The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. research snapshot
MICC AI stock analysis reads The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. as the world largest pure-play ice cream company, spun out of Unilever and listed in Amsterdam, London, and New York. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified U.S. close was $18.61 from July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $11.39 billion, and the core question is whether a solid H1 2026 operating performance can convert into cleaner free cash flow and deleveraging. H1 2026 revenue was €4.691 billion with 4.7% organic sales growth, Adjusted EBIT rose to €716 million at a 15.3% margin, and free cash flow improved to €273 million, but net profit fell to €349 million and net debt rose to €3.264 billion, partly because of acquisition funding and standalone interest costs. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$18.61
Market cap
$11.39 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Global ice cream leader executing well, with a new Türkiye constraint
Trend status
Intermediate uptrend above rising moving averages, consolidating after a strong Q2 rally and still below the $19.93 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MICC manufactures and sells ice cream for at-home and away-from-home occasions across about 80 markets, led by Magnum, Ben & Jerry's, Cornetto, and the Heartbrand portfolio, plus fast-growing Yasso and Popsicle in North America. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global brands, freezer-cabinet distribution of nearly 3 million units, manufacturing scale, retailer relationships, and local assortment depth. It is real but still exposed to commodities, weather, and private-label trade-down. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Peter ter Kulve and CFO Abhijit Bhattacharya delivered 4.7% organic growth, a 50bps Adjusted EBIT margin gain, €90 million in productivity savings, and on-time first-half TSA exits in H1 2026. The test is deleveraging and margin repair after the integration spend. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | H1 2026 organic sales rose 4.7% with volume +2.5%, Adjusted EBIT rose to €716 million at a 15.3% margin, and free cash flow improved to €273 million from €138 million, but net profit fell 24.8% to €349 million and net debt rose to €3.264 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.61, MICC trades near 36x demerger-distorted trailing earnings and roughly 13x on a forward adjusted EPS reference near $1.40. Margin of safety depends on cash conversion and deleveraging, not the spinoff-year earnings base. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MICC closed above rising SMA(20) and SMA(50) levels near $18.42 and $17.58, with RSI near 57.8, after a 25% three-month rally. It is consolidating inside a $17.39 to $19.14 range and below the $19.93 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the new Turkish Competition Authority investigation with a 30% cabinet-capacity interim measure due by August 15, 2026, cocoa and dairy inflation, residual Unilever ownership and resale supply, net debt near €3.3 billion, FX and Türkiye hyperinflation, seasonality, and brand-governance issues around Ben & Jerry's. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for company-reported H1 2026 metrics, balance sheet, and market-cap math. Forward-return confidence is lower because spinoff comparability, short listing history, and an open antitrust case limit certainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MICC looks like a high-quality category leader improving its standalone operating record, but it is still a transition story that needs deleveraging, full TSA exit, and Türkiye resolution before it becomes a fully normalized compounder. | Medium-low |
MICC AI stock forecast
The MICC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $18.61 cutoff price and a forward adjusted EPS reference near $1.40. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case needs mid-single-digit organic growth, productivity delivery, margin repair, and a higher consumer-staples multiple. The base case assumes 3% to 5% organic growth and a mid-teens earnings multiple. The bearish case assumes commodity pressure, weak cash conversion, Türkiye escalation, Unilever sell-down overhang, or multiple compression.
$30 to $33
More likely if MICC sustains 8% to 9% EPS growth from a normalized base, delivers the multi-year €500 million productivity plan, expands Adjusted EBITDA margin toward 19% to 20%, resolves the Türkiye matter favorably, keeps free cash flow positive, and investors pay around 18x forward EPS.
$21 to $24
More likely if organic sales stay in the company 3% to 5% guidance band, Adjusted EBITDA margin improves 40 to 60bps on a comparable perimeter, free cash flow stays positive as the Unilever working-capital interim model normalizes, and the market keeps MICC near 13x to 14x forward earnings.
$12 to $15
More likely if volume stalls, commodities stay elevated, the Türkiye cabinet constraint spreads or escalates, TSA and interest costs linger, Unilever residual selling pressures the float, or investors re-rate MICC toward a 10x earnings multiple.
MICC AI technical analysis
MICC AI technical analysis starts from the $18.61 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3 static page. Public technical sources show the stock above a rising SMA(20) near $18.42 and SMA(50) near $17.58, with RSI near 57.8, MACD just below zero, and a 2.37% ATR. The stock consolidated in a $17.39 to $19.14 20-day range after a 25% three-month rally. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.61 | Latest verified U.S. close on July 31, 2026, used as the reference for this August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $18.22 to $18.42 | Chartmill support zone formed by multiple trend lines and important moving averages in the daily timeframe. |
| Secondary support | $17.37 to $17.84 | Chartmill support zone from multiple timeframes, overlapping the rising SMA(50) area near $17.58. A sustained break would weaken the intermediate uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $18.65 to $18.84 | Chartmill resistance zone from multiple timeframes. A break above it would open the way toward the $19.14 20-day high. |
| Major resistance | $19.14 to $19.93 | The $19.14 20-day high and the $19.93 52-week high. The all-time closing high was $19.87 on February 11, 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | About $17.58 | Chartmill showed MICC above a rising SMA(50). A daily close below this zone would challenge the intermediate bullish structure. |
| 20-day moving average | About $18.42 | Chartmill showed MICC just above a declining SMA(20). Loss of this area would cool the short-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57.8, MACD slightly below zero | Daily RSI(14) was neutral near 57.83 and MACD was -0.04 but rising. Weekly stochastics near 87.8 flagged a stretched short-term condition after the rally. |
| Volume | About 1.28M average shares | Chartmill showed average daily volume near 1.28 million shares. Breakouts need participation above that baseline. |
| Volatility | ATR around 2.4% of price | Chartmill ATR% near 2.37% implies normal multi-day swings of roughly $0.40 to $0.45 around the cutoff price. Size positions accordingly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.37 to $17.58 | A daily close below the rising 50-day area and the $17.37 to $17.84 support zone would break the intermediate uptrend and raise the odds of a deeper range reset. |
MICC AI trading strategy
The MICC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines company-reported H1 2026 evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels for a consumer-staples spinoff that is still consolidating after a strong rally.
Look for MICC to hold above the $18.42 short moving-average zone and break the $18.84 resistance band, then the $19.14 to $19.93 high zone, with improving volume before treating upside momentum as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close back below $18.22 to $18.42 should reduce confidence in the setup. Use an invalidation stop below the $17.58 SMA(50) zone.
If MICC pulls back toward $17.37 to $17.84 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with organic sales updates, Adjusted EBITDA margin progress, free cash flow, and Türkiye and Unilever sell-down headlines before adding.
Do not average down only because the brands are familiar. Define maximum loss and re-check leverage, TSA cash costs, and the August 15, 2026 Türkiye compliance milestone first.
Track H2 2026 trading updates, the August 15, 2026 Türkiye cabinet-capacity deadline, full-year 2026 organic sales in the 3% to 5% band, comparable Adjusted EBITDA margin gains of 40 to 60bps, free cash flow outside the Unilever interim working-capital model, net debt, and residual Unilever ownership.
Lower the rating if organic growth falls below about 3%, margins stall, free cash flow turns negative again, the Türkiye matter escalates, or net debt rises further after integration spending.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MICC for ice cream occasions: premium indulgence, family treats, impulse cones, better-for-you formats, and away-from-home refreshment. The company monetizes that demand through Magnum, Ben & Jerry's, Cornetto, Heartbrand, Yasso, and Popsicle brands, retail distribution, and a large freezer-cabinet network across about 80 markets.
The moat rests on brand equity, freezer placement, manufacturing scale, retailer joint business plans, and multi-country assortment. It is meaningful in ice cream, but cocoa, dairy, weather, and private-label pricing can still narrow economic returns, as the Türkiye cabinet-capacity ruling shows.
The thesis fails if commodities stay expensive, volume growth fades after pricing, the Türkiye Competition Authority constraint spreads beyond small outlets, TSA dependence lasts beyond 2027, interest on the €3.3 billion debt stack pressures free cash flow, residual Unilever selling overhangs the equity, or brand controversies around Ben & Jerry's damage retailer and consumer goodwill.
Peter ter Kulve leads as CEO after decades inside Unilever ice cream, with Abhijit Bhattacharya as CFO. H1 2026 delivery included €90 million in productivity savings, a 50bps Adjusted EBIT margin gain, on-time first-half TSA exits, and cash-funded integration of the India and Portugal acquisitions without issuing equity.
Global ice cream is a resilient, occasion-driven category with mid-single-digit growth potential from premiumization, impulse formats, emerging-market penetration, and digital commerce. Climate, commodity, and regulatory swings still make the business more seasonal and cost-sensitive than many packaged-food peers.
At about $11.39 billion of market value and roughly €13.7 billion of enterprise value on a 1.09 EUR/USD reference, MICC is not priced as a distressed orphan. Margin of safety improves only if forward adjusted EPS near $1.40 converts into cleaner free cash flow and investors do not permanently capitalize H1 finance-cost and integration noise into a high trailing multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICC price | $18.61 U.S. close on July 31, 2026 | StockTitan and Chartmill MICC market snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.39 billion, verified from $18.61 x 612.3 million shares, 0.00% variance vs Macrotrends $11.394 billion and 0.92% vs StockTitan $11.5 billion | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 612.3 million shares, cross-validated with StockTitan and Macrotrends | StockTitan MICC quote statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| H1 2026 revenue | €4.691 billion reported revenue, +4.2% reported growth, +4.7% organic sales growth (volume +2.5%, price +2.2%) | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| H1 2026 net profit and EPS | €349 million net profit, diluted EPS €0.55, adjusted diluted EPS €0.72 | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| H1 2026 adjusted profitability | Adjusted EBITDA €880 million at 18.7% margin; Adjusted EBIT €716 million at 15.3% margin, up 50bps from 14.8% | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| H1 2026 free cash flow and net debt | Free cash flow €273 million versus €138 million in H1 2025; net debt €3,264 million versus €2,967 million at end of 2025 | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| Regional organic sales growth H1 2026 | Europe & ANZ +4.1%, Americas +3.2%, AMEA +7.6%; revenue mix about €1.96bn / €1.46bn / €1.27bn | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Organic sales growth 3% to 5%; comparable Adjusted EBITDA margin +40 to +60bps; reported margin +0 to +20bps after India perimeter effects | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE about 36x on demerger-distorted earnings; forward PE roughly 13x on an adjusted EPS reference near $1.40; no trailing dividend yield at cutoff | financial_rigor.py valuation checks on H1 2026 adjusted EPS and FY2025 filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | SMA(20) about $18.42, SMA(50) about $17.58, RSI near 57.8, ATR% 2.37%, 52-week range $12.94 to $19.93 | Chartmill and Macrotrends technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Türkiye Competition Authority investigation | Investigation opened on freezer-cabinet use; interim measure requires 30% of cabinet capacity at small outlets to go to competitors or stay empty by August 15, 2026 | The Magnum Ice Cream Company 2026 Half Year Results | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest and Unilever residual stake | Short interest about 11.4 million shares, near 2.7% of float; Unilever retained a minority stake under 20% with sell-down intent, and the July 30, 2026 424B3 covers resale by selling holders | StockTitan short interest data and SEC Form 424B3 | July 31, 2026 |
This MICC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, commodity costs, currency rates, interest rates, free cash flow, the Türkiye antitrust matter, Unilever residual ownership, consumer demand, or market multiples change.
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