MGE Energy, Inc. research snapshot
MGEE AI stock analysis evaluates MGE Energy, a Wisconsin-based regulated electric and gas utility serving approximately 170,000 electric and 123,000 gas customers. The stock closed at $81.77 on July 10, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $3.09 billion. MGE Energy reported over $740 million in trailing twelve-month revenue and $3.90 in diluted EPS, supported by rate-base growth, stable regulatory relationships in Wisconsin, and a growing renewable energy portfolio. The MGEE AI stock forecast uses three scenarios based on rate base expansion, allowed ROE trends, and utility sector valuation multiples. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$81.77 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
About $3.09 billion using approximately 37.7 million post-offering common shares
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-quality regulated utility with predictable earnings, stable dividend growth, and moderate valuation
Trend status
Neutral to slightly positive; price has recovered from the 52-week low of $72.16 and trades near the middle of the range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MGE Energy operates a stable regulated electric and gas utility in south-central Wisconsin. Recurring revenue, regulated returns, and essential service create a predictable business model. | High |
| Moat | Regulated geographic monopoly in electric distribution and gas service. Service territory includes the state capital and a growing university community, providing a stable customer base. | High |
| Management | Management has maintained consistent dividend growth, invested in renewable generation, and strengthened the balance sheet. The recent equity offering funded capital expenditures while preserving credit quality. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue and earnings have grown modestly over recent years, supported by rate base investment and customer growth. Free cash flow is negative due to elevated capex, typical for utilities. | High |
| Valuation | At 20.97x TTM PE and 2.29x book value, MGEE trades in line with small-cap regulated utility peers. The 2.32% dividend yield is below the sector average, reflecting a premium valuation. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price has recovered from the 72.16 low and is approaching the 85-90 resistance zone. Momentum is neutral with moderate volume. | Medium |
| Risk level | Below-average for equities given the regulated, essential-service nature. Key risks include rate case outcomes, rising interest rates, renewable transition costs, and equity dilution from capital raises. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for financial fundamentals and business analysis. It is medium for technical signals and medium-low for any 12-month price prediction. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | MGE Energy offers above-average certainty of steady dividend income and gradual earnings growth, but capital appreciation is more dependent on interest rate trends and regulatory outcomes. | Medium |
MGEE AI stock forecast
The MGEE AI stock forecast uses a three-scenario framework based on EPS growth, utility sector valuation multiples, and the exact decimal calculations from financial_rigor.py. The three-year scenarios project a base case target near $85 with moderate upside or downside depending on interest rates, rate case results, and capital investment execution.
$95 to $108
More likely if interest rates decline, Wisconsin regulators approve favorable rate cases supporting 5%+ EPS growth, renewable investments earn above-allowed returns, and utility sector PE multiples expand toward 24x. The recent equity offering would then appear well-timed for growth funding.
$78 to $92
More likely if interest rates stay range-bound, rate base grows at 3-4% annually, allowed ROEs remain near current levels, and the stock trades at 18-22x earnings. This case assumes steady but unspectacular financial performance consistent with small-cap regulated utilities.
$58 to $72
More likely if interest rates rise significantly, regulatory outcomes compress ROEs, construction costs exceed estimates, customer growth slows, or the utility sector de-rates toward 15-16x PE. A sustained break below $72 would signal a deterioration in the investment narrative.
MGEE AI technical analysis
MGEE AI technical analysis identifies support and resistance levels based on the July 10 close of $81.77 and the established 52-week range. Volume is moderate for a small-cap utility. Technical signals are secondary to fundamental rate base and regulatory analysis for this stock.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $81.77 | Close reference as of July 10, 2026. Price has risen from the 52-week low of $72.16. |
| Near support | $78.50 to $80.00 | This zone represents recent consolidation levels. A close below $78 would indicate short-term weakness. |
| Key support | $72.00 to $74.00 | The 52-week low of $72.16 is the primary floor. A break below this level would suggest a bearish turn in the utility investment thesis. |
| Near resistance | $85.00 to $86.00 | The upper end of recent trading. A close above $86 would signal renewed upward momentum. |
| Key resistance | $89.00 to $89.50 | The 52-week high of $89.50 from July 2025. Breaking this level would require a favorable shift in utility sector sentiment. |
| 50-day moving average | Not independently verified at the July 12 cutoff | Based on recent price action, the 50-day SMA is likely near $79-81. Confirm on a current chart before using as a trading signal. |
| 200-day moving average | Not independently verified at the July 12 cutoff | The 200-day SMA is likely in the $78-82 range. The stock is near this level, making it an important trend indicator. |
| Momentum | Neutral, with a slight positive bias | Price has recovered from the June lows and is consolidating near the middle of the 52-week range. RSI is likely near 50-55 based on the recent recovery. |
| Volume | About 105,000 shares on July 10; 30-day average near 320,000 | Volume is moderate. Below-average volume on up days and above-average on down days would be a cautionary signal. |
| Volatility and invalidation | 52-week range $72.16 to $89.50; watch a sustained close below $72 | A close below the 52-week low would invalidate the constructive base case. A close above $89.50 would open the door to the bullish scenario. |
MGEE AI trading strategy
The MGEE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework for a regulated utility stock, not personalized advice. It combines trend and mean-reversion approaches with fundamental monitors specific to utility investing. The framework does not assume that past dividend stability guarantees future returns.
Watch for MGEE to reclaim and hold above $84-86 on above-average volume while the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. A golden cross would confirm the start of an uptrend. Enter on a pullback to the rising 50-day SMA if interest rate trends are favorable for utilities.
Reduce position if price closes below $78 or if the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5% sustained, as higher rates pressure utility valuations. Exit if price breaks below $72.
If MGEE trades near the $72-75 support zone while the dividend yield rises above 2.6% and the PE compresses below 18x, consider a mean-reversion entry. Look for volume exhaustion and a bullish divergence on RSI as confirmation.
Do not average down solely because of a higher dividend yield. A rising yield could reflect a deteriorating regulatory outlook or rising interest rates, not a buying opportunity. Limit position size to account for the small-cap liquidity risk.
Track quarterly dividend declarations, the payout ratio (currently about 49% of TTM EPS), dividend growth history (consistently increased for decades), and free cash flow trends. The dividend is well-covered by earnings but not by FCF due to capex.
Position sizing should reflect that utility stocks can decline meaningfully during rising rate environments, as seen in 2022. The dividend is a return component, not a guarantee against capital loss.
Investment research summary
MGE Energy generates, purchases, and distributes electricity and natural gas to customers in south-central Wisconsin through its regulated utility subsidiary, Madison Gas and Electric. Customers pay for essential energy services at rates approved by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. The company also owns non-regulated renewable generation and transmission assets that provide incremental earnings.
MGE operates as a regulated electric and gas monopoly in its service territory, which includes Madison, the state capital, and the University of Wisconsin. This geographic franchise provides a natural moat: no competitor can duplicate the distribution infrastructure, and customers have no alternative supplier for electric distribution service. Wisconsin regulation has historically supported reasonable returns.
The thesis fails if Wisconsin regulators disallow costs, reduce allowed ROEs, or deny rate increases; if rising interest rates make utility dividends uncompetitive; if the renewable transition costs exceed estimates; if customer growth stalls; or if the recent equity offering signals that internally generated cash is insufficient for the capex program. The most important mistake would be expecting utility returns to match broader market returns without accepting the associated risks.
CEO Jeff Keebler has led MGE Energy since 2016, maintaining a consistent strategy of rate base investment, dividend growth, and regulatory engagement. The company has increased its dividend for over 30 consecutive years. Management has invested in solar, wind, and battery storage to meet Wisconsin renewable standards. Key-person risk is moderate given the regulated business model and the depth of the utility management team.
Regulated electric utilities are experiencing rising capital spending driven by renewable generation, grid modernization, and electrification. This rate base growth supports earnings increases but also requires external financing. Interest rate sensitivity is a defining characteristic of the utility sector: higher rates increase borrowing costs and make utility dividend yields relatively less attractive.
At $81.77, MGEE trades at 20.97x TTM earnings and 2.29x book value, with a 2.32% dividend yield. The three-scenario valuation projects a base case of about $85 in three years under 3% EPS growth and 20x PE, implying modest annual returns including dividends. The margin of safety is limited at the current price, as the stock already trades near fair value in a base-case scenario. A meaningful margin of safety would require a price closer to $72 or below.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGEE share price | $81.77 at the July 10, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance MGEE summary page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $3.09 billion | Yahoo Finance and Barchart market data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $743.7 million to $750.4 million across sources | Yahoo Finance and Barchart financial summary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $135.9 million to $142.8 million across sources | Yahoo Finance and Barchart financial summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Diluted EPS (TTM) | $3.90 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 20.97x, verified via exact decimal calculation | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation tool | July 12, 2026 |
| Price-to-book ratio | 2.29x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.90 per share annual, 2.32% forward yield | Yahoo Finance dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | About $4.02 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.80x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $72.16 to $89.50 | Yahoo Finance and Barchart market data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | Diluted EPS of $1.32, net income of $48.9 million | MGE Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull $108 (24x PE, 5% growth), Base $85 (20x PE, 3% growth), Bear $64 (16x PE, 1% growth) over 3 years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario tool | July 12, 2026 |
This MGEE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and does not constitute investment, tax, legal, or financial advice. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on available data and fundamental analysis, and they may be wrong. Past dividend performance does not guarantee future payments. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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