Johnson Controls International plc research snapshot
JCI AI stock analysis currently reads Johnson Controls International as a higher-quality building systems, thermal management, energy efficiency, and decarbonization company benefiting from data center, healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and service demand. The stock closed at $140.62 on July 7, 2026, with market cap math verifying about $85.80 billion using 610.12 million shares outstanding. The business case is supported by Q2 fiscal 2026 sales growth of 8%, organic sales growth of 6%, 30% organic order growth, a $20.0 billion backlog, and raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $4.85. The caution is that the JCI AI stock forecast depends on sustained backlog conversion, margin expansion, buyback discipline, and a valuation multiple that does not reset lower.
Current price
$140.62
Market cap
$85.79 billion reported market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality building technology and thermal management compounder with strong backlog, solid free cash flow conversion, and valuation that already prices in better execution
Trend status
Constructive long-term trend above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, but short-term momentum cooled below the 20-day and near the 50-day average after a fast run
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Johnson Controls sells building controls, HVAC, fire, security, services, and digital building solutions that customers use to run energy-intensive facilities with higher reliability and lower emissions. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed base, service relationships, technical field coverage, project know-how, regulatory complexity, building integration depth, and trust in uptime-sensitive facilities. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Joakim Weidemanis is pushing operational execution, portfolio focus, productivity, and cost discipline after divestitures, with buybacks and dividends remaining key capital allocation tests. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue was $23.596 billion and net income to common was $3.291 billion; Q2 fiscal 2026 sales rose 8% to $6.1 billion while free cash flow reached $604 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $140.62, audited math shows about 25.2x TTM EPS, 6.6x book value, 31.5x free cash flow per share, 3.6x sales per share, and a 1.1% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock remains above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, but July technical data showed price below the 20-day average and near the 50-day average after reaching a 52-week high near $151.18. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Backlog and service demand support the thesis, but cyclicality, leverage, execution costs, competition from Trane, Carrier, Honeywell, Siemens, and Schneider, and valuation compression can hurt returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because current company and third-party data are available. Return confidence is lower because the bull case needs sustained organic growth and premium industrial multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | JCI screens as a quality industrial technology operator, not an obvious deep-value setup. Certainty improves if backlog converts to margin-accretive revenue and the stock holds the 100-day to 200-day trend zone. | Medium |
JCI AI stock forecast
The JCI AI stock forecast uses the $140.62 price reference, fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $4.85, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $107, a base value near $162, and a bullish value near $207 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$195 to $210
More likely if organic sales stay near or above 6%, the $20.0 billion backlog converts cleanly, data center and service demand remain strong, operating leverage holds near management targets, and the market awards JCI a low-30s earnings multiple.
$155 to $165
More likely if JCI compounds adjusted EPS at a mid-single-digit pace, keeps service revenue growing, protects margins, uses buybacks without stressing the balance sheet, and trades near a high-20s earnings multiple.
$100 to $110
More likely if commercial building demand slows, backlog conversion disappoints, pricing and productivity weaken, restructuring costs persist, debt concerns rise, or investors re-rate JCI toward a low-20s multiple.
JCI AI technical analysis
JCI AI technical analysis uses market and technical data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 close of $140.62 and a $85.79 billion market cap. TipRanks technical data showed RSI near 50.23, a 20-day simple moving average near $143.61, a 50-day simple moving average near $141.81, a 100-day simple moving average near $139.32, and a 200-day simple moving average near $126.77. The setup is a long-term uptrend with short-term consolidation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.62 | July 7, 2026 StockAnalysis close used for market cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $137.90 to $139.40 | TipRanks pivot data placed S1 near $137.90 and Fibonacci S1 near $139.40 at the July 2026 cutoff. |
| Moving average support | $139.32 | The 100-day simple moving average was near this level and is the first deeper trend support below the 50-day area. |
| Major support | $126.77 | The 200-day simple moving average remains the key long-term trend support if the correction deepens. |
| Near resistance | $142.09 to $144.94 | The classic pivot and R1 zone overlaps with the 20-day moving average area that short-term buyers need to reclaim. |
| Breakout resistance | $149.13 to $151.98 | TipRanks R2 and R3 levels sit near the recent 52-week high zone, making this the key upside confirmation band. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.23 | Momentum is neutral after a strong advance, so confirmation matters more than chasing a single session. |
| Volume | 3.6 million shares on July 7 | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume below the 50-day average, suggesting the pullback was not a high-volume capitulation. |
| Volatility | 52-week high near $151.18 | The stock closed about 7% below the July 1 high after a strong 2026 advance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $137.90 | A decisive close below first support would weaken the short-term trend-following setup and shift attention toward the 100-day average. |
JCI AI trading strategy
The JCI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend levels with backlog conversion, organic order growth, service revenue, margin leverage, adjusted EPS guidance, debt, buybacks, and valuation discipline.
Watch for JCI to reclaim the $142 to $145 zone, hold above the 50-day average area, and retest $149 to $152 while company updates confirm data center demand, service growth, and margin leverage.
A close below $137.90, weaker fiscal 2026 guidance, or evidence that backlog is not converting into profitable revenue should reduce trend-following confidence.
If JCI pulls back toward the 100-day average near $139 or deeper support without a change in backlog, cash flow, or guidance, compare the entry price with the audited base scenario and the stock own re-rated industrial multiple.
Do not treat a pullback as cheap if orders slow, service demand weakens, debt metrics worsen, or peers show broader building technology demand pressure.
Track organic sales growth, orders, backlog, service revenue, Americas margin, APAC growth, fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS near $4.85, free cash flow conversion, debt, share repurchases, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that JCI is an improved industrial technology story, but not an assured compounder at any price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Johnson Controls because large buildings need reliable thermal management, controls, fire, security, service, and energy optimization systems that reduce operating risk and energy waste.
The moat is built from installed base, service contracts, building integration depth, regulatory requirements, engineering know-how, field labor coverage, and trust in uptime-sensitive environments.
The thesis fails if backlog turns into lower-margin work, commercial construction slows, competitors take price, cost savings underdeliver, debt limits buybacks, or investors decide the data center narrative is already overcapitalized in the stock.
Joakim Weidemanis became CEO in 2024 and is being judged on operational execution, portfolio simplification, productivity, cost removal after divestitures, disciplined buybacks, and the ability to turn orders into durable cash flow.
Energy efficiency, building automation, data centers, healthcare facilities, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and emissions reduction are long-term demand drivers. The trend is favorable, but it still moves through capital cycles and project timing.
At $140.62, JCI is priced as a successful execution story. The margin of safety depends on backlog quality, organic growth near guidance, free cash flow conversion, and avoiding a reset from premium industrial multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JCI quote reference | $140.62 stock price at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis JCI balance sheet page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $85.80 billion calculated from $140.62 x 610.12 million shares, with 0.01% variance versus reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 610.12 million shares outstanding, down 5.57% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $23.596 billion, cross-validated against Macrotrends and StockAnalysis with 0.00% variance | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $3.291 billion, cross-validated against Macrotrends and StockAnalysis with 0.00% variance | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 sales and EPS | $6.1 billion sales, up 8%, organic sales up 6%, GAAP EPS of $0.99, and adjusted EPS of $1.19 | Johnson Controls Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Orders and backlog | Q2 organic orders up 30% year over year and backlog of $20.0 billion, up 26% organically | Johnson Controls Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $698 million cash and equivalents, $9.523 billion total debt, and $8.825 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Guidance | Fiscal 2026 guidance calls for organic sales growth near 6%, operating leverage near 50%, adjusted EPS near $4.85, and adjusted free cash flow conversion near 100% | Johnson Controls Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 25.2x TTM EPS, 6.6x book value, 31.5x free cash flow per share, 3.6x revenue per share, and 1.1% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI near 50.23, 20-day SMA near $143.61, 50-day SMA near $141.81, 100-day SMA near $139.32, and 200-day SMA near $126.77 | TipRanks JCI technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Business scope | Johnson Controls describes itself as a global leader in thermal management, building systems, energy efficiency, and decarbonization for data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and higher education | Johnson Controls investor relations overview | July 8, 2026 |
This JCI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Johnson Controls International securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, audited calculations, and assumptions that can be wrong. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
