Lazard, Inc. research snapshot
LAZ AI stock analysis currently reads Lazard as a storied independent financial advisory and asset management firm that is working through a difficult earnings phase. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, LAZ closed near $42.38 on July 31, 2026, with market capitalization around $4.13 billion. Q2 2026 reported on July 23 showed adjusted EPS of $0.12 versus a $0.42 consensus, driven by lower Financial Advisory revenue, higher operating costs, and an effective tax rate of 63.5%, while Asset Management revenue rose 23.4% and AUM reached $284.7 billion. The analysis supports scenario-based research rather than a certain price prediction because M&A advisory revenue, restructuring activity, asset management flows, the tax rate, and cost discipline can all move the outcome. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$42.38
Market cap
$4.13 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Established financial advisory and asset management franchise, but Q2 2026 earnings collapsed on higher costs and a 63.5% effective tax rate while Asset Management revenue and AUM growth offered support
Trend status
Price near the lower half of the 52-week range, below key moving averages, with a 100% sell technical opinion from Barchart
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lazard operates two segments: Financial Advisory (M&A, restructuring, capital raising, and strategic advice) and Asset Management (equity, fixed income, alternative, and private equity across global markets). Both benefit from the Lazard brand and client relationships built over more than 175 years. | High |
| Moat | The moat is rooted in brand reputation, senior banker relationships, cross-border expertise, and a deep restructuring practice. Switching costs exist for complex advisory mandates, but price competition from Evercore, PJT, Moelis, and large banks narrows the moat in standardized work. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Peter R. Orszag has cut more than 80 managing director roles to reposition the advisory business, added buyback capacity of $200 million in July 2026, and advanced the Campbell Lutyens and Elaia deals to grow private markets. Capital allocation includes a maintained dividend and expanded repurchases, but Q2 cost and tax execution was poor. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 adjusted net revenue was $786.5 million, up 2.2% year over year, but adjusted EPS fell to $0.12 from $0.52 on an effective tax rate of 63.5% and a 9.4% drop in Financial Advisory revenue. TTM revenue is about $3.2 billion, TTM net income is $219.03 million, and debt-to-equity is 225.80%. | High |
| Valuation | At 20.88x TTM EPS, 17.39x forward EPS, 4.72% dividend yield, and 1.39x P/S, LAZ trades near the low end of its 52-week range. The multiple is above where it traded in early 2026 partly because earnings fell, while the maintained dividend and a $257 million buyback authorization provide partial support. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price at $42.38 is near the lower half of the 52-week range of $38.67 to $58.75. Barchart rates the stock 100% sell with price below key moving averages. Support sits near $40.63 to $41.72 and resistance near $42.81 to $43.90, with Fibonacci retracement levels at $46.34, $48.71, and $51.08 above. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are M&A fee revenue cyclicality, an elevated effective tax rate that could persist, higher compensation and non-compensation costs, restructuring normalization, asset management fee pressure from passive investing, high debt-to-equity, key-personnel departures, and delays in the Lazard 2030 plan. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, segment revenue, AUM, balance sheet items, market cap, technical levels, dividend math, and analyst targets. Lower for forward returns because M&A cycles, capital markets activity, the tax rate, and asset management flows are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Lazard is a quality franchise with real cycle and cost risk. Investment certainty is low to medium at this price because the current valuation is supported by the dividend but earnings power depends on a recovery in advisory revenue, cost discipline, a normalized tax rate, and continued Asset Management growth. | Low to medium |
LAZ AI stock forecast
The LAZ AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a promise. Using a July 31, 2026 close near $42.38, forward EPS near $2.44, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $25 to $30, a base area near $44 to $50, and a bullish area near $70 to $78 before dividends. These outputs depend on M&A cycle recovery, cost discipline, a normalized effective tax rate, asset management flows, and the terminal earnings multiple.
$70 to $78
More likely if Financial Advisory revenue recovers as the Lazard 2030 plan matures, cost ratios improve after the managing director restructuring, the effective tax rate normalizes, Asset Management AUM keeps growing, and the market rewards LAZ with an 18-20x forward P/E multiple.
$44 to $50
More likely if Lazard grows EPS at a mid-single-digit rate, advisory revenue stabilizes, Asset Management fees grow with AUM, the tax rate returns to a normal level, and the stock trades near a 13-16x forward P/E, supported by the 4.72% dividend yield.
$25 to $30
More likely if M&A activity stays depressed, the elevated tax rate persists, operating costs keep rising faster than revenue, Asset Management sees net outflows, and the multiple contracts toward 9-11x earnings.
LAZ AI technical analysis
LAZ AI technical analysis reflects a stock that fell from a 52-week high of $58.75 and is now trading near the lower half of its range, close to the 52-week low of $38.67. As of the July 31, 2026 close at $42.38, price sits below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and Barchart rates the stock 100% sell with an average short-term outlook. Volume is below the roughly 2.13 million share average, and beta of 1.42 means the stock moves more than the market in either direction.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $42.38 | Yahoo Finance showed the July 31, 2026 close at $42.38, near the lower half of the 52-week range. StockAnalysis showed about $42.29 on August 3. |
| 52-week low support | $38.67 | The 52-week low from Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis. A break below this level would be a significant bearish signal. |
| Support zone | $40.63 to $41.72 | Barchart turning points put first to third support at $41.72, $41.07, and $40.63. Watch for buying interest in this zone. |
| Near resistance | $42.81 to $43.90 | Barchart turning points put first to third resistance at $42.81, $43.25, and $43.90, just above the current price. |
| Fibonacci 38.2% retracement | $46.34 | Barchart Fibonacci level between the 52-week low and high. A recovery above here would improve the near-term setup. |
| Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% retracement | $48.71 and $51.08 | Barchart Fibonacci levels. A move back toward $48.71 to $51.08 would require a material improvement in advisory revenue and capital markets conditions. |
| 52-week high | $58.75 | The 52-week high from February 2026. A recovery above this level would require a sustained rebound in M&A and earnings. |
| 50-day SMA | ~$43 to $44 | Estimated 50-day moving average given the June-to-July range of roughly $39 to $50. Price is near this level, so a clean break below would confirm weakness. |
| 200-day SMA | ~$47 to $48 | Estimated 200-day moving average. A close above this level would be needed to shift the longer-term trend toward neutral. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40, 100% sell opinion | Barchart technical opinion is 100% sell with an average short-term outlook. RSI below 50 points to bearish but not deeply oversold momentum. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.42 | Beta of 1.42 means LAZ is roughly 42% more volatile than the S&P 500. Barchart shows historical volatility near 43%, so position sizing should account for multi-dollar daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $38 | A decisive close below the $38.67 52-week low would invalidate any mean-reversion setup and suggest a new leg lower. |
LAZ AI trading strategy
The LAZ AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines business cycle evidence, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for LAZ to break and hold above the $46.34 to $48.71 Fibonacci zone on expanding volume, ideally supported by improving advisory backlog commentary from management, a normalized tax rate, and continued Asset Management AUM growth.
A failed breakout or a reversal back below the $42.81 level should invalidate the setup. Avoid chasing short-term momentum without trend confirmation given the 100% sell technical opinion.
If LAZ pulls back toward the $40.63 to $41.72 support zone without breaking the 52-week low, the 4.72% dividend yield provides a floor for patient holders. Compare price action with quarterly advisory revenue, the effective tax rate, asset management AUM trends, and cost ratio commentary.
If the stock closes decisively below $38, the yield support thesis is broken. Reduce exposure and wait for a lower base to form or for management to show cost and tax improvement.
Track Lazard quarterly revenue by segment, advisory backlog, restructuring mandates, Asset Management AUM and net flows, the effective tax rate, operating margin trajectory, the new $200 million buyback execution, debt levels, and dividend coverage ratio.
Reduce confidence if Financial Advisory revenue declines for three consecutive quarters, the effective tax rate stays elevated, Asset Management margins fall, or net debt rises relative to EBITDA. The Campbell Lutyens deal closing and Lazard 2030 progress are key catalysts to monitor.
Investment research summary
Lazard sells independent, high-stakes financial advice and asset management to corporations, governments, and institutions. Clients pay for the Lazard brand, senior banker expertise, cross-border reach, restructuring credibility, and a growing private capital advisory platform.
The moat comes from the Lazard brand (founded 1848), senior banker relationships, restructuring market leadership, and a global network across more than 40 cities. The moat is durable in complex advisory work but narrows in commoditized capital raising and asset management, where passive funds and price competition pressure fees.
The thesis fails if M&A activity stays structurally low, restructuring revenue normalizes, the elevated effective tax rate persists, top bankers leave after the managing director cuts, asset management AUM erodes from outflows, or the high debt-to-equity ratio becomes unmanageable in a prolonged downturn.
CEO Peter Orszag, a former OMB director and Citi executive, took the helm in 2023. In 2026 he cut more than 80 managing director roles, added $200 million to the buyback, and pursued the Campbell Lutyens acquisition to expand private capital advisory. Capital allocation includes a maintained dividend and tactical buybacks, but Q2 cost and tax execution was weak.
Lazard sits at the intersection of M&A advisory, restructuring, and asset management. The secular shift toward index investing pressures asset management fees. M&A is cyclical. Restructuring is counter-cyclical. The Lazard 2030 plan targets doubling revenue by 2030 and average annual shareholder returns of 10-15%, which depends on advisory recovery and private markets growth.
At roughly $42.38 and $4.13 billion of market value, LAZ trades at 20.88x trailing earnings and 17.39x forward earnings with a 4.72% dividend yield. The valuation implies the market expects earnings to stabilize from a depressed base. Margin of safety depends on advisory recovery, cost discipline, a normal tax rate, and the dividend providing a partial floor.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAZ price | $42.38 close on July 31, 2026; about $42.29 on August 3 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.13 billion, verified as $42.38 x ~97.5 million shares | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | ~97.45 million shares | StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.2 billion, up 5.1% | StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net revenue $786.5M, up 2.2%; adjusted EPS $0.12 vs $0.42 consensus | Zacks via Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $4.8 million attributable, down 91.3% year over year; effective tax rate 63.5% | Zacks and Private Banker International via Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Financial Advisory $445.3M, down 9.4%; Asset Management $331.3M, up 23.4% | Zacks via Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Assets under management | $284.7 billion at June 30, 2026, up 14.6% year over year | Lazard press release and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $219.03 million, down 26.8%; profit margin 7.09% | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and P/E | EPS $2.03, down 29.9%; trailing P/E 20.88x, forward P/E 17.39x | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/Book and Price/Sales | P/B 4.52x, P/S 1.39x | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.00 annual dividend per share, 4.72% yield; $0.50 quarterly with an ex-date of August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Lazard press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.1 billion cash, total stockholders equity $914.3 million, debt/equity 225.80% | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Zacks | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.99 billion, EV/Revenue 1.52x, EV/EBITDA 11.59x | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| ROE and profit margin | Return on equity 25.67% (ttm), profit margin 7.09% | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Share buyback | $200 million new authorization on July 22, 2026; about $257 million outstanding, expiring December 31, 2028 | Zacks via Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $38.67 to $58.75 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average target $47.13, range $40.00 to $60.00 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | KBW cut target to $42, BofA to $47 (Buy), Morgan Stanley to $44 (Underweight), Goldman Sachs raised to $40 (Sell) | StockAnalysis news and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Three-year framework: bear near $25 to $30, base near $44 to $50, bull near $70 to $78 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 4, 2026 |
This LAZ AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints.
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