Madison Air Solutions Corporation research snapshot
MAIR AI stock analysis currently views Madison Air Solutions as a newly public provider of commercial and residential air-quality systems with a differentiated exposure to data-center cooling, but also with material leverage and a short public reporting history. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the $36.25 reference price and 501.27 million shares outstanding imply a verified market value of about $18.17 billion. First-quarter 2026 sales grew 33.8% to $923.7 million, though acquisition effects were significant and residential organic sales declined. The MAIR AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a promised target, because execution, deleveraging, acquisition integration, data-center demand, and valuation can change quickly. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$36.25 reference price
Market cap
$18.17 billion verified market cap
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Early public air-quality platform with strong commercial cooling growth, material leverage, and limited public-market history
Trend status
Below the 50-day average after an April IPO, with no meaningful 200-day average yet
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Madison Air sells engineered commercial and residential air-quality systems, including cooling, air movement, filtration, ventilation, and related services through a portfolio of operating brands. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Specialized engineering, installed product bases, brands, distributor relationships, application know-how, and customer qualification can create switching costs, but the durability of pricing power remains unproven in public disclosures. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Jill Wyant led the first public quarter and highlighted growth and discipline. A key governance consideration is Madison Industries control through Class B ownership. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales were $923.7 million, up 33.8%, with commercial sales up 23.5% and residential sales up 59.8%. Acquisitions accounted for 21.2 percentage points of consolidated growth, while residential organic growth was negative 1.9%. | High |
| Valuation | At the $36.25 reference price, verified calculations show about 185.33x trailing EPS, 16.68x book value, and 39.12x free cash flow per share. These ratios depend on an early and evolving public-company data set. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The reference price was below the 50-day moving average of $39.52 and RSI was 44.44. A 200-day average is not yet available because MAIR started trading in April 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because debt, interest coverage, acquisition integration, construction and housing cycles, data-center project timing, supplier costs, and a limited public float can affect both earnings and the multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-data confidence is medium because the company has a prospectus, one quarterly report, and market data. Forecast confidence is lower because the listed history and public reporting record are short. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The business has attractive commercial cooling exposure, but a margin of safety requires proof of organic growth, deleveraging, cash conversion, and repeatable returns on acquisitions. | Low-medium |
MAIR AI stock forecast
The MAIR AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a precise prediction. A three-year financial_rigor.py model uses a $36.25 reference price and $0.94 adjusted EPS proxy based on Q1 2026 adjusted net income. It produces anchors near $61.70 in a bull case, $39.60 in a base case, and $20.50 in a bear case. The adjusted EPS proxy is not GAAP guidance and should be refreshed after each result.
$58 to $65
More likely if commercial cooling demand stays strong, data-center projects convert into revenue and cash, organic commercial growth remains healthy, leverage falls, acquisitions integrate well, and investors retain a premium 38x multiple on a 20% earnings-growth model.
$37 to $42
More likely if sales progress within the $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion 2026 guidance range, adjusted EBITDA reaches $1.02 billion to $1.065 billion, residential demand stabilizes, debt reduction continues, and the market applies a 30x multiple to a 12% growth model.
$19 to $23
More likely if data-center or construction demand slows, acquisition benefits fade, residential organic sales remain weak, interest expense constrains cash flow, integration costs rise, or investors value the business nearer a 20x multiple on a 3% growth model.
MAIR AI technical analysis
MAIR AI technical analysis uses the July 9, 2026 $36.25 intraday reference in the latest available StockAnalysis snapshot. The same snapshot listed a $39.52 50-day moving average, 44.44 RSI, and 1.878 million-share 20-day average volume. MAIR has not traded long enough for a useful 200-day average, so refresh a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.25 | Reference price from the July 9, 2026 StockAnalysis market snapshot, not a live quote. |
| Immediate support | $35 to $36 | The reference-price area is the first short-term level to monitor. It is an observation point, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $31 to $32 | StockAnalysis listed a $31.00 52-week low, which is effectively the post-IPO low range because MAIR listed in April 2026. |
| Near resistance | $39 to $40 | The 50-day moving average was $39.52 at the snapshot and is the first trend-recovery level. |
| Upper resistance | $44 to $45 | StockAnalysis listed a $44.50 52-week high. A break above it needs confirmation from volume and business results. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $39.52, 200-day unavailable | The 200-day measure is unavailable because the stock has only traded publicly since April 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.44, neutral to soft | The reported RSI was below 50 but not at a conventional oversold extreme. |
| Volume | 1.878 million shares, 20-day average | Compare any move through support or resistance with this recent participation reference. |
| Volatility | Short listed history | A newly listed stock can reprice quickly as float, coverage, lock-up, earnings, and debt expectations evolve. |
| Invalidation | Sustained loss of $35, then $31 | A sustained break below the reference area weakens the setup. A move below the post-IPO low range would require a fresh fundamental review. |
MAIR AI trading strategy
The MAIR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It connects price behavior to Q2 results expected August 14, 2026, commercial and residential organic sales, orders, backlog, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, debt, and live technical data.
Monitor whether MAIR can reclaim and hold the $39 to $40 50-day area with volume near or above the 20-day average, while commercial cooling growth, orders, and adjusted EBITDA support the 2026 outlook.
Treat a sustained loss of $35, a guidance cut, weaker commercial organic growth, or a setback in deleveraging as a reason to reassess instead of averaging down automatically.
If MAIR holds near $35 to $36 without a deterioration in orders, backlog, commercial organic growth, or free cash flow, compare the reset valuation with the base scenario and wait for price and volume stabilization.
Do not assume the $31 post-IPO low is a floor. Lower confidence if the decline coincides with slower data-center demand, weak residential channels, acquisition issues, or pressure on interest coverage.
Track Q2 2026 results, the $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion sales outlook, adjusted EBITDA outlook, commercial cooling, residential organic sales, orders, backlog, cash flow, debt, interest expense, and any share or lock-up changes.
Reduce the rating if acquisition-led sales growth does not convert into organic growth, cash generation, or lower net leverage.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Madison Air for engineered air-quality and thermal-management systems that support healthier indoor environments, energy efficiency, process control, asset protection, comfort, and productivity in commercial and residential applications.
Potential moat sources are specialized product engineering, applications expertise, brands such as AprilAire, Big Ass Fans, Nortek Air Solutions, Nortek Data Center Cooling, and Reznor, channel relationships, installed bases, and the cost of replacing a qualified solution. The evidence is still early because MAIR is newly public.
The thesis fails if a favorable data-center narrative obscures leverage and cyclical demand. Construction can slow, residential channels can weaken, acquisition benefits can fade, integration can disappoint, suppliers can raise costs, and a high multiple can compress even with positive revenue growth.
Jill Wyant leads the company and has framed the strategy around growth, operational discipline, and the Return on Air proposition. The capital-allocation test is whether growth investments and acquisitions improve cash generation while debt declines. Madison Industries control is a key-person and governance consideration.
Data-center cooling, energy resilience, health-focused indoor air, reshoring, and replacement demand are durable themes. Their benefit to MAIR still depends on project timing, customer capital spending, commercial construction, housing, technology choices, and competitive intensity.
The verified trailing ratios are elevated because reported GAAP earnings are small relative to the market value. The base scenario only supports a modest price change, so margin of safety depends on proving commercial organic growth, adjusted earnings conversion, deleveraging, and disciplined acquisitions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAIR price, shares, and market capitalization | $36.25 reference price, 501.27 million shares outstanding, and $18.17 billion market cap. Pineify financial_rigor.py verified price times shares at a 0.01% difference from reported market cap. | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| IPO and ownership structure | MAIR completed an IPO of 95.096 million Class A shares and a concurrent private placement of 3.704 million Class B shares at $27.00 on April 17, 2026. Madison Industries Holdings owns all Class B shares following the organizational transactions. | Madison Air Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and segments | $923.7 million net sales, up 33.8%. Commercial sales were $609.8 million, up 23.5%, and Residential sales were $315.6 million, up 59.8%. | Madison Air Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Organic-growth and acquisition context | Q1 consolidated organic revenue growth was 11.7%, with acquisitions and divestitures contributing 21.2 percentage points. Commercial organic growth was 17.2%; residential organic growth was negative 1.9%. | Madison Air Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings, cash flow, and guidance | $43.0 million GAAP net income, $233.4 million adjusted EBITDA, $57.8 million operating cash flow from continuing operations, $50.4 million free cash flow, and 2026 sales guidance of $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.02 billion to $1.065 billion. | Madison Air Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $228.6 million cash at March 31, 2026 and $5.649 billion pre-IPO total debt. The company said post-IPO transactions reduced total debt to $3.087 billion. | Madison Air Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM valuation and technical inputs | 185.35x trailing P/E, 16.68x P/B, 39.12x P/FCF, $39.52 50-day average, 44.44 RSI, and 1.878 million 20-day average volume. No 200-day average was available. | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Third-party TTM cross-check and limitation | StockAnalysis listed $3.57 billion TTM revenue, $92.9 million TTM net income, $229 million cash, and $5.79 billion debt. Revenue is directionally consistent with the Q1 annualized proxy, while net income is not directly comparable because the TTM includes pre-IPO periods and nonrecurring timing. | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This MAIR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available public data and assumptions, may be wrong, and should not replace independent research or professional advice.
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