Moelis & Company research snapshot
MC AI stock analysis reads Moelis & Company as a pure-play independent investment bank providing M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and strategic advisory services globally. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $67.08 from July 31, with a market capitalization near $5.44 billion. The MC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the outcome depends on M&A deal volume recovery, pipeline conversion, compensation ratio trends, and the valuation multiple the market assigns to advisory-focused investment banks. The company reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $409 million, up 12% year over year, a record first half, and an announced pipeline up over 80%, while the stock still trades about 14% below its 52-week high of $78.22 and analysts are split, with Morgan Stanley at Buy and UBS at Sell. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$67.08
Market cap
$5.44 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Improving independent advisory bank with record revenue and pipeline, strong capital return, but cyclical deal revenues and a high dividend payout ratio
Trend status
Above the 200-day moving average ($65.90), right at the 50-day moving average ($67.11), about 14% below the 52-week high of $78.22, with neutral momentum after record Q2 results
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Moelis is a pure-play independent investment bank focused on M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory. Founded by Ken Moelis in 2007, the firm built a top-tier restructuring practice and a growing mid-market and large-cap M&A franchise. It operates a capital-light model with no large balance sheet exposure, generating high returns on equity in good years but cyclical earnings. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from senior-level talent relationships, a respected brand in independent advisory, a strong restructuring practice, and an entrepreneurial culture that attracts top bankers. It is moderate because the advisory business has low switching costs for clients, and talent can leave to competitors like Evercore, PJT Partners, or Lazard. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Navid Mahmoodzadegan, a co-founder, and Executive Chairman and founder Ken Moelis lead a management team with strong industry relationships. The firm hired 12 lateral managing directors year to date plus 13 internal promotions, returned about $246 million to shareholders in H1 2026, and ended the quarter with $481 million of cash and no debt. Key tests are compensation discipline, talent retention, and pipeline conversion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $1.52 billion, up 27% year over year, with net income of $233 million. TTM revenue was about $1.57 billion, up 13.7%, with TTM net income near $228 million and free cash flow near $433 million. Q2 2026 revenue was a record $409 million, up 12%, and the adjusted compensation ratio improved to 65.8% from 69% a year earlier. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $67.08, MC trades at about 21.8x trailing PE, 3.46x sales, 9.82x book, and 12.56x price to free cash flow, with a forward PE near 18.8x. The analyst average target is $71.30, with a range of $60.00 to $86.00. The three-scenario model produced about $113 in the bull case, $75 in the base case, and $49 in the bear case, using EPS growth of 12%, 7%, and 0% respectively. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MC closed at $67.08 on July 31. The stock has a 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22. It rebounded from a June swing low near $61.33, sits right at the 50-day moving average of $67.11, and holds above the 200-day moving average of $65.90. RSI near 50 is neutral. Beta of 1.85 indicates above-market volatility. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for a mid-cap cyclical investment bank. Revenues depend on M&A, restructuring, and capital markets activity that fluctuate with credit markets, the economy, and CEO confidence. The dividend payout ratio is high at roughly 84% of earnings. Key-person risk exists from senior bankers who could leave for competitors. UBS downgraded the stock to Sell on valuation, citing overly optimistic expectations. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for company-reported financials, market cap, shares outstanding, dividend, revenue, and pipeline commentary. Medium for forward scenarios because deal volume recovery timing, compensation ratio trajectory, and MD hiring or retention trends are harder to project from public data alone. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Moelis is a well-run independent advisory firm with record revenue, a record pipeline, and improving margins, but the stock is cyclical and currently prices in continued improvement. A sustained advance depends on pipeline conversion and the M&A cycle continuing, which is hard to time. The 3.9% dividend yield provides some income support, but the payout ratio is high. | Medium |
MC AI stock forecast
The MC AI stock forecast uses EPS growth rates, target P/E multiples, and advisory fee cycle assumptions rather than a single price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if M&A volumes keep recovering, the announced pipeline converts into closed fees, revenue per MD improves, and the market applies a higher multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if deal volumes stall, sponsor M&A stays muted, or the stock rerates toward a lower multiple.
$100 to $120
More likely if M&A volumes keep recovering, the record announced pipeline converts into closed fees, revenue per MD improves, the compensation ratio stays near 65%, and the market applies about a 26x trailing PE. The verified model produced about $113 using 12% EPS growth and 26x PE.
$70 to $85
More likely if M&A volumes show moderate continued improvement, the pipeline converts at a normal pace, revenue and costs grow in line, and the stock trades near 20x trailing PE. The verified model produced about $75 using 7% EPS growth and 20x PE, broadly in line with the analyst average target near $71.
$42 to $52
More likely if deal volumes stall, sponsor M&A stays muted, margins are pressured by compensation costs, and the stock rerates toward 16x trailing PE or below. The verified model produced about $49 using 0% EPS growth and 16x PE.
MC AI technical analysis
MC AI technical analysis starts from the $67.08 July 31 close used for this August 3 static page. The stock trades in the lower half of its 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22 but has rebounded from a June swing low near $61.33. Price is essentially at the 50-day moving average of $67.11 and holds above the 200-day moving average of $65.90. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $67.08 | Latest verified close as of July 31, 2026, used for the August 3 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $64.00 to $65.90 | The 200-day moving average at $65.90 and recent July lows near $64 form the first support zone. Holding this area would keep the June rebound intact. |
| Secondary support | $61.33 to $63.00 | The late June swing low at $61.33 is the next downside support. A break below this level would extend the correction. |
| Major support | $51.06 | The 52-week low is the major downside support. A break below this level would mark a new low for the current cycle. |
| Near resistance | $68.80 to $70.50 | Recent July highs near $68.80 to $70.50 form the first resistance. A close above this zone would signal renewed strength. |
| Key resistance | $72.00 to $72.65 | The early July highs near $72.65 are the next resistance. A breakout above this zone would suggest a move toward the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $78.22 | The 52-week high is the top of the range. Reaching it would require a sustained recovery in M&A activity and a continued pipeline conversion. |
| 50-day moving average | $67.11 | Price is essentially at the 50-day moving average, a neutral positioning signal after the recent rebound. |
| 200-day moving average | $65.90 | Price is above the 200-day moving average, a longer-term constructive signal. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 | RSI near 50 is neutral. A sustained move above 60 would indicate stronger bullish momentum. |
| Volume | About 956,000 shares daily | 20-day average volume is near 956,000. Volume rose to about 2.76 million shares on July 31 following the Q2 report. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.85 | High beta means MC moves about 1.85x the broader market. Position sizing should account for this amplified volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $63.95, then $61.33 | A close below the July reaction lows near $64 weakens the support structure. A break below the $61.33 swing low would open the path to further downside. |
MC AI trading strategy
The MC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing that accounts for the high beta and cyclical nature, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for MC to close above the $68.80 to $70.50 resistance zone on rising volume, ideally with the stock holding above the 50-day moving average. A move above the early July high near $72.65 would confirm a higher-high structure. Until then, trend-following is not active because momentum is neutral.
Position sizing must account for the 1.85 beta. A failed breakout or daily close back below $64 should be considered a stop signal. A close below $61.33 invalidates the recovery thesis.
If MC pulls back toward the $64 to $66 area near the 200-day moving average on normal volume without fundamental deterioration, such as a flattening pipeline or weak league table position, a mean-reversion entry with a defined risk could be considered. The dividend yield near 3.9% provides a partial income offset to waiting.
Define maximum loss based on a close below $63.95 or, for a wider stop, the $61.33 swing low. Monitor quarterly revenue, announced pipeline commentary, and M&A volume indicators for signs of a cycle slowdown.
Track quarterly revenue, announced and total pipeline commentary on earnings calls, adjusted compensation ratio, managing director headcount, buyback pace, and restructuring market share. Pay special attention to M&A volume data and industry league table rankings.
Lower the rating if the pipeline flattens or declines, the compensation ratio rises, senior bankers leave, the dividend is at risk, or the firm loses restructuring market share to competitors like Evercore or PJT Partners.
Investment research summary
Moelis provides independent M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, and governments. It charges success-based fees for closed transactions, making it a high-ROE cyclical business with a capital-light model.
The moat is based on senior-level talent relationships, a respected advisory brand, a top-tier restructuring practice, and an entrepreneurial partner culture. It is moderate because clients hire the individual banker, not just the firm, and successful bankers can move to competitors like Evercore, PJT Partners, Lazard, or large banks.
The thesis can fail if M&A volumes stall, the record announced pipeline fails to convert into closed fees, key senior talent departs, compensation costs grow faster than revenue, or the market decides that the record Q2 results are not sustainable and rerates the stock to a lower multiple.
CEO Navid Mahmoodzadegan and Executive Chairman and founder Ken Moelis lead a firm that has invested heavily in talent, hiring 12 lateral managing directors year to date with 13 internal promotions. Capital allocation is disciplined: about $246 million returned to shareholders in H1 2026 through dividends and buybacks, with $481 million of cash and no debt at the end of Q2.
Management describes the M&A cycle as early innings, citing the need for scale, technology and AI disruption, sponsor portfolio monetization, and a more relaxed regulatory environment. Capital markets and private capital advisory are growing faster than M&A and added meaningful diversification in the first half, with a record announced pipeline up over 80% year over year.
At roughly 21.8x trailing PE and 3.46x sales, the stock prices in continued improvement. The three-scenario model gives a base case near $75, which is modest upside from the $67.08 price, and a bear case near $49 that highlights the cyclical risk. There is no wide margin of safety at the current price, so the risk reward depends on pipeline conversion and the M&A cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MC price | $67.08 close on July 31, 2026 | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.44 billion, verified as $67.08 x approximately 81.12 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and stockanalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $409 million, +12% year over year, record quarter | Moelis Q2 2026 earnings call, July 29, 2026 | July 29, 2026 |
| H1 2026 revenue | $729 million, +9% year over year, record first half | Moelis Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Announced pipeline | Up over 80% versus the prior year period, record total pipeline | Moelis Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.57 billion, +13.7% year over year | stockanalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $228.26 million (S&P Global) / $221.2 million (Yahoo) | stockanalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.08 (S&P Global) / $2.64 diluted (Yahoo) | stockanalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| Adjusted compensation ratio | 65.8% for Q2 and H1 2026 versus 69% in the prior year periods | Moelis Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash position | $481 million and no debt at the end of Q2 2026 | Moelis Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.60 annual, 3.88% yield, ex-dividend August 10, 2026 | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.85 (5Y monthly) | stockanalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $51.06 to $78.22 | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages | 50-day $67.11, 200-day $65.90 | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average target $71.30, range $60.00 to $86.00, 11 analysts | stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 21.77x trailing PE, 3.46x P/S, 9.82x P/B, 12.56x P/FCF, 18.10x EV/EBITDA, verified via financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and stockanalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
This MC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. This analysis covers a cyclical investment bank with deal volume dependency and a high dividend payout ratio; readers should conduct their own due diligence.
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