Miami International Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
MIAX AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Miami International Holdings as a fast-growing exchange operator trading at a premium valuation. The stock traded at $47.10 on August 3, 2026 at 11:38 AM EDT, up 0.06 or 0.13% from the $47.04 close on July 31, within a day range near $46.84 to $47.48, carrying a market capitalization near $4.56 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $47.10 times 96.79 million shares outstanding. Q1 2026 net revenue grew 40% year over year to $128.6 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 66% to $66.1 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 51%, and MIAX options market share reached 17.3% in Q1 2026 versus 16.0% a year earlier. The stock is trading above all major moving averages, with the 14-day RSI near 66.44 on Barchart and 67.31 on StockAnalysis.com, but TTM earnings are flattered by the $50.5 million MIAXdx gain and the $70.2 million deferred tax asset valuation allowance release in Q1 2026, and the valuation already prices in continued double-digit volume and market share growth. The next catalyst is the Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$47.10 at the August 3, 2026, 11:38 AM EDT reading, up 0.06 or 0.13% from the $47.04 July 31 close, after opening at $47.13
Market cap
$4.56 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Speculative hold, growth priced in
Trend status
Bullish above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but short-term stretched and below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MIAX operates eight regulated exchanges across US options, equities, futures, and international markets, generating transaction-based revenue from order routing, market data, and connectivity. Q1 2026 net revenue rose 40% to $128.6 million with adjusted EBITDA up 66% to $66.1 million at a 51% margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated exchange licenses, low-latency trading technology, and broker-dealer and member relationships built since 2007. MIAX raised options market share to 17.3% in Q1 2026, but CBOE and Nasdaq still dominate US options trading and constrain pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Founder-led by Chairman and CEO Thomas Gallagher, management scaled MIAX from one options exchange to eight exchanges and sold 90% of MIAXdx in January 2026 at a $50.5 million gain. Persistent insider selling of 746,339 shares over the past three months with no insider buys is a concern. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 19.65% to $1.36 billion, TTM revenue is about $1.41 billion, and Q1 2026 delivered 40% net revenue growth with record margins. TTM net income of $121.62 million includes one-time Q1 2026 gains, and FY2025 reported a GAAP net loss of $70.03 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $47.10, the trailing P/E was about 31.34x with a forward P/E of 28.51x, P/B of 4.16x, and EV/EBITDA of 34.65x. The premium multiple and zero dividend make valuation fully dependent on continued growth and margin execution. | High data confidence |
| Technical trend | The $47.10 price sits above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $46.51, $43.44, $42.34, $43.45, and $43.51, with 14-day RSI near 66.44 on Barchart and 67.31 on StockAnalysis.com, but it remains below the $57.14 52-week high after the May to June selloff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include options volume cyclicality, CBOE and Nasdaq fee competition, ETF market-making disintermediation, a slower futures and equities ramp, regulatory changes, persistent insider selling, elevated short interest of 7.82% of shares outstanding, and a short public history that amplifies volatility. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is higher for reported financials, market data, and cross-checked math than for forward returns. One-time Q1 2026 items flatter trailing earnings, and the limited public track record makes the sustainable growth rate harder to estimate. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Certainty is moderate for traders who accept the volatility of a newly public exchange operator with secular options volume tailwinds, and lower for long-term holders who require dividend income or a proven track record through a full options volume cycle. | Low-medium |
MIAX AI stock forecast
The MIAX AI stock forecast is a conditional range based on scenario assumptions, not a price promise. The financial_rigor.py three-scenario command used the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $1.63 as the starting point and produced a bearish area near $38, a base area near $57, and a bullish area near $79 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 8%, and 15% and exit multiples of 22x, 28x, and 32x. Analyst consensus on StockAnalysis.com is Buy with an average 12-month target of $51.00 across 7 analysts, low $43 and high $61, which is not an intrinsic value.
$70 to $85
More likely if options volumes keep growing at a double-digit pace, MIAX sustains or extends market share above 17%, the futures and equities businesses scale after OCC clearing began in May 2026, international revenue from BSX and TISE compounds, and the market holds a multiple near 30x or above on rising adjusted earnings.
$50 to $60
More likely if options volume growth normalizes to mid-to-high single digits, market share stabilizes near 17%, net revenue grows at a mid-to-high teens rate, Q2 2026 results on August 5 confirm the trend, and the stock gravitates toward the $51 to $53 analyst targets.
$35 to $42
More likely if options volumes decline, CBOE or Nasdaq cut fees to defend share, ETF-based alternatives reduce listed options demand, the futures and equities ramp disappoints, Q2 2026 misses, insider selling accelerates, or the premium multiple compresses toward the 50-day moving average near $42.
MIAX AI technical analysis
MIAX AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 intraday reading and public daily indicators. MIAX traded at $47.10 at 11:38 AM EDT, up 0.06 from the $47.04 July 31 close, above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $46.51, $43.44, $42.34, $43.45, and $43.51, with 14-day RSI near 66.44 on Barchart and 67.31 on StockAnalysis.com and 14-day stochastic near 91.6%, which flags short-term overbought conditions after the rebound from the $36.83 June low. These levels are planning references, not guarantees, and should be checked on a live chart before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.10 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:38 AM EDT reading, up 0.06 or 0.13% from the $47.04 July 31 close within a day range near $46.84 to $47.48 after opening at $47.13; the reported $4.56 billion market cap matches $47.10 times 96.79 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $46.51 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $46.51 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, with the stock up about 8% over the trailing five sessions. |
| Near support | $43.40 to $43.50 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $43.44 on August 3, 2026, forming the first pullback support zone after the July rebound. |
| Next support | $42.30 to $43.50 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $42.34 and the 100-day near $43.45, with StockAnalysis.com showing the 50-day near $42.44 and the 200-day near $43.50, clustering support in the low $42 to mid $43 area. |
| Near resistance | $47.50 to $48.00 | The August 3 day high near $47.48 and the round $48 level form the first resistance zone, with the 52-week high of $57.14 well above. |
| Next resistance | $51.00 to $53.00 | The analyst consensus target of $51.00 and recent targets of $53 from Morgan Stanley and $52 from Piper Sandler sit in this zone and represent the next upside area. |
| 52-week range | $28.63 to $57.14 | The 52-week range reflects price discovery since the August 2025 IPO. The stock sold off from the May 2026 high near $52 to a $36.83 low on June 29 and has since recovered to the low $47 area. |
| Volume | About 1.2 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.19 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.26 million on August 3, 2026, with the 50-day average near 2.0 million reflecting the higher June trading. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 30.4% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 30.37%, 20-day near 37.20%, and 50-day near 51.29%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around earnings and monthly volume reports. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66.4 to 67.3, stochastic near 91.6% | 14-day RSI was near 66.44 on Barchart and 67.31 on StockAnalysis.com, strong but not yet overbought, while the 14-day stochastic near 91.6% flags short-term stretched conditions after the July rebound. |
| Short interest | 7.57 million shares, 7.82% of shares out | Short interest of 7.57 million shares equals 7.82% of shares outstanding and 8.34% of float with 2.77 days to cover, up from 4.83 million shares the prior month, creating squeeze potential but also bearish conviction. |
| Insider activity | 746,339 shares sold in past 3 months | Barchart reported 30 insider sales and 0 buys over the past three months, a persistent selling pattern that should be monitored alongside any change in pace or new insider buying. |
| Invalidation | Close below $43.40 or sustained sub-$42 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $43.44 would weaken the short-term uptrend, and a sustained close below the 50-day near $42.34 would turn the technical picture bearish. |
MIAX AI trading strategy
The MIAX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price behavior with exchange volume trends, options market share data, insider activity monitoring, short interest, and the Q2 2026 earnings catalyst.
Watch for MIAX to hold above the 5-day moving average near $46.51 and to build volume on a move through the $47.48 to $48 resistance zone toward the $51 to $53 analyst targets. Confirm momentum with monthly exchange volume reports and the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5.
Define a maximum position size. Reduce or exit if the stock closes below the 20-day moving average near $43.44, if options market share slips for consecutive monthly reports, or if Q2 2026 results miss and the stock breaks below $42.
If MIAX pulls back toward the $42 to $43.50 support cluster without regulatory or fundamental damage, the elevated short interest may lead to a recovery toward the $47 to $48 area. The rebound from the June $36.83 low to $47 shows how quickly the stock can move when volume trends are positive.
Do not average down solely because of the short interest setup. Define an exit based on a close below the 50-day moving average near $42.34 or evidence of structural market share loss.
Track monthly exchange volume reports, options market share versus CBOE and Nasdaq, futures and equities ramp progress after OCC clearing began in May 2026, revenue per contract and capture rates, Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, insider trading patterns, and short interest changes.
Reduce exposure if options volume growth fades, market share declines for two consecutive monthly reports, insider selling broadens to include the CEO or board, or the forward P/E expands without corresponding earnings growth.
Investment research summary
MIAX operates regulated electronic exchanges where options, equities, and futures trade, earning transaction fees, market data revenue, and connectivity fees. The business scales with US listed options volume, which has grown structurally as retail and institutional options participation has expanded.
The moat is built on SEC-regulated exchange licenses, low-latency technology, and broker-dealer relationships built since 2007. MIAX raised options market share to 17.3% in Q1 2026 and operates eight exchanges, but CBOE and Nasdaq still dominate and can cut fees to defend share.
The thesis fails if options volume growth stalls, CBOE or Nasdaq aggressively price against MIAX, ETF market-making reduces exchange-listed options demand, the futures and equities expansion does not scale, a market downturn dries up options activity, or regulatory changes raise compliance costs for smaller exchanges.
Founder and Chairman Thomas Gallagher has led MIAX from a single options exchange in 2007 to eight exchanges, sold 90% of MIAXdx in January 2026 at a gain, and delivered record Q1 2026 results. The 746,339 shares of insider selling over the past three months with no insider purchases warrants ongoing monitoring.
US listed options volume has grown at a double-digit compound rate, driven by zero-commission brokerages, retail options adoption, short-dated expirations, and institutional hedging. US equity options industry ADV rose about 21.8% year to date through June 2026, a tailwind shared by all exchange operators.
At $47.10, the trailing P/E was about 31.34x with a forward P/E of 28.51x, P/B of 4.16x, and EV/EBITDA of 34.65x. The margin of safety is limited given the premium multiple, zero dividend, and short public track record, although the net cash position of roughly $573 million provides some balance sheet cushion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAX price | $47.10 at the August 3, 2026, 11:38 AM EDT reading, up 0.06 or 0.13% from the $47.04 July 31 close, within a day range near $46.84 to $47.48, after opening at $47.13 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.56 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $47.10 x 96.79 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 96.79 million shares outstanding, up 6.80% year over year, with 5.10% insider ownership and 68.00% institutional ownership | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $1.41 billion TTM revenue and $121.62 million TTM net income with TTM EPS of $1.50, per the StockAnalysis.com statistics page | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net revenue of $128.6 million up 40% year over year, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.56, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.42, adjusted EBITDA of $66.1 million up 66% at a 51% margin, operating income up 106% to $46.0 million, and GAAP net income of $170.2 million versus a net loss of $21.4 million a year earlier | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 one-time items | Non-operating income of $54.1 million includes a $50.5 million gain on the sale of 90% of MIAXdx in January 2026, and an income tax benefit of $70.2 million resulted from the release of the deferred tax asset valuation allowance | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 options market share | MIAX options exchanges reached average daily volume of 10.9 million contracts in Q1 2026, up 26.6% year over year, with market share of 17.3% versus 16.0% a year earlier | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment net revenue | Options $111.3 million up 37%, Equities $6.7 million up 82%, Futures $4.6 million down 21%, International $5.6 million up 583% on the TISE acquisition, Corporate and Other $0.4 million | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.364 billion for FY2025, up 19.65% from $1.14 billion in FY2024, with FY2025 GAAP net income of negative $70.03 million and EPS of negative $1.00 | StockAnalysis.com financials | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Options $1,107 million, Equities $153.35 million, Futures $87.87 million, International $14.69 million, and Corporate and Other $1.15 million | StockAnalysis.com financials metrics | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt as of March 31, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $550.8 million and total debt of $1.5 million as of March 31, 2026, per the Q1 2026 earnings release; the StockAnalysis.com statistics page reports cash of $595.89 million and total debt of $22.73 million under its latest balance sheet classification | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash position | Net cash of about $573 million, or roughly $5.92 per share, on the StockAnalysis.com statistics page | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs | Trailing P/E 31.34x, forward P/E 28.51x, P/B 4.16x, P/S 3.26x, EV/EBITDA 34.65x, P/FCF 24.40x, book value per share $11.31 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py exact decimal calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $217.52 million, capital expenditures of $29.78 million, and free cash flow of $187.73 million, or $1.94 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted operating expenses of $265 million to $275 million, share-based compensation of $27 million to $30 million, capital expenditures of $40 million to $45 million, depreciation and amortization of $33 million to $38 million, and an adjusted effective tax rate of 27% to 29% post valuation allowance release | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| June 2026 trading results | MIAX Exchange Group reached a record year-to-date ADV of 10.9 million contracts through June 2026, up 26.0%, with a record year-to-date options market share of 16.9% versus 16.4% a year earlier | MIAX June 2026 trading results release | July 7, 2026 |
| Futures progress | The Options Clearing Corporation began clearing for MIAX Futures in May 2026, Tini Bloomberg 100 Index Futures launched on May 19, 2026, and financial futures began trading on May 18, 2026 | Business Wire and MIAX press releases | May 20, 2026 |
| MIAXdx sale | MIAX completed the sale of 90% of MIAXdx in January 2026 to a joint venture established by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, retaining 10%, and recorded a $50.5 million gain in Q1 2026 | MIAX Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average 12-month price target of $51.00 across 7 analysts, low $43 and high $61, median $52 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley raised its target to $53 from $50 on July 10, 2026, Piper Sandler holds a $52 target, Rosenblatt holds a $61 target, and J.P. Morgan lowered its target to $43 from $45 on July 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of about $1.63 and FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate of about $1.86; the FY2026 revenue estimate of about $538 million is on a net revenue basis and reflects the MIAXdx deconsolidation, which is a different definition than the $1.41 billion TTM total revenue figure | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.57 million shares short, 7.82% of shares outstanding, 8.34% of float, 2.77 days to cover, up from 4.83 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Insider trading | 30 insider sales and 0 buys totaling 746,339 shares over the past three months; 42 sales and 2 buys totaling 1,146,906 shares over the past six months | Barchart insider trades | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $46.51, 20-day SMA near $43.44, 50-day SMA near $42.34, 100-day SMA near $43.45, 200-day SMA near $43.51, 14-day RSI near 66.44 on Barchart and 67.31 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day stochastic near 91.6%, 14-day historical volatility near 30.37% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and earnings date | 52-week range of $28.63 to $57.14, and Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis.com quote and MIAX earnings date announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This MIAX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong or outdated after new earnings, trading results, regulatory changes, or market moves. Verify current market data, filings, tax consequences, liquidity, and your own risk tolerance before making any decision.
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