Modine Manufacturing Company research snapshot
MOD AI stock analysis currently reads Modine Manufacturing Company as a century-old thermal management manufacturer that has re-rated into an AI data center cooling growth story. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, MOD last closed at $245.91 on July 10, 2026, with market capitalization near $12.99 billion using about 52.82 million shares. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 23% to $3.181 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached a record $471 million, and adjusted EPS was $5.02, while GAAP EPS of $2.26 was held down by a $116.1 million non-cash pension termination charge. The AI score is constructive on business transformation and data center demand, but the MOD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because valuation already prices strong growth, capacity execution, and hyperscale cooling wins. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$245.91 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
About $12.99 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-growth thermal and data center cooling transformation story with premium valuation and execution risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact above the 200-day average, short-term pullback below the 50-day average after a large multi-year rerating
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Modine sells thermal management and climate products, with Climate Solutions now the growth engine through data center cooling, HVAC technologies, and heat transfer products, while Performance Technologies still serves vehicular and equipment markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from thermal engineering know-how, Airedale by Modine product breadth, manufacturing scale investments, long customer relationships in mission-critical cooling, and multi-year capacity agreements with large data center customers. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Neil Brinker has led a portfolio shift toward Climate Solutions, data center capacity expansion, bolt-on acquisitions, and a planned Performance Technologies spin-off and merger with Gentherm. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 net sales rose 23% to $3.181 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to $471 million, adjusted EPS rose 24% to $5.02, and free cash flow was $105.4 million after heavy growth investment. | High |
| Valuation | About 108.8x GAAP TTM EPS and about 49.0x adjusted FY2026 EPS, with enterprise value near 28x adjusted EBITDA. The multiple requires continued data center growth and successful portfolio simplification. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price remains well above the roughly $199 200-day moving average and far above the $88.48 52-week low, but trades below the roughly $269 50-day average after pulling back from the $323.25 52-week high area. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include AI and data center capex digestion, capacity ramp cost overruns, supply shortages, tariff and metal cost pressure, spin-off execution, weaker Performance Technologies markets, and valuation mean reversion. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and quote math. Lower for forward returns because high-growth industrial AI infrastructure stocks can reprice quickly when guidance, orders, or multiples change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because Modine is tied to a real AI infrastructure bottleneck in thermal management, but the current price already embeds strong multi-year growth expectations. | Medium |
MOD AI stock forecast
The MOD AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $245.91 July 10, 2026 close. The bullish case requires sustained data center cooling growth, successful capacity expansion, and durable premium multiples. The base case assumes solid growth but lower multiple support. The bearish case assumes slower hyperscale demand, execution issues, and valuation compression at the same time.
$400 to $560
More likely if Modine converts the $4 billion long-term capacity agreement into high-quality revenue, Data Centers growth stays near management targets, FY2027 adjusted EBITDA tracks the $650 to $680 million outlook, and the market keeps a premium multiple on adjusted earnings. financial_rigor.py bullish math using adjusted EPS $5.02, 30% growth, and 45x terminal PE produced about $496 after three years.
$180 to $280
More likely if revenue and adjusted earnings keep growing but investors apply a lower growth multiple after the multi-year rerating. financial_rigor.py base math using 18% growth and a 28x terminal PE produced about $231 after three years.
$70 to $140
More likely if data center order growth slows, capacity expansion dilutes margins longer than expected, the Performance Technologies separation creates friction, or the stock loses the 200-day support zone while the multiple compresses. financial_rigor.py bearish math using 5% growth and a 15x terminal PE produced about $87 after three years.
MOD AI technical analysis
MOD AI technical analysis starts from the $245.91 July 10, 2026 close. Public snapshots around the cutoff showed a 50-day moving average near $269, a 200-day moving average near $199, RSI in a neutral to mildly constructive band, a 52-week high of $323.25, and a 52-week low of $88.48. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, and moving averages should be confirmed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $245.91 close on July 10, 2026 | Closing quote used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $230 to $245 | Uses the recent July pullback low zone near $235 and the latest close. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Major support | $199 to $210 | Anchored by the roughly $199 200-day moving-average area. A decisive close below this zone would weaken the long-term trend setup. |
| Near resistance | $269 to $280 | Uses the 50-day moving-average area as the first reclaim level after the short-term pullback. |
| Major resistance | $306 to $323 | Uses the recent one-year high area and the reported $323.25 52-week high. A sustained close above this zone would restore strong upside momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | About $269 | Barchart and Chartmill snapshots around early July 2026 clustered near the high $260s to low $270s. Confirm against a live chart before trading. |
| 200-day moving average | About $199 | The price remained above this longer trend gauge at the cutoff, which keeps the multi-month uptrend framework constructive. |
| Momentum | Long-term strong, short-term pullback | The stock rose sharply over the prior year from the low-$90s area but is digesting gains below the 50-day average after peaking near the low $300s. |
| Volume | Elevated on large news and earnings days | Watch volume on any reclaim of the 50-day average or break of the 200-day average. Average daily volume has recently been above 1 million shares on several snapshots. |
| Volatility | High relative to mature industrials | The 52-week range from about $88 to $323 shows that MOD can reprice quickly around data center demand, capacity news, and valuation resets. |
| Invalidation | Close below about $199 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving-average zone would challenge the long-term trend-following setup used on this page. |
MOD AI trading strategy
The MOD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It connects chart levels with data center cooling demand, capacity expansion, adjusted EBITDA growth, free cash flow, portfolio separation progress, and valuation discipline.
Watch for MOD to reclaim and hold the $269 to $280 50-day moving-average area with improving volume while company updates confirm data center order strength, capacity utilization, Climate Solutions growth, and progress against the FY2027 sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day average, weaker hyperscale order commentary, or signs of AI infrastructure demand digestion should reduce trend-following confidence.
If MOD pulls back toward $199 to $210 without a break in data center fundamentals, compare the lower price with adjusted EPS growth, free cash flow, order intake, capacity progress, and the base scenario range.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the cause is order delays, margin dilution from capacity costs, spin-off friction, tariff shocks, or a durable slowdown in data center cooling demand.
Track Climate Solutions and Data Centers revenue, organic growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net debt, customer deposits, backlog or order intake comments, the $4 billion capacity agreement conversion, and milestones on the Performance Technologies spin-off with Gentherm.
Position sizing should reflect that MOD is a high-growth industrial AI infrastructure stock with elevated valuation sensitivity after a multi-year rerating.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Modine because mission-critical facilities, vehicles, and equipment need reliable heat transfer, cooling, heating, and ventilation products. The growth story is that data center operators pay for Airedale by Modine chillers, air handlers, liquid cooling support, and related thermal systems that keep high-density compute within temperature limits.
Modine has a developing but meaningful moat from thermal engineering know-how, product breadth across data center and HVAC applications, manufacturing capacity investments, customer qualification relationships, and multi-year supply agreements. The moat is not as deep as the largest diversified industrial peers, so execution and customer stickiness matter.
The thesis fails if AI data center capex slows, customers delay projects, capacity expansion stays margin-dilutive, suppliers cannot support volume, the Performance Technologies separation destroys value, competition compresses pricing, or investors stop paying a premium multiple for growth.
Neil Brinker has repositioned Modine toward Climate Solutions growth, data center capacity expansion, acquisitions, and portfolio simplification. The key management test is whether the company can scale data center production, protect margins, and complete the Gentherm Reverse Morris Trust separation without operational distraction.
The industry trend is favorable because AI training and inference raise rack density and heat loads, which expands demand for chillers, coolant distribution, liquid cooling, coils, controls, and service. Modine sits in the thermal layer of the AI infrastructure build-out rather than in the GPU or server layer.
At $245.91, MOD shows strong growth but limited traditional margin of safety. GAAP PE near 109x is distorted by the pension termination charge, while adjusted PE near 49x and EV to adjusted EBITDA near 28x still imply sustained high growth, successful capacity ramps, and continued premium-multiple support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOD quote reference | $245.91 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart and company stock info | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | About $12.99 billion calculated from $245.91 x 52.82 million shares; reported market cap snapshots clustered near $12.86 to $12.99 billion, with tool deviation about 1.0% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, Robinhood | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 52.82 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis MOD statistics and Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 net sales | $3,181.1 million, up 23% from $2,583.5 million in FY2025; Climate Solutions $2,062.3 million and Performance Technologies $1,131.8 million before eliminations | Modine FY2026 fourth quarter and full-year results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 earnings and adjusted EBITDA | Net earnings attributable to Modine $121.5 million, GAAP diluted EPS $2.26, adjusted EPS $5.02, adjusted EBITDA $471.0 million; GAAP results include a $116.1 million non-cash pension termination charge | Modine FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Cash $73.5 million, total debt $436.3 million, net debt $362.8 million as of March 31, 2026; operating cash flow $248.7 million and free cash flow $105.4 million for FY2026 | Modine FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2027 company outlook | Net sales growth 20% to 35% and adjusted EBITDA $650 to $680 million; outlook still includes Performance Technologies for all of FY2027 pending spin-off timing | Modine FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Data center capacity agreement | Long-term capacity agreement to supply more than $4 billion of Airedale by Modine data center cooling solutions to a strategic customer through 2029 | Modine May 26, 2026 press release | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | About 108.8x GAAP TTM EPS using $2.26, about 49.0x adjusted FY2026 EPS using $5.02, about 4.1x sales, and about 28x adjusted EBITDA on enterprise-value math | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical range and moving averages | 52-week range $88.48 to $323.25; 50-day moving average near $269 and 200-day moving average near $199 on early July 2026 public snapshots | Yahoo Finance chart, Barchart, and Chartmill technical pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Three-year adjusted-EPS scenarios near $496 bullish, $231 base, and $87 bearish using 30%/18%/5% growth and 45x/28x/15x terminal PE assumptions | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
This MOD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. Always verify current filings, market data, valuation, and risk factors before making financial decisions.
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