Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LECO AI stock analysis currently reads Lincoln Electric Holdings as a high-quality industrial franchise that sells arc welding equipment, consumables, automated welding systems, cutting products, and Harris brazing and soldering solutions. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, LECO was near $250.97 with a verified market value of about $13.75 billion. FY2025 revenue reached $4.23 billion and net income $520.5 million, while Q1 2026 sales rose 11.7% to $1.12 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.50. The bullish case rests on consumable stickiness, automation mix, high returns on equity near 35%, and pricing power. The caution is a premium trailing PE near 25.9x, industrial cycle sensitivity, and a chart that has pulled back from the $310 52-week high toward the mid-200s.
Current price
$250.97
Market cap
$13.75 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality welding and automation compounder with strong margins and ROE, trading at a premium valuation after a pullback from the 52-week high
Trend status
Soft technical trend: price is below the 50-day average and near or below the 200-day average after retreating from the $310 high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lincoln Electric sells welding equipment, consumables, automation systems, cutting tools, and Harris brazing products that industrial fabricators and OEMs need repeatedly. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, consumable recurring revenue, distribution reach, process know-how, automation IP, and installed-base service relationships. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO Steven B. Hedlund is continuing a capital-return heavy model after Christopher Mapes stepped down, with dividends, buybacks, automation investment, and disciplined M&A. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 5.6% to $4.23 billion and net income rose 11.7% to $520.5 million. Q1 2026 net sales rose 11.7% to $1.12 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.50. | High |
| Valuation | At $250.97, verified math shows about 25.90x TTM EPS of $9.69, 9.10x book value, roughly 31x TTM free cash flow per share near $8.00, and a 1.26% forward dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | LECO is below the roughly $264 50-day area and near the roughly $254 200-day area, with RSI near the mid-40s after the retreat from $310. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Demand is industrial and cyclical, competition is real, leverage is manageable but not zero, and valuation leaves less room for growth disappointments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because returns depend on volume, price mix, automation adoption, rates, and PE compression risk. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Business quality is strong, but the July 2026 price already assumes continued compounding rather than deep margin of safety. | Medium |
LECO AI stock forecast
The LECO AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, a $250.97 stock price, $9.69 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $381 in a bull case, $285 in a base case, and $165 in a bear case before dividends.
$365 to $395
More likely if organic sales stay in the high-single-digit range, automation mix expands, adjusted margins hold near the high teens, free cash flow conversion recovers toward 100%, and investors keep a high-20s earnings multiple.
$275 to $295
More likely if EPS compounds near mid- to high-single digits, pricing offsets input costs, Americas Welding stays solid, and the market values LECO around the mid-20s PE range.
$155 to $175
More likely if industrial volumes weaken, international demand softens, trade or tariff friction compresses margins, free cash flow stays weak relative to earnings, or the multiple compresses toward the mid-teens.
LECO AI technical analysis
LECO AI technical analysis is soft as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Quote sources showed LECO near $250.97 with market cap near $13.75 billion, a 52-week range of $214.06 to $310.00, RSI in the mid-40s, a 50-day moving average near the mid-$260s, and a 200-day moving average near the mid-$250s.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $250.97 | Reference quote near the July 10 to July 11, 2026 session window used for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $246 to $251 | Recent closes and the post-pullback shelf around $250 form the first risk line for short-term holders. |
| Deeper support | $214 to $220 | The 52-week low near $214.06 is the major downside reference if industrial sentiment weakens further. |
| Near resistance | $254 to $265 | The 200-day area near $254 and the 50-day area near the mid-$260s are the first repair zones after the drawdown from $310. |
| 50-day moving average | About $264 | Price is below this short-term trend marker, which keeps the tactical tape constructive only on reclaim. |
| 200-day moving average | About $254 | Price is fighting the long-term trend marker. A sustained close above it would improve the medium-term setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near mid-40s | Momentum is weak but not washed out. Follow-through above the moving averages matters more than one rebound day. |
| Volume | Average volume near 360,000 shares | Breaks above $265 or below $246 should be judged against participation because industrial stocks can gap on macro and tariff headlines. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.2; 52-week range $214.06 to $310.00 | LECO is not a low-volatility utility. Earnings, industrial PMI data, steel costs, and trade news can move the stock sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $246 | A close below the recent $246 to $251 shelf would weaken the current base and shift focus toward the $214 to $220 zone. |
LECO AI trading strategy
The LECO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings (expected around July 30, 2026), organic sales mix, automation demand, free cash flow conversion, pricing versus input costs, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LECO to close above the $254 to $265 resistance band with improving volume while earnings confirm high-single-digit sales growth, stable adjusted margins, and healthier free cash flow conversion.
Treat a failed reclaim of the 50-day average followed by a close below $246 as a warning. A break under $220 weakens the broader bullish industrial compounder tape.
If LECO pulls back toward $220 to $246 without a cut to full-year sales or margin assumptions, compare the reset price with the base scenario and free cash flow trajectory.
Do not average down only because ROE and brand quality look strong. Require evidence that volumes, price mix, and cash conversion remain intact.
Track July 30 earnings, organic sales versus price and volume, Americas Welding and International Welding demand, Harris Products Group, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow conversion, buybacks, and net debt.
Lower the rating if industrial volumes stall while the PE stays near 26x, if free cash flow lags earnings for multiple quarters, or if trade and input-cost pressure compresses margins.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lincoln Electric because welding, cutting, and brazing processes need reliable equipment plus ongoing consumables, and factories increasingly want automated joining systems that improve quality and labor productivity.
LECO benefits from brand trust, consumable reorders, distributor relationships, process expertise, automation software and hardware, and an installed base that is expensive to switch in regulated or high-spec fabrication settings.
The thesis fails if industrial capital spending rolls over, competitors undercut automation economics, international volume weakens, tariffs or steel costs crush price/cost spreads, or the market rerates LECO from a premium compounder multiple to a mid-cycle industrial multiple.
Steven Hedlund, now Chair and CEO, inherited a strong operating system built under Christopher Mapes. The key test is keeping high ROIC and cash returns while scaling automation without overpaying for growth or letting the industrial cycle hide weak free cash flow.
LECO sits in durable manufacturing needs: infrastructure repair, energy and shipyard fabrication, automotive and heavy equipment production, and factory automation that substitutes capital for scarce skilled welders. Demand is long duration but still cyclical.
At about 25.9x TTM EPS, 9.1x book, and roughly 31x TTM free cash flow per share, LECO is priced as a quality franchise. Margin of safety is thinner than business quality alone implies unless growth and cash conversion stay strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LECO quote reference | $250.97 near the July 10 to July 11, 2026 session window | Yahoo Finance LECO quote and Morningstar LECO quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.75 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $250.97 x 54.79 million shares with 0.00% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Morningstar, and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 54.79 million shares outstanding | Morningstar LECO quote and StockAnalysis LECO statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.233 billion revenue and $520.5 million net income, cross-validated with Macrotrends at under 0.1% variance | Lincoln Electric FY2025 results / SEC 10-K and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $534.2 million free cash flow for full-year 2025 | Lincoln Electric FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $1.121 billion net sales (+11.7%), $136.4 million net income, $2.47 diluted EPS, and $2.50 adjusted EPS | Lincoln Electric Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash, debt, and free cash flow | $298.9 million cash, about $1.15 billion long-term debt, and $63.0 million free cash flow in Q1 2026 | Lincoln Electric Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $9.69, trailing PE 25.90x, forward dividend about $3.16 (1.26% yield), TTM free cash flow about $438 million | Yahoo Finance LECO key statistics and StockAnalysis LECO statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment structure | Americas Welding, International Welding, and The Harris Products Group | Lincoln Electric FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $214.06 to $310.00, 50-day MA near mid-$260s, 200-day MA near mid-$250s, RSI near mid-40s | Yahoo Finance LECO quote, Barchart, and Investing.com technical pages | July 12, 2026 |
This LECO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, industrial demand, trade policy, rates, or market sentiment change.
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