Legence Corp. research snapshot
LGN AI stock analysis reads Legence as a fast-growing U.S. provider of engineering, installation, fabrication, and maintenance services for mission-critical mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems. The July 31, 2026 close was $63.93, implying about $6.91 billion of market capitalization using 108.04 million shares. The stock pulled back sharply in July, closing as low as $53.08 on July 29 before rebounding. Q1 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.04 billion, backlog and awarded contracts reached $5.38 billion, S&P upgraded Legence to BB- with a positive outlook in June, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $470 million to $490 million. The counterweight is a leveraged balance sheet, lower Q1 gross margin, acquisition and data center concentration, and a forward multiple that still assumes strong execution. This is informational analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$63.93 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$6.91 billion calculated from 108.04 million shares
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Record-backlog mission-critical building services platform with an improved credit rating and raised 2026 guidance, offset by a sharp July pullback, leverage, and a forward multiple that still prices in strong execution
Trend status
Price is above the 200-day average near $59.53 but below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages after a sharp July selloff to a $53.08 close, followed by a partial rebound to $63.93
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Legence sells engineering, fabrication, installation, and maintenance work that customers need to make complex buildings operate safely, efficiently, and reliably. Q1 2026 revenue was 84.0% Installation and Maintenance and 16.0% Engineering and Consulting, with data centers and technology the main demand driver. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on specialized labor, safety record, engineering knowledge, fabrication capacity, customer trust, project references, and the ability to cross-sell across a national platform. Switching friction is meaningful in mission-critical work, but this is a competitive service market with limited network effects and no obvious patent monopoly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeff Sprau has led Legence Parent since 2020 and Legence Corp. since 2025. The team has executed the IPO, the Bowers acquisition, smaller tuck-in deals, a term loan repricing, a credit rating upgrade to BB-, and raised 2026 guidance. The test is whether growth converts into per-share cash earnings while debt, equity issuance, and integration remain controlled. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $1.25 billion in 2022 to $2.55 billion in 2025, and TTM revenue reached about $3.08 billion. Q1 2026 revenue grew 105.1% to $1.04 billion and net income attributable to Legence was $16.1 million, but Q1 gross margin declined to 17.9% and TTM GAAP profit remains thin. | High |
| Valuation | At $63.93, LGN was about 2.24x TTM sales, 8.5x book value, and 23.3x TTM free cash flow using StockAnalysis data. TTM GAAP earnings are minimal, so P/E is not meaningful. Consensus 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $1.46 implies about 43.8x forward P/E, while enterprise value of about $7.84 billion is roughly 16.3x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $63.93 was below the 20-day average near $68.85, the 50-day average near $77.90, and the 100-day average near $74.24, but above the 200-day average near $59.53. The stock fell from a peak near $107 to a $53.08 close on July 29 before rebounding, leaving a wide 52-week range of $26.96 to $107.24. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high for a newly public contractor. Major risks include data center and construction-cycle exposure, project losses, labor shortages, customer concentration, acquisition integration, working-capital swings, about $1.02 billion of company-defined total debt, variable interest costs, and possible equity issuance for deferred consideration or acquisitions. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the reported snapshot because filings, market data, and the credit rating action are available. Predictive confidence is lower because Legence has a short public history, 2026 growth is acquisition-assisted, and non-GAAP forecasts depend on execution and valuation multiples that already moved sharply in July. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business has attractive demand exposure and improving credit, but the stock requires continued backlog conversion, margin recovery, deleveraging, and disciplined capital allocation to justify its forward valuation. The page supports a watchlist framework more readily than a high-certainty margin-of-safety conclusion, especially with Q2 earnings due August 13, 2026. | Low-medium |
LGN AI stock forecast
The LGN AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price promise. A three-year model using the StockAnalysis consensus 2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $1.46 produced $112.3 in the bullish case using 30% annual EPS growth and a 35x exit multiple, $63.1 in the base case using 20% growth and a 25x multiple, and $20.4 in the bearish case using 0% growth and a 14x multiple. These inputs are analyst estimates and valuation assumptions, not company guidance or guaranteed outcomes.
$95 to $125
More likely if Q2 2026 results on August 13 meet the $1.05 billion to $1.1 billion revenue and $115 million to $125 million adjusted EBITDA guide, 2026 revenue reaches $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion, Bowers integrates without margin leakage, organic data center and life sciences demand stays strong, backlog converts on schedule, and further credit upgrades lower interest costs while investors sustain a premium growth multiple.
$50 to $75
More likely if Legence delivers the current 2026 guide, revenue growth moderates after the Bowers contribution, gross margin stabilizes near the high teens, acquisitions add capability but not a step-change in returns, debt remains serviceable, and the market gradually values the company at a lower but still growth-oriented multiple than the $105.71 consensus analyst target.
$18 to $35
More likely if data center projects are delayed, customers reduce construction spending, project execution or labor costs compress margins, the Q2 report disappoints, working capital absorbs cash, debt costs stay high, or future equity issuance increases the share count while the market assigns a mid-teen multiple to weak or negative GAAP earnings.
LGN AI technical analysis
LGN AI technical analysis is based on Yahoo Finance daily closes through the July 31, 2026 session. The close was $63.93, below the 20-day average near $68.85, the 50-day average near $77.90, and the 100-day average near $74.24, but above the 200-day average near $59.53. The stock has a wide 52-week range of $26.96 to $107.24, so support and resistance should be treated as research zones rather than precise trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $63.93 | July 31, 2026 close used for this page, market cap, and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $59 to $62 | This band covers the 200-day moving average near $59.53, the July 28 low near $58.92, and the July 31 low near $62.04. A close below it would re-test the July swing low. |
| Deeper support | $52.5 to $56 | This zone includes the July 29 swing low near $52.56 and the July 30 low near $55.76. It marks the bottom of the recent correction and is a larger trend test, not an automatic entry level. |
| Near resistance | $67 to $70 | The 20-day average near $68.85 and the early July congestion define the first repair zone after the selloff. |
| Major resistance | $74 to $80 | The 100-day average near $74.24 and the 50-day average near $77.90 form the main overhead supply zone that must be reclaimed for the recovery to continue. |
| Moving averages | 20-day about $68.85, 50-day about $77.90, 100-day about $74.24, 200-day about $59.53 | Daily closes from Yahoo Finance through July 31, 2026 were used. Vendor calculations can differ slightly because of session and adjustment conventions. |
| Momentum | Short-term bearish but recovering from oversold | Price below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages signals a downtrend over the near term, while the rebound from $53.08 and price above the 200-day average preserve a broader recovery structure. |
| Volume | 1,563,000 shares on July 31 versus about 1.56 million 20-day average volume | The heaviest selling came on July 29 and July 30 near the swing low. A durable breakout or breakdown should be judged against multi-million-share liquidity. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $26.96 to $107.24 | The wide range reflects a newly listed stock, a sharp July drawdown, strong earnings and backlog narratives, and high sensitivity to project-cycle and valuation changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52.56, then below $59.53 | A close below the July 29 swing low weakens the recovery case. A break of the 200-day average near $59.53 would challenge the longer-term trend and should be checked against guidance, margins, and leverage. |
LGN AI trading strategy
The LGN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Because Legence is a newly public, leveraged contractor, technical signals should be confirmed with backlog conversion, project margins, cash flow, debt pricing, and the Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 13, 2026.
Watch for a reclaim of the $67 to $70 zone and then the $74 to $80 moving-average band on volume above the recent 20-day average while quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and backlog remain on plan. A higher low above the $59 to $62 support band would improve trend quality.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close below $59 as a setup failure. Do not rely on price alone if management cuts guidance, project margins deteriorate, or net leverage rises.
Use the $59 to $62 band, or the deeper $52.5 to $56 zone, as research areas only if 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance remain credible, Bowers integration is on track, and cash conversion is not weakening.
Do not average down through a break of the 200-day average near $59.53 if the data center cycle turns or debt costs rise. Define a maximum loss and an operating metric that invalidates the thesis before considering any position.
Track the August 13 Q2 earnings report, quarterly revenue by segment, organic growth excluding Bowers, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, backlog and book-to-bill, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, total debt, interest rates, customer concentration, and any equity-funded consideration.
Reduce confidence before earnings when the valuation relies on consensus non-GAAP EPS and a strong multiple. Treat analyst targets such as the $105.71 consensus price target as context, not as a substitute for first-party results or a risk budget.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Legence to make technically demanding buildings work. Its engineers and skilled trades design, fabricate, install, and maintain HVAC, process piping, electrical, and other MEP systems where downtime, safety failures, or energy waste are expensive. The one-line essence is specialized building infrastructure execution sold into complex facilities.
Legence can build a service moat through project references, safety culture, technical labor, fabrication capacity, national reach, and trust with data center, life sciences, healthcare, education, and government customers. The moat is practical rather than digital. There is no clear network effect, and strong regional contractors, national peers, and internal customer teams can compete for the same work.
The thesis fails if data center capital spending slows, projects are delayed or repriced, labor and material costs outrun contract economics, a major customer or general contractor becomes distressed, Bowers underperforms, or working capital consumes the operating cash flow that appears strong on the income statement. The July drawdown from above $107 to below $53 shows that valuation can compress quickly. The most likely analytical error is confusing backlog with future free cash flow.
Jeff Sprau has led the parent company since 2020 and the public company since 2025. The record includes the IPO, the $475 million Bowers acquisition, smaller tuck-in acquisitions such as Metrix, a term loan repricing, an S&P upgrade to BB- with a positive outlook, and a higher 2026 outlook. Capital allocation quality will be judged by post-acquisition margins, debt reduction, cash conversion, and whether deferred consideration is paid without unnecessary dilution.
AI infrastructure, data centers, advanced manufacturing, life sciences, healthcare, energy efficiency, and resilient buildings support a long-term demand trend. Legence reported that data centers and technology represented 42.7% of 2025 revenue and that more than 60% of Nasdaq-100 companies were among its clients. From a 20-year view, the opportunity may be durable, but Legence remains a contractor exposed to project timing, labor, pricing, and capital-cycle risk rather than a guaranteed owner of the AI platform.
At $63.93, market capitalization was about $6.91 billion and enterprise value about $7.84 billion. The stock traded near 2.24x TTM sales, 8.5x book value, 23.3x TTM free cash flow, and about 16.3x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Analyst consensus non-GAAP EPS of $1.46 implies about 43.8x forward P/E, so the margin of safety depends on sustained growth, margin recovery, and deleveraging.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price and trading range | $63.93 close on July 31, 2026; day range $62.04 to $65.90; 52-week range $26.96 to $107.24; volume 1,563,000 | Yahoo Finance chart data | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 108.04 million shares as of August 2026, including 76.87 million Class A shares and 31.17 million Class B shares | Legence Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2022 to TTM revenue | $1.25B in 2022, $1.62B in 2023, $2.10B in 2024, $2.55B in 2025, and about $3.08B TTM as of Q1 2026, up 44.3% | Legence 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and margins | Revenue $1,037.9M, up 105.1% (up 57.1% excluding Bowers); gross profit $186.2M and gross margin 17.9%; net income attributable to Legence $16.1M; adjusted EBITDA $118.1M | Legence Q1 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $244.6M at March 31, 2026; company-defined total debt about $1.02B (Term Loan $995.3M plus Notes Payable $26.2M); StockAnalysis reported total debt about $1.18B including other items | Legence Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, earnings release, and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit rating and term loan pricing | On June 5, 2026, S&P upgraded the issuer credit rating to BB- from B+ with a positive outlook; after the May 28 repricing and the upgrade, Term Loan pricing declined to SOFR plus 1.75% | Legence press releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog and book-to-bill | Backlog and awarded contracts $5.38B at March 31, 2026, up 103.9% year over year; consolidated Q1 book-to-bill 1.2x | Legence Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 company guidance | Revenue $4.1B to $4.3B and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA $470M to $490M, raised from prior guidance; Q2 2026 guide is revenue $1.05B to $1.1B and adjusted EBITDA $115M to $125M | Legence Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | Calculated market cap $6.91B; EV about $7.84B; P/S 2.24x; P/B 8.52x; P/FCF 23.25x; TTM FCF yield 4.3%; EV/2026 adjusted EBITDA about 16.3x | Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward earnings and analyst reference | Consensus 2026 non-GAAP EPS $1.46; consensus 2026 revenue about $4.27B; 17 analysts, Strong Buy, average price target $105.71 with a range of $80 to $125; recent targets include Guggenheim $115, Bernstein $103, RBC $101, BMO $100, and Goldman Sachs $95 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and acquisition record | Jeff Sprau has served as CEO since January 2025; Bowers closed January 2, 2026 for approximately $325M cash, $100M stock, and $50M deferred consideration; Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 13, 2026 | Legence leadership page, Bowers release, and earnings calendar | August 3, 2026 |
This LGN AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available filings, market data, analyst estimates, and valuation assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. Market data is through the July 31, 2026 close and the Q2 2026 earnings report was not yet released at the cutoff.
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