CSW Industrials, Inc. research snapshot
CSW AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads CSW Industrials as a high-quality niche industrial compounder with record momentum and a premium valuation. The stock closed at $318.93 on July 31, 2026, up 1.86% on the day, after jumping roughly 10% in the week following the July 30, 2026 Q1 FY2027 report, with a market capitalization near $5.20 billion re-verified as $318.93 times 16.29 million shares outstanding. The Q1 FY2027 report, for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, delivered all-time record revenue of $350.6 million up 33%, record adjusted EBITDA of $101.6 million up 48% with a 29.0% margin, record adjusted EPS of $3.84 up 35%, record operating cash flow of $75.6 million, and consolidated organic revenue growth of 5.3%, led by 5.9% in Contractor Solutions and 16.5% in Specialized Reliability Solutions. The stock trades above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $299.46, $286.86, $279.34, $276.61, and $280.34, with a 14-day RSI near 63.24. The offset is a premium multiple near 43.8x trailing earnings and 24.7x forward earnings, plus roughly $855 million of debt that pushed FY2026 GAAP EPS down to $6.70 from $8.38 even as revenue hit $1.08 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$318.93
Market cap
$5.20 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Record momentum at a premium multiple
Trend status
Bullish, trading above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a record Q1 FY2027 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CSW sells niche, value-added products into HVAC/R, plumbing, electrical, general industrial, architecturally-specified building products, energy, mining, and rail end markets, with performance and reliability as the two commonalities. Q1 FY2027 delivered record revenue of $350.6 million with a 29.0% adjusted EBITDA margin. | High |
| Moat | Branded products (RectorSeal, MARS, Aspen, Balco, Jet-Lube, Whitmore), specification-driven adoption, installer habits, distribution channel relationships, and consumable pull-through create switching costs, but the moat is narrower against larger industrial distributors and manufacturers. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Joseph B. Armes has deployed about $1.0 billion into five accretive acquisitions since May 2025, raised MARS Parts synergies to $13 million from $10 million, hit the 30% EBITDA target for MARS early, returned $28.4 million to shareholders in the quarter, and cut net leverage from 2.55x to 2.37x. | High |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 33% to $350.6 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 48% to $101.6 million, adjusted EPS rose 35% to $3.84, and operating cash flow hit a record $75.6 million, with 5.3% consolidated organic growth. But FY2026 GAAP EPS fell to $6.70 from $8.38 as interest expense and intangible amortization from acquisitions weighed on reported earnings. | High |
| Valuation | At $318.93, CSW trades near 43.8x trailing earnings, 24.7x forward earnings, and 36x trailing free cash flow, a premium that requires sustained double-digit EPS growth. Analyst price targets range from $304 to $400 with a $342.57 average. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $299.46, $286.86, $279.34, $276.61, and $280.34, with a 14-day RSI near 63.24 and positive directional index above negative, after a roughly 10% post-earnings jump. The 52-week high of $337.02 is the main overhead. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include premium valuation compression, about $855 million of debt and rising interest expense, raw material and freight inflation, tariff exposure, thin trading liquidity near 165K shares of average daily volume, high 14-day historical volatility near 81%, founder and key-person reliance, and acquisition integration risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 FY2027 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because demand, input costs, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low at $318.93. The business quality and execution are above average for a small-cap industrial, but the starting price leaves limited margin of safety. | Medium-low |
CSW AI stock forecast
The CSW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $318.93 reference price and the FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS of $12.03. The three-scenario framework places a bearish area near $240 to $280, a base area near $340 to $380, and a bullish area near $400 to $450 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of roughly 3%, 10%, and 14% and exit multiples of 20x, 22x, and 25x. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and current analyst targets range from $304 to $400 with a $342.57 average.
$400 to $450
More likely if organic revenue growth stays near 10% or above, Contractor Solutions keeps expanding margins, MARS and Aspen synergies exceed the $13 million target, the Greco exit completes cleanly, and the market sustains a premium multiple near 25x forward earnings.
$340 to $380
More likely if CSW compounds adjusted EPS in the low double digits near the 11.97% three-year consensus, adjusted EBITDA margins hold in the high 20s, deleveraging continues, and the stock trades near 22x forward earnings.
$240 to $280
More likely if summer and replacement demand disappoints, raw material or freight inflation outruns pricing, acquisition integration stumbles, interest expense keeps depressing GAAP EPS, or investors reprice the stock closer to 20x earnings as growth normalizes.
CSW AI technical analysis
CSW AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $318.93 on July 31, 2026, after a roughly 10% post-earnings jump, and trades above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $299.46, $286.86, $279.34, $276.61, and $280.34, with a 14-day RSI near 63.24 and ADX near 18.71. The 52-week high of $337.02 is the main overhead level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $318.93 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 16.29 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $311 to $313 | The July 31, 2026 low of $311.12 and the prior close of $313.10 form the first support zone under the post-earnings move. |
| 5-day moving average | $299.46 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $299.46 as of July 31, 2026, roughly $19 below price after the sharp earnings move. |
| 20-day moving average | $286.86 | The 20-day moving average near $286.86 is the next support layer; a close below it would break the post-earnings structure. |
| Support cluster | $276 to $280 | The 50-day moving average near $279.34, 100-day near $276.61, and 200-day near $280.34 form a support cluster that matters for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $328.84 to $337.02 | The July 31, 2026 high of $328.84 and the 52-week high of $337.02 are the main overhead levels. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63, ADX near 19 | 14-day RSI was near 63.24, strong but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 18.71 with +DI of 33.06 above -DI of 18.89 on Barchart. |
| Volume | About 164,500 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 164,485 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 164,532; volume of 211,210 on July 31, 2026 was above average. |
| Volatility | Elevated near 81% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 80.66% and a 14-day average true range near $15.34, so position sizing should account for large swings after earnings and price actions. |
| Invalidation | Close below $287 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $286.86 would break the post-earnings structure; a close below the $279 support cluster would turn the medium-term trend bearish. |
CSW AI trading strategy
The CSW AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a small-cap industrial compounder with record momentum and a premium valuation. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for CSW to hold above the 5-day moving average near $299, then clear $328.84 on volume meaningfully above the 164K average. A sustained move toward $337.02, a fresh 52-week high, would require continued organic growth and margin execution rather than price increases alone.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $286.86 or a failed breakout near the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If CSW pulls back toward the $276 to $287 support cluster without negative news such as weak summer HVAC demand, margin guidance cuts, or integration issues, compare price action with housing and construction data and the next earnings report before assuming the zone is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because small-cap industrial stocks can gap on commodity, freight, tariff, or company-specific news.
Track organic revenue growth by segment, Contractor Solutions momentum, MARS and Aspen synergy realization, gross margin versus raw material and freight costs, net leverage, interest expense, Greco divestiture progress, and share buyback pace.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on acquisitions rather than organic demand, or if adjusted EBITDA margin falls below the high 20s for more than one quarter.
Investment research summary
CSW sells niche, value-added products that HVAC/R contractors, builders, and industrial maintenance teams need for performance and reliability, with code compliance, safety, and downtime prevention driving recurring demand. Customers pay because switching to unproven alternatives risks rework, liability, or downtime.
The moat comes from branded products such as RectorSeal, MARS, Aspen, Balco, Jet-Lube, and Whitmore, specification-driven adoption, installer habits, distribution channel relationships, and consumable pull-through. It is durable in its niches but narrower against larger industrial distributors and manufacturers.
The thesis fails if replacement and summer demand disappoints, raw material or freight inflation outruns pricing, the five recent acquisitions fail to integrate or hit synergy targets, interest expense keeps GAAP EPS depressed, the premium multiple compresses as growth normalizes, or the founder-led leadership bench proves thin.
Joseph B. Armes, founder and CEO, has a record of disciplined capital allocation: about $1.0 billion across five accretive acquisitions since May 2025, open market buybacks near a $267 average, thirty consecutive quarterly dividends, and net leverage reduced from 2.55x to 2.37x. Employees own roughly 3% of the company including the ESOP.
HVAC/R and industrial maintenance demand is durable and benefits from hot weather repair and replacement cycles, building code evolution, and energy and mining activity, but it tracks economic and housing cycles. Commercial construction remains soft per ABI and Dodge momentum, so the company is finding the right pockets of the market.
At roughly 44x trailing EPS and 25x forward EPS, the market prices in continued double-digit growth. The three-scenario framework suggests limited upside from the current level unless growth stays strong, and margin of safety improves if the stock revisits the $276 to $287 support zone while the fundamental trends stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSW price | $318.93 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 1.86% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.20 billion, computed as $318.93 x 16.29 million shares outstanding, with 16,293,487 shares on the Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q cover dated July 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR company facts | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $350.6 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 33.0%, with 5.3% consolidated organic growth and $73.0 million or 27.7% inorganic growth, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 350,650,000 | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release, earnings call, and SEC EDGAR XBRL | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 adjusted results | Record adjusted EBITDA of $101.6 million up 48% with a 29.0% margin, record adjusted EPS of $3.84 up 35%, record operating cash flow of $75.6 million, free cash flow of $69.6 million, and adjusted gross margin of 45.1% up 130 basis points | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 GAAP results | GAAP operating income of $79.9 million at a 22.8% margin, net income attributable to CSW of $49.8 million up 21.6%, and diluted EPS of $3.04 up 25.3%, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL net income of 49,759,000 and EPS of 3.04 | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 segment results | Contractor Solutions revenue of $276.0 million up 40.3% with 5.9% organic growth and a 34.2% adjusted EBITDA margin; Specialized Reliability Solutions revenue of $48.2 million up 30.9% with 16.5% organic growth and a 20.8% margin; Engineered Building Solutions revenue of $28.9 million down 9.3%, with ex-Greco revenue of $23.4 million up 7.0% at a 26.2% margin | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $1.08 billion for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, up 23.25% from $878.3 million, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 1,082,549,000 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $112.05 million, down 18.01% from $136.65 million, and diluted EPS of $6.70, down 20.05%, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL figures of 112,045,000 and 6.70 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $47.495 million as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (47495000) and the Q1 FY2027 balance sheet | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $855.45 million as of June 30, 2026, with $29.46 million current portion and $825.99 million long-term, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (825993000) for long-term debt | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | Net debt near $815 million with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.37x as of June 30, 2026, down from 2.55x at fiscal 2026 year-end, within the one to three times target | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Capital returns in Q1 FY2027 | $28.4 million returned to shareholders through $23.5 million of open market buybacks (88,000 shares at an average of $267) and $4.9 million in dividends, with the thirtieth consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.30 declared | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Acquisition track record | About $1.0 billion invested since May 1, 2025 across five accretive acquisitions including MARS Parts and Aspen Manufacturing; MARS Parts run-rate synergies raised to $13 million from $10 million with a 30% EBITDA margin target achieved two quarters in a row | CSW Industrials Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 43.81x trailing PE, 24.67x forward PE, 1.97x PEG, 4.44x sales, 4.84x book value, 36.02x free cash flow, 22.71x EV/EBITDA, and 0.38% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $1.17 billion up 27.7%, net income of $120.88 million, EPS of $7.28, operating cash flow of $164.63 million, free cash flow of $144.28 million, gross margin of 42.53%, and operating margin of 18.24% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $342.57 across 7 analysts, low $304, median $340, and high $400, plus a 12-month upside of 7.41% | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 4 Hold out of 7 analysts, with recent targets including J.P. Morgan raised to $380 from $350 on July 31, Baird raised to $400 from $378 on July 31, Wells Fargo raised to $320 from $285 on July 31, Goldman Sachs at $315 on July 10, and Truist at $313 on July 7 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue of $1.27 billion up 17.11% with adjusted EPS of $12.03 up 15.92%, FY2028 revenue of $1.32 billion with adjusted EPS of $13.19, and three-year revenue and EPS growth forecasts of 8.32% and 11.97% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.15 million shares short, 7.08% of shares outstanding, and 7.78 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.20 per share annualized for a 0.38% yield with $0.30 quarterly dividends, representing the thirtieth consecutive quarterly dividend, payable August 14, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $299.46, 20-day SMA near $286.86, 50-day SMA near $279.34, 100-day SMA near $276.61, 200-day SMA near $280.34, 14-day RSI near 63.24, 14-day ADX near 18.71, and 14-day historical volatility near 80.66% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week range of $230.45 to $337.02 and a five-year beta of 0.81 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell CSW stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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