Li Auto Inc. research snapshot
LI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Li Auto Inc. as a China premium new-energy vehicle maker holding a large net cash balance while its vehicle margins collapse through a difficult product transition. The stock closed at $13.63 on July 31, 2026, up about 12.5% in the last five trading sessions after a June low near $11.65, with a market capitalization of about $13.43 billion verified during this full refresh as $13.63 times 985.63 million shares outstanding with 0.03% deviation. Q1 2026 results, reported May 28, 2026, showed revenue of RMB23.0 billion down 11.4% year over year, deliveries of 95,142 vehicles up 2.5%, vehicle margin collapsing to 6.1% from 19.8% a year earlier, and a net loss of RMB2.3 billion versus RMB646.6 million income in Q1 2025. The cash position was RMB94.3 billion (about US$13.7 billion) as of March 31, 2026, which equals roughly $11 per ADS against a $13.63 price, so the enterprise value near $2.5 billion implies the market prices the auto operations at only a small premium to net cash. Q2 2026 deliveries of 98,330 vehicles came in within the 95,000 to 100,000 guidance, and July deliveries were 30,468. The AI score is 47/100: constructive on the balance sheet, the new Li L9, L8 and L6 launches, and the US$1.0 billion buyback, cautious on margin compression, negative free cash flow, and a still-mixed chart. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$13.63
Market cap
$13.43 billion
AI score
47 / 100
Rating
Cash-rich product-cycle turnaround with compressed margins
Trend status
Improving short-term trend above the 50-day moving average, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Li Auto sells premium new-energy family vehicles, mainly extended-range SUVs plus newer pure BEV models, alongside services and software features. The family EREV model worked when range confidence and cabin comfort differentiated it; that edge is now under pressure as pure BEV range, charging, and rival products improve, which is why vehicle margin dropped to 6.1% in Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand strength in China family SUVs, EREV product know-how, direct retail and service coverage, and in-house intelligent driving investment are real assets. Pricing power and switching costs are moderate, and category leadership can be copied faster than a software network effect would allow. | Medium |
| Management | Founder Li Xiang remains central with dual-class control. Management is executing a US$1.0 billion share repurchase program, repurchased US$716.8 million of 2028 convertible notes, and is pushing a new product cycle with the all-new Li L9, L8, and L6, while emphasizing embodied AI and overseas expansion into Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 22.3% to RMB112.3 billion with net income down 85.8% to RMB1.1 billion, and operating cash flow turned negative at about RMB8.6 billion used. Q1 2026 widened the setback with a RMB2.3 billion net loss, 6.1% vehicle margin, and negative free cash flow of RMB7.4 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At about $13.43 billion market cap and about $10.93 billion net cash, the enterprise value near $2.5 billion prices the operating business at a small premium to its cash. PS is about 0.85 on TTM revenue, but depressed and now negative near-term earnings leave little traditional earnings margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price near $13.63 sits above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages after a 12.5% five-day rally, but still below the 100-day average near $15.73 and the 200-day average near $17.03, with 14-day RSI near 59. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of China EV price competition, BEV transition execution, compressed margins, negative free cash flow, ADR and policy exposure, and the risk that cash burn outpaces the new product cycle. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, deliveries, quote math, and the cash position. Medium confidence for forward scenario ranges and the pace of margin recovery. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Lower than data confidence because the margin collapse is recent and unproven, and the path back to durable profitability depends on execution in a crowded market. | Medium-low |
LI AI stock forecast
The LI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a single target. The financial_rigor.py three-scenario tool, run on a normalized EPS base near $0.36 with 35%, 15%, and -10% annual growth and exit multiples of 25x, 15x, and 10x over three years, produces a bullish area near $22, a base area near $8, and a bearish area near $3 before adding the roughly $11 per ADS net cash balance. Because the stock trades only modestly above net cash, the page presents the bull case near $18 to $24, the base case near $12 to $16, and the bear case near $6 to $10, with the cash balance as the main downside cushion if delivery recovery and margins disappoint.
$18 to $24
More likely if deliveries re-accelerate on the new Li L9, L8 and L6 cycle, vehicle margin recovers toward the mid-teens, GAAP profits return on a multi-quarter basis, free cash flow turns positive, and the stock reclaims the $15.70 to $16.00 zone with volume toward the analyst average target near $18.26.
$12 to $16
More likely if deliveries stabilize around 95,000 to 105,000 per quarter, margins improve only gradually, the RMB94.3 billion cash balance holds as a floor, and the stock oscillates between the $12.50 area and the $15.70 to $16.00 supply zone.
$6 to $10
More likely if China EV discounts intensify, vehicle margin stays in the single digits, cash declines faster than expected, the BEV ramp underwhelms, or price loses the $11.65 to $11.75 support band, moving toward the analyst low target near $10.02.
LI AI technical analysis
LI AI technical analysis uses the $13.63 July 31, 2026 close and early August snapshots. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com showed price above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages after a 12.5% five-day rally, but still below the 100-day average near $15.73 and the 200-day average near $17.03. Practical support sits near $13.20 to $13.40 (50-day average area) then $12.50 to $12.65, while resistance starts near $14.00 and thickens around $15.70 to $16.00. Momentum has improved from the June oversold reading, with 14-day RSI near 59.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.63 | StockAnalysis.com and the price history page listed the July 31, 2026 close near $13.63, up 1.04% on the day and up about 12.5% over the prior five sessions. |
| Near support | $13.20 to $13.40 | The 50-day moving average sits near $13.40 on both Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, a natural first pullback support zone after the rally. |
| Next support | $12.50 to $12.65 | The 20-day moving average was near $12.54 on Barchart, with early July trading around $12.02 to $12.12 forming a secondary support area. |
| Near resistance | $14.00 to $14.04 | Mid-June breakdown levels near $14.00 to $14.04 act as the first overhead supply zone on the daily chart. |
| Major resistance | $15.70 to $16.00 | The 100-day moving average near $15.73 and late-May prices near $15.90 to $16.20 create a thicker supply band; a close above it would materially improve the medium-term picture. |
| 20-day moving average | About $12.54 | Barchart listed the 20-day average near $12.54 as of July 31, 2026, well below price, confirming the short-term bounce. |
| 50-day moving average | About $13.40 | Both Barchart and StockAnalysis.com showed the 50-day average near $13.40; price just reclaimed it, which is a short-term positive but not yet a confirmed uptrend. |
| 100-day moving average | About $15.73 | Barchart listed the 100-day average near $15.73; price remains below it, so the medium-term trend is still repair-oriented. |
| 200-day moving average | About $17.03 | Both services showed the 200-day average near $17.03, about 25% above the current price, so the long-term trend stays bearish until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | Improving, RSI near 59 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 59.18 and 14-day ADX near 22.86 with +DI above -DI, indicating a recovering but not yet strongly trending setup. |
| Volume | About 3.99 million average daily volume | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 3.99 million and Barchart near 3.99 million, adequate liquidity with gap risk remaining on China news. |
| Volatility | 52-week range about $11.65 to $27.10 | StockAnalysis.com showed the 52-week range near $11.65 to $27.10 with 14-day historical volatility near 39.65% on Barchart, so event and sentiment moves remain large. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.65 | A decisive close under the 52-week low near $11.65 would invalidate the short-term recovery unless fresh fundamental evidence offsets it. |
LI AI trading strategy
The LI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair any setup with position sizing, earnings and delivery calendars, China EV policy headlines, and cash-position updates. The next earnings release is scheduled for August 27, 2026.
Wait for LI to reclaim and hold above the $15.70 to $16.00 zone (near the 100-day average) and then treat higher highs only after follow-through above the 200-day area near $17.03.
A failed breakout back below $13.20 or a close under $12.50 should invalidate the momentum read.
If price retests $13.20 to $13.40 or the $12.50 area without a thesis break in cash, margins, or deliveries, compare the bounce against Q2 earnings due August 27, monthly delivery follow-through, and vehicle-margin stability.
Do not average down unless maximum loss, ADR gap risk, and news risk are defined before entry.
Track monthly deliveries, vehicle margin, pure BEV mix, cash position, operating cash flow, free cash flow, R&D spend, buyback execution, and competitive pricing from BYD, Huawei-affiliated brands, Xiaomi, NIO, and XPeng.
Lower confidence if price rallies on brand or AI headlines while vehicle margins stay in the single digits and free cash flow remains negative.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Li Auto for premium family new-energy vehicles that emphasize range confidence, cabin comfort, and software features, plus aftersales services. The core historical product edge was extended-range electric vehicles for Chinese multi-person households, with pure BEV models added later.
The strongest claimed advantages are brand recognition in China family SUVs, EREV product experience, direct retail and service coverage, and in-house software and intelligent driving investment. Those assets matter, but competitors can copy range, cabin features, and channel density faster than a durable network moat would protect.
The thesis fails if Li Auto remains stuck between EREV legacy demand and a pure BEV market that rewards scale and cost more than cabin branding. Other failure paths include a renewed China price war, continued negative free cash flow, weaker family-SUV demand, ADR or policy shocks, and delayed intelligent driving monetization.
Li Xiang is the founder-CEO and controlling figure under a dual-class structure. Management previously converted product focus into industry-leading profitability among China pure-play EV peers, then faced a harder 2025 to 2026 competitive cycle. It is executing a US$1.0 billion buyback, repurchased US$716.8 million of 2028 convertible notes, and is betting on a new L9, L8, and L6 cycle plus embodied AI.
China NEV adoption, family mobility upgrades, and intelligent driving sit inside long-duration trends. The hard part is industry structure: many capable competitors, rapid feature copying, and periodic price-war resets that compress hardware profits even when the category grows.
At about $13.43 billion market cap with roughly $10.93 billion in net cash, the stock trades near its cash value and the operating business is priced at a small premium. Margin of safety rests mainly on the cash floor, because FY2025 profits collapsed, Q1 2026 posted a large loss, and multi-year upside depends on durable profitability rather than revenue alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $13.63 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com LI quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $13.43 billion, verified as $13.63 x 985.63M shares with 0.03% deviation vs reported $13.43B | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and deliveries | RMB23.0 billion (US$3.3 billion), down 11.4% YoY; 95,142 deliveries, up 2.5% YoY | Li Auto Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 margins and net loss | Vehicle margin 6.1% vs 19.8% in Q1 2025; gross margin 7.9% vs 20.5%; net loss RMB2.3 billion (US$330.0 million) vs RMB646.6 million income | Li Auto Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow and cash position | Net cash used in operating activities RMB6.1 billion; free cash flow negative RMB7.4 billion; cash position RMB94.3 billion (US$13.7 billion) as of March 31, 2026 | Li Auto Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue RMB112.3 billion (US$16.1 billion), down 22.3%; deliveries 406,343; net income RMB1.1 billion (US$162.9 million), down 85.8%; vehicle margin 17.9% | Li Auto FY2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | Net cash used in operating activities about RMB8.6 billion; free cash flow negative RMB12.8 billion; year-end cash RMB101.2 billion | Li Auto FY2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 deliveries | 98,330 vehicles (April 34,085, May 33,350, June 30,895), within the 95,000 to 100,000 guidance | Li Auto monthly delivery updates | August 3, 2026 |
| July 2026 deliveries | 30,468 vehicles; cumulative deliveries 1,764,155 as of July 31, 2026 | Li Auto July 2026 delivery update | August 3, 2026 |
| New product launches in 2026 | All-new Li L9 launched May 15, 2026 (Ultra RMB459,800, Livis RMB509,800); all-new Li L8 launched June 23, 2026; new Li L6 launched July 16, 2026 (standard RMB249,800) | Li Auto press releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | About 16.4 million Class A shares (including about 6.7 million ADSs) repurchased for about US$139.7 million under the US$1.0 billion program as of May 26, 2026 | Li Auto Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Convertible notes repurchase | US$716.8 million principal of 0.25% convertible notes due 2028 repurchased via put right offer; US$145.7 million remains outstanding | Li Auto Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet snapshot (March 31, 2026) | Cash and short-term investments RMB93.1 billion; total debt RMB17.7 billion; net cash RMB75.4 billion; book value RMB70.1 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash per ADS and enterprise value | Net cash about $10.93 billion, or about $11.09 per ADS; enterprise value about $2.51 billion at $13.63 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $18.26 across 26 analysts, low $10.02, median $18.01, high $26.92 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 27 ratings | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target moves | J.P. Morgan Sell $14 to $10 on July 14, 2026; Bernstein Hold $16; HSBC Hold $17 to $16; CMB International Hold $18 to $16; Barclays Hold $18 to $14 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 26.70 million shares short, 5.06% of shares outstanding, 7.33 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate RMB121.38 billion (+8.07%) with adjusted EPS RMB0.85; FY2027 revenue RMB150.35 billion (+23.87%) with adjusted EPS RMB2.48 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PS about 0.85, PB about 1.36, forward PE about 135.06 on consensus, PEG about 2.42 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $13.35, 20-day SMA near $12.54, 50-day SMA near $13.40, 100-day SMA near $15.73, 200-day SMA near $17.03, 14-day RSI near 59.18, 14-day historical volatility near 39.65% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation math | Three-scenario tool on normalized EPS near $0.36 over 3 years: bull near $22 (35% growth, 25x PE), base near $8 (15% growth, 15x PE), bear near $3 (-10% growth, 10x PE), before adding the about $11 per ADS net cash balance | financial_rigor.py three-scenario tool | August 3, 2026 |
This LI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, delivery updates, policy changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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