Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
MDGL AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as the commercial leader in MASH whose value is concentrated in Rezdiffra (resmetirom), the first approved therapy for MASH with moderate to advanced fibrosis. At the July 31, 2026 close, MDGL traded at $467.32, down 5.23% on the day after the Q2 2026 report, with an implied market capitalization of about $10.80 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $467.32 times 23.10 million shares outstanding with a 0.05% deviation against the StockAnalysis.com reported market cap. Q2 2026 Rezdiffra net sales reached $364.3 million, up 71% year over year and ahead of consensus, active patients surpassed 49,000 at June 30 and 50,000 in July, and trailing-twelve-month net sales approached $1.3 billion, while the company still reported a Q2 net loss of $57.9 million and held $838.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$467.32
Market cap
$10.80 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Strong MASH franchise, premium multiple, and a post-earnings technical pullback
Trend status
Commercial growth strong but the stock fell below every major moving average after the Q2 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Madrigal sells Rezdiffra, an oral thyroid hormone receptor-beta agonist for MASH with fibrosis, turning specialist diagnosis and prescribing into product revenue approaching $1.3 billion in trailing-twelve-month net sales with roughly 91% gross margin. | High |
| Moat | First approved MASH medicine, new resmetirom patents protecting into 2042 to 2045, real-world efficacy data, specialist relationships, and EU expansion support the moat, but GLP-1 MASH competition and future pipeline entrants can narrow it. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bill Sibold and the commercial team beat Q2 consensus, passed the 50,000 patient milestone, built a 10+ program pipeline including an oral GLP-1 now in Phase 1, and added three resmetirom patents, while still funding losses and investing in the endocrinology field force. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 71% to $364.3 million, TTM revenue reached about $1.28 billion, FY2025 revenue was $958.4 million versus $180.1 million in 2024, and Q2 2026 net loss narrowed to $57.9 million from $42.3 million on an operating basis while including a $25.0 million one-time business development charge. | High |
| Valuation | At $467.32, MDGL traded near 8.41x TTM sales, 6.07x forward sales, and 20.61x book value, with a negative trailing PE near -32.9x on losses, so valuation depends on continued growth and a path to the FY2027 profitability consensus models. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart showed MDGL closed at $467.32 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day ($519.47), 20-day ($537.97), 50-day ($516.35), 100-day ($509.43), and 200-day ($507.25) moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 32.89 and a bearish -DI setup after a 5.23% post-earnings drop. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are Rezdiffra concentration, Novo Nordisk and other GLP-1 MASH competitors, gross-to-net discounting, the unresolved Europe reimbursement and MFN question, ongoing operating losses, F4C trial timing, and clinical or label setbacks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and verified calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because biotech and specialty-pharma stocks reprice around competition, reimbursement, quarterly demand data, and trial readouts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. MDGL has a valuable commercial franchise in MASH and a consensus path to profitability, but the setup is less certain once competition, profitability timing, and premium sales multiples are included. | Medium-low |
MDGL AI stock forecast
The MDGL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $467.32. Because MDGL still reports GAAP losses, the audited three-year framework applies the consensus FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $9.63 as a path-to-profitability proxy. The model produced a bullish area near $832, a base area near $541, and a bearish area near $255 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 20%, 12%, and 2% and exit multiples of 50x, 40x, and 25x before dilution, competition shocks, or major reimbursement changes.
$790 to $860
More likely if Rezdiffra keeps adding patients in the U.S., the F4C MAESTRO Outcomes trial reads out on schedule in 2027, oral GLP-1 and combination programs de-risk multi-year growth, net pricing holds, and investors keep paying a premium growth multiple as FY2027 profitability approaches.
$510 to $570
More likely if sales keep rising near consensus (about $1.52 billion in FY2026 and $2.14 billion in FY2027), adjusted EPS turns positive as consensus models around $9.63 in FY2027, and the market holds MDGL near a high but settling growth multiple.
$240 to $270
More likely if patient growth stalls, GLP-1 MASH competition or payer pressure cuts net revenue, the F4C readout slips or disappoints, Europe reimbursement stays unresolved, losses persist longer than expected, dilution rises, or the stock rerates toward a low earnings multiple on weaker fundamentals.
MDGL AI technical analysis
MDGL AI technical analysis turned cautious as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart closed MDGL at $467.32 on July 31, 2026, down 5.23% on the day after the Q2 report, below the 5-day ($519.47), 20-day ($537.97), 50-day ($516.35), 100-day ($509.43), and 200-day ($507.25) moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 32.89 approaching oversold and a bearish directional setup with -DI near 32.95 above +DI near 13.41. The 52-week band ran from $290.00 to $615.00.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $467.32 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 23.10 million shares outstanding with a 0.05% deviation. |
| Near support | $460 to $462 | The July 31, 2026 intraday low was $460.11, with the day range of $460.11 to $490.23 marking the first near-term support zone. |
| Secondary support | $440 to $455 | A round-number zone below the post-earnings low. Watch whether buyers defend it if the stock extends the pullback. |
| Moving averages | Price below all major SMAs | Barchart showed the 5-day near $519.47, 20-day near $537.97, 50-day near $516.35, 100-day near $509.43, and 200-day near $507.25, all above the July 31 close. |
| Resistance | $490 to $494, then $507 to $538 | The July 30 previous close near $493.11 is the first overhead zone. A reclaim of the 50-day near $516 and the 20-day near $538 would rebuild the uptrend. |
| Momentum | Oversold-leaning RSI with bearish direction | RSI 14 near 32.89 and RSI 9 near 25.46 sit in oversold-leaning territory, while ADX near 20.77 with -DI near 32.95 above +DI near 13.41 points to downside momentum after the earnings drop. |
| Volume | Elevated on the earnings drop | 20-day average volume near 372k shares with the 5-day average near 625k. Compare spikes with earnings, payer news, competitor MASH labels, and F4C trial updates. |
| Volatility | High for a commercial biotech | Barchart 14-day ATR near $26.72 (5.72%) and 14-day historic volatility near 53.7%. Expect large moves around quarterly patient metrics, net price, competition headlines, and trial readouts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $460, then $440 | A decisive break below the $460 to $462 zone would extend the pullback toward the $440 to $455 area. A reclaim of the 20-day near $538 would be needed to restore the swing uptrend. |
MDGL AI trading strategy
The MDGL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-growth, single-product specialty biopharma stock with competition, reimbursement, and trial event risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and MASH competitive checks.
With price below all major moving averages, wait for MDGL to reclaim the 50-day near $516 and the 20-day near $538, or to form a higher low above the $460 to $462 support zone, before treating the move as a new swing. Confirm with rising RSI off the oversold zone and no negative competitive or payer news.
A close below $460 should invalidate a near-term recovery attempt. A close below $440 should force a full review of Rezdiffra growth, gross-to-net, competition, and cash runway assumptions.
With RSI near 33 and price 14% below the 5-day average after the earnings drop, an oversold bounce is possible, but only if MDGL holds the $460 to $462 zone and demand appears without a new competitive, safety, or reimbursement problem.
Do not treat every pullback as mean reversion. Specialty-pharma support levels can fail fast when competitor labels, net price cuts, F4C readout timing, or demand misses change the growth path.
Track Rezdiffra net sales, patient counts, gross-to-net in the mid-to-high 30s, U.S. and EU adoption, the unresolved Europe reimbursement and MFN question, GLP-1 competition, operating expenses, cash and debt, dilution, the F4C MAESTRO Outcomes trial, and pipeline programs including the oral GLP-1 and siRNA combinations.
Reduce confidence if valuation depends mainly on a premium sales multiple rather than durable patient growth, improving operating leverage, and a credible path to the FY2027 profitability consensus models.
Investment research summary
Madrigal turns MASH diagnosis, specialist prescribing, and oral once-daily therapy into Rezdiffra product revenue for patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis and fibrosis, with trailing-twelve-month net sales approaching $1.3 billion and more than 50,000 active patients.
The moat is strongest where first-mover clinical data, three new resmetirom patents protecting into 2042 to 2045, labeling, specialist familiarity, manufacturing and supply execution, and EU expansion reinforce each other. It narrows if GLP-1 therapies or future MASH drugs match efficacy, convenience, access, or price.
The thesis fails if Rezdiffra demand slows, Novo Nordisk or other rivals take MASH share, payers cut net price, the F4C outcomes trial slips or disappoints, Europe reimbursement stays unresolved, safety or label issues emerge, cash burn forces dilutive financing, or valuation multiples compress before FY2027 profitability arrives.
Management converted a development-stage MASH story into a nearly $1.3 billion trailing-twelve-month commercial franchise, beat Q2 consensus, surpassed 50,000 patients, and built a 10+ program pipeline including an oral GLP-1 now in Phase 1, while still balancing launch investment, combination programs, and shareholder dilution.
MASH sits inside a long-term rise in metabolic disease, with the U.S. diagnosed F2/F3 patient pool growing from 315,000 to 460,000 in two years and only about 10% penetration. GLP-1 adoption may expand diagnosis while also competing for the same patient pool, and the F4C population could roughly double Rezdiffra opportunity.
MDGL is priced for continued high growth and the FY2027 profitability consensus. Margin of safety is limited if competition or reimbursement slows the path, but improves if patient growth stays elevated, operating losses shrink, and the F4C readout de-risks the next leg.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDGL price | $467.32 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 5.23% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.80 billion, computed as $467.32 x 23.10 million shares with a 0.05% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com share count | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Rezdiffra net sales | $364.3 million, up 71% year over year from $212.8 million | Madrigal Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net loss and EPS | $57.9 million net loss or $1.99 per share, inclusive of a $25.0 million one-time business development charge | Madrigal Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Active Rezdiffra patients | More than 49,000 patients on Rezdiffra as of June 30, 2026, surpassing 50,000 in July 2026 | Madrigal Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $838.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026 | Madrigal Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net loss | TTM revenue of about $1.28 billion (up 149%) and TTM net loss of about $325.1 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | FY2025 revenue of $958.4 million, up 432% from $180.1 million, with a FY2025 net loss of $288.3 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and Madrigal FY2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet net cash | Net cash of about $491 million, with $838.75 million cash and equivalents and $347.75 million total debt as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $682.93 across 17 analysts, low $543, median $653, and high $962 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 12 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 2 Hold, and 0 Sell out of 17 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of about $1.52 billion with adjusted EPS of -$6.49, and FY2027 revenue of about $2.14 billion with adjusted EPS of +$9.63 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 8.41x trailing sales, 6.07x forward sales, 20.61x book value, and EV/Sales of about 8.03, with a negative trailing PE | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 2.06 million shares short, 8.93% of shares outstanding, and 4.80 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $519.47, 20-day SMA near $537.97, 50-day SMA near $516.35, 100-day SMA near $509.43, 200-day SMA near $507.25, 14-day RSI near 32.89, and 14-day ATR near 5.72% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This MDGL AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, competition, regulation, reimbursement, clinical data, F4C trial timing, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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