Lear Corporation research snapshot
LEA AI stock analysis reads Lear Corporation as a global automotive technology leader supplying seating and electrical distribution systems to OEMs worldwide. The July 31, 2026 close was $130.64, down 10.72% on the day after the company beat Q2 estimates and raised full-year guidance, and the calculated market capitalization was $6.44 billion. TTM revenue reached $23.70 billion with TTM net income of approximately $556 million. Lear operates through two segments, Seating and E-Systems, serving nearly every major automaker. The key question is whether Lear can convert record new business wins and improving E-Systems margins into sustained earnings growth through automotive production cyclicality, the EV transition, China weakness, and debt service. This LEA AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$130.64
Market cap
$6.44 billion calculated from the July 31, 2026 close, consistent with StockAnalysis statistics
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Established automotive seating and E-Systems supplier with a Q2 2026 earnings beat, raised full-year guidance, and strong free cash flow, offset by cyclical end-market risk, China weakness, and a sharp post-earnings sell-off
Trend status
Pulled back from the 52-week high area after a 10.72% drop on July 31, 2026, closing near $130.64, still well above the 52-week low near $91.67
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lear is a global tier-1 automotive supplier with leadership positions in seating (top global market share) and E-Systems (electrical distribution and electronics). Revenue is recurring through model-life contracts, but tied to automotive production volumes. | High |
| Moat | Scale, just-in-time delivery networks, long-term OEM relationships, manufacturing expertise, and intellectual property in seating comfort and electrical systems provide a moderate moat. OEMs can switch suppliers over model cycles, which limits pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Management delivered a Q2 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, and kept buybacks aggressive, with roughly $100 million repurchased in the quarter and about $600 million of authorization left. Capital allocation has been disciplined, though key-person risk is moderate at a large organization. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $23.70 billion with net income of about $556 million and a profit margin near 2.35%. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.28 beat consensus of $3.98 and rose 23% year over year. FY2025 revenue was flat at $23.26 billion, and the company now guides 2026 net sales of $23.54 to $24.01 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $130.64 and TTM EPS of $10.67, the trailing P/E is about 12.25x. Forward P/E near 8.27x reflects expected earnings growth. EV/EBITDA of about 5.98x and P/S of 0.27x are low, reflecting the cyclical nature and low-margin profile of auto parts. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close at $130.64 sits below the 50-day moving average near $140.11 but above the 200-day moving average near $124.49, and RSI near 37.4 is weak but not yet oversold. The stock dropped 10.72% on July 31 after a strong run toward the 52-week high of $150.33. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. Key risks include automotive production cyclicality, OEM pricing pressure, China demand weakness, EV transition uncertainty, raw material and labor costs, leverage (Debt/Equity ~0.66), and potential disruption to seating or electrical content per vehicle. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported financial data is well-sourced and cross-verified. Forecast confidence is lower because automotive volume, mix, OEM relationships, and macro conditions introduce significant variability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page supports a research process, not a buy or sell decision. Cyclical timing, EV adoption curves, OEM production schedules, China demand, and raw material trends must be evaluated individually. | Low-medium |
LEA AI stock forecast
The LEA AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the July 31, 2026 close, TTM EPS of $10.67, and explicit earnings-multiple assumptions. It is a scenario tool, not a price promise. The ranges change if automotive production, EV adoption, China demand, margins, or the market valuation changes.
$210.00 or higher
More likely if automotive production stabilizes or grows, content per vehicle increases with electrification and E-Systems adoption, E-Systems margins keep expanding, EPS compounds near 12% annually from the TTM base, and the market supports a 14x P/E multiple.
About $136.00
More likely if EPS grows near 5% annually, automotive production cycles modestly, margins stay range-bound, and the market assigns about an 11x earnings multiple reflecting cyclical sector caution.
About $78.00
More likely if global auto production contracts, China weakness persists, OEMs pressure supplier margins, the EV transition disrupts legacy content faster than new wins offset it, EPS declines near 3% annually, and the multiple contracts toward 8x.
LEA AI technical analysis
LEA AI technical analysis uses the $130.64 July 31, 2026 close and public technical snapshots. The static page cannot fetch live chart data. Support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, and volatility must be rechecked in a current chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $130.64 | Public quote snapshot at the July 31, 2026 close, down 10.72% on the day. |
| Near support | $124.00 to $129.00 | The 200-day moving average near $124.49 and the July 31 intraday low near $129.22 define the immediate support zone. A loss of this area requires a fresh chart review. |
| Near resistance | $140.00 to $146.00 | The 50-day moving average near $140.11 and the prior close near $146.33 may define resistance. A reclaim of this zone would restore the near-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | $140.11 | The price is currently below this level, which is a short-term caution signal. Confirm direction with live data. |
| 200-day moving average | $124.49 | The price remains above this longer-term trend line. A sustained break below it would be a more serious technical signal. |
| Momentum | Weakening | RSI near 37.4 after the July 31 drop suggests weak momentum approaching oversold territory, but live RSI and MACD should be checked before relying on them. |
| Volume | Elevated on the drop | Volume of about 2.07 million shares on July 31 was well above the roughly 610,000 20-day average, confirming distribution. Watch for a low-volume recovery or a high-volume break through support. |
| Volatility | Elevated | A 10.72% single-day move and a beta near 1.26 point to elevated volatility around earnings, production data, tariff news, and OEM announcements. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $124.00 | This is a framework trigger, not a guaranteed stop price. Reassess the operating thesis and live chart if the 200-day moving average is lost. |
LEA AI trading strategy
The LEA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a cyclical auto parts supplier. It is not personalized advice. Position size, loss limits, and a fresh review of live price, volume, earnings, and automotive production data should come before any action.
Wait for LEA to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $140 and hold above the $140 to $146 resistance zone on improving volume, ideally with evidence of stable automotive production and continued margin expansion.
Exit or reassess if the reclaim fails, price closes back below the 50-day moving average, or automotive production or China demand data deteriorates.
If LEA tests the $124 to $129 support zone defined by the 200-day moving average and the July 31 low, compare the price move with Q2 follow-through, OEM production schedules, and margin trajectory before treating it as a value entry.
Do not average down without a preset maximum loss and a revised thesis after earnings or industry updates, and avoid catching the knife while distribution volume is still elevated.
Track Lear's quarterly revenue, segment margins (especially E-Systems), free cash flow, debt levels, backlog wins (especially E-Systems and EV platforms), China demand, and OEM customer production schedules.
Reduce confidence when revenue or margin trends weaken without clear offsetting factors, when China weakness deepens, or when debt levels rise without proportionate free cash flow improvement.
Investment research summary
Customers (automakers) pay Lear for complete seat systems and electrical distribution components that are engineered, tested, and just-in-time delivered to assembly plants. The model depends on winning model-life contracts, manufacturing efficiency, supply chain management, and maintaining relationships with global OEMs.
Lear's moat rests on scale as one of the world's largest automotive suppliers, deep OEM relationships, just-in-time logistics capabilities, manufacturing expertise, and IP in seating comfort and electrical systems. It is moderate because automakers maintain multiple qualified suppliers and can shift production over model cycles based on cost and technology.
The thesis fails if global auto production enters a prolonged downturn, China demand keeps weakening, OEMs squeeze supplier margins further, the EV transition reduces Lear's content per vehicle faster than new wins replace it, raw material or labor costs spike, or debt service constrains strategic flexibility and capital returns.
Management delivered a Q2 2026 beat with adjusted EPS up 23% year over year, raised full-year guidance, and kept buybacks aggressive while sustaining the dividend. Since 2011 it has repurchased about 60% of shares outstanding. The key test is converting record new business wins and E-Systems margin gains into durable returns through the cycle.
Automotive is undergoing a structural shift toward electrification, software-defined vehicles, and global production realignment. Lear benefits from increasing E-Systems content per vehicle, especially electrical distribution and power management, but faces risk from uncertain EV adoption rates, China demand weakness, and OEM in-sourcing of select technologies.
The $130.64 price equals about 12.25x TTM EPS of $10.67 and roughly 7.6x TTM free cash flow per share of $17.22. The forward P/E of about 8.3x already prices in strong earnings growth. Margin of safety depends on whether Lear's backlog wins and content growth can sustain mid-cycle earnings through the next automotive cycle downturn.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $130.64 price, $6.44 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis LEA overview and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 49.32 million, down about 4.98% year over year | StockAnalysis LEA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $23.70 billion revenue, approximately $556 million net income | StockAnalysis LEA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS and trailing P/E | $10.67 EPS and about 12.25x P/E | StockAnalysis LEA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E and EV/EBITDA | About 8.27x forward P/E and 5.98x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis LEA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Q2 revenue $6.21B, reported EPS $3.79, adjusted EPS $4.28, raised full-year guidance | Lear Corporation Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.01 billion cash, total debt of $2.75 billion and Debt/Equity of 0.66 | StockAnalysis LEA statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $3.08 annual dividend per share, 2.36% forward yield | StockAnalysis LEA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range and moving averages | $91.67 to $150.33, 50-day MA $140.11, 200-day MA $124.49 | StockAnalysis LEA overview and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating, 16 analysts, average price target $151.29 | StockAnalysis LEA forecast | August 1, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell LEA. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market data, and your own risk assessment.
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