NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. research snapshot
NWE AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads NorthWestern Energy Group as a stable regulated utility that has pulled back from its 2026 highs while a pending all-stock merger with Black Hills Corporation moves through the final regulatory steps. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered total revenue of $392.6 million, up 14.6 percent year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.50, up $0.10, driven by new Montana rates and transmission growth. The stock closed at $68.74 on July 31, 2026, down from the July high near $75, with a market capitalization near $4.23 billion verified as $68.74 times the 61.51 million shares listed on the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover. Under the merger agreement each NWE share converts into 0.98 shares of Black Hills, the combined company is expected to be renamed Bright Horizon Energy, and management anticipates closing by year-end 2026 subject to Montana Public Service Commission approval and other conditions. Trailing GAAP EPS of $2.77 is down about 24 percent year over year, putting the trailing P/E near 24.8x, while the forward P/E on consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of about $3.75 is near 18.3x. The open questions are whether merger approval, cost synergies, and data center load growth justify the premium valuation, and how the 1.24 debt-to-equity ratio and a payout ratio above 96 percent are managed. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$68.74 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$4.23 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Stable regulated utility with a pending all-stock merger and a 3.9 percent dividend yield
Trend status
Pulled back from the July 2026 high near $75 to the July 31 close of $68.74, trading just below its 50-day moving average near $71 and near its 200-day moving average around $68 with a low beta of 0.36
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NWE runs a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving roughly 718,000 customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska, with TTM revenue of $1.69 billion and Q2 2026 total revenue up 14.6 percent on new Montana rates and transmission growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated monopoly service territories, municipal franchise agreements, and the essential nature of electricity and natural gas. It is durable, but regulators set prices and allowed returns, so the company cannot price on its own. | Medium-high |
| Management | Leadership has advanced the Black Hills merger through board, shareholder, and Hart-Scott-Rodino approval and kept a $3.2 billion capital plan on track, with adjusted EPS up in both Q1 and Q2 2026. The main test is closing the deal and integrating Bright Horizon Energy by year-end 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue grew 10.7 percent to $1.69 billion, but TTM net income fell 24.0 percent to $171.4 million and TTM GAAP EPS fell 24.5 percent to $2.77, with total debt near $3.60 billion, a 1.24 debt-to-equity ratio, and interest coverage of 2.02 times. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 24.8x trailing GAAP earnings, 18.3x forward earnings, 2.5x sales, 1.46x book value, and 13.6x EV/EBITDA, NWE trades above its own five-year history and utility peers, reflecting merger optimism. The 3.9 percent dividend yield is offset by a payout ratio near 96.7 percent. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NWE gained about 30.7 percent over the trailing year, peaked near $75 in July 2026, and then fell to the July 31 close of $68.74, below the 50-day moving average near $71.04 and just above the 200-day moving average near $68.15, with the RSI at 37.13. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Montana PSC denial or material conditions on the Black Hills merger, the fixed 0.98 exchange ratio delivering weak relative value, rising interest rates compressing utility multiples, a 1.24 debt-to-equity ratio with interest coverage of 2.02 times, and rate case outcomes that reduce allowed ROE. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive analysis, Q2 2026 financials, financial math, and market data. Lower for forward returns because merger approval, close timing, future rate cases, and interest rate movements are inherently uncertain. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. NWE is a defensive income holding with a defined merger path, but the stock already prices in a favorable outcome, and a binary regulatory decision plus above-average leverage keep certainty below the level of a utility trading near book value. | Medium |
NWE AI stock forecast
The NWE AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a promise. Using the July 31, 2026 close near $68.74, consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of about $3.75, and a three-year framework computed with exact decimal arithmetic, the tested range spans a bearish area near $49, a base area near $72, and a bullish area near $89. These outputs depend on Montana PSC approval and close timing, cost synergy delivery, data center load growth, interest rate trends, and the terminal valuation multiple assigned to regulated utilities.
$85 to $95
More likely if the Montana PSC approves the Black Hills merger on favorable terms with the close completed by year-end 2026, cost synergies and data center load growth materialize as planned, rate cases stay constructive, and utility multiples hold in a stable or falling interest rate environment.
$66 to $78
More likely if the merger completes with some regulatory conditions, NWE grows adjusted EPS at roughly 4 percent per year, dividends rise about 1.5 percent annually, and utility sector multiples stay near current levels with interest rates roughly unchanged.
$45 to $52
More likely if the Montana PSC blocks or materially delays the merger, the fixed 0.98 exchange ratio leaves NWE holders exposed to Black Hills weakness, interest rates rise and compress utility multiples, or the high debt load creates refinancing stress.
NWE AI technical analysis
NWE AI technical analysis shows a low-beta utility that rallied about 30.7 percent over the trailing year and then pulled back from its July 2026 highs. As of the August 2, 2026 statistics snapshot, NWE closed at $68.74 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $71.04 and just above its 200-day moving average near $68.15, with the RSI at 37.13. The stock is now testing the support zone that defines the medium-term uptrend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $68.74 | StockAnalysis.com showed the July 31, 2026 close at $68.74 on volume of about 433,000 shares, with a day range of $68.53 to $69.74. |
| Near support | $67.00 to $68.50 | The 200-day moving average near $68.15 and the July 31 intraday low of $68.53. Multiple recent sessions have seen dips into this area bought. |
| Deeper support | $62.00 to $65.00 | The zone below the 200-day moving average. A decisive break through this area would signal a reversal of the medium-term uptrend that started in late 2025. |
| Near resistance | $69.75 to $71.04 | The prior close near $69.73 and the 50-day moving average near $71.04. NWE needs a weekly close above this zone to confirm the pullback is over. |
| Upper resistance | $73.00 to $75.18 | The July 2026 high zone and the 52-week high of $75.18. A breakout above $75.18 with rising volume would be technically significant. |
| 50-day SMA | About $71.04 | Price sitting below this level shows short-term weakness after the July pullback. |
| 200-day SMA | About $68.15 | Holding above this long-term average keeps the medium-term uptrend intact. |
| Momentum | Turning lower | The RSI sits near 37.13 after the trailing-year gain of 30.7 percent, showing momentum has cooled as the stock approaches support. |
| Volatility | Low | NWE has a beta of 0.36, making it a low-volatility holding with typical daily moves of 1 to 2 percent. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $65.00 | A sustained close below the 200-day moving average support zone near $65 would damage the medium-term uptrend and suggest a shift in sentiment toward the stock. |
NWE AI trading strategy
The NWE AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines the merger timeline, business evidence, and technical confirmation for a low-volatility regulated utility with a 3.9 percent dividend yield.
Wait for NWE to hold above the 200-day moving average near $68 and reclaim the 50-day moving average near $71 before treating the pullback as over. Confirm with merger approval milestones, quarterly earnings consistency, and dividend growth as fundamental support.
If NWE closes below $65 or the merger thesis deteriorates, reduce confidence in the long setup. Keep positions modest during the Montana PSC decision window and define risk before entry.
NWE pays $0.67 per quarter with a 3.9 percent yield, and the next ex-dividend date is August 17, 2026. The RSI near 37 with price near the 200-day moving average can set up a mean-reversion entry toward the support zone.
Do not trade solely for dividend capture without accounting for transaction costs and taxes. The payout ratio above 96 percent limits dividend growth expectations and leaves little room for a surprise.
Track the Montana Public Service Commission review and closing conditions for the all-stock merger under which each NWE share converts into 0.98 shares of Black Hills, with close expected by year-end 2026. Monitor the Black Hills price because NWE holders receive BKH stock.
Size positions for a binary regulatory outcome. If the merger is blocked or materially delayed, expect a re-rating toward pre-announcement valuation levels and reassess the setup.
Investment research summary
NorthWestern Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas utility that earns commission-approved returns by delivering essential energy to roughly 718,000 customers in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. TTM revenue reached $1.69 billion, with electric segment revenue of about $1.34 billion.
The moat is defined by regulated monopoly service territories, municipal franchise agreements, and the essential nature of electricity and natural gas. Competitors cannot legally enter these service areas, but regulators, not the company, set prices and allowed returns.
The thesis fails if the Montana PSC blocks or materially conditions the Black Hills merger, the fixed 0.98 exchange ratio leaves NWE holders with weak relative value, interest rates rise and compress utility multiples, allowed ROE declines in future rate cases, or the high debt load forces expensive refinancing.
Leadership has executed rate cases, cleared shareholder and Hart-Scott-Rodino approval for the Black Hills merger, and kept a $3.2 billion capital plan on track, with adjusted EPS up in Q1 and Q2 2026. The remaining test is closing the merger and integrating the combined company, Bright Horizon Energy, by year-end 2026.
Regulated utilities sit in a secular capital expansion driven by electrification, grid modernization, renewable generation, and rising data center load. NWE has signed development agreements with Sabey Data Centers and Atlas Power Holdings, but this growth requires heavy external financing that keeps debt ratios elevated.
At roughly 24.8x trailing GAAP earnings, 18.3x forward earnings, 2.5x sales, and 13.6x EV/EBITDA, NWE trades above utility peers and its own history, reflecting merger optimism. Margin of safety is thin unless the merger closes and cost synergies arrive as planned.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWE price | $68.74 close on July 31, 2026, day range $68.53 to $69.74 | StockAnalysis.com quote (S&P Global Market Intelligence, CBOE) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.23 billion, verified as $68.74 x 61.52 million shares, 0.03% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.52 million, listed as 61,513,596 on the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.69 billion, up 10.7% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $392.6 million, up 14.6%; electric $324.3 million, gas $68.3 million | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q income statement | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and adjusted EPS | Net income $25.0 million, up 17.7%; adjusted EPS $0.50, up $0.10 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $171.4 million and $2.77, down 24.0% and 24.5% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 24.8x, calculated as $68.74 / $2.77 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 18.3x on consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of about $3.75 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | July 31, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.68 annual, $0.67 quarterly, 3.90% yield | StockAnalysis.com dividend | August 3, 2026 |
| Ex-dividend date and payout | Ex-dividend August 17, 2026; 20 years of dividend growth; payout ratio 96.7% | StockAnalysis.com dividend and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $52.24 to $75.18 | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $7.82 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $47.07, from equity of $2,895.3 million on 61.51 million shares | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt and leverage | Total debt about $3.60 billion; long-term debt $3.44 billion per 10-Q; debt-to-equity 1.24 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Interest coverage | 2.02 times | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta and trailing return | Beta 0.36; 52-week price change +30.66% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $71.04; 200-day moving average $68.15; RSI 37.13 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 7 analysts; average price target $74.42, range $70 to $78.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence, TipRanks) | July 31, 2026 |
This NWE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints. The pending all-stock merger with Black Hills Corporation requires Montana Public Service Commission approval and other conditions before closing, and NWE carries above-average debt leverage for a regulated utility.
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