $70.9 million for about 169,000 shares at an average price of $419.87; $221.4 million remaining under the 2023 authorization and $2.0 billion under the 2025 authorization; quarterly dividend $0.63 or $2.52 annualized; short interest 5.04% of float, up 6.47% month over month | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
This MUSA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, current assumptions, and valuation math as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, or market multiples change.
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