Moelis & Company research snapshot
MC AI stock analysis currently reads Moelis & Company as a pure-play independent investment bank providing M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and strategic advisory services globally. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $64.58 from July 8, with a market capitalization near $4.80 billion. The MC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the outcome depends on M&A deal volume recovery, restructuring cycle activity, revenue per managing director, compensation ratio trends, and the valuation multiple the market assigns to advisory-focused investment banks. The stock is down roughly 7% YTD and trades well below its February 2025 all-time high of $82.89, reflecting a sluggish M&A environment. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$64.58
Market cap
$4.80 billion
AI score
59 / 100
Rating
Independent advisory-focused investment bank with strong restructuring franchise, capital-light model, but cyclical deal revenues and high dividend payout ratio
Trend status
Below 52-week high of $78.22, YTD down approximately 6-8%, near 52-week low end of range with weak momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Moelis is a pure-play independent investment bank focused on M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and strategic advisory. Founded by Ken Moelis in 2007, the firm built a top-tier restructuring practice and mid-market M&A franchise. It operates a capital-light model with no large balance sheet exposure, generating high returns on equity in good years but cyclical earnings. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from senior-level talent relationships, a respected brand in independent advisory, a strong restructuring practice, and the ability to attract top bankers through an entrepreneurial culture. It is moderate because the advisory business has low switching costs for clients, and talent can leave to competitors like Evercore, PJT Partners, or Lazard. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Navid Mahmoodzadegan, a co-founder, leads a management team with strong industry relationships. Founder Ken Moelis remains actively involved. The firm has maintained its culture through multiple deal cycles. Key management tests are managing compensation costs, retaining talent during slow periods, and maintaining restructuring market share. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $1.53 billion against TTM net income of approximately $221-233 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $319.78 million with net income of $43.11 million. The firm has total cash of about $152.94 million against total debt/equity of 42.94%. ROE is strong at 41.77% but can swing dramatically with deal cycle. Profit margin is about 14.46%. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $64.58, MC trades at about 24.7x trailing PE, 3.56x sales, 10.47x book, and 3.41x EV/Revenue. The forward PE of about 20.8x suggests a modest improvement expected. The three-scenario model produced about $109 in the bull case, $71 in the base case, and $41 in the bear case, using EPS growth of 15%, 8%, and 0% respectively. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MC closed at $64.58 on July 8. The stock has a 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22 with an all-time high of $82.89 from February 2025. YTD return is roughly -7%. Beta of 1.85 indicates above-market volatility. The stock has weakened from its 2025 highs and trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for a mid-cap cyclical investment bank. Revenues depend entirely on M&A and restructuring deal volumes that fluctuate with credit markets, the economy, and CEO confidence. High dividend payout ratio may limit capital flexibility. Key-person risk from senior bankers who could leave for competitors. A concentrated business in advisory services makes it more cyclical than diversified banks. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for company-reported financials, market cap, shares outstanding, dividend, and revenue data. Medium for forward scenarios because deal volume recovery timing, compensation ratio trajectory, and MD hiring/retention trends are harder to project from public data alone. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Moelis is a well-run independent advisory firm with strong restructuring capabilities and a capital-light model, but the stock is highly cyclical and currently in a weak phase. A recovery depends on a broad M&A cycle upturn which is hard to time. The dividend yield over 4% provides some income support, but the payout ratio is high. | Medium-low |
MC AI stock forecast
The MC AI stock forecast uses EPS growth rates, target P/E multiples, and advisory fee cycle assumptions rather than a single price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if M&A volumes recover significantly, restructuring activity remains elevated, revenue per MD improves, compensation costs are well managed, and the market applies a higher multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if the deal environment remains sluggish, talent costs rise, or the stock rerates toward a lower multiple.
$95 to $115
More likely if M&A advisory volumes recover to historical trends, restructuring revenues remain strong, revenue per MD improves, the compensation ratio is well managed, and the market applies about a 26-28x trailing PE. The verified model produced about $109 using 15% EPS growth and 28x PE.
$65 to $80
More likely if M&A volumes show moderate improvement, restructuring stabilizes, revenue and costs grow in line, and the stock trades near 20-22x trailing PE with gradual improvement in operating metrics.
$38 to $48
More likely if M&A volumes remain depressed, restructuring activity declines, compensation costs pressure margins, and the stock rerates toward 14-16x trailing PE or below.
MC AI technical analysis
MC AI technical analysis starts from the $64.58 July 8 close used for this July 12 static page. The stock has traded between $51.06 and $78.22 over the past 52 weeks, with an all-time high of $82.89. The stock is in a downtrend from the February 2025 peak. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $64.58 | Latest verified close as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $60.00 to $62.00 | Round number support near $60. A test of this level would be consistent with the current weak momentum. |
| Secondary support | $51.06 to $55.00 | The 52-week low at $51.06 is the major downside support. A break below this level would mark a new low for the current cycle. |
| Near resistance | $68.00 to $70.00 | The area around $68-70 represents the declining 50-day moving average zone. A close above this level would be a first sign of stabilization. |
| Key resistance | $74.00 to $78.22 | The $78.22 52-week high and the declining 200-day moving average area. A breakout above this zone would suggest a trend reversal. |
| 52-week range | $51.06 to $78.22 | MC is in the lower half of its 52-week range, reflecting the sluggish M&A environment and weak price momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $72 to $75 | MC is trading below the 200-day moving average, confirming the longer-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI near 40 | RSI near 40 suggests bearish momentum but not yet oversold. Sustained RSI below 30 would indicate deeply oversold conditions. |
| Volume | About 937,000 shares daily | Average volume of about 1 million shares. Volume has been slightly below average, which is typical during consolidation phases. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.85 | High beta means MC moves about 1.85x the broader market. Position sizing should account for this amplified volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $60.00, then $51.06 | A close below $60 weakens the support structure. A break below the $51.06 52-week low would open the path to further downside. |
MC AI trading strategy
The MC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing considering the high beta and cyclical nature, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for MC to establish support above $60 and stage a breakout above the $68-70 resistance zone with increasing volume. A confirmed close above the declining 50-day moving average would be the first confirmation signal. The weak YTD momentum means trend-following is not recommended until a clear reversal pattern emerges.
Position sizing must account for the 1.85 beta. A failed breakout or daily close below $60 should be considered a stop signal. Given the current downtrend, this setup is not active until a reversal is confirmed.
If MC approaches the $55-60 area on normal volume without fundamental deterioration (e.g., loss of key bankers or share loss in restructuring rankings), a mean-reversion entry with a defined risk could be considered. The dividend yield above 4% provides a partial income offset to waiting.
Define maximum loss based on a close below $51.06. Monitor the investment banking fee pool data and M&A volume indicators for signs of a cycle bottom.
Track quarterly advisory fee revenue, restructuring market share, managing director headcount trends, compensation ratio, and dividend payout ratio. Pay special attention to M&A volume data, backlog commentary on earnings calls, and industry league table rankings.
Lower the rating if the firm loses senior bankers, compensation costs rise significantly, the dividend is cut, or the restructuring franchise loses market share to competitors like Evercore or PJT Partners.
Investment research summary
Moelis provides independent M&A, restructuring, capital markets, and strategic advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, and governments. It charges success-based fees for closed transactions, making it a high-ROE cyclical business with a capital-light model.
The moat is based on senior-level talent relationships, a respected advisory brand, a top-tier restructuring practice, and an entrepreneurial partner culture. It is moderate because clients hire the individual banker, not just the firm, and successful bankers can move to competitors like Evercore, PJT Partners, Lazard, or large banks.
The thesis can fail if M&A volumes remain structurally lower due to regulation or higher for longer interest rates, key senior talent departs, Moelis loses restructuring league table position, compensation costs grow faster than revenue, or the stock rerates to a lower multiple due to cyclical concerns.
CEO Navid Mahmoodzadegan and founder Ken Moelis have built a respected independent advisory firm with a strong culture. Moelis has grown from founding in 2007 through the financial crisis, establishing a top restructuring business. Key tests are talent retention, compensation discipline in a competitive market, and maintaining culture as the firm grows.
The independent investment banking industry benefits from the trend away from conflicts of interest at bulge-bracket banks and toward conflict-free advice. However, the industry is highly cyclical and dependent on M&A and restructuring activity. AI-related deal activity could be a positive catalyst, but the overall pipeline remains dependent on CEO confidence, financing markets, and the regulatory environment.
At roughly 24.7x trailing PE and 3.56x sales, the stock does not offer a clear margin of safety given the cyclical headwinds and current weak deal environment. A more attractive entry would require clearer evidence of an M&A cycle upturn or a lower entry price near the bottom of the cyclical valuation range. The 3-scenario model gives a base case near $71, suggesting limited upside from the current $64.58 price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MC price | $64.58 close on July 8, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.80 billion, verified as $64.58 x approximately 74,300,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 11, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.21 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.53 billion | Yahoo Finance financials | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $221.2 million (Yahoo) / $233.0 million (TradingView) | Yahoo Finance financials and TradingView (2.6% variance noted) | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $319.78 million | Yahoo Finance earnings data / TradingView | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $43.11 million | Yahoo Finance earnings data | July 11, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.57 (Yahoo) / $2.94 (TradingView basic) | Yahoo Finance and TradingView statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $152.94 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 11, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 42.94% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.60 annual, 4.03% yield | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.85 (5Y monthly) | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $51.06 to $78.22 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Analyst target (1-year) | $71.70 average, range $58.00 to $86.00 | Yahoo Finance analyst estimates | July 11, 2026 |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 41.77% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 24.66x trailing PE, 3.56x P/S, 10.47x P/B, 3.41x EV/Revenue, 17.97x EV/EBITDA, verified via financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 11, 2026 |
This MC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong. This analysis covers a cyclical investment bank with deal volume dependency and a high dividend payout ratio; readers should conduct their own due diligence.
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