Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. research snapshot
MSGE AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Madison Square Garden Entertainment as the owner and operator of iconic live entertainment venues, including Madison Square Garden arena, the Infosys Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and the Chicago Theatre, plus the Radio City Christmas Spectacular. The stock traded at $77.61 on August 3, 2026 at 2:21 PM EDT, up 0.35 or 0.45% from the $77.26 prior close, within a session range of $76.84 to $78.68 after opening at $77.41, giving a market capitalization near $3.67 billion, consistent with the $77.61 price times 47.31 million shares outstanding. Q3 FY2026 revenue, reported May 7, 2026, rose 2% to $246.3 million with adjusted operating income of $46 million, while the nine months ended March 31, 2026 produced revenue of $864.5 million, up 9.6%, net income of $76.2 million, and diluted EPS of $1.59. The record-setting 92nd Christmas Spectacular season generated roughly $195 million across 215 paid performances, and 230 shows are already on sale for the next holiday season, up from 215. Fiscal 2027 concert momentum includes the Harry Styles 30-night residency at The Garden, Bon Jovi for nine shows, and Phish for five shows. The stock sits above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $75.94, $74.85, $68.37, and $61.13 on Barchart, with 14-day RSI near 56. The MSGE AI stock forecast below is a scenario range, not a guaranteed target. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$77.61 at the August 3, 2026, 2:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.35 or 0.45% from the $77.26 prior close, within a session range of $76.84 to $78.68 after opening at $77.41
Market cap
$3.67 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Seasonal venue franchise trading at a premium valuation
Trend status
Price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, below the 52-week high of $82.79, with 14-day RSI near 56
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MSG Entertainment owns and operates the most recognizable live entertainment venues in the United States, including Madison Square Garden arena, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and the Chicago Theatre, and produces the Radio City Christmas Spectacular, with TTM revenue near $1.02 billion and TTM operating cash flow of $341 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from irreplaceable venue locations, long-standing brand equity, historic venue designations, exclusive booking relationships, the Rockettes franchise, the Christmas Spectacular, and residency deals such as the Harry Styles 30-night run at The Garden that competitors cannot easily reproduce. | High |
| Management | James L. Dolan serves as Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David J. Collins is EVP and CFO, and the Dolan family maintains control. Management has returned capital through buybacks, repurchasing roughly 623,000 shares for $25 million in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, and is building a residency-driven concert calendar, while navigating leverage, related-party arrangements, and the privacy controversy. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 2% to $246.3 million with adjusted operating income of $46 million, and the nine months ended March 31, 2026 delivered revenue of $864.5 million, up 9.6%, net income of $76.2 million, diluted EPS of $1.59, and adjusted operating income of $243.5 million, up 9%, with the December quarter driven by the Christmas Spectacular. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $77.61, MSGE trades at about 75.59 times trailing EPS of $1.02, 31.42 times forward EPS, 3.63 times sales, 76.10 times book value, 25.11 times EV to EBITDA, and 11.83 times trailing free cash flow, with an FCF yield near 8.5%. The premium earnings multiple reflects venue scarcity, the seasonal earnings pattern, and expectations for fiscal 2027 growth. | High for math |
| Technical trend | The stock has rallied more than 110% over the trailing 52 weeks from the $35.31 low and sits above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $77.40, $75.94, $74.85, $68.37, and $61.13, with 14-day RSI near 56 on Barchart and 57 on StockAnalysis.com, still below the $82.79 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include seasonal earnings concentration, event-calendar dependence, the premium P/E, leverage of about $578 million in long-term debt plus roughly $609 million in operating lease liabilities, related-party transactions with MSG Sports and Sphere, CEO key-person risk, consumer entertainment spending cyclicality, the Penn Station redevelopment outcome, and the facial recognition and leaked dossier privacy controversy. | High |
| AI confidence | Public data supports a clear description of the venues, the seasonal revenue pattern, the balance sheet, and valuation metrics, but an AI model cannot reliably predict event-booking pipelines, consumer entertainment spending shifts, holiday ticket demand, or the financial impact of the ongoing privacy controversy. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | The venues are high-quality irreplaceable assets with strong cash flow, but the premium P/E, seasonal profit concentration, leverage, and controversy risk require sustained adjusted earnings growth and event demand to justify the current multiple. | Medium-low |
MSGE AI stock forecast
The MSGE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $77.61 August 3, 2026 reading and the analyst price targets of $75 to $86. A three-scenario framework built on forward EPS of about $2.50 and trailing FCF per share of $6.61 points to a bearish area near $40 to $55, a base area near $65 to $85, and a bullish area near $90 to $115 over the coming year. These scenarios are sensitivity reference points, not guaranteed targets.
$90 to $115
More likely if fiscal 2027 concert bookings keep pacing ahead, the Harry Styles residency and other multi-night runs fill The Garden at strong per-caps, the 2026 Christmas Spectacular with 230 shows delivers revenue growth above the roughly $195 million 92nd season, adjusted operating income expands, the Penn Station redevelopment is resolved favorably, the privacy controversy does not produce material cost, and the market holds a double-digit free cash flow multiple.
$65 to $85
More likely if revenue stays near $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion, the seasonal profit pattern continues, the Christmas Spectacular grows modestly, the theaters pace back to their booking window, debt and lease costs stay manageable, related-party arrangements remain unchanged, and the stock trades in the range consistent with the $75 to $86 analyst target band.
$40 to $55
More likely if consumer entertainment spending softens or a recession reduces ticket demand, concert and theater bookings slow, the holiday season disappoints, debt or lease costs rise, the facial recognition or leaked dossier controversy produces fines or operational restrictions, the Penn Station outcome reduces the value of the venue, or the market re-rates the stock to a lower multiple that reflects the seasonal and leveraged earnings profile.
MSGE AI technical analysis
MSGE AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock in an uptrend that has more than doubled from the 52-week low. Barchart reported the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $77.40, $75.94, $74.85, $68.37, and $61.13 on August 3, 2026, with 14-day RSI near 56.12, 14-day ADX near 10.37, 14-day historic volatility near 25.89%, and 14-day ATR near $2.34, while StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day and 200-day averages near $74.86 and $61.13 and RSI near 57.14.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $77.61 | StockAnalysis.com real-time reading at the August 3, 2026, 2:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.35 or 0.45% from the $77.26 prior close within a session range of $76.84 to $78.68. |
| 5-day moving average | $77.40 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $77.40 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, indicating short-term momentum is positive but the move may be extended. |
| Near support | $74.85 to $75.94 | The 20-day moving average near $75.94 and the 50-day near $74.85 form the first support cluster, matching StockAnalysis.com at $74.86 for the 50-day. |
| Intermediate support | $68.37 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $68.37 on August 3, 2026, a natural pullback zone if the stock corrects from the recent highs. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.13 | The 200-day trend line near $61.13 is the long-term support that defines the uptrend, well below the current price and matching StockAnalysis.com. |
| 52-week low | $35.31 | The 52-week low reported by StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance. A move back toward this level would represent a severe trend reversal. |
| Near resistance | $80.00 to $82.79 | The 52-week high of $82.79 sits overhead, with $80 as the round-number level between the current price and the high. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56, ADX near 10 | 14-day RSI was near 56.12 on Barchart and 57.14 on StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026, neutral rather than overbought, while 14-day ADX near 10.37 on Barchart signals a developing rather than strongly trending move. |
| Volume | About 352,000 to 361,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 352,556 shares and Barchart near 361,203 on August 3, 2026, useful for judging whether a breakout above $82.79 carries conviction. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 25.89% | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 25.89% and 14-day ATR near $2.34 on August 3, 2026, with a beta near 0.55, so position sizing should still account for event-driven swings around earnings and news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $74.85 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $74.85 would weaken the short-term uptrend, and a close below the 200-day near $61.13 would turn the longer-term trend bearish. |
MSGE AI trading strategy
The MSGE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Price signals should be checked against concert and residency booking data, Christmas Spectacular ticket sales, quarterly earnings, debt levels, the Penn Station redevelopment, and the privacy controversy.
Watch for a close above the $80 to $82.79 resistance zone with volume above the 352,000 to 361,000-share average. Confirm the move with continued fiscal 2027 concert pacing, Harry Styles residency ticket demand, Christmas Spectacular sales data, and stable adjusted operating income.
Reduce confidence after a failed breakout near the 52-week high or a close below the 50-day moving average near $74.85. Treat $68.37 as an intermediate technical reference rather than a guaranteed stop price.
A pullback toward the $74.85 to $75.94 support cluster can be a watchlist condition if concert bookings, holiday ticket sales, and balance sheet liquidity remain stable. A deeper test of $68.37 requires more evidence that the decline is technical rather than driven by consumer spending weakness or controversy-related cost.
Do not treat venue scarcity or the MSG brand as a guaranteed price floor. A material legal or financial outcome from the privacy controversy, weaker ticket demand, or higher debt and lease costs can change the valuation quickly.
Track entertainment offerings revenue, food beverage and merchandise revenue, arena license fees, adjusted operating income, operating cash flow, free cash flow, total debt and operating lease obligations, Christmas Spectacular show count and ticket yield, concert and residency bookings, related-party expenses, and any legal or regulatory developments from the facial recognition and leaked dossier matters.
Override a bullish chart signal if revenue growth slows, adjusted operating income falls, FCF drops, debt or lease costs rise, related-party charges increase, or a material controversy-related financial penalty is announced.
Investment research summary
MSG Entertainment owns and operates premier live entertainment venues in the United States, anchored by Madison Square Garden arena, the Infosys Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and the Chicago Theatre, and produces the Radio City Christmas Spectacular. Customers pay for concert and event tickets, venue license fees, sponsorships, suites, food, beverage, and merchandise. The business is heavily seasonal, with the December quarter generating the largest share of annual profit through the Christmas Spectacular and the holiday event calendar.
The moat is based on irreplaceable venue locations in New York City and Chicago, historic venue designations, long-standing brand equity, exclusive booking relationships, the Rockettes and Christmas Spectacular franchise, and residency deals such as the Harry Styles 30-night run at The Garden. These assets are difficult to replicate, but their financial returns depend on the event calendar, consumer entertainment spending, and the artist and promoter relationships that fill the venues.
The thesis can fail through a sustained downturn in live event demand, consumer entertainment spending cuts, a recession, a weak holiday season, rising debt and lease costs, a large legal penalty or operational restriction from the facial recognition or leaked dossier controversy, increased related-party costs, an unfavorable Penn Station redevelopment outcome, venue disruption, or a CEO or key-person event at the Dolan family level. The key inversion is that iconic venues can coexist with seasonal earnings, leverage, and a premium stock multiple.
Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James L. Dolan also controls the company through the Dolan family, with David J. Collins as EVP and CFO. Management repurchased roughly 623,000 Class A shares for $25 million in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 with about $45 million remaining under the authorization, and is building a residency-driven concert calendar. The leadership structure is concentrated, and management must balance venue operations, seasonal event planning, debt management, related-party relationships, and the legal and reputational risk from the privacy controversy.
Live entertainment and event demand has remained strong, with concert touring and venue attendance at elevated levels and the vast majority of MSGE concerts selling out. The industry benefits from consumer preference for experiences over goods, and residencies give venues more recurring demand and forward visibility, but it faces risks from streaming competition for entertainment dollars, potential recession, rising performer and labor costs, and regulatory scrutiny of venue surveillance and data privacy practices.
At $77.61, MSGE has a market capitalization of $3.67 billion, trades at about 75.59 times trailing EPS of $1.02, 31.42 times forward EPS, 3.63 times TTM revenue near $1.02 billion, and 11.83 times trailing free cash flow of $312.73 million with an FCF yield near 8.5%. The premium earnings multiple may be supported by venue scarcity and the fiscal 2027 outlook, but the seasonal profit concentration, debt and lease leverage, and the privacy controversy mean the current reported earnings do not provide a conventional margin of safety unless adjusted earnings grow into the multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSGE price and volume | $77.61 at the August 3, 2026, 2:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.35 or 0.45% from the $77.26 prior close, within a session range of $76.84 to $78.68, after opening at $77.41; Google Finance showed $77.72 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.67 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with the $77.61 August 3 price times 47.31 million shares outstanding; Google Finance reported $3.68 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 47.31 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis.com, with the current share class listed near 40.44 million on Google Finance, down 0.71% year over year and up 0.61% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E and EPS | Trailing P/E of 75.59 on EPS of $1.02, forward P/E of 31.42 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/S 3.63, PB 76.10, P/FCF 11.83, P/OCF 10.85, PEG 0.63, EV/EBITDA 25.11, EV/FCF 14.59, EV/Sales 4.48, FCF yield 8.45% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta and 52-week range | Beta of 0.55, 52-week range $35.31 to $82.79, 52-week price change of +111.63% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue near $1.02 billion, up 4.51%; gross profit $454.79 million; operating income $124.42 million; net income $48.99 million; EPS $1.02; EBITDA $181.70 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $341.04 million, capital expenditures of negative $28.31 million, free cash flow of $312.73 million, and free cash flow per share of $6.61 over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Revenue of $246.3 million, up 2% from $242.5 million; adjusted operating income of $46 million, down $12 million; operating income of $16.1 million; net income of $5.1 million; diluted EPS of $0.11 | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 results | Revenue of $864.5 million, up 9.6% from $788.6 million; net income of $76.2 million; diluted EPS of $1.59; adjusted operating income of $243.5 million, up 9% | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue by segment (TTM) | Entertainment offerings $776.17 million, food beverage and merchandise $158.64 million, arena license fees and other leasing $83.78 million | StockAnalysis.com financials KPIs | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $323.653 million as of March 31, 2026 per the 10-Q, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL; long-term debt of $547.450 million non-current plus $30.469 million current, about $578 million total, with management citing a $587 million debt balance on the earnings call | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Operating leases and net cash | Operating lease liabilities of $44.336 million current and $564.936 million non-current as of March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis.com reports total debt including operating leases near $1.19 billion and net cash of negative $864.10 million | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Equity and margins | Total equity of $48.005 million as of March 31, 2026; TTM gross margin 44.65%, operating margin 12.22%, profit margin 4.81%, FCF margin 30.70%; ROE 170.32%, ROIC 9.25% | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Christmas Spectacular | The 92nd holiday season ended in January with a record-setting run generating roughly $195 million in total revenue across 215 paid performances, with 230 shows on sale for the 2026 season, up from 215 | Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 concert momentum | The Garden is pacing ahead for the September 2026 quarter and on track to set a record for concerts in a quarter, including the Harry Styles 30-night residency, with Bon Jovi for nine shows and Phish for five shows this summer, and Jo Koy for seven nights at Radio City in August | Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Buybacks | Approximately 623,000 Class A shares repurchased for $25 million in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, with about $45 million remaining under the current buyback authorization | Q3 FY2026 earnings call and Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $80.71 across 9 analysts, low $75 and high $86, median $80, with 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 5 Hold, and 0 Sell in the July 2026 recommendation trends | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | BTIG Buy $86 on July 30, JPMorgan Hold raised to $75 on July 21, Goldman Sachs downgraded to Neutral with $82 on July 8, Seaport downgraded to Neutral on June 29, Morgan Stanley Equal Weight $80 on June 23, Susquehanna Positive $80, Guggenheim Buy $76 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $77.40, 20-day SMA near $75.94, 50-day SMA near $74.85, 100-day SMA near $68.37, 200-day SMA near $61.13, 14-day RSI near 56.12 on Barchart and 57.14 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 10.37, 14-day historic volatility near 25.89%, 14-day ATR near $2.34 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.18 million shares short, 2.50% of shares outstanding and 3.33% of float, with 2.00 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $942.73 million, down 1.72% from $959.27 million, and net income of $37.43 million, down 74% from $144.3 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $1.03 billion, up 9.39%, with EPS of $1.12; FY2027 revenue estimate of $1.10 billion, up 6.77%, with EPS of $2.53, up 125% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Privacy and surveillance controversy | A leaked dossier reportedly exposed private data of digital rights activists who publicly criticized the company facial recognition technology, drawing attention from privacy advocates and surveillance critics; the company has used facial recognition at The Garden and faces legal and reputational risk from the matter | CNET report via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Penn Station redevelopment | MSG Entertainment entered a memorandum of understanding on the proposed Penn Station redevelopment after the National Railroad Passenger Corporation selected Penn Transformation Partners, a consortium led by Halmar International, with BTIG reiterating a Buy rating and $86 target after the related 8-K | TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Business description | Owner and operator of Madison Square Garden, the Infosys Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and the Chicago Theatre; producer of the Radio City Christmas Spectacular; one reportable segment; CEO James L. Dolan | StockAnalysis.com company profile and Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
This MSGE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on public data available as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if event demand, consumer entertainment spending, seasonal revenue patterns, debt and lease costs, privacy-related penalties, related-party arrangements, the Penn Station redevelopment, or market valuation change.
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