KLA Corporation research snapshot
KLAC AI stock analysis currently reads KLA Corporation as a high-quality semiconductor process control leader that just went through a violent valuation reset. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, KLAC last closed at $182.82 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $238.81 billion, and the stock had fallen about 39% from its June 30, 2026 peak near $301.71 after the Q4 fiscal 2026 report on July 28. The report beat guidance but investors wanted more, and the stock recorded its worst month since 1987. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$182.82 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $238.81 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality semiconductor process control leader, valuation reset in progress
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact above the 200-day average, short-term downtrend after a sharp July correction
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KLA sells critical process control, inspection, metrology, service, specialty semiconductor, and PCB inspection tools that help chipmakers improve yield. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed base service relationships, yield learning loops, customer qualification cycles, software and data integration, engineering depth, and process control market share. | High |
| Management | Rick Wallace has spent more than 30 years at KLA and management emphasized that AI-related process control, advanced packaging, services, and share gains support momentum into the second half of 2026 and through 2027. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $13.58 billion and net income was $4.83 billion. Q4 FY2026 revenue was $3.66 billion and Q1 FY2027 guidance points to about $4.0 billion, above the prior year. | High |
| Valuation | The financial_rigor.py check showed about 49.95x trailing EPS, 59.55x trailing free cash flow, and 17.77x trailing sales on July 31, 2026 data, with a forward P/E near 33.55x on consensus fiscal 2027 EPS. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock broke its June uptrend and fell to $170.19 on July 29 before a partial bounce to $182.82. It sits below the 50-day moving average near $221 and above the 200-day moving average near $163. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if wafer fab equipment spending slows, China restrictions tighten, customers delay installations, share gains fade, or the market keeps compressing premium multiples after the July repricing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed revenue, net income, EPS, cash, debt, guidance, valuation math, and analyst targets. Lower for future returns because semiconductor equipment cycles can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. KLA is a strong business on the critical path of AI infrastructure, but the July 2026 drawdown shows how quickly premium multiples can reset in this group. | Medium |
KLAC AI stock forecast
The KLAC AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $182.82 July 31 close. The bullish case requires sustained AI-related process control and advanced packaging demand plus multiple recovery; the base case assumes solid earnings growth with a more normal multiple; the bearish case assumes a wafer fab equipment slowdown and further valuation compression.
$250 to $320
More likely if foundry/logic, memory, advanced packaging, and services demand stay strong, KLA keeps gaining process control share, and the stock reclaims the $210 to $235 area on sustained volume. The financial_rigor.py bull scenario produced about $286 after three years using 25% EPS growth and a 40x terminal P/E, and Cantor Fitzgerald kept a $325 target in late July 2026.
$160 to $210
More likely if KLA compounds earnings at a high-teens rate while investors hold a multiple near current levels. The financial_rigor.py base scenario produced about $178 after three years using 15% EPS growth and a 32x terminal P/E, close to the Street low target of $165 and below the $230.85 consensus average.
$90 to $130
More likely if wafer fab equipment demand rolls over, China-related sales face tighter controls, customers pause capacity expansion, or the market assigns a cyclical multiple to peak earnings. The financial_rigor.py bear scenario produced about $93 after three years using 5% EPS growth and a 22x terminal P/E.
KLAC AI technical analysis
KLAC AI technical analysis starts from the $182.82 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average near $221.24, a 200-day moving average near $162.53, RSI near 38.24, beta near 1.41, and a 52-week price gain of 97.65%. The stock peaked near $307 intraday on June 30, 2026 and fell to $169.81 on July 29 after the Q4 report. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, and moving averages should be confirmed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $182.82 close on July 31, 2026 | Closing quote used for this page as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $169.81 to $170.19 | Uses the July 29 intraday low and close, the lowest levels since the June 2026 split-adjusted rally began. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| 200-day moving average | $162.53 | StockAnalysis listed this level on the August 2026 statistics page. A close below it would put the longer-term uptrend at risk. |
| Near resistance | $186.86 to $195.99 | Uses the July 30 high and the July 28 intraday high. A sustained move above this area would improve short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $221.24 | StockAnalysis listed this level on the August 2026 statistics page. The stock traded well below it after the July breakdown. |
| Major resistance | $233.31 to $247.49 | Uses the July 6 close and the July 9 intraday high from the pre-report consolidation zone. |
| Momentum | One-year uptrend broken, weak short-term tape | StockAnalysis showed a 97.65% 52-week price increase, while July closed as the worst month since 1987 with a 10.80% drop on July 29. |
| Volume | 13.49 million shares on July 31 | Volume on the July 28 to July 29 decline was heavy at 16.5 million and 20.2 million shares, so a sustained volume contraction is needed to confirm that selling pressure is fading. |
| Volatility | Elevated | A beta near 1.41 and a roughly 39% drawdown from the June 30 peak make position sizing more important than headline direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $162.53 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the longer-term setup and require a fresh review of the semiconductor cycle thesis. |
KLAC AI trading strategy
The KLAC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for KLAC to hold the $169.81 support area, then look for a recovery through $186.86 and $195.99 with volume that confirms demand rather than short covering. The longer-term trend only stays valid while the stock holds the 200-day moving average near $162.53.
A close below $162.53 or a failed breakout after strong company news should invalidate the setup.
If KLAC holds support without a business thesis break, compare the rebound with Q1 FY2027 guidance, advanced packaging commentary, services growth, gross margin, and China demand. The Q4 report beat but disappointed the market, so price action after the next earnings date matters.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of semiconductor cycle and multiple risk.
Track process control revenue, services growth, foundry/logic spending, memory recovery, advanced packaging demand, China restrictions, buybacks, and free cash flow conversion. Analyst targets for KLAC range from $165 to $325 with a $230.85 average as of late July 2026.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by AI headlines without matching revenue, order, margin, or cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
KLA helps chipmakers find, measure, and control defects so fabs can improve yield on increasingly complex semiconductor processes, including advanced packaging for AI chips.
The moat comes from process know-how, installed base service relationships, customer qualification cycles, software and data feedback loops, scale, and technology/IP. It is strong, but not immune to ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, or internal customer process shifts.
The stock can fail if AI infrastructure spending proves cyclical, foundry or memory customers delay capacity, China controls intensify, process control share gains slow, or investors stop paying premium multiples for equipment cyclicality. The July 2026 collapse showed this re-rating risk is real even when the business beats.
Rick Wallace has served KLA for more than 30 years. Management reported record revenue and profitability, issued Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance of about $4.0 billion, and maintained emphasis on AI-related process control, services, and capital returns.
AI, leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory, reticle complexity, advanced packaging, and yield pressure are long-term demand drivers. The risk is that wafer fab equipment remains cyclical even when the secular direction is favorable.
The July 2026 pullback reduced the valuation risk that existed in June, but the stock still trades near 50x trailing earnings and 33.55x consensus forward earnings. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound into the valuation or if the stock stays near the Street low target zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC price | $182.82 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis price history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $238.81 billion by StockAnalysis; financial_rigor.py market cap check showed 0.29% deviation using $182.82 and about 1.31 billion shares | StockAnalysis market cap and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.31 billion shares after the June 12, 2026 10-for-1 split; shares decreased 1.34% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Stock split | 10-for-1 split effected after market close on June 11, 2026, with split-adjusted trading from June 12, 2026 | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 revenue | $3,658 million, above the midpoint of guidance | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $13.58 billion, up 11.71% from $12.16 billion in FY2025; cross-validated across KLA release and StockAnalysis with no material deviation | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | About $4.83 billion, up 18.94% from FY2025; GAAP diluted EPS of $3.66 | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 guidance | Revenue of $4.0 billion plus or minus $200 million, non-GAAP gross margin of 62.5% plus or minus 1.0%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.16 plus or minus $0.10 | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue FY2026 | Semiconductor Process Control $12.245 billion, Specialty Semiconductor Process $584.06 million, PCB Display and Component Inspection $750.42 million | StockAnalysis financials (Fiscal.ai data) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $4.902 billion at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $5.887 billion at June 30, 2026; net debt about $985 million after cash and short-term investments | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 free cash flow | KLA reported $3.77 billion free cash flow for fiscal 2026, with operating cash flow of $4.14 billion | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Capital returns of $3.35 billion for fiscal 2026 | KLA Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 49.95x trailing EPS, 59.55x trailing free cash flow, and 17.77x trailing sales by financial_rigor.py on July 31, 2026 data; forward P/E near 33.55x | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst targets | Average price target $230.85, median $225, range $165 to $325, with 13 strong buy, 5 buy, and 11 hold ratings from 29 analysts as of late July 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $221.24, 200-day moving average $162.53, RSI 38.24, beta 1.41 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Management | Richard P. Wallace is President and CEO and has more than 30 years of tenure at KLA; Bren D. Higgins is Executive Vice President and CFO | KLA company profile and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
This KLAC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if KLA fundamentals, semiconductor demand, export controls, interest rates, or market valuation multiples change.
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