Liberty Latin America Ltd. 9% Cumulative Preferred Series A research snapshot
LILAP AI stock analysis covers the 9.0% Fixed Rate Cumulative Perpetual Redeemable Series A Preference Shares of Liberty Latin America Ltd., a telecommunications holding company operating across roughly 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean under brands including FLOW, VTR, BTC, Cabletica, UTS, Movil, and Liberty Puerto Rico. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, LILAP traded near $20.23 with a market capitalization near $3.26 billion for the preferred shares. The underlying business generated $4.44 billion in FY2025 revenue and $908.5 million in EBITDA but reported a net loss of $611.2 million. The most recent balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 carries $8.88 billion in total debt versus $681.4 million in cash. The preferred shares pay a 9.0% cumulative fixed dividend on a $25 par value and have traded since their when-issued listing on June 1, 2026. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$20.23
Market cap
$3.26 billion
AI score
38 / 100
Rating
High-yield preferred on a leveraged telecom operator with negative tangible equity and a short trading history
Trend status
Recovered from the July low near $18.45 to $20.23, still below the $25 par value and the $21.16 50-day average, moderate volatility
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Liberty Latin America operates telecom networks across LatAm and the Caribbean, generating $4.44 billion in revenue and $908.5 million in EBITDA in FY2025, but reported a net loss of $611.2 million. Q1-2026 revenue was $1.08 billion with EBITDA of only $63.4 million, showing near-term pressure. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from fiber and subsea cable infrastructure across roughly 40 markets, incumbency in small island nations, and spectrum licenses. Scale advantages exist in some markets, but competition from regional players and high capital intensity limit the moat width. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Balan Nair has led the company since its 2018 spin-off from Liberty Global. Management executed network investments and cost programs, but the balance sheet remains highly leveraged with total debt of $8.88 billion against total equity of only $1.02 billion at March 31, 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue of $4.44 billion and EBITDA of $908.5 million reflect a mature telecom operator, but EBITDA declined from $1.55 billion in FY2023. Net losses continue from interest costs on the debt load, and Q1-2026 EBITDA fell to $63.4 million. Free cash flow of $305.9 million in FY2025 provides partial coverage for the preferred dividend. | High |
| Valuation | At $20.23, the preferred shares trade at about 19% below the $25 par value, offering an 11.1% current yield. Company net debt to EBITDA is near 9x on FY2025 EBITDA and about 11.7x on trailing twelve-month EBITDA. The discount to par reflects balance sheet risk. | Medium |
| Technical trend | LILAP has traded since June 1, 2026. The price fell from the $29.40 high to $18.45 in late July, then recovered to $20.23. It sits below the $21.16 50-day average. Average daily volume is roughly 300,000 shares, which can thin out during stress periods. | Low |
| Risk level | High risk. Key risks include the $8.20 billion net debt position at March 31, 2026, negative tangible equity of -$3.70 billion, a net loss position, foreign exchange exposure in LatAm markets, and the risk that cumulative preferred dividends could be deferred in a liquidity stress. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for underlying business financials and the debt structure. Low for preferred stock price forecasts given roughly two months of trading history. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low. A high yield on a preferred stock with a leveraged underlying business and a very recent listing requires significant margin of safety. | Low |
LILAP AI stock forecast
The LILAP AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $20.23 cutoff price. LILAP is a preferred stock whose price is driven by the interaction between the $25 par value, the 9% cumulative dividend, and the credit quality of Liberty Latin America as the issuer. The forecast does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price for a security with about two months of trading.
$24 to $29
More likely if Liberty Latin America reverses the Q1-2026 EBITDA weakness, improves interest coverage, shows a path toward net profitability, the preferred dividend is confirmed as sustainable, and investor demand for yield supports a price near or above the $25 par value.
$18 to $22
Plausible if the company continues generating EBITDA in the $900 million area and positive free cash flow, net losses persist but the preferred dividend is paid as cumulative, and the stock trades at a discount to par reflecting the leveraged balance sheet.
$11 to $16
More likely if the Q1-2026 EBITDA decline continues, liquidity tightens, the cumulative preferred dividend is deferred, or broader credit market stress reduces demand for preferred securities. A move toward the $11.19 all-time low would signal severe stress.
LILAP AI technical analysis
The LILAP AI technical analysis is limited by the short trading history since the when-issued listing on June 1, 2026. The stock moved from an all-time high of $29.40 to a low of $18.45, then back to $20.23, establishing a range but still providing limited price data for reliable moving average or momentum analysis.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.23 | Latest verified close on August 3, 2026 used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff from FMP. |
| Near support | $18.45 to $18.90 | The July low zone where the stock found buying interest between July 20 and July 24, 2026. A close below this area would signal renewed downside risk. |
| Secondary support | $11.19 | The all-time low set on June 1, 2026 during initial when-issued trading. A break below this level would signal severe stress on the credit thesis. |
| Near resistance | $20.50 to $21.75 | The late June and late July high area. A move above this band would suggest the recovery from the July low is gaining traction. |
| Par value | $25.00 | The stated par value of the preferred shares. Above this level, the current yield falls below the 9% coupon rate. |
| All-time high | $29.40 | Set on June 5, 2026 during early when-issued trading. Reaching this level again would require improved credit sentiment. |
| 50-day average | $21.16 | The current price sits below this average, which is a neutral-to-cautious signal until the price reclaims it. |
| Volume | About 300,000 shares average | Average daily volume since listing. Volume on August 3, 2026 was about 109,000 shares. Volume spikes on down days suggest distribution risk. |
| Volatility | Elevated to moderate | The stock moved from $11.19 to $29.40 and back to the $18.45 to $20.23 area in two months. Volatility has moderated since late July. |
| Invalidation | Close below $18.45 | A new post-listing low below the July support would signal that the preferred shares are repricing for a potential dividend deferral or restructuring risk. |
LILAP AI trading strategy
The LILAP AI trading strategy framework focuses on yield-based analysis for this preferred stock, given its short trading history. The primary considerations are the sustainability of the 9% cumulative dividend, the price relative to the $25 par value, and balance sheet risk. This is not personalized advice.
Evaluate LILAP primarily on dividend coverage and balance sheet fundamentals. With an 11.1% current yield at $20.23, the entry should account for whether Liberty Latin America can sustain the free cash flow needed to service roughly $8.9 billion in total debt and pay the cumulative preferred dividend.
Reduce position if the company reports weakening EBITDA, rising net debt, or a declining cash balance. Monitor the next earnings report for dividend coverage updates, expected in early August 2026.
If LILAP drops toward the $18.45 to $20.00 area without a change in the underlying business, the yield would rise toward 11.3% to 12.2%, potentially attracting yield-seeking buyers. Entry should only be on confirmed company-level stability.
Set a maximum position size because preferred stocks in leveraged companies can gap down on bad news. Avoid averaging down unless the balance sheet thesis is confirmed.
If Liberty Latin America shows a clear path to interest coverage improvement and net income stabilization, LILAP could trade back toward the $25 par value. Monitor EBITDA trends, net debt reduction, and currency stability in key markets.
Periodically reassess the credit profile. If net debt continues rising or operating cash flow declines, the convergence thesis weakens and the position should be reduced.
Investment research summary
Liberty Latin America is a holding company that provides fixed-line, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services across roughly 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The business generated $4.44 billion in FY2025 revenue from residential broadband, video, telephony, and mobile services plus enterprise connectivity and data center solutions, with gross margin near 67%.
The primary moat is the fiber and subsea cable infrastructure connecting roughly 40 markets across the region. Incumbency in smaller Caribbean markets provides some competitive protection, but the industry is capital-intensive with moderate switching costs. The moat is narrow to moderate and requires continuous capital reinvestment.
The thesis fails if: (1) net debt of $8.20 billion at March 31, 2026 proves unsustainable as interest costs consume operating cash flow, (2) the Q1-2026 EBITDA decline to $63.4 million becomes a trend, (3) currency devaluations in LatAm markets reduce USD-reported revenue and EBITDA, (4) the preferred dividend is deferred or restructured, or (5) the goodwill-heavy balance sheet suffers further impairment.
CEO Balan Nair has led the company since its 2018 spin-off from Liberty Global. The management team has executed network modernization and cost reduction programs. However, the balance sheet remains highly leveraged with total debt of $8.88 billion against total equity of only $1.02 billion at March 31, 2026. Capital allocation is constrained by debt service and capex requirements.
Telecommunications in Latin America and the Caribbean is a mature, capital-intensive industry with moderate growth driven by data demand and mobile penetration. The shift from traditional voice and video to data services creates both opportunity and investment requirements. Currency volatility and regulatory risks are structural headwinds for USD-denominated returns.
At $20.23, the preferred shares offer an 11.1% current yield, about 19% below the $25 par value. Company net debt to EBITDA is near 9x on FY2025 EBITDA and about 11.7x on trailing twelve-month EBITDA, reflecting the debt load. The margin of safety depends on the sustainability of the cumulative preferred dividend and the company ability to service its debt.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LILAP share price | $20.23 close (August 3, 2026) | Financial Modeling Prep profile API | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.26 billion (preferred shares) | Financial Modeling Prep profile API | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.44 billion | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | -$611.2 million | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 EBITDA | $908.5 million | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $305.9 million | FMP cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1-2026 revenue | $1.08 billion | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1-2026 EBITDA | $63.4 million | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1-2026 net income | -$22.7 million | FMP income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $8.88 billion (March 31, 2026) | FMP balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $681.4 million (March 31, 2026) | FMP balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Net debt | $8.20 billion (March 31, 2026) | FMP balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Tangible book value | -$3.70 billion (negative) | FMP balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Net debt to EBITDA | ~9x (FY2025); ~11.7x (TTM) | Calculated from FMP balance sheet and income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Preferred dividend rate | 9.0% fixed cumulative on $25 par ($2.25/share/year) | FMP profile and prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Current yield at price | ~11.1% ($2.25 / $20.23) | Calculated from price and dividend terms | August 4, 2026 |
| Since-listing range | $11.19 - $29.40 | FMP profile and TradingView | August 4, 2026 |
| 50-day average price | $21.16 | Financial Modeling Prep quote API | August 4, 2026 |
| Listing date | June 1, 2026 (when-issued); regular trading from mid-June 2026 | FMP profile IPO date and historical price | August 4, 2026 |
This page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on publicly available data and reasonable assumptions as of the data cutoff date; actual outcomes may differ materially. Preferred stock investments carry credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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