Madison Air Solutions Corporation research snapshot
MAIR AI stock analysis currently views Madison Air Solutions as a newly public provider of commercial and residential air-quality systems with differentiated exposure to data-center cooling, but also with material leverage and a short public reporting history. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the $29.06 July 31 close and 501.72 million shares outstanding imply a verified market value of about $14.58 billion. Second-quarter 2026 net sales grew 20.9% to $991.3 million, the company raised its full-year sales outlook to $3,825 million to $3,925 million, and backlog reached $2,868.4 million, up 133% year over year. The MAIR AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a promised target, because execution, deleveraging, acquisition integration, data-center demand, margin stability, and valuation can change quickly. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$29.06 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$14.58 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Newly public air-quality platform with strong commercial growth and backlog, declining leverage, but residential softness, flat margin guidance, and unresolved internal-control weaknesses
Trend status
Below the 50-day moving average and near the post-IPO low after the July 30, 2026 earnings reaction, with no 200-day average yet
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Madison Air sells engineered commercial and residential air-quality systems, including cooling, air movement, filtration, ventilation, and related services through a portfolio of operating brands such as AprilAire, Big Ass Fans, Nortek Air Solutions, Nortek Data Center Cooling, and Reznor. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Specialized engineering, installed product bases, brands, distributor relationships, application know-how, and customer qualification can create switching costs, but the durability of pricing power remains unproven in public disclosures. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Jill Wyant led the second public quarter and raised the 2026 sales outlook on strong backlog and orders. The board faces remediation of material weaknesses, while Madison Industries control through Class B ownership remains a governance consideration. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net sales were $991.3 million, up 20.9%, with commercial organic growth of 22.3% and residential organic sales down 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was $265.8 million at a 26.8% margin. The company raised full-year sales guidance to $3,825 million to $3,925 million while keeping adjusted EBITDA guidance at $1,020 million to $1,065 million. | High |
| Valuation | At the $29.06 close, StockAnalysis shows 102.52x trailing P/E, 24.07x forward P/E, 3.89x sales, 3.99x book value, and 33.90x free cash flow. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 20.86x, and analyst targets average $42.10. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $29.06 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $37.62, with RSI at 27.69 and the price near the $27.38 post-IPO low set on July 30. A 200-day average is not yet available. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because debt, interest coverage, acquisition integration, construction and housing cycles, data-center project timing, material weaknesses, supplier costs, and a limited public float can affect both earnings and the multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-data confidence is medium because the company has a prospectus, two quarterly reports, analyst coverage, and market data. Forecast confidence is lower because the public record is still short. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The business has attractive commercial cooling exposure, but a margin of safety requires proof of organic growth, margin stability, deleveraging, cash conversion, and repeatable returns on acquisitions. | Low-medium |
MAIR AI stock forecast
The MAIR AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a precise prediction. A three-year financial_rigor.py model uses the $29.06 July 31, 2026 close and a $1.10 adjusted EPS proxy based on the consensus 2026 estimate. It produces anchors near $66.50 in a bull case, $36.60 in a base case, and $17.50 in a bear case. The adjusted EPS proxy is an estimate, not guidance, and should be refreshed after each result.
$58 to $68
More likely if data-center cooling and cleanroom wins keep converting into orders and revenue, organic commercial growth stays near 20%, residential demand stabilizes, leverage keeps falling, material weaknesses are remediated, and investors apply a premium multiple on a 20% adjusted EPS growth model.
$34 to $40
More likely if sales land inside the raised $3,825 million to $3,925 million guidance, adjusted EBITDA reaches $1,020 million to $1,065 million, residential organic sales recover, debt reduction continues, and the market applies roughly a 25x multiple to a 10% growth model.
$16 to $19
More likely if data-center or construction demand slows, backlog conversion disappoints, residential organic sales stay negative, interest expense constrains cash flow, margin guidance stays flat against higher sales, or material weaknesses and leverage concerns compress the multiple.
MAIR AI technical analysis
MAIR AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing price of $29.06 from the latest StockAnalysis market snapshot. The same snapshot listed a $37.62 50-day moving average, 27.69 RSI, 2.80 million share 20-day average volume, and a 52-week range of $27.38 to $44.50. MAIR has not traded long enough for a useful 200-day average, so refresh a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.06 | Closing price from the July 31, 2026 StockAnalysis market snapshot, not a live quote. |
| Immediate support | $27 to $29 | The $27.38 52-week low was set on July 30, 2026. The current price sits just above it, and the level is an observation point, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $24 to $25 | A projection below the post-IPO low. No confirmed price base exists under $27.38 because MAIR listed in April 2026. |
| Near resistance | $31 to $32 | The $31.64 close on July 29, 2026 now sits above the price and is the first recovery level after the post-earnings breakdown. |
| Upper resistance | $34 to $36 | The July trading range. Reclaiming it would signal recovery toward the 50-day moving average. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $37.62, 200-day unavailable | The 200-day measure is unavailable because the stock has only traded publicly since April 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI 27.69, oversold | The reported RSI was below 30, which can mark a short-term oversold extreme, but oversold readings do not guarantee a rebound. |
| Volume | 2.80 million shares, 20-day average | Trading spiked to 9.53 million shares on the July 30, 2026 earnings day. Compare any move through support or resistance with this participation reference. |
| Volatility | Elevated after earnings | A newly listed stock can reprice quickly as float, coverage, lock-up, earnings, debt, and material-weakness expectations evolve. |
| Invalidation | Sustained loss of $27.38 | A sustained break below the $27.38 post-IPO low would require a fresh fundamental review of demand, margins, leverage, and internal-control progress. |
MAIR AI trading strategy
The MAIR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It connects price behavior to Q3 results, commercial and residential organic sales, orders, backlog, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, debt, material-weakness remediation, and live technical data.
Monitor whether MAIR can reclaim the $31 to $32 zone and then the $34 to $36 area with volume above the 20-day average, while orders, backlog, commercial cooling growth, and margin performance support the raised 2026 outlook.
Treat a sustained loss of $27.38, a guidance cut, weaker commercial organic growth, or a setback in deleveraging as a reason to reassess instead of averaging down automatically.
If MAIR holds near $27 to $29 without a deterioration in orders, backlog, commercial organic growth, or free cash flow, compare the reset valuation with the base scenario and wait for price and volume stabilization.
Do not assume the $27.38 post-IPO low is a floor. Lower confidence if the decline coincides with slower data-center demand, weak residential channels, acquisition issues, or unresolved material weaknesses.
Track Q3 2026 results, the $3,825 million to $3,925 million sales outlook, adjusted EBITDA outlook, commercial cooling, residential organic sales, orders, backlog, cash flow, debt, interest expense, share count, and material-weakness remediation progress.
Reduce the rating if acquisition-led sales growth does not convert into organic growth, cash generation, or lower net leverage, or if margin guidance stays flat against rising sales.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Madison Air for engineered air-quality and thermal-management systems that support healthier indoor environments, energy efficiency, process control, asset protection, comfort, and productivity in commercial and residential applications.
Potential moat sources are specialized product engineering, applications expertise, brands such as AprilAire, Big Ass Fans, Nortek Air Solutions, Nortek Data Center Cooling, and Reznor, channel relationships, installed bases, and the cost of replacing a qualified solution. The evidence is still early because MAIR is newly public.
The thesis fails if a favorable data-center narrative obscures leverage, flat margin guidance, and cyclical demand. Construction can slow, residential channels can weaken, acquisition benefits can fade, material weaknesses can persist, and a high multiple can compress even with positive revenue growth.
Jill Wyant leads the company and has framed the strategy around growth, operational discipline, and the Return on Air proposition, and the company raised its 2026 sales outlook. The capital-allocation test is whether growth investments and acquisitions improve cash generation while debt declines. Madison Industries control and material-weakness remediation are governance considerations.
Data-center cooling, liquid cooling, energy resilience, health-focused indoor air, reshoring, and replacement demand are durable themes. Their benefit to MAIR still depends on project timing, customer capital spending, commercial construction, housing, technology choices, and competitive intensity.
At the $29.06 close, the trailing P/E of 102.52x reflects small reported GAAP earnings, while the forward P/E of 24.07x and EV/EBITDA of 20.86x are less extreme. The base scenario sits near the current price, so margin of safety depends on proving commercial organic growth, margin stability, deleveraging, and disciplined acquisitions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAIR price, shares, and market capitalization | $29.06 closing price on July 31, 2026, 501.72 million shares outstanding, and $14.58 billion market cap. Pineify financial_rigor.py verified price times shares at a 0.00% difference from reported market cap. | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| IPO and ownership structure | MAIR completed an IPO of 95.096 million Class A shares and a concurrent private placement of 3.704 million Class B shares at $27.00 on April 17, 2026, generating net proceeds of $2,584.2 million. Madison Industries Holdings owns all Class B shares following the organizational transactions. | Madison Air Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and segments | $991.3 million net sales, up 20.9%. Commercial sales were $658.9 million, up 23.8%, with 22.3% organic growth. Residential sales were $333.8 million, up 16.2%, with organic sales down 4.8%. | Madison Air Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Organic-growth and acquisition context | Q2 consolidated organic sales were $837.0 million and organic revenue growth was 14.1%, with acquisitions and divestitures contributing 6.6 percentage points. H1 organic growth was 12.9%, with commercial at 19.8% and residential at negative 3.4%. | Madison Air Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings, cash flow, and guidance | $70.5 million GAAP net income, $147.7 million adjusted net income, $265.8 million adjusted EBITDA, $98.6 million operating cash flow from continuing operations, $89.6 million free cash flow, and raised 2026 sales guidance of $3,825 million to $3,925 million with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1,020 million to $1,065 million. | Madison Air Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $261.8 million cash at June 30, 2026 and $3,053.7 million total debt, down from $5,650.4 million at December 31, 2025. Net leverage was 2.8x, down from 5.9x at year-end and about 3.0x immediately after the IPO. | Madison Air Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Backlog and orders | Backlog of $2,868.4 million at June 30, 2026, up 133.0% year over year and 32.7% versus December 31, 2025. Q2 orders were $1,331.4 million, up 45% on a combined basis, with Commercial orders of $997.0 million. | Madison Air Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation and technical inputs | 102.52x trailing P/E, 24.07x forward P/E, 3.89x P/S, 3.99x P/B, 33.90x P/FCF, 20.86x EV/EBITDA, $37.62 50-day average, 27.69 RSI, and 2.80 million 20-day average volume. No 200-day average was available. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Consensus rating of Buy from 12 analysts with an average price target of $42.10, a low of $33, and a high of $49 as of July 31, 2026. Multiple firms cut targets after Q2 results, including RBC Capital to $38, Baird to $45, Stifel to $41, and Wells Fargo to $46. | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Internal-control material weaknesses | The company reported material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting as of June 30, 2026 and previously restated its financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023. | Madison Air Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
This MAIR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available public data and assumptions, may be wrong, and should not replace independent research or professional advice.
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