Murphy USA Inc. research snapshot
MUSA AI stock analysis currently reads Murphy USA as a high-volume, low-cost retail fuel and convenience operator with about 1,803 stores, a durable Walmart-adjacent site advantage, and a capital-return culture built on heavy buybacks. FY2025 revenue was $19.38 billion with net income of $470.6 million, while TTM earnings improved after a strong Q1 2026. At a July 10, 2026 price reference near $590.99, MUSA trades around 20.5x TTM EPS, more moderate than premium convenience peers but still exposed to fuel margins, nicotine regulation, EV adoption, and leverage. The MUSA AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$590.99
Market cap
$10.92 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-volume low-cost fuel retailer with strong capital returns and fuel-margin cyclicality
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a rebound from 2025 lows, still below the mid-2026 peak
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Murphy USA sells high-volume fuel and convenience merchandise through a low-cost, high-throughput network, with QuickChek adding denser food and beverage formats. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Walmart-adjacent real estate density, low-price fuel positioning, scale purchasing, and operating cost discipline, but fuel retail remains competitive and switchable. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mindy West took over on January 1, 2026 after a long internal career. Capital allocation remains centered on organic store growth, dividends, and multi-billion-dollar buyback authorizations. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income of $470.6 million was down from $502.5 million in 2024, but Q1 2026 net income jumped to $136.3 million on stronger all-in fuel contribution of 35.0 cpg. | High |
| Valuation | At $590.99, MUSA trades near 20.5x TTM EPS of $28.77 and about 29x FY2025 free cash flow per share, a mid-teens to low-20s earnings multiple that prices continued execution without full recession cushion. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits above the 50-day near $559 and the 200-day near $484 after recovering from the 2025 drawdown, with resistance still near the $620 to $636 peak zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are fuel-margin compression, nicotine legislation, EV and efficiency-driven gallon declines, Walmart relationship changes, leverage, wage inflation, and weather disruption. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company IR, Macrotrends, and market data align on revenue, earnings, shares, and market-cap math. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MUSA is a high-quality fuel retail operator, but earnings power and valuation still depend on fuel contribution durability and capital structure after large buybacks. | Medium |
MUSA AI stock forecast
The MUSA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $590.99 price reference, TTM diluted EPS of $28.77, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $403, a base area near $582, and a bullish area near $797 before dividends.
$760 to $820
More likely if all-in fuel margins stay constructive, merchandise contribution grows with new stores, buybacks continue to shrink the share count, and the market holds a low-20s earnings multiple on mid-single-digit EPS growth.
$550 to $600
More likely if fuel contribution normalizes near the low-30 cpg area, store growth of 45 to 55 units lands on plan, and the stock trades near a high-teens earnings multiple with mid-single-digit EPS growth.
$380 to $430
More likely if fuel margins compress, same-store gallons keep declining, nicotine or EV headwinds hit traffic, leverage constrains returns of capital, or investors re-rate MUSA toward a mid-teens multiple.
MUSA AI technical analysis
MUSA AI technical analysis is constructive but not fully extended as of the July 10, 2026 cutoff. The stock was near $590.99, above its 50-day and 200-day references after a rebound from 2025 lows, yet still below the June 2026 peak near $623 and the 52-week high near $636. The key technical question is whether buyers defend the $555 to $560 zone or whether a break resets the trend toward the 200-day area near $480 to $490.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $590.99 | July 10, 2026 quote reference used for valuation and market-cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $555 to $560 | Approximate 50-day moving-average zone near $558.79. A controlled pullback that holds this area would keep the intermediate uptrend intact. |
| Deeper support | $480 to $490 | Approximate 200-day trend reference near $483.91 and a larger valuation reset zone if fuel margins disappoint. |
| Near resistance | $620 to $636 | Recent peak and 52-week high supply zone after the mid-2026 rally. |
| Higher resistance | $700 to $730 | Upside extension zone if TTM EPS stays elevated and the stock reclaims a higher earnings multiple with continued buybacks. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day (~$559) and 200-day (~$484) | The technical profile remains positive while MUSA holds above the 50-day and the 200-day trend stays well below spot price. |
| Momentum | Positive after recovery, not extreme | Momentum favors trend followers after the 2025 low, but fuel-margin headlines can reverse short-term RSI quickly. |
| Volume | Watch volume on pullbacks | A low-volume pullback above the 50-day is less concerning than a heavy-volume break below $555. |
| Volatility | Moderate beta with fuel-margin gap risk | Earnings prints, refined-product volatility, RIN contribution, and guidance changes can create price gaps despite the defensive retail model. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $480 | A durable break below the 200-day zone would weaken the recovery setup and shift focus toward earnings and multiple compression. |
MUSA AI trading strategy
The MUSA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines fuel-margin data, store growth, capital returns, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for MUSA to hold above the $555 to $560 zone while total fuel contribution, merchandise contribution, new-store openings, and EPS estimates remain constructive.
A failed hold below $555 or a sharp drop in all-in cents-per-gallon guidance should reduce setup confidence.
If MUSA pulls back toward $480 to $490 while the low-cost high-volume model and buyback capacity remain intact, compare the price reset with updated fuel-margin assumptions and peer multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback comes with structural gallon decline, nicotine regulation shocks, or balance-sheet stress.
Track retail gallons, retail and all-in fuel cpg, merchandise contribution, store OPEX APSM, NTI openings, cash, net debt, free cash flow, dividend growth, and share-repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that MUSA earnings can swing with fuel contribution even when merchandise trends are stable.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Murphy USA because it offers low-priced fuel and quick convenience stops at high-traffic sites, often near Walmart, with merchandise and food formats that raise basket economics. The business improves when gallons, fuel cents-per-gallon, inside margins, and new-store productivity grow together.
The moat is local site density next to major retail anchors, low-price fuel positioning, scale fuel supply, operating cost control, and a growing store footprint including QuickChek. It is meaningful but not unbreakable because drivers can switch fuel stops quickly and EV adoption can reduce gallon demand over time.
The thesis fails if fuel margins normalize faster than expected, same-store gallons keep falling, nicotine rules hit merchandise profit, the Walmart relationship weakens, leverage rises further into a downturn, or a mid-cycle multiple contracts with weaker EPS.
Management has allocated capital toward organic NTI growth, raze-and-rebuilds, dividends, and aggressive buybacks that have retired a large share of the original float since the 2013 spin-off. The near-term test is whether the new CEO keeps the low-cost model and capital-return discipline through fuel-margin cycles.
Convenience fuel retail benefits from trip frequency, value-seeking consumers, and industry consolidation. Long-term risks include EV adoption, stricter fuel-economy standards, nicotine regulation, payment fees, wage inflation, and pressure on lower-income discretionary spend.
Around 20.5x TTM EPS, MUSA is not as expensive as premium convenience compounders, but buybacks have raised leverage and reduced book equity, so the stock still needs durable fuel contribution and FCF. A clearer margin of safety would require either lower entry multiples or more evidence that elevated margins can persist.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUSA quote reference | $590.99 on July 10, 2026 | MarketBeat market data | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.92 billion reported market cap, verified against $590.99 x 18.47 million shares with 0.04% variance | MarketBeat market data and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 18.47 million shares outstanding (18,470,685 common shares at March 31, 2026) | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release and Yahoo key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $19.384 billion revenue and $470.6 million net income, cross-checked with Macrotrends net income near $0.471 billion | Murphy USA FY2025 results release and Macrotrends | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM diluted EPS | FY2025 diluted EPS $24.10; TTM diluted EPS about $28.77 after Q1 2026 strength | Murphy USA FY2025 results and Yahoo key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Net income $136.3 million, diluted EPS $7.28, Adjusted EBITDA $277.9 million, total fuel contribution 35.0 cpg, merchandise contribution $210.2 million, 1,803 stores | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $118.6 million cash and $2,137.3 million long-term debt including finance leases as of March 31, 2026 | Murphy USA Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | FY2025 free cash flow about $0.377 billion; Q1 2026 free cash flow about $221.9 million | Macrotrends MUSA free cash flow series | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 20.54x trailing PE on TTM EPS, 16.57x price-to-book on equity book value near $35.66, about 28.97x price-to-FY2025 free cash flow per share, and about 0.43% dividend yield on $2.52 annualized dividend | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 10, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation check | Bull case $797, base case $582, bear case $403 using TTM EPS $28.77, 3-year growth of 8%/4%/0%, and scenario PE multiples of 22/18/14 | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 10, 2026 |
| Capital return context | FY2025 buybacks about $652 million; additional capacity under 2023 and 2025 authorizations; quarterly dividend $0.63 or $2.52 annualized | Murphy USA FY2025 and Q1 2026 results releases | July 10, 2026 |
This MUSA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, current assumptions, and valuation math as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, or market multiples change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
