Lennox International Inc. research snapshot
LII AI stock analysis currently reads Lennox International as a high-margin HVAC and climate-control company with durable dealer relationships and a premium residential brand, but the near-term picture weakened sharply in late July 2026. Verified August 2026 data shows the stock near $415.88, down about 20.2% on July 29 after second-quarter results missed expectations and full-year EPS guidance was cut to $23.00 to $24.00 from $23.50 to $25.00. The stock now sits below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with an RSI near 22, while residential demand stays soft and the Building Climate Solutions segment carries the growth. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$415.88
Market cap
$14.37 billion
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
High-quality HVAC and climate company now trading near its 52-week low after a second-quarter 2026 earnings miss and a full-year EPS guidance cut, with the stock below every major moving average
Trend status
Bearish after the July 29, 2026 guidance cut, with the stock below the 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages and an RSI near 22, deep in oversold territory
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lennox sells residential and commercial HVAC, refrigeration, parts, supplies, water heating, and services tied to comfort, air quality, energy efficiency, and replacement demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand, dealer relationships, product reliability, distribution density, installed base, replacement urgency, and scale in North American HVAC. | High |
| Management | CEO Alok Maskara has led since May 2022. He keeps pushing margin discipline and acquisition growth, but the July 2026 guidance cut puts the 2026 earnings path under closer scrutiny. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 3% to $1.5 billion and GAAP EPS was flat at $7.72, but full-year EPS guidance was cut to $23.00 to $24.00 while Building Climate Solutions grew 24%. | High |
| Valuation | At $415.88, verified math shows about 18.5x trailing EPS, 19.5x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 1.31% dividend yield, a much lower multiple than earlier in 2026. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart data shows LII below the 50-day moving average near $525.44 and the 200-day moving average near $509.28, with the stock close to the 52-week low of $411.41. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated after the guidance cut because residential demand, weather, channel inventory, raw materials, tariffs, and acquisition integration can move results quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but return confidence is medium-low because the earnings path was reduced and a housing or replacement recovery is unconfirmed. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LII screens as a high-quality HVAC business facing a lowered 2026 outlook and a broken technical trend, not a confirmed recovery trade yet. | Medium-low |
LII AI stock forecast
The LII AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed target. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $415.88 stock price, roughly $22.51 trailing EPS, the revised $23.00 to $24.00 EPS guidance, and a three-year model, the tested outcomes were about $325 in a bear case, $465 in a base case, and $630 in a bull case before dividends.
$590 to $670
More likely if residential demand stabilizes, emergency replacement and parts attachment keep growing, Building Climate Solutions momentum continues, acquisitions integrate well, and the market reassigns a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$435 to $500
More likely if EPS lands near the revised guidance, free cash flow holds in the $750 million to $850 million range, and the stock stays near a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple.
$290 to $355
More likely if weak housing activity, mild weather, deferred replacement, price pressure, acquisition friction, or product cost inflation lowers EPS again and keeps the multiple compressed.
LII AI technical analysis
LII AI technical analysis turned bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $415.88 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day moving average near $470.96, the 20-day near $527.37, the 50-day near $525.44, and the 200-day near $509.28, while the 52-week range was $411.41 to $621.90.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $415.88 | StockAnalysis reported LII near this level on July 31, 2026, with market cap near $14.37 billion. |
| Near support | $411 to $417 | The 52-week low near $411.41 sits just below the current price and is the first level to defend. |
| Deeper support | $380 to $400 | If the 52-week low fails, the $380 to $400 area becomes the next measured downside zone. |
| Near resistance | $434 to $471 | The July 29 close near $434 and the 5-day moving average near $471 form the first resistance band. |
| Trend resistance | $508 to $527 | The 100-day moving average near $508, 200-day near $509, and 50-day near $525 mark the broken trend zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $525.44 | Barchart shows LII below this marker, which is a bearish sign until the stock reclaims it. |
| 200-day moving average | $509.28 | A close back above this level is needed before the longer-term trend can be called constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 22 | The 14-day RSI was about 22.3, an oversold reading that can allow bounces but does not confirm a turn. |
| Volume monitor | Spike on July 29 | Volume jumped when the stock fell 20.2%, so any rally attempt should be tested against that surge. |
| Invalidation | Close below $411 | A decisive break below the 52-week low near $411 would signal further downside in the trend setup. |
LII AI trading strategy
The LII AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines moving averages with the revised EPS guidance, residential demand, channel inventory, tariff refund timing, and free cash flow monitoring.
Watch whether LII can reclaim the $434 to $471 band first, then the $508 to $527 broken trend zone, with the 52-week low near $411 as the floor.
Treat a close below $411 as trend invalidation and a failed rally under $471 as a sign the selling is not done.
If LII holds the $411 to $417 support after the oversold RSI reading, compare any bounce with Q3 earnings, residential demand comments, and free cash flow progress.
Do not average down only because the brand is strong. The setup weakens if management cuts EPS guidance again or margins roll over.
Track the revised EPS guidance of $23.00 to $24.00, free cash flow guidance of $750 million to $850 million, Building Climate Solutions growth, and tariff refund timing.
Keep position size tied to evidence. A beaten-down multiple needs confirmation that residential demand has stopped falling.
Investment research summary
Lennox sells climate comfort, uptime, energy efficiency, and replacement certainty. Customers pay because heating, cooling, indoor air quality, refrigeration, water heating, and parts support are needs that often cannot be delayed when systems fail.
The moat is built on the Lennox brand, contractor and dealer relationships, product reliability, installed base, distribution reach, engineering knowledge, and scale purchasing. It is weaker where customers can switch to other HVAC brands through independent contractors.
The thesis fails if residential replacement stays weak, tariff refund benefits fade, channel destocking lasts longer, product cost inflation returns, acquisitions disappoint, or the stock keeps losing the moving-average trend.
Alok Maskara became CEO in May 2022 after leadership roles at Luxfer and Pentair. The current management test is whether cost discipline, commercial momentum, acquisitions, and free cash flow can offset the residential drag that forced the July 2026 guidance cut.
Lennox participates in long-duration trends around energy-efficient HVAC, electrification, indoor air quality, refrigerant transition, building comfort, and emergency replacement. The trend is durable, but near-term results remain tied to housing, weather, and channel behavior.
At $415.88, LII trades near 18.5x trailing EPS and 19.5x TTM free cash flow per share. Margin of safety is better than in mid-2026 only if the revised guidance holds and residential demand stops deteriorating.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LII price | $415.88 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | July 31, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $14.37B market cap, 34.56M shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $1.5B revenue, $7.72 GAAP diluted EPS | Lennox Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segments | Home Comfort Solutions $936M down 7%, Building Climate Solutions $610M up 24% | Lennox Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | About 8% revenue growth, $23.00 to $24.00 EPS, $750M to $850M free cash flow | Lennox Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $5.195B revenue, $805.8M net income | StockAnalysis financials | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $5.30B, net income $788.5M, free cash flow $738.7M, gross margin 33.3% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA $525.44, 200-day MA $509.28, 52-week range $411.41 to $621.90, RSI 22.3 | Barchart and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 17 analysts, average Buy rating, average target $511.15, range $450 to $609 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Acquisition activity | Agreement to acquire Heat Controller signed June 18, 2026, adding Comfort-Aire and Century brands | Lennox press release | June 18, 2026 |
This LII AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong.
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