MGE Energy, Inc. research snapshot
MGEE AI stock analysis evaluates MGE Energy, a Wisconsin regulated electric and gas utility serving approximately 170,000 electric and 180,000 gas customers in and around Dane County. The stock closed at $80.00 on August 3, 2026, with a market capitalization near $3.02 billion. MGE Energy reported FY2025 revenue of $743.7 million, net income of $135.9 million, and diluted EPS of $3.72, with Q1 2026 EPS of $1.32 up from $1.14 a year earlier. The stock trades at 20.51x trailing earnings and 2.18x book value with a 2.38% dividend yield after 51 years of consecutive dividend increases. The MGEE AI stock forecast uses three scenarios tied to rate base growth, allowed returns, and utility sector multiples. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$80.00 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.47 or 0.59% from the $79.53 July 31 close, after opening at $79.60 and trading in a session range of $79.37 to $81.37 on the StockAnalysis.com real-time quote, with an after-hours quote of $80.00 unchanged
Market cap
$3.02 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 close, matching the $80.00 price times 37.75 million shares outstanding, with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 36,756,422 shares as of April 30, 2026 before the May 6, 2026 equity offering added about 0.99 million shares
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Steady regulated utility with premium valuation and negative free cash flow
Trend status
Neutral; price sits above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $78.90 and $79.55 but below the 20-day near $81.43, trading in the middle of the $72.16 to $88.01 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MGE Energy operates a regulated electric and gas utility through Madison Gas and Electric, serving about 170,000 electric customers in Dane County and about 180,000 gas customers across seven Wisconsin counties. Recurring regulated revenue and essential service create a predictable business model. | High |
| Moat | Regulated geographic monopoly in electric distribution and gas service. The service territory includes Madison, the state capital, and the University of Wisconsin, and the 2026/2027 rate settlement approved by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin sets electric and gas returns through 2027. | High |
| Management | CEO Jeff Keebler and CFO Jared Bushek have maintained a steady strategy of rate base investment, dividend growth, and conservative financing. The board raised the annualized dividend 5.6% to $1.90 in 2025, marking 50 consecutive years of increases, and the May 2026 equity offering funded the capex program while preserving credit quality. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.9% to $743.7 million and net income rose 12.7% to $135.9 million, with diluted EPS of $3.72. Q1 2026 EPS rose to $1.32 from $1.14. Five-year EPS CAGR is about 7.4%, but free cash flow is negative because capex is elevated. | High |
| Valuation | At 20.51x trailing earnings, 4.02x sales, 2.18x book value, and a 2.38% dividend yield, MGEE trades above the regulated utility peer average. The premium is supported by the dividend record and rate base growth but leaves limited margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price closed at $80.00 on August 3, 2026, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $78.90 and $79.55 but below the 20-day near $81.43, with 14-day RSI near 47, a neutral position in the middle of the $72.16 to $88.01 range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Below-average for equities given the regulated, essential-service nature. Key risks are the premium valuation, negative free cash flow against a capex program near $2 billion over five years, equity dilution from the May 2026 offering, solar tariff and supply chain cost risk, and higher interest rates pressuring utility yields. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for financial fundamentals and business analysis that cross-validated across filings and StockAnalysis.com. It is medium for technical signals and medium-low for any 12-month price prediction. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | MGE Energy offers above-average certainty of steady dividend income and gradual earnings growth, but the thin margin of safety at a premium valuation means the risk-return trade is less favorable than at lower prices. | Medium |
MGEE AI stock forecast
The MGEE AI stock forecast uses a three-scenario framework based on FY2026 consensus EPS of $3.93, rate base growth, allowed returns near 9.8%, and utility sector valuation multiples, calculated with the exact decimals from financial_rigor.py. The three-year scenarios project a base target near $90, with upside toward the low $100s if rate base and multiple expand and downside toward the mid-$60s if returns compress or interest rates rise.
$96 to $112
More likely if interest rates decline, Wisconsin regulators approve the projected 2027 rate increases of 3.63% for electric and 2.04% for gas, renewable and battery projects are recovered in rates, data center load in the service territory adds demand, and utility sector multiples expand toward 21x to 22x earnings.
$80 to $96
More likely if interest rates stay range-bound, rate base grows along the 2026 to 2030 capex forecast of roughly $395 million to $580 million per year, allowed returns near 9.8% hold, and the stock trades at 19x to 20x earnings. This case assumes steady but unspectacular financial performance.
$58 to $70
More likely if interest rates rise significantly, the PSCW compresses allowed returns, solar supply chain tariffs or UFLPA restrictions raise project costs above approved levels, free cash flow stays negative for longer, or the utility sector de-rates toward 15x to 16x earnings. A sustained close below the $72.16 52-week low would signal a deterioration in the investment narrative.
MGEE AI technical analysis
MGEE AI technical analysis identifies support and resistance based on the $80.00 August 3, 2026 close and the established 52-week range of $72.16 to $88.01. The stock is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages but below its 20-day average, a neutral configuration. Volume is moderate for a small-cap utility and technical signals are secondary to fundamental rate base and regulatory analysis.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $80.00 | Close reference as of August 3, 2026. Price is up 0.59% from the $79.53 July 31 close but down about 4.7% over the trailing 52 weeks. |
| 5-day moving average | $80.26 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026, just above the current price, signaling short-term momentum is flat. |
| 20-day moving average | $81.43 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026. A reclaim of this level would signal short-term strength. |
| 50-day moving average | $78.90 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $78.90 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and a first support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $79.55 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $79.55 on August 3, 2026. Price is only modestly above this long-term trend line. |
| Near support | $78.50 to $79.60 | The 50-day and 200-day moving average cluster. A close below $78 would signal short-term weakness. |
| Key support | $72.00 to $74.00 | The 52-week low of $72.16 is the primary floor. A break below this level would suggest a bearish turn in the utility investment thesis. |
| Near resistance | $81.50 to $84.30 | The 20-day moving average near $81.43 and the July 2026 swing highs around $84.23 form the first resistance zone. |
| Key resistance | $88.01 | The 52-week high of $88.01. Breaking this level would require a favorable shift in utility sector sentiment and interest rate expectations. |
| Momentum | Neutral, 14-day RSI near 47 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported 14-day RSI near 47.17 on August 3, 2026. RSI estimates near 53 using a simple averaging method, so call the reading neutral rather than directional. |
| Volume | About 181,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 181,341 shares on August 3, 2026, with about 153,000 shares traded on the August 3 session. Low volume means breakouts and breakdowns should be confirmed carefully. |
| Volatility and invalidation | 52-week range $72.16 to $88.01; watch a sustained close below $72 | The 14-day realized volatility computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history is near 20% annualized as of August 3, 2026, with beta near 0.71. A close below the 52-week low would invalidate the constructive base case. |
MGEE AI trading strategy
The MGEE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for a regulated utility stock, not personalized advice. It combines trend and mean-reversion approaches with fundamental monitors specific to utility investing. The framework does not assume that past dividend stability guarantees future returns.
Watch for MGEE to reclaim and hold above the 20-day moving average near $81.43 on above-average volume while the 50-day moving average near $78.90 stays below price. A move above the July swing high near $84.23 would confirm renewed upward momentum. Enter on a pullback to the rising 50-day average if interest rate trends are favorable for utilities.
Reduce position if price closes below the 200-day moving average near $79.55 or if the 10-year Treasury yield rises sharply, as higher rates pressure utility valuations. Exit if price breaks below $72.
If MGEE trades near the $72 to $76 support zone while the dividend yield rises above 2.5% and the PE compresses below 19x, consider a mean-reversion entry. Look for volume exhaustion and a bullish divergence on RSI as confirmation.
Do not average down solely because of a higher dividend yield. A rising yield could reflect rising interest rates or a deteriorating regulatory outlook, not a buying opportunity. Limit position size to account for the small-cap liquidity risk and the negative free cash flow.
Track quarterly dividend declarations, the payout ratio near 49% of TTM EPS, the 51-year dividend increase record, rate case outcomes, and free cash flow trends. The dividend is well-covered by earnings but not by free cash flow because capex is elevated.
Position sizing should reflect that utility stocks can decline meaningfully during rising rate environments, as seen in 2022. The dividend is a return component, not a guarantee against capital loss.
Investment research summary
MGE Energy generates, purchases, and distributes electricity and natural gas to customers in south-central Wisconsin through its regulated utility subsidiary Madison Gas and Electric. Customers pay for essential energy services at rates approved by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. The company also owns non-regulated renewable generation, a lease-backed ownership interest in generation capacity, and an equity stake in the ATC transmission company.
MGE operates as a regulated electric and gas monopoly in its service territory, which includes Madison, the state capital, and the University of Wisconsin. This geographic franchise provides a natural moat: no competitor can duplicate the distribution infrastructure, and customers have no alternative supplier for electric distribution service. The December 2025 settlement approved electric rate increases of 0.15% for 2026 and 3.63% for 2027 and gas increases of 2.77% for 2026 and 2.04% for 2027, with an allowed ROE of 9.8%.
The thesis fails if Wisconsin regulators disallow costs, reduce allowed returns below 9.8%, or deny rate increases; if rising interest rates make a 2.38% dividend yield uncompetitive; if solar tariffs, UFLPA restrictions, or supply chain delays push the renewable and storage program above its roughly $544.9 million solar share of estimated costs; if data center load fails to materialize; or if the negative free cash flow persists against a five-year capex plan near $2 billion. The most important mistake would be paying a premium multiple for a business whose earnings growth depends on regulatory approval and external financing.
CEO Jeff Keebler has led MGE Energy since 2018, and CFO Jared Bushek has served as CFO since March 2023. The board raised the annualized dividend 5.6% to $1.90 in 2025, marking 50 consecutive years of increases and more than 110 years of payments. Management closed a $250 million equity offering on May 6, 2026, executed an agreement to buy a 33.4% interest in the RockGen gas-fired plant for about $203 million pending approval, and targets nearly $2 billion of capital investment over five years including about 400 MW of renewables and storage. Key-person risk is moderate given the regulated business model and the depth of the management team.
Regulated electric utilities are facing rising capital spending driven by renewable generation, grid modernization, electrification, and potential data center load in Wisconsin. This rate base growth supports earnings increases but also requires external financing. Interest rate sensitivity is a defining characteristic of the utility sector: higher rates increase borrowing costs and make a 2.38% dividend yield relatively less attractive.
At $80.00, MGEE trades at 20.51x trailing earnings, 4.02x sales, 2.18x book value, and 13.83x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.38% dividend yield below the regulated utility sector average. The three-scenario valuation projects a base case near $90 in three years under about 4% EPS growth and a 20x exit multiple, a bullish case near $106 under 7% growth and 22x, and a bearish case near $65 under 1% growth and 16x. The margin of safety is limited at the current price, as the stock already trades near fair value in the base case. A meaningful margin of safety would require a price closer to $74 or below.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGEE share price | $80.00 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.47 or 0.59% from the $79.53 July 31 close, after opening at $79.60 and trading in a session range of $79.37 to $81.37, with an after-hours quote of $80.00 unchanged | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.02 billion, matching the $80.00 price times 37.75 million shares outstanding, with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 36,756,422 shares as of April 30, 2026 before the May 6, 2026 equity offering added about 0.99 million issued shares plus 2.31 million shares under forward sale agreements | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, MGE Energy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, May 6, 2026 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $743.65 million, up 9.9% from $676.94 million in FY2024, matching the 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis.com financials | MGE Energy FY2025 Form 10-K, Macrotrends, StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $767 million based on FY2025 revenue of $743.65 million plus Q1 2026 revenue of $242.70 million minus Q1 2025 revenue of $218.97 million; StockAnalysis.com statistics lists about $750.4 million, a source gap of roughly 2% | MGE Energy FY2025 Form 10-K, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $142.78 million, with TTM diluted EPS of $3.90 | StockAnalysis.com income statement and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $242.7 million, operating income of $53.2 million, net income of $48.5 million, and diluted EPS of $1.32, up from $1.14 in Q1 2025; segment net income of $25.7 million electric, $13.8 million gas, $6.3 million nonregulated energy, $2.6 million transmission investments, and $0.1 million all other | MGE Energy Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS and valuation check | 20.51x trailing PE, 20.00x forward PE, 4.02x sales, 2.18x book value, 2.24x tangible book value, 11.35x operating cash flow, verified via exact decimal calculation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | Enterprise value near $3.95 billion, with EV/EBITDA of 13.83x, EV/EBIT of 23.12x, and EV/sales of 5.27x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $9.47 million, total debt of $941.07 million including $40.25 million short-term debt, $20.47 million long-term debt due within one year, and $880.34 million long-term debt, net debt of $931.60 million, and common equity of $1.35 billion as of March 31, 2026 | MGE Energy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $266.07 million, capital expenditures of $396.71 million, and free cash flow of negative $130.64 million; FY2025 free cash flow was negative $80.0 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Capex forecast | Forecast capital expenditures of $395 million for 2026, $580 million for 2027, $300 million for 2028, $310 million for 2029, and $315 million for 2030, driven by about 252 MW of solar, 18 MW of wind, and 125 MW of storage plus grid modernization | MGE Energy FY2025 Form 10-K liquidity section | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.90 per share annualized at a 2.38% forward yield, quarterly dividend of $0.475, ex-dividend date June 1, 2026, 5.56% dividend growth over one year, payout ratio near 49%, and 51 years of consecutive dividend increases | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $72.16 to $88.01, with the stock down about 4.7% over the trailing 52 weeks and an average 52-week price near $80.51 | StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026/2027 rate case | PSCW settlement approved in December 2025: 0.15% electric and 2.77% gas increases for 2026 and 3.63% electric and 2.04% gas increases for 2027, with an allowed ROE of 9.8% and a common equity component near 56% | MGE Energy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q rate matters section | August 4, 2026 |
| Equity offering | $250 million public offering of 3,300,331 shares priced on May 6, 2026, of which 990,099 shares were issued by the company and 2,310,232 shares are subject to forward sale agreements with an initial forward price of $72.9094 per share settling no later than January 8, 2028 | MGE Energy May 6, 2026 Form 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $77.75 across 4 analysts, low $76 and high $81; Morgan Stanley keeps an Underweight rating with a target of $76, Ladenburg rates the stock Buy with a target of $81, and Freedom Capital Markets rates it Hold with a target of $77 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.56 million shares short, 4.12% of shares outstanding, 4.94 days to cover, down from 1.73 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull near $106 (7% EPS growth, 22x PE), base near $90 (4% EPS growth, 20x PE), bear near $65 (1% EPS growth, 16x PE) over 3 years from a $3.93 FY2026 consensus EPS base | financial_rigor.py three-scenario tool | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $80.26 and 20-day moving average near $81.43 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $78.90 and 200-day moving average near $79.55 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 47.17, 14-day realized volatility near 20% annualized computed from daily closes, and 20-day average volume near 181,341 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This MGEE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and does not constitute investment, tax, legal, or financial advice. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on available data and fundamental analysis as of the stated data cutoff, and they may be wrong. Past dividend performance does not guarantee future payments. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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