Bullish case
$820 to $875
More likely if HVAC replacement demand normalizes, dealer inventories stay healthy, recent acquisitions add growth, 2030 margin targets look credible, and the market keeps assigning a premium industrial multiple.
Lennox International Inc. research snapshot
LII AI Stock Analysis
LII AI stock analysis currently reads Lennox International as a high-margin HVAC and climate-control company with durable dealer relationships, a premium residential brand, and improving Building Climate Solutions growth. The current LII AI stock forecast is not a single price prediction: verified July 2026 data shows the stock near $556.93, about 24.7x trailing EPS, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and dependent on replacement HVAC demand, refrigerant transition normalization, pricing discipline, acquisition integration, and free cash flow conversion. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$556.93
Market cap
$19.38 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality HVAC compounder with strong margins and brand durability, but valuation leaves limited room for housing, weather, channel, or acquisition execution misses
Trend status
Constructive above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the stock near the upper half of its 52-week range after a strong one-month rebound
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. LII has long public trading history, audited SEC filings, detailed company investor releases, third-party market data, technical data, and broad industrial analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is treating a strong brand and margin record as permanent. HVAC replacement demand is resilient, but channel inventory, weather, housing turnover, refrigerant transitions, tariffs, raw materials, and dealer activity can still move revenue and margin results.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, share count, FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, Q1 2026 results, 2026 guidance, segment mix, and basic technical levels. Medium for normalized growth because HVAC cycles and weather-sensitive replacement timing are hard to forecast from public data alone.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Lennox is a better business than the average industrial, but investment certainty is not high at a mid-20s earnings multiple unless 2026 demand recovery and 2030 margin targets stay on track.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lennox sells residential and commercial HVAC, refrigeration, parts, supplies, and services tied to comfort, air quality, energy efficiency, and replacement demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand, dealer relationships, product reliability, distribution density, installed base, replacement urgency, and scale in North American HVAC. | High |
| Management | CEO Alok Maskara has led since May 2022 and has pushed margin expansion, cost control, acquisition activity, and long-term 2030 targets. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 3% to $5.195 billion, but segment margin reached 20.4%; Q1 2026 revenue increased 6% and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to about 8% growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $556.93, verified math shows about 24.7x trailing EPS, 29.3x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 0.93% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart data shows LII above the 50-day moving average near $521.59 and the 200-day moving average near $510.29. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a quality industrial because valuation, housing softness, weather, inventory destocking, raw materials, tariffs, and acquisition integration can matter quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but return confidence is medium because HVAC demand normalization and valuation multiples can change faster than operating quality. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LII screens as a high-quality but valuation-sensitive HVAC compounder, not a cheap cyclical recovery trade. | Medium |
LII AI stock forecast
LII AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The LII AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed target. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $556.93 stock price, $22.55 trailing EPS, and a three-year model, the tested outcomes were about $340 in a bear case, $608 in a base case, and $855 in a bull case before dividends.
Base case
$585 to $630
More likely if EPS compounds in the mid to high single digits, 2026 guidance is met, free cash flow improves, and the valuation settles near the low-20s earnings multiple range.
Bearish case
$320 to $360
More likely if weak housing activity, mild weather, deferred replacement, price pressure, acquisition friction, or product cost inflation lowers EPS and compresses the multiple.
LII AI technical analysis
LII AI Technical Analysis
LII AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock last traded near $556.93 on July 8, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $521.59 and the 200-day moving average near $510.29, while the 52-week range was $434.06 to $689.44.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $556.93 | StockAnalysis and Robinhood reported LII near this level on July 8, 2026, with StockAnalysis showing market cap near $19.38 billion. |
| Near support | $541 to $550 | This area combines the 20-day moving average near $541.57 and the July 8 intraday low near $549.66. |
| Deeper support | $510 to $522 | The 200-day moving average near $510.29 and 50-day moving average near $521.59 define the main trend support band. |
| Near resistance | $568 to $571 | The previous close near $568 and analyst target reference near $571 create the first resistance area to test. |
| Upper resistance | $650 to $689 | The upper part of the 52-week range matters if the stock reclaims momentum after Q2 2026 earnings. |
| 50-day moving average | $521.59 | Barchart showed LII trading above this short-term trend marker, which supports a constructive but extended setup. |
| 200-day moving average | $510.29 | A hold above this longer trend marker keeps the technical trend positive. |
| Momentum | +14.7% above year-to-date average | Barchart showed LII above its year-to-date moving average, so momentum is improved but not risk-free. |
| Volume monitor | 437,760 50-day average shares | A breakout above the $568 to $571 area should be tested against average volume, not price alone. |
| Invalidation | Close below $510 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would weaken the trend-following setup. |
LII AI trading strategy
LII AI Trading Strategy Framework
The LII AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines moving averages with HVAC demand, channel inventory, guidance, margins, acquisition integration, and free cash flow monitoring.
Trend-following setup
Watch whether LII can hold above the $510 to $522 moving-average support band and then reclaim the $568 to $571 resistance area on healthy volume.
Treat a failed hold below $541 as a warning and a close below $510 as trend invalidation.
Mean-reversion setup
If LII pulls back toward $510 to $522, compare price action with Q2 2026 earnings, dealer inventory comments, housing and replacement demand, and free cash flow guidance.
Do not average down only because the brand is strong. The setup changes if management lowers EPS guidance or margins roll over.
Fundamental monitor
Track 2026 revenue growth near 8%, EPS guidance of $23.50 to $25.00, free cash flow guidance of $750 million to $850 million, segment margins, and 2030 targets.
Keep position size tied to evidence. A premium multiple needs steady execution, not just a quality narrative.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Lennox sells climate comfort, uptime, energy efficiency, and replacement certainty. Customers pay because heating, cooling, indoor air quality, refrigeration, and parts support are needs that often cannot be delayed when systems fail.
Moat
The moat is built on the Lennox brand, contractor and dealer relationships, product reliability, installed base, distribution reach, engineering knowledge, and scale purchasing. It is weaker where customers can switch to other HVAC brands through independent contractors.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if replacement demand is deferred, refrigerant transition benefits fade, channel destocking lasts longer, product cost inflation returns, tariffs pressure input costs, acquisitions disappoint, or premium valuation compresses.
Management
Alok Maskara became CEO in May 2022 after leadership roles at Luxfer and Pentair. The current management test is whether cost discipline, pricing, product mix, M&A, and free cash flow can support 2030 targets without hurting dealer trust.
Industry trend
Lennox participates in long-duration trends around energy-efficient HVAC, electrification, indoor air quality, refrigerant transition, building comfort, and emergency replacement. The trend is durable, but near-term results remain tied to housing, weather, and channel behavior.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $556.93, LII trades near 24.7x trailing EPS and 29.3x TTM free cash flow per share. Margin of safety depends on meeting 2026 guidance and making the 2030 revenue and segment margin targets credible.
Source-backed data
LII Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LII price | $556.93 on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $19.38B market cap, 34.80M shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.195B net sales | Lennox FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $805.8M net income | Lennox FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment mix | $3.343B Home Comfort Solutions, $1.852B Building Climate Solutions | Lennox FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $1.1B revenue, $3.35 GAAP diluted EPS | Lennox Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | About 8% revenue growth, $23.50 to $25.00 EPS, $750M to $850M free cash flow | Lennox Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2030 targets | $6.5B to $7.5B revenue, 22% to 23% segment margins, more than 90% FCF conversion | Lennox 2026 Investor Day release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA $521.59, 200-day MA $510.29, 52-week range $434.06 to $689.44 | Barchart and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Business segments | Home Comfort Solutions and Building Climate Solutions | Lennox FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This LII AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong.